Dana Incorporated research snapshot
DAN AI stock analysis currently reads Dana Incorporated as an auto parts supplier at a critical inflection point. The July 12, 2026 data cutoff shows a company generating $7.59 billion in trailing revenue and $578 million in levered free cash flow, but reporting a GAAP net loss of $67 million over the trailing twelve months. The stock closed at $27.33 on July 10, giving it a $2.94 billion market cap and a 0.45x price-to-sales ratio. The biggest catalyst is Dana agreement to combine with Eaton Mobility, a deal that RBC called transformative and that reshapes Dana toward higher-margin commercial vehicle and aftermarket exposure. Pro forma, the combined entity would have roughly $11.8 billion in revenue and $1.3 billion in EBITDA. The stock fell about 24% on the deal announcement due to acquisition financing, integration complexity, and dilution concerns. The DAN AI stock forecast is scenario-based: the forward P/E of 11.93x and free cash flow yield near 20% make the math interesting if the merger delivers, but balance-sheet leverage, auto production cycles, and execution risk keep the outcome uncertain.
Current price
$27.33
Market cap
$2.94B verified market cap using 107.6M shares at $27.33
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Auto parts supplier navigating a transformational Eaton Mobility merger with low valuation, negative GAAP earnings, and high leverage
Trend status
Recovering from a post-merger-announcement selloff, trading well below the 52-week high of $39.56 but above the 52-week low of $15.31
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dana sells axles, driveshafts, transmissions, thermal management, sealing, and e-propulsion systems to light-vehicle, commercial-vehicle, and off-highway OEMs globally. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing OEM relationships, engineering qualification cycles, scale in niche driveline components, and aftermarket parts distribution. It narrows if OEMs internalize or if EV transition changes driveline architecture. | Low-medium |
| Management | CEO James Kamsickas has led Dana since 2015 through a restructuring, EV transition investments, and now the Eaton Mobility combination. The test is whether he can finance, integrate, and deliver the expected deal synergies. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue has been roughly flat to declining: Q1 2026 revenue was $1.9 billion. TTM net income is negative at -$67 million, though levered free cash flow of $578 million shows underlying cash generation. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $27.33, trailing metrics are negative, but forward P/E is 11.93x, P/S is 0.45x, P/B is 1.50x, EV/EBITDA is 7.75x, and levered FCF yield is about 19.7%. A 0.45x revenue multiple is cheap for auto parts. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock sold off sharply after the June 2026 merger announcement. The recent recovery from the low $20s toward $27 is encouraging but still far below the $39.56 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Eaton Mobility deal financing, antitrust clearance, integration execution, auto production volumes, EV transition, commodity costs, leverage, and the cyclical nature of light and commercial vehicle demand. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is medium-high for current financials. Confidence is lower for forward estimates because the merger structure, financing terms, and pro forma earnings power are still being assessed by the market. | Medium-high data, low-medium forward |
| Investment certainty | DAN is a cheap stock with a free cash flow yield near 20%, but the GAAP loss, leverage, and transformational merger risk mean the cheapness is a function of uncertainty rather than a guaranteed bargain. | Low-medium |
DAN AI stock forecast
The DAN AI stock forecast uses the $27.33 price reference, forward EPS of roughly $2.29 (implied by the 11.93x forward P/E), and a three-year earnings multiple model. The audited model produced a bullish value near $52.20, a base value near $34.60, and a bearish value near $18.30 before dividends. These ranges reflect low current valuation plus high deal and cycle uncertainty.
$45 to $55
More likely if the Eaton Mobility deal closes on favorable terms, pro forma synergies of $200M+ are achieved, commercial vehicle and aftermarket margins improve, and the market re-rates the combined company toward 13-15x forward earnings.
$32 to $38
More likely if the merger closes but integration is slower than expected, end-market demand for light vehicles stays soft, and the market values the combined company near 12x forward EPS with modest growth.
$16 to $22
More likely if the Eaton deal faces antitrust challenges or expensive financing, auto production drops, commercial vehicle orders slow, commodity costs pressure margins, or leverage becomes a covenant concern.
DAN AI technical analysis
DAN AI technical analysis uses market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $27.33 on July 10 after recovering from the post-merger-announcement selloff that drove the price into the low $20s. Yahoo Finance showed a 52-week range of $15.31 to $39.56. Beta is 1.97, meaning the stock moves nearly twice as much as the broader market daily. The key technical story is whether the recovery from the low $20s can extend toward the $32-$35 zone where selling pressure may emerge.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.33 | July 10, 2026 close from Yahoo Finance, used for market-cap and valuation verification. |
| Post-deal low | $21 to $22 | The stock dropped to this area after the Eaton Mobility deal was announced, reflecting financing and dilution concerns. |
| Near support | $24 to $26 | Buyers have defended this range during the recovery. A break below $24 would test the post-deal lows. |
| Near resistance | $28 to $30 | The stock stalled near this zone on the recovery. A clean break above $30 would signal stronger buying interest. |
| Major resistance | $32 to $35 | Pre-deal trading range and the area before the selloff. This zone is likely to attract sellers without positive merger news. |
| 52-week high | $39.56 | The pre-merger-announcement high represents the top of the prior range before the transformational deal reset expectations. |
| Moving averages | 50-day and 200-day need recalculation after the gap down | The sharp selloff likely put the stock well below both key moving averages. The recovery needs to recapture these for trend confirmation. |
| Momentum | Recovering from oversold after the deal gap | The bounce from the low $20s shows initial recovery momentum, but follow-through is needed to confirm a trend change. |
| Volume | 1.34 million shares on July 10 vs 1.47 million average | Volume was slightly below average on the recent up day, which leaves some doubt about buying conviction at current levels. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24 | A sustained break below $24 would suggest the recovery has failed and open a retest of the post-deal low near $21. |
DAN AI trading strategy
The DAN AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Eaton Mobility deal progress, auto production volumes, commercial vehicle demand, free cash flow, leverage ratios, and industry cycle indicators.
Watch for Dana to provide detailed pro forma merger financials, financing terms, and synergy targets. Positive deal clarity with manageable leverage could trigger a re-rating toward base-case valuations.
If the merger faces regulatory pushback, financing costs spike, or integration complexity forces a guidance cut, reduce position sizing and monitor the $24 support level.
At 0.45x sales and 7.75x EV/EBITDA, DAN is priced for distress rather than a going concern. Compare the entry price with free cash flow yield and sum-of-parts analysis of Dana standalone plus Eaton Mobility contribution.
Do not treat low multiples as automatic bargains. The cheapness reflects real risks: negative GAAP earnings, leverage, deal execution, and cyclical end-markets.
Track Eaton Mobility deal closing timeline, financing terms, synergy targets, pro forma leverage, light vehicle and commercial vehicle production forecasts, Dana free cash flow, and segment margin trends.
Position sizing should reflect that DAN is a cyclical auto parts company undergoing a transformational merger, not a stable compounder. The 1.97 beta means double the market moves.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dana for driveline components, thermal management, sealing, and e-propulsion systems that go into light vehicles, commercial trucks, and off-highway equipment. The business is strongest when global vehicle production is stable or growing.
Dana moat comes from decades of OEM relationships, engineering qualifications, aftermarket brand recognition, and scale manufacturing in axles, driveshafts, and thermal products. The moat is moderate because customers can design around suppliers over time.
The thesis fails if the Eaton Mobility deal over-leverages Dana, integration disrupts operations, synergies fail to materialize, auto demand enters a prolonged downturn, or the EV transition further disrupts Dana traditional driveline product lines.
James Kamsickas has run Dana since 2015, navigating restructuring, EV investments, and now the transformational Eaton Mobility deal. The key test is whether management can execute the merger while maintaining existing customer relationships and operational performance.
Auto parts suppliers face a complex environment: uncertain EV adoption timelines, potential tariff impacts on cross-border supply chains, software-defined vehicles, and production cyclicality. Aftermarket and commercial vehicle segments offer some stability versus light vehicle OEM volatility.
At $27.33 with 0.45x sales and 7.75x EV/EBITDA, Dana trades well below historical multiples. The margin of safety depends on the Eaton Mobility deal closing on favorable terms without excessive dilution or leverage. Without the deal, standalone value may justify a higher valuation based on FCF yield.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAN quote reference | $27.33 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance DAN summary quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.94 billion calculated from $27.33 x 107.6 million shares; reported at $2.94 billion | Yahoo Finance and Pineify financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 107.6 million shares | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $7.59 billion trailing revenue | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Net income (TTM) | -$67 million GAAP net loss to common | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | -$0.54 diluted EPS | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 11.93x forward PE, implying roughly $2.29 forward EPS | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $477 million total cash; debt/equity ratio of 76.22% | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $578 million levered free cash flow; $5.37 FCF per share | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | P/S 0.45x, P/B 1.50x, EV/EBITDA 7.75x, EV/Revenue 0.53x | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.48 annual dividend, 1.76% yield | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical references | 52-week range $15.31 - $39.56, beta 1.97, average volume 1.47 million | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Mean 1-year price target $37.57; UBS maintains Buy, lowered PT 42->39 on July 9, 2026 | Yahoo Finance analysis | July 12, 2026 |
This DAN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if Dana execution, the Eaton Mobility deal outcome, auto production cycles, commodity costs, leverage, or market valuation changes.
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