Dillard's, Inc. research snapshot
DDS AI stock analysis currently reads Dillard's as a financially strong but cyclical department-store operator. The latest available close was $588.34 on July 31, 2026, implying about $9.19 billion of market value from 15.62 million shares. Fiscal 2025 net sales were $6.474 billion and net income was $570.2 million. The first quarter of fiscal 2026 produced 3% comparable-store sales growth, a 45.8% retail gross margin, and diluted EPS of $16.04, but that EPS included a one-time pre-tax litigation settlement gain of $104.1 million. TTM EPS was $42.07 and the stock traded at about 14x that measure at the July 31 close. The DDS AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based: the business has cash, owned distribution infrastructure, family alignment, and strong free cash flow, while fashion demand, inventory risk, store productivity, special-dividend expectations, and the normalisation of earnings remain the key variables. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$588.34 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$9.19 billion calculated market cap
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative department store with family control, net cash, and a meaningful consumer-demand cycle
Trend status
Mixed short-term trend, with price above the latest 50-day moving average but below the 200-day moving average reference
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dillard's operates 272 stores and an online store, sells apparel, cosmetics, shoes, accessories, home products, and runs a small construction segment through CDI. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate: regional scale, vendor relationships, merchandise selection, owned distribution capacity, customer trust, and real-estate knowledge help, but consumers face low switching costs. | Medium |
| Management | William Dillard II has been CEO since 1998, and several family members hold senior operating and board roles. This supports long-term alignment but raises succession and key-person concentration risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income declined to $570.2 million on roughly flat sales, while Q1 FY2026 sales and comparable-store sales each grew 3%, retail gross margin improved to 45.8%, and diluted EPS rose to $16.04 from $10.39 a year earlier, helped by a one-time litigation gain. | High |
| Valuation | At $588.34, the rigor check gives about 13.99x TTM EPS, 4.54x book value, 12.18x free cash flow, and a 7.15% earnings yield before treating the $30.00 special dividend as recurring. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest available technical snapshot places the 50-day average near $567.57 and the 200-day average near $604.17, leaving DDS above the 50-day average but below the 200-day average after a recovery from its 2026 lows. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are fashion and discretionary demand, inventory markdowns, mall traffic, labor costs, family succession, special-dividend expectations, and a reversal in store-level profitability. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Forecast confidence is lower because the most recent quarterly EPS contains a material one-time litigation benefit and retail earnings are highly seasonal. | High data, medium forecast |
| Investment certainty | The balance sheet provides support, but the equity is not a low-risk bond substitute. A durable thesis needs repeatable merchandising economics and disciplined capital allocation through a weaker consumer cycle. | Medium |
DDS AI stock forecast
The DDS AI stock forecast uses $42.07 of TTM EPS, a $588.34 reference price, and a three-year earnings and multiple model. The audited model produced a bullish value near $682, a base value near $536, and a bearish value near $289 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets. Because the July 31 close sits above the base-case value, the market is already pricing in meaningful cash generation and continued special-dividend capacity, so the margin of safety is thinner than at the lower prices seen earlier in 2026.
$640 to $720
More likely if comparable-store sales remain positive, inventory stays clean, retail gross margin holds near recent levels, store productivity improves, net cash compounds, and investors assign about 14x to growing normalised EPS.
$520 to $560
More likely if sales remain broadly stable, normalised EPS grows near 2% annually, the company keeps generating free cash flow, and the market values the business near 12x earnings without capitalising special dividends as permanent income.
$260 to $320
More likely if the consumer weakens, markdowns reduce gross margin, inventories build, store closures increase, family succession becomes disruptive, or investors re-rate a declining department-store earnings base toward 8x EPS.
DDS AI technical analysis
DDS AI technical analysis is cautiously positioned as of the August 3, 2026 research cutoff. The latest close of $588.34 is above the StockAnalysis technical snapshot's 50-day average near $567.57 but below its 200-day average near $604.17. RSI was reported near 58.07 in the latest available snapshot, so momentum has improved from the spring but is not overbought. Technical figures are source-dated and can change with the next session.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $588.34 | Macrotrends closing price for July 31, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $567 to $575 | The 50-day moving average near $567.57 plus the round-number zone around $575. A sustained hold would show that buyers are defending the recovery. |
| Deeper support | $510 to $530 | A wider reset area near the lower part of the recent 2026 trading range. A break would weaken the recovery structure and point back toward the 52-week low near $452. |
| Near resistance | $604 to $610 | The latest 200-day moving average reference and the first area that price must reclaim to turn the longer-term setup positive. |
| Major resistance | $650 to $700 | A zone toward the all-time high closing price near $699.51. A reclaim would be more meaningful if supported by improving sales and volume. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $567.57, 200-day near $604.17 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot dated August 2, 2026. The 50-day average is below and the 200-day average is above the July 31 close. |
| Momentum | RSI near 58.07 | The latest available RSI is positive but below overbought levels, so the recovery is intact without being stretched. |
| Volume | About 119,000 shares average volume in the latest snapshot | A move through resistance is more credible when volume expands above the recent baseline. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.19 and retail earnings seasonality | The stock can react sharply to comparable-store sales, inventory commentary, gross margin, and capital-return decisions. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $567, then below $510 | The first level would break the 50-day moving average. The second would challenge the broader recovery and valuation case. |
DDS AI trading strategy
The DDS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price confirmation with comparable-store sales, retail gross margin, inventory, cash generation, store openings or closures, and the company’s dividend and buyback decisions.
Wait for DDS to reclaim and hold the $604 to $610 zone while a new earnings release confirms positive comparable-store sales, stable retail gross margin, and controlled inventory growth.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $567 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management reports markdown pressure or weaker traffic.
If DDS approaches $510 to $530 without a deterioration in merchandise margin, store productivity, or cash generation, compare the lower price with normalised EPS and free cash flow rather than headline quarterly EPS that includes one-time gains.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if inventory rises faster than sales or if the business needs larger promotions to protect traffic.
Track comparable-store sales, retail gross margin, inventory growth, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, store count, cash and short-term investments, debt maturities, and the difference between the $0.30 recurring quarterly dividend and special dividends.
Position sizing should reflect consumer cyclicality, thin daily trading volume, family control, and the risk that unusual legal gains or special dividends distort the apparent yield.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dillard's for curated fashion, beauty, footwear, accessories, and home merchandise delivered through regional stores and e-commerce. The economic engine is merchandise margin plus inventory turnover, not subscription revenue.
The moat comes from regional scale, vendor access, assortment judgment, distribution infrastructure, store locations, and a long operating history. It is useful but not absolute because customers can switch retailers easily and online competition is intense.
The thesis fails if the company loses relevance with shoppers, protects sales through excessive markdowns, carries too much seasonal inventory, misallocates cash, or suffers a succession problem in a family-controlled organisation.
William Dillard II has led the company since 1998, with family members in senior roles and on the board. This can support a long-term owner mindset, but investors must monitor governance, succession planning, related-party exposure, and whether capital returns preserve operating flexibility.
Department stores face a mature market, shifting consumer discovery toward digital channels, and intense competition from specialty retailers, off-price chains, marketplaces, and brands selling directly. Dillard’s regional footprint and owned infrastructure help, but they do not remove the structural pressure.
At $588.34, DDS trades at a low-teens TTM earnings multiple with net cash, but the July 31 close is above the base-case model value near $536. Margin of safety depends on using normalised earnings, treating the $104.1 million pre-tax Q1 legal gain as non-recurring, and refusing to value the $30.00 special dividend as a permanent yield.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDS quote reference | $588.34 close on July 31, 2026 | Macrotrends Dillard’s price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.19 billion calculated from $588.34 x 15.62 million shares; variance 0.00% versus the reported input | Pineify financial_rigor.py, SEC share count, and StockAnalysis shares | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 15.62 million at May 30, 2026 (Class A 11.63 million and Class B 3.99 million); 15.62 million in the latest market data snapshot | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $6.474 billion net sales and $570.2 million net income for the 52 weeks ended January 31, 2026 | Dillard’s FY2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 operating results | $1.568 billion net sales, 3% comparable-store sales growth, 45.8% retail gross margin, net income of $250.6 million, and diluted EPS of $16.04 | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 litigation settlement effect | $104.1 million pre-tax gain on litigation settlement included in Q1 results | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | $1.417 billion cash and short-term investments at May 2, 2026, with $521.7 million total debt excluding operating lease liabilities; StockAnalysis reports $555.35 million total debt and $862.05 million net cash | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $754.62 million, or $48.31 per share, in the latest StockAnalysis statement | StockAnalysis Dillard’s cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 13.99x P/E, 4.54x P/B, 12.18x P/FCF, and 7.15% earnings yield using the July 31 price | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis TTM inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day average near $567.57, 200-day average near $604.17, RSI near 58.07, beta near 1.19, and average volume near 119,000 shares in the latest source snapshot | StockAnalysis DDS statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week and historical price references | 52-week high near $741.98, 52-week low near $451.80, all-time high close near $699.51 on December 10, 2025, and a 52-week average near $595.08 | Macrotrends Dillard’s price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Store footprint and sales mix | 272 stores in Q1 FY2026; FY2025 sales mix was 96% retail operations and 4% construction, with women’s apparel at 20% and men’s apparel and accessories at 19% | Dillard’s FY2025 Form 10-K and Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Capital returns | The regular quarterly dividend is $0.30 per share; a $30.00 special dividend was declared in December 2025. Special dividends should not be treated as recurring income without confirmation. | Dillard’s investor relations and StockAnalysis dividend history | August 3, 2026 |
This DDS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if consumer demand, merchandise margins, inventory, legal items, capital returns, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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