Dillard's, Inc. research snapshot
DDS AI stock analysis currently reads Dillard's as a financially strong but cyclical department-store operator. The latest available close was $523.78 on July 10, 2026, implying about $8.18 billion of market value from 15.62 million shares. Fiscal 2025 net sales were $6.474 billion and net income was $570.2 million. The first quarter of fiscal 2026 produced 3% comparable-store sales growth and a 45.8% retail gross margin, but net income included a $79.6 million after-tax litigation settlement gain. The DDS AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based: the business has cash, owned distribution infrastructure, family alignment, and strong free cash flow, while fashion demand, inventory risk, store productivity, special-dividend expectations, and the normalisation of earnings remain the key variables. This page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$523.78 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.18 billion calculated market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
Cash-generative department store with family control, net cash, and a meaningful consumer-demand cycle
Trend status
Bearish short-term trend, with price below the latest 50-day and 200-day moving average references
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dillard's operates 272 stores and an online store, sells apparel, cosmetics, shoes, accessories, home products, and runs a small construction segment through CDI. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate: regional scale, vendor relationships, merchandise selection, owned distribution capacity, customer trust, and real-estate knowledge help, but consumers face low switching costs. | Medium |
| Management | William Dillard II has been CEO since 1998, and several family members hold senior operating and board roles. This supports long-term alignment but raises succession and key-person concentration risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 sales were broadly flat and net income declined to $570.2 million, while Q1 FY2026 sales and comparable-store sales each grew 3% and retail gross margin improved to 45.8%. | High |
| Valuation | At $523.78, the rigor check gives about 12.45x TTM EPS, 4.04x book value, 10.84x free cash flow, and an 8.03% earnings yield before treating special dividends as recurring. | High |
| Technical trend | The latest available technical snapshot places the 50-day average near $566.12 and the 200-day average near $608.41, leaving DDS below both after a sharp pullback from its 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are fashion and discretionary demand, inventory markdowns, mall traffic, labor costs, family succession, special-dividend expectations, and a reversal in store-level profitability. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Forecast confidence is lower because the most recent quarterly EPS contains a material one-time litigation benefit and retail earnings are highly seasonal. | High data, medium forecast |
| Investment certainty | The balance sheet provides support, but the equity is not a low-risk bond substitute. A durable thesis needs repeatable merchandising economics and disciplined capital allocation through a weaker consumer cycle. | Medium |
DDS AI stock forecast
The DDS AI stock forecast uses $42.06 of TTM EPS, a $523.78 reference price, and a three-year earnings and multiple model. The audited model produced a bullish value near $847.70, a base value near $551.50, and a bearish value near $288.50 before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets, and the base case is close to the current price because the market already discounts a meaningful level of cash generation.
$800 to $900
More likely if comparable-store sales remain positive, inventory stays clean, retail gross margin holds near recent levels, store productivity improves, net cash compounds, and investors assign about 16x to growing normalised EPS.
$525 to $575
More likely if sales remain broadly stable, normalised EPS grows near 3% annually, the company keeps generating free cash flow, and the market values the business near 12x earnings without capitalising special dividends as permanent income.
$260 to $320
More likely if the consumer weakens, markdowns reduce gross margin, inventories build, store closures increase, family succession becomes disruptive, or investors re-rate a declining department-store earnings base toward 8x EPS.
DDS AI technical analysis
DDS AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 research cutoff. The latest close of $523.78 is below the StockAnalysis technical snapshot's 50-day average near $566.12 and 200-day average near $608.41. RSI was reported near neutral at 50.99 in the latest available snapshot, so the decline is not automatically an oversold reversal. Technical figures are source-dated and can change with the next session.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $523.78 | Macrotrends closing price for July 10, 2026, the latest completed trading session before the data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $500 to $525 | A round-number and recent trading zone. A sustained hold would show that buyers are defending the post-earnings pullback. |
| Deeper support | $425 to $465 | A wider reset area near the lower part of the recent 52-week range. A break would weaken the longer recovery structure. |
| Near resistance | $565 to $580 | The latest 50-day moving average references and the first area that price must reclaim to improve the short-term setup. |
| Major resistance | $600 to $610 | The latest 200-day moving average area. A reclaim would be more meaningful if supported by improving sales and volume. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $566.12, 200-day near $608.41 | StockAnalysis technical snapshot dated July 9, 2026. Both averages are above the July 10 close. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.99 | The latest available RSI is close to neutral, so a single rebound does not confirm a trend reversal. |
| Volume | About 120,000 shares average volume in the latest snapshot | A move through resistance is more credible when volume expands above the recent baseline. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.17 and retail earnings seasonality | The stock can react sharply to comparable-store sales, inventory commentary, gross margin, and capital-return decisions. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $500, then below $425 | The first level weakens the short-term support thesis. The second would challenge the broader recovery and valuation case. |
DDS AI trading strategy
The DDS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price confirmation with comparable-store sales, retail gross margin, inventory, cash generation, store openings or closures, and the company’s dividend and buyback decisions.
Wait for DDS to reclaim the $565 to $580 zone and hold it while a new earnings release confirms positive comparable-store sales, stable retail gross margin, and controlled inventory growth.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $500 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management reports markdown pressure or weaker traffic.
If DDS approaches $425 to $465 without a deterioration in merchandise margin, store productivity, or cash generation, compare the lower price with normalised EPS and free cash flow rather than headline quarterly EPS.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if inventory rises faster than sales or if the business needs larger promotions to protect traffic.
Track comparable-store sales, retail gross margin, inventory growth, operating cash flow, capital expenditures, store count, cash and short-term investments, debt maturities, and recurring versus special dividends.
Position sizing should reflect consumer cyclicality, thin daily trading volume, family control, and the risk that unusual legal gains or special dividends distort the apparent yield.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dillard's for curated fashion, beauty, footwear, accessories, and home merchandise delivered through regional stores and e-commerce. The economic engine is merchandise margin plus inventory turnover, not subscription revenue.
The moat comes from regional scale, vendor access, assortment judgment, distribution infrastructure, store locations, and a long operating history. It is useful but not absolute because customers can switch retailers easily and online competition is intense.
The thesis fails if the company loses relevance with shoppers, protects sales through excessive markdowns, carries too much seasonal inventory, misallocates cash, or suffers a succession problem in a family-controlled organisation.
William Dillard II has led the company since 1998, with family members in senior roles and on the board. This can support a long-term owner mindset, but investors must monitor governance, succession planning, related-party exposure, and whether capital returns preserve operating flexibility.
Department stores face a mature market, shifting consumer discovery toward digital channels, and intense competition from specialty retailers, off-price chains, marketplaces, and brands selling directly. Dillard’s regional footprint and owned infrastructure help, but they do not remove the structural pressure.
At $523.78, DDS is below its recent peak and trades at a low-teens TTM earnings multiple with net cash. Margin of safety depends on using normalised earnings, treating the $79.6 million after-tax Q1 legal gain as non-recurring, and refusing to value special dividends as a permanent yield.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDS quote reference | $523.78 close on July 10, 2026 | Macrotrends Dillard’s price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $8.18 billion calculated from $523.78 x 15.62 million shares; variance 0.01% versus the reported input | Pineify financial_rigor.py, SEC share count, and StockAnalysis shares | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 15.6 million at January 31, 2026; 15.62 million in the latest market data snapshot | Dillard’s FY2025 results and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $6.474 billion net sales and $570.2 million net income for the 52 weeks ended January 31, 2026 | Dillard’s FY2025 results and StockAnalysis income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 operating results | $1.568 billion net sales, 3% comparable-store sales growth, and 45.8% retail gross margin | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q and earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 legal settlement effect | $79.6 million after-tax gain, or $5.10 per share, included in Q1 net income | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, investments, and debt | $1.418 billion cash and short-term investments and $521.7 million total debt at May 2, 2026 | Dillard’s Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $754.62 million, or $48.33 per share, in the latest StockAnalysis statement | StockAnalysis Dillard’s cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 12.45x P/E, 4.04x P/B, 10.84x P/FCF, and 8.03% earnings yield using the July 10 price | Pineify financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis TTM inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day average near $566.12, 200-day average near $608.41, RSI near 50.99, and average volume near 120,000 shares in the latest source snapshot | StockAnalysis DDS statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Store footprint and sales mix | 272 stores in Q1 FY2026; FY2025 sales mix was 96% retail operations and 4% construction, with women’s apparel at 20% and men’s apparel and accessories at 19% | Dillard’s FY2025 Form 10-K and Q1 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Capital returns | The latest regular quarterly dividend was $0.30 per share; special dividends have occurred and should not be treated as recurring income without confirmation | Dillard’s investor relations and StockAnalysis dividend history | July 12, 2026 |
This DDS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if consumer demand, merchandise margins, inventory, legal items, capital returns, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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