Darling Ingredients Inc. research snapshot
DAR AI stock analysis currently reads Darling Ingredients as a scaled circular-economy platform that turns animal by-products, used cooking oil, and food residuals into feed, food, collagen, renewable fuel, and bioenergy products. The first quarter of 2026 showed a sharp earnings recovery, with $1.55 billion of sales, $134.3 million of net income attributable to Darling, and $406.8 million of combined Adjusted EBITDA. The caution is that fiscal 2025 net income attributable to Darling was only $62.8 million, total debt was about $4.1 billion in the latest quarter, and results remain sensitive to commodity prices and renewable-fuel policy. At the July 10, 2026 close near $60.83, the DAR AI stock forecast is a scenario exercise, not a price promise. This page is informational research and is not investment advice.
Current price
$60.83
Market cap
$9.67 billion verified market cap
AI score
67 / 100
Rating
Scaled circular-economy platform with recovering fuel earnings, durable feed and collagen assets, and material leverage
Trend status
Constructive but extended, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 58
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Darling collects and processes difficult-to-handle biological and food residual streams into products used in feed, food, health, fuel, and fertilizer markets. The platform has scale, but many end products are commodity-linked. | High |
| Moat | The moat is moderate to strong in local collection density, permits, plant network, logistics, customer relationships, and operating know-how. It is weaker where products compete directly with fats, proteins, oils, and other commodities. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Randall Stuewe has led the company since 2003 and built a global platform through acquisitions, processing expansion, and the Diamond Green Diesel joint venture. Capital allocation now needs to prioritize debt reduction and returns on invested capital. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 7.4% to $6.14 billion, but net income attributable to Darling fell 77.5% to $62.8 million. Q1 2026 then showed a recovery with sales up 12.3% and combined Adjusted EBITDA up 107.8% year over year. | High |
| Valuation | At $60.83, DAR is about 44.08x trailing EPS, 17.53x trailing free cash flow per share, and 1.98x book value per share using the verified inputs. The forward multiple is much lower only if the expected earnings recovery arrives. | High |
| Technical trend | DAR is above the 50-day moving average near $59.02 and the 200-day average near $46.92. RSI near 58.29 is constructive but not extreme, while the stock remains close to its 52-week high of $66.02. | Medium |
| Risk level | The main risks are lower fat, protein, collagen, or renewable-fuel prices, policy changes, DGD operating problems, high debt, weak feedstock volumes, disease outbreaks, tariffs, foreign exchange, and execution risk in new capacity. | High |
| AI confidence | The descriptive data confidence is high, but the forecast confidence is medium because 2026 earnings include a large recovery from a depressed 2025 base and depend on policy and commodity assumptions. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Darling may be a strong platform in a favorable circular-economy and renewable-fuel environment, but the investment case is not simple. Debt paydown, normalized DGD margins, and durable core pricing must confirm the recovery. | Medium-low |
DAR AI stock forecast
The DAR AI stock forecast uses a three-year sensitivity model around the $60.83 quote and a FY2026 consensus EPS reference of $4.62. Using 15%, 8%, and negative 5% annual EPS paths with 18x, 14x, and 10x exit multiples produced mechanical values near $126.50, $81.50, and $39.60. These are scenario outputs, not guaranteed targets.
$110 to $135
More likely if the Q1 recovery persists, core ingredients EBITDA stays strong, DGD earns attractive margins, renewable-fuel obligations remain supportive, collagen growth continues, and debt falls toward the investor-day goal of below $3 billion.
$70 to $90
More likely if FY2026 earnings recover as expected, core pricing remains healthy, DGD improves without reaching peak-cycle margins, capital spending stays controlled, and the market assigns a mid-teens multiple to normalized EPS.
$35 to $50
More likely if renewable-fuel credits or mandates weaken, DGD margins fall, fat and protein prices reset, feedstock volumes decline, interest costs stay high, or leverage limits investment and shareholder returns.
DAR AI technical analysis
DAR AI technical analysis is constructive as of the July 10, 2026 cutoff. The $60.83 close is above the 50-day average near $59.02 and the 200-day average near $46.92. RSI near 58.29 shows positive momentum without an extreme reading, but the stock is still close to the $66.02 52-week high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $60.83 | July 10, 2026 close from StockAnalysis. Use this as the quote reference for the page, not as a live price. |
| Immediate support | $57 to $59 | The recent breakout and 50-day moving average area. Holding this zone would preserve the short-term constructive trend. |
| Secondary support | $50 to $53 | A deeper pullback zone around recent consolidation. A return here would require checking whether the earnings recovery remains intact. |
| Long-term support | $46 to $48 | The 200-day moving average area near $46.92. A sustained loss of this zone would weaken the medium-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $62 to $66 | The upper trading area and 52-week high near $66.02. A breakout needs volume and fundamental confirmation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $59.02, 200-day $46.92 | StockAnalysis technical references last updated July 8, 2026, used within the July 10 research cutoff. |
| Momentum | RSI 58.29 | Momentum is positive but not overbought by this measure. A falling RSI with a loss of $59 would reduce trend confidence. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 2.45 million shares | A move through $66 or below $57 is more meaningful if volume expands relative to this average. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.04 | DAR has market-like historical beta, but earnings, policy announcements, commodity prices, and leverage can create larger company-specific moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $46.92 | A durable break below the 200-day average would challenge the recovery setup and shift attention to debt, policy, and commodity downside. |
DAR AI trading strategy
The DAR AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price levels with DGD margins, core ingredients EBITDA, renewable-fuel policy, debt reduction, and commodity indicators.
Look for DAR to hold the $57 to $59 support band and clear $62 to $66 with above-average volume while Q2 results, DGD margins, and core EBITDA remain constructive.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $57 should reduce setup confidence, especially if fuel credits, fat prices, or leverage commentary also deteriorate.
If DAR pulls back toward $50 to $53 without a new fundamental shock, compare the price with normalized EPS, free cash flow, net leverage, DGD economics, and the three-scenario range.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if the decline reflects a structural policy change, weak feedstock volumes, or a prolonged fuel-margin reset.
Track feed, food, and fuel segment EBITDA, DGD gallons and EBITDA per gallon, fat and protein prices, used cooking oil volumes, collagen demand, cash flow, capex, debt, covenant leverage, and renewable-fuel rules.
Keep risk limits explicit because DAR combines commodity exposure, joint-venture risk, international operations, and a balance sheet that management wants to delever.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Darling to collect, process, and upgrade residual biological materials that would otherwise have lower value or disposal costs. The company monetizes collection density, processing assets, product know-how, and customer access across feed, food, health, fuel, and fertilizer markets.
The moat comes from local collection routes, permits, plant network, logistics, scale, product specifications, and long customer relationships. More than a simple brand, it is a physical network that is costly to rebuild. Commodity prices still limit pricing power, and the moat can weaken if feedstock access or regulation changes.
The thesis fails if DGD remains a weak or capital-hungry joint venture, renewable-fuel policy reduces product value, fat and protein prices fall, meat production reduces feedstock, collagen expansion earns poor returns, or debt absorbs the cash that should fund growth and shareholder returns.
Randall Stuewe has led Darling since 2003 and built a global platform through acquisitions, international expansion, and the DGD joint venture. The 2026 investor-day priorities of portfolio optimization, debt below $3 billion, and leverage below 2.5x are useful tests of capital allocation. Key-person risk is moderate because the network and operating systems are institutional, but the acquisition history and capital intensity deserve scrutiny.
Circular use of food and animal residuals, collagen demand, renewable diesel, sustainable aviation fuel, and low-carbon fuel standards are long-term tailwinds. This is a real transition in resource use, but policy support, commodity substitutes, technology choices, and energy prices determine how much value reaches shareholders. In a 20-year view, Darling could become infrastructure for the circular bioeconomy, but it is not insulated from cycles.
The current price looks expensive on depressed trailing EPS and more reasonable on a successful earnings rebound. The margin of safety depends on normalized earnings rather than the 2025 trough. A safer setup would combine debt reduction, durable core margins, and DGD cash generation with a price that does not already assume peak policy support.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAR quote reference | $60.83 at the July 10, 2026 close | StockAnalysis market data | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.67 billion calculated from $60.83 x 158.93 million shares, compared with the reported $9.67 billion market cap, 0.02% variance | StockAnalysis and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $6.136 billion and net income attributable to Darling $62.8 million. Revenue matched StockAnalysis and Macrotrends within 0.01%; net income sources were within 0.31%. | Darling FY2025 Form 10-K, StockAnalysis, and Macrotrends | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | Total net sales $1.551 billion, up 12.3% year over year; net income attributable to Darling $134.3 million; combined Adjusted EBITDA $406.8 million, up from $195.8 million. | Darling Q1 2026 results release | April 30, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and leverage | $116.0 million cash, $1.1 billion available revolver capacity, about $4.1 billion total debt, and preliminary bank-covenant leverage of 3.17x as of April 4, 2026. | Darling Q1 2026 results release | April 30, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital intensity | FY2025 free cash flow $679.24 million on StockAnalysis standardized data; Q1 2026 capital expenditures were $94.8 million and full-year 2026 capex was estimated at about $400 million by management. | StockAnalysis cash flow data and Darling Q1 2026 release | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 44.08x trailing PE, 17.53x price to free cash flow, 1.98x price to book, 4.50% EPS to book-value return proxy, and 0.00% dividend yield from the verified $60.83 price inputs. | Pineify financial_rigor.py valuation check using StockAnalysis inputs | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2026 earnings reference | StockAnalysis consensus reference: revenue about $6.74 billion and EPS about $4.62 for FY2026. The large EPS rebound is an estimate, not reported history. | StockAnalysis forecast data | July 2, 2026 |
| Investor-day capital priorities | Management presented a goal of reducing debt below $3 billion and leverage below 2.5x, with potential to generate $4 billion to $6 billion of cash in the next five years under its scenarios. | Darling 2026 Investor Day presentation filed with the SEC | May 11, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average $59.02, 200-day moving average $46.92, RSI 58.29, beta 1.04, 20-day average volume 2.45 million shares, and 52-week range $29.15 to $66.02. | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This DAR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 10, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, commodity prices, renewable-fuel policy, leverage, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
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