Dana Incorporated research snapshot
DAN AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Dana Incorporated as a cyclical auto parts supplier at the center of a transformational Reverse Morris Trust combination with Eaton Mobility. The stock traded at $27.60 on August 3, 2026 at 3:16 PM EDT, up 0.67 or 2.49% from the $26.93 close on July 31, within a session range of $26.71 to $27.75, carrying a market capitalization near $2.97 billion, implied by the $27.60 price times 107.57 million shares outstanding. The June 11, 2026 merger announcement values Eaton Mobility at about $5.1 billion and creates a combined company with roughly $11 billion in estimated 2026 sales and about $1.7 billion in adjusted EBITDA, around a 15% margin, with a committed $250 million of run-rate cost synergies within 24 months of closing. Reported trailing twelve month net income of about $1.15 billion, EPS of $9.19, and a trailing PE of 3.00 are misleading because they include a large one-time tax benefit: pretax income for the TTM was only about $26 million. The recurring earnings picture is the adjusted one: Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $171 million at a 9.2% margin, up 400 basis points, with 2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $2.50 and the FY2026 consensus near $2.44, putting the forward PE near 10.3 to 11.3 times. The stock sits above its 20-day moving average near $26.90 but below the 50-day near $29.95 and the 200-day near $28.97, with 14-day RSI near 44.25.
Current price
$27.60 at the August 3, 2026, 3:16 PM EDT reading, up 0.67 or 2.49% from the $26.93 July 31 close, within a session range of $26.71 to $27.75 after opening at $26.71
Market cap
$2.97 billion implied by the $27.60 price times 107.57 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com market cap, with enterprise value near $3.96 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Improving cyclical auto supplier inside a transformational Eaton Mobility merger, with a low valuation, one-time-tax-inflated reported earnings, and high execution risk
Trend status
Recovering from the post-merger-announcement selloff near the July low of $24.60, now above the 20-day moving average near $26.90 but still below the 50-day near $29.95 and the 200-day near $28.97
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Dana sells axles, driveshafts, transmissions, thermal management, sealing, and e-propulsion systems to light-vehicle, commercial-vehicle, and off-highway OEMs globally, with TTM revenue near $7.59 billion split about $5.27 billion light vehicle and $2.31 billion commercial vehicle. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing OEM relationships, engineering qualification cycles, scale in axles, driveshafts, and sealing, and an aftermarket distribution network. It narrows if OEMs internalize, if the EV transition changes driveline architecture, or if the Eaton Mobility integration disrupts existing customer programs. | Low-medium |
| Management | Byron Foster became CEO on July 1, 2026 after Bruce McDonald moved to Executive Chairman, with Tim Kraus staying as CFO. Q1 2026 delivered a 400 basis point adjusted EBITDA margin gain, a $950 million net new sales backlog including the Ram Dakota award, $125 million of buybacks, and a $65 million 2026 cost reduction track. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue turned positive again: Q1 2026 sales rose to $1.868 billion from $1.781 billion, adjusted EBITDA hit $171 million at a 9.2% margin, and total debt fell to about $1.54 billion from $3.52 billion at the end of 2025. Reported TTM net income of about $1.15 billion is inflated by a one-time tax benefit and should not be read as recurring. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $27.60, the trailing PE of about 3.00 is meaningless because reported EPS is distorted by a one-time tax benefit. The forward PE near 10.3 on the statistics page and about 11.3 implied by the FY2026 consensus of $2.44, PS near 0.38, PB near 1.50, P/FCF near 20.04, and EV/EBITDA near 6.86 are the more relevant gauges, and they are low for auto parts with the merger upside and execution risk both priced in. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock is recovering from the July low near $24.60 and now trades above the 20-day moving average near $26.90, but remains below the 50-day near $29.95 and the 200-day near $28.97, so the medium-term trend is still down until those averages are reclaimed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are Eaton Mobility deal financing, antitrust and regulatory clearance, integration execution, the temporarily suspended buyback, auto production volumes, EV transition, tariffs, commodity costs, leverage near $1.54 billion, and the cyclical nature of light and commercial vehicle demand. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for current financials, quote data, deal terms, and analyst targets that cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, the Dana Q1 2026 release and call, and the June 11, 2026 merger announcement. Lower for forward estimates because the merger structure, financing, antitrust outcome, and pro forma earnings power are still being assessed. | High data, low-medium forward |
| Investment certainty | DAN is a cheap cyclical with improving margins and a much lighter balance sheet, but the reported earnings quality is distorted by a one-time tax benefit and the Eaton Mobility deal carries real financing and integration risk, so the cheapness reflects uncertainty rather than a guaranteed bargain. | Low-medium |
DAN AI stock forecast
The DAN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $27.60 August 3, 2026 reading and the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $2.44. A three-year scenario framework with adjusted EPS growth of 20%, 10%, and 0% and exit multiples of 14x, 10x, and 7x produced a bullish area near $59, a base area near $32.50, and a bearish area near $17.10 before dividends. These are scenarios, not price commitments, and they depend on the Eaton Mobility deal closing, integration, synergies, and the auto cycle.
$52 to $62
More likely if the Eaton Mobility deal closes on schedule in early 2027, the $250 million of committed synergies are delivered, commercial vehicle and aftermarket margins improve, and the combined company is re-rated toward 13 to 14 times forward earnings on the raised $14 billion to $15 billion 2030 sales target.
$30 to $38
More likely if the merger closes but integration is slower than planned, light vehicle demand stays soft, the auto cycle stays flat to weak, and the market holds the combined company near 9 to 11 times forward EPS with modest growth.
$15 to $20
More likely if the Eaton deal faces antitrust challenges, financing costs spike, integration disrupts operations, the buyback suspension lasts longer than expected, auto production drops, or the market compresses the multiple toward 7 times on flat earnings.
DAN AI technical analysis
DAN AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 4, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $26.93 on July 31 and traded at $27.60 on August 3, 2026 at 3:16 PM EDT, recovering from the post-merger-announcement selloff that drove the price to an intraday low near $24.60 on July 2. StockAnalysis.com shows a 52-week range of $15.31 to $39.56, a 50-day moving average near $29.95, a 200-day moving average near $28.97, and a 14-day RSI near 44.25. The 5-day moving average computed from the daily close history is near $27.08 and the 20-day moving average is near $26.90, so the stock has moved back above its short-term averages but still sits below the medium and long-term trend lines.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.60 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 3:16 PM EDT reading, up 0.67 or 2.49% from the $26.93 July 31 close within a session range of $26.71 to $27.75 after opening at $26.71. |
| 5-day moving average | $27.08 | Computed as the simple average of the five closing prices through July 31, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, just below the current price and signaling short-term momentum has turned positive. |
| 20-day moving average | $26.90 | Computed as the simple average of the twenty closing prices through July 31, 2026 in the StockAnalysis.com daily price history, now acting as first support for pullbacks. |
| Near support | $26 to $27 | The $26.90 20-day moving average and the recent consolidation range from $26 to $28 form the first support zone that buyers defended in late July. |
| Next support | $24.60 to $25.50 | The July 2 intraday low near $24.60 and the July 8 close near $25.58 mark the post-deal floor; a move back into this area would signal the recovery is under pressure. |
| Near resistance | $28.04 to $29.95 | The July 22 high near $28.04, then the 200-day moving average near $28.97 and the 50-day moving average near $29.95, create the next overhead band before the $30 round number. |
| Major resistance | $30 to $32 | The $30 to $32 zone was the immediate post-announcement range and will attract sellers without positive merger or earnings news. |
| 50-day moving average | $29.95 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $29.95 on August 3, 2026, above the current price and a key trend barrier. |
| 200-day moving average | $28.97 | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 200-day moving average near $28.97 on August 3, 2026, above the current price and confirming the longer-term trend is still down until reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI near 44.25 | The 14-day RSI was near 44.25 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral and neither oversold nor overbought after the recovery off the July low. |
| Volume | About 1.31 million average shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 1,313,203 shares on August 3, 2026, with the July 31 close at 1.18 million shares, so recent buying has been modest. |
| Volatility | High, beta near 1.99 | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed a 5-year beta near 1.99 on August 3, 2026, so the stock moves about twice as much as the market and position sizing should account for large swings around earnings and merger news. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24.60 | A sustained break below the July 2 low near $24.60 would suggest the recovery has failed and open a retest of the post-deal breakdown toward the low $20s. |
DAN AI trading strategy
The DAN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with Eaton Mobility deal progress, the August 6, 2026 Q2 report, auto production volumes, commercial vehicle demand, adjusted free cash flow, leverage, and buyback status.
Watch for the August 6, 2026 Q2 earnings report and for Dana to provide detailed pro forma merger financials, financing terms, antitrust progress, and synergy targets. Positive deal clarity with manageable leverage and an in-line Q2 could trigger a move toward the $28.04 to $29.95 resistance band and then the $30 to $32 zone.
If the Q2 report misses, merger financing costs spike, antitrust review stalls, or integration complexity forces a guidance cut, reduce position sizing and monitor the $26.90 20-day moving average and then the $24.60 July low.
At a forward PE near 10.3 to 11.3, PS near 0.38, and EV/EBITDA near 6.86, DAN is priced below the market average for auto parts. Compare the entry price with adjusted EPS guidance of about $2.50, adjusted free cash flow near $300 million for 2026, and the combined company value of about $11 billion in sales with a $250 million synergy commitment.
Do not treat low multiples as automatic bargains because the cheapness reflects real risks: one-time-tax-inflated reported earnings, the Eaton deal, the suspended buyback, leverage near $1.54 billion, tariffs, and cyclical end-markets.
Track the Eaton Mobility deal closing timeline, financing terms, antitrust and regulatory approvals, the $250 million synergy ramp, pro forma leverage near 1.2x, light vehicle and commercial vehicle production forecasts, adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted free cash flow, and the buyback restart timeline after the 24-month post-close restriction.
Position sizing should reflect that DAN is a high-beta cyclical auto parts company (beta near 1.99) undergoing a transformational merger, not a stable compounder, and that reported earnings quality is distorted by one-time items.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Dana for driveline components, thermal management, sealing, and e-propulsion systems that go into light vehicles, commercial trucks, and off-highway equipment. The business is strongest when global vehicle production is stable or growing, with about $5.27 billion of TTM light vehicle sales and $2.31 billion of commercial vehicle sales.
Dana moat comes from decades of OEM relationships, engineering qualifications, aftermarket brand recognition, and scale manufacturing in axles, driveshafts, and thermal products. The moat is moderate because customers can design around suppliers over time, and the Eaton Mobility integration adds both scale and integration risk.
The thesis fails if the Eaton Mobility deal over-leverages Dana or stalls in antitrust review, integration disrupts operations, the $250 million synergy commitment proves too aggressive, auto demand enters a prolonged downturn, tariffs or commodity costs pressure margins, or the buyback suspension and dilution from the Reverse Morris Trust structure erode per share value.
Byron Foster became CEO on July 1, 2026 after Bruce McDonald moved to Executive Chairman, with Tim Kraus staying as CFO. The new team inherits a strong Q1: a 400 basis point adjusted EBITDA margin gain to 9.2%, a $950 million backlog including the Ram Dakota award, $125 million of Q1 buybacks, and a 2026 cost reduction track of $65 million.
Auto parts suppliers face uncertain EV adoption timelines, potential tariff impacts on cross-border supply chains, software-defined vehicles, and production cyclicality. Aftermarket and commercial vehicle segments offer some stability, and the Eaton Mobility combination roughly doubles the aftermarket business to about $1.7 billion while raising the 2030 sales target to $14 billion to $15 billion.
At $27.60 with a forward PE near 10.3 to 11.3, PS near 0.38, and EV/EBITDA near 6.86, Dana trades below the market average for auto parts. The margin of safety depends on the Eaton Mobility deal closing on favorable terms without excessive dilution or leverage, on adjusted EPS staying near the $2.50 guidance, and on the market not treating the one-time-tax-inflated reported earnings as recurring.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAN price reference | $27.60 at the August 3, 2026, 3:16 PM EDT reading, up 0.67 or 2.49% from the $26.93 July 31 close, within a session range of $26.71 to $27.75 after opening at $26.71 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.97 billion implied by the $27.60 price times 107.57 million shares outstanding, matching the StockAnalysis.com market cap; the Pineify financial_rigor.py verification showed a 0.04% deviation | StockAnalysis.com and Pineify financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | Near $3.96 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 107.57 million shares, down 14.19% year over year and 6.23% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Revenue (TTM) | $7.59 billion trailing revenue, up 1.2%, split about $5.27 billion light vehicle and $2.31 billion commercial vehicle | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Reported net income (TTM) | $1.15 billion GAAP net income and $9.19 EPS, but pretax income was only about $26 million, indicating a large one-time tax benefit; this is not a recurring earnings figure | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Recurring earnings reference | FY2025 net income of $85 million, FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $2.50, and FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $2.44 | StockAnalysis.com financials, Dana Q1 2026 earnings call, and StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Sales of $1.868 billion up from $1.781 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $171 million at a 9.2% margin up 400 basis points, and adjusted free cash flow a use of $195 million on normal Q1 working capital | Dana Q1 2026 earnings call | April 29, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Approximately $7.5 billion of sales at the midpoint, about $800 million of adjusted EBITDA near a 10.6% margin, adjusted EPS near $2.50, and about $300 million of adjusted free cash flow, trending toward the upper end of ranges | Dana Q1 2026 earnings call | April 29, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Q1 2026 buybacks of 4.4 million shares for $125 million, about $775 million returned since the program launched in mid-2025, a $300 million 2026 buyback target, and a $2 billion program through 2030, with buybacks temporarily suspended to preserve the tax-free nature of the Reverse Morris Trust deal | Dana Q1 2026 earnings call and June 11, 2026 merger call | June 11, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash of $477 million and total debt of $1.54 billion, net cash of negative $1.06 billion or about $9.84 per share, down sharply from $3.52 billion of debt at the end of 2025 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE near 3.00 (distorted by one-time tax items), forward PE near 10.29, PS near 0.38, PB near 1.50, P/FCF near 20.04, PEG near 0.40 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise valuation | EV/EBITDA near 6.86, EV/Sales near 0.52, EV/EBIT near 16.87, EV/FCF near 27.34 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Eaton Mobility deal value | Transaction valued at approximately $5.1 billion, about 8.3 times estimated 2026 pro forma adjusted EBITDA before synergies and about 5.9 times including the $250 million of run-rate synergies | Dana June 11, 2026 merger press release and call | June 11, 2026 |
| Reverse Morris Trust structure | Tax-free for both Eaton and Dana shareholders, with Eaton shareholders owning at least 50.1% and Dana shareholders about 49.9% of the combined company at close, and Eaton receiving a cash distribution of approximately $1.1 billion funded by new debt | Dana June 11, 2026 merger press release and call | June 11, 2026 |
| Pro forma combined company | Approximately $11 billion of estimated 2026 sales, about $1.7 billion of adjusted EBITDA near a 15% margin, combined enterprise value over $10 billion, aftermarket of about $1.7 billion, and pro forma net leverage near 1.2x after the $1.1 billion distribution | Dana June 11, 2026 merger press release and call | June 11, 2026 |
| Raised 2030 targets | Combined company targets raised to $14 billion to $15 billion in sales, approximately 18% adjusted EBITDA margin, and an 8% to 9% adjusted free cash flow margin by 2030, up from Dana standalone targets of $10 billion in sales and 14% to 15% adjusted EBITDA margins | Dana June 11, 2026 merger press release and call | June 11, 2026 |
| Eaton Mobility business profile | Estimated $3.3 billion of 2026 revenue, about 65% commercial vehicle and 35% light vehicle with about 25% aftermarket, estimated 19% EBITDA margins, about 28 manufacturing sites, and roughly 50% of revenue in North America | Dana June 11, 2026 merger call | June 11, 2026 |
| New business backlog | Net new sales backlog of about $950 million including the Ram Dakota program with Stellantis, about $250 million of annual sales launching in early 2028 using installed Toledo capacity | Dana Q1 2026 earnings call | April 29, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy consensus across 8 analysts with an average price target of $37.57, low $33 and high $46, median $39, on StockAnalysis.com | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 2 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 3 Hold, 0 Sell out of 8 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 4, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | JPMorgan Buy with a $40 target on July 14, RBC Capital Buy with a $33 target on July 13, UBS Buy with a $39 target on July 9, Deutsche Bank Buy with a $39 target on July 7, Barclays downgrade to Hold with a $33 target on July 7, and Wells Fargo Equal Weight with a $33 target | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $7.65 billion with adjusted EPS $2.44, and FY2027 revenue estimate $10.60 billion with adjusted EPS $3.71 reflecting the Eaton Mobility combination | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.12 declared July 21, 2026, payable August 28, 2026 to holders of record August 7, annual dividend of $0.48 with a 1.74% yield, raised about 15% year over year | Dana dividend press release and StockAnalysis.com | July 21, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.12 million shares short, 3.83% of shares outstanding, about 1.94 days to cover, up from 3.64 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of $15.31 to $39.56, up about 68.84% over the trailing 52 weeks, with a 5-year beta near 1.99 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day moving average near $27.08 and 20-day moving average near $26.90 computed from the StockAnalysis.com daily close history through July 31, 2026, 50-day moving average near $29.95 and 200-day moving average near $28.97 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, 14-day RSI near 44.25, and 20-day average volume near 1,313,203 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Upcoming earnings | Second quarter 2026 financial results scheduled for August 6, 2026, before market open, followed by a conference call and webcast at 9 a.m. EDT | Dana press release | July 20, 2026 |
| Leadership transition | Byron Foster became CEO on July 1, 2026, R. Bruce McDonald moved to Executive Chairman with responsibility for integration and synergy realization, and Timothy Kraus continues as CFO, with Eaton CHRO Erin Rowse joining the combined company leadership at closing | Dana June 11, 2026 merger press release and company profile | August 4, 2026 |
| Employees | Approximately 26,900 employees across 24 countries | StockAnalysis.com company profile | August 4, 2026 |
This DAN AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026, and can be wrong if Dana execution, the Eaton Mobility merger outcome, financing terms, antitrust review, integration results, auto production cycles, tariffs, commodity costs, leverage, or market valuation changes.
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