Crane NXT, Co. research snapshot
CXT AI stock analysis reads Crane NXT as an established authentication and traceability technology leader that is repositioning for higher growth. The company completed the Antares Vision acquisition on March 31, 2026, reorganized into Security and Authentication Technologies (SAT) and Detection and Traceability Technologies (DTT) segments, and raised its 2026 sales growth guidance to 15% to 17% with adjusted EPS guidance of $4.10 to $4.40. Trailing twelve-month revenue is about $1.71 billion with TTM net income of $129.8 million, and the stock closed at $53.65 on August 3, 2026. The main cautions are higher leverage from the Antares deal, soft payment-side volumes, and Q1 2026 GAAP EPS depressed by acquisition costs and seasonality. The CXT AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a price promise, and depends on Antares integration, segment growth, debt paydown, and valuation multiple assumptions.
Current price
$53.65 close on August 3, 2026
Market cap
$3.09 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Established authentication and traceability leader shifting toward higher growth with an elevated balance sheet
Trend status
Trading above both the 50-day ($46.37) and 200-day ($49.54) moving averages, below the 52-week high of $69.00, with improving momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Crane NXT sells authentication and traceability technology: payment validation through CPI hardware and software, banknote printing and security features through Crane Currency, brand anti-counterfeiting through OpSec, and now inspection, detection, and track and trace through Antares Vision. Customers pay for counterfeit deterrence, product authenticity, and reliable transactions. | Medium-high |
| Moat | CPI has scale and certification moats in vending, gaming, and retail payment. Crane Currency is one of a handful of central-bank-approved currency printers with proprietary MOTION micro-optic security thread technology. Antares Vision adds regulated inspection and traceability relationships in life sciences and food and beverage. Switching costs are high for certified hardware and central bank contracts. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Aaron Saak has been stable since the spin-off and bought about $1.01 million of stock in June 2026. Management raised 2026 sales growth guidance to 15% to 17% after closing Antares while maintaining adjusted EPS guidance of $4.10 to $4.40. The key test is integration discipline and debt reduction after funding the acquisition with cash and borrowings. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $1.71 billion with TTM net income of $129.8 million. Q1 2026 sales rose 17.4% with 5.6% organic growth, but GAAP net income fell to $6.4 million because of lower CPI volumes, acquisition costs, and seasonality. FY2025 revenue grew 11.4% while GAAP net income fell 21.2% to $145.1 million. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $53.65, CXT trades at about 24.1x trailing GAAP EPS of $2.23, near 12x forward adjusted EPS, 2.49x book value, and about 14.9x trailing free cash flow. The dividend yield is 1.34%. The three-scenario model points to a bearish area near $46, a base area near $69, and a bullish area near $96 over three years. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CXT closed at $53.65 on August 3, 2026, above the 50-day moving average of $46.37 and the 200-day moving average of $49.54, with an RSI near 63.6. The stock sits in the middle of its $35.70 to $69.00 52-week range with improving short-term momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are leverage added by the Antares acquisition (net debt about $1.28 billion, debt to EBITDA near 4.4x), integration execution risk, soft DTT and payment volumes, short interest near 14.3% of shares outstanding, and the slower-moving structural decline in cash usage on the payment side. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high for price, market cap, quarterly results, guidance, and balance sheet. Medium for precise technical levels and forward estimates where analyst inputs vary. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CXT is a legitimate industrial technology business with real competitive advantages and a better growth setup than its cash-decline reputation suggests, but elevated leverage and integration risk make it a medium-certainty investment rather than a high-certainty one. | Medium |
CXT AI stock forecast
The CXT AI stock forecast uses the August 3, 2026 closing price of $53.65 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $4.23 as the earnings base, then applies a three-year scenario framework with growth and exit multiple assumptions. The model, computed with financial_rigor.py, produced a bearish area near $46, a base area near $69, and a bullish area near $96. These are scenario ranges, not predictions, and the wide spread reflects how much the outcome depends on Antares integration, segment mix, and margin execution.
$85 to $100
More likely if Antares Vision integrates quickly and drives sustained SAT and DTT growth, the company reaches its 2028 targets of $2.5 billion sales and $600 million EBITDA, payment-side volumes stabilize, and the market awards a 16x to 18x multiple on growing adjusted EPS.
$62 to $75
More likely if the company delivers near its 15% to 17% sales growth guidance with adjusted EPS between $4.10 and $4.40, Antares contributes as modeled, debt is gradually paid down, and the stock holds a 13x to 15x forward multiple.
$40 to $55
More likely if Antares integration disappoints, DTT and payment volumes keep declining, leverage stays high and interest coverage tightens, or the market re-rates the stock below 11x forward earnings while growth stalls.
CXT AI technical analysis
CXT AI technical analysis shows the stock closing at $53.65 on August 3, 2026, above its 50-day moving average of $46.37 and its 200-day moving average of $49.54, with an RSI near 63.6 signaling positive but not yet overbought momentum. The stock is in the middle of its $35.70 to $69.00 52-week range. Levels are estimates from current chart data as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff and should be confirmed on a dedicated charting platform before trading decisions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $53.65 | August 3, 2026 closing price from Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com, used for market cap and valuation math. |
| Immediate support | $52 to $53 | The August 3 session low was $52.33. This zone marks the recent breakout area on the recovery from the July lows. |
| Key support | $49.50 to $50.50 | The 200-day moving average sits at $49.54 with the psychological $50 level. This is the first meaningful trend support on pullbacks. |
| Major support | $46 to $47 | The 50-day moving average is $46.37. This zone was the recovery base and is the main invalidation area for the current uptrend. |
| Lower reference | $42 to $44 | A prior reaction area below the moving averages. Reaching this zone would imply a failed recovery and renewed downtrend risk. |
| Near resistance | $57 to $58 | The first overhead zone above the current price. A break would confirm that buyers control the trend. |
| Key resistance | $62 to $65 | The middle of the 52-week range with prior price congestion. A sustained move above $65 would be a strong technical signal. |
| Major resistance | $69.00 | The 52-week high. A breakout above $69 would open the stock to a new high and change the longer-term structure. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $46.37, 200-day $49.54 | Price is above both averages, a bullish alignment. Source: StockAnalysis.com statistics as of August 3, 2026. |
| Momentum | Positive, RSI near 63.6 | RSI of 63.58 suggests positive momentum that is approaching, but not yet at, overbought levels. |
| Volume | 475,820 shares on Aug 3 vs 593K 20-day average | Google Finance reported below-average volume on August 3, so the daily gain should be confirmed with rising volume on follow-through. |
| Volatility | Moderate, beta near 1.09 | The stock can move on Q2 2026 earnings (scheduled for August 5 to 6, 2026), Antares integration news, or segment results. |
| Invalidation | Close below $46 or above $65 | A close below $46 (under the 50-day moving average) would suggest the recovery is failing, while a sustained move above $65 would signal a potential retest of $69. |
CXT AI trading strategy
The CXT AI trading strategy below is a research framework, not personal advice. It connects SAT and DTT segment results, Antares integration milestones, adjusted EPS delivery against guidance, valuation discipline, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CXT to break and hold above the $57 to $58 resistance zone on above-average volume while Q2 2026 earnings, due August 5 to 6, confirm adjusted EPS progress toward the $4.10 to $4.40 guidance. Antares integration milestones and stable SAT growth would increase confidence in a sustained uptrend.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $49.50 should reduce setup confidence. Avoid if the stock breaks below the 50-day moving average at $46.37 or if adjusted EPS guidance is cut.
If CXT pulls back toward the $49.50 to $50.50 support zone without negative earnings or guidance news, compare the forward P/E near 12x with the historical range, the 1.34% dividend yield, and peer industrial technology multiples. The $0.18 quarterly dividend provides some income support during pullbacks.
Do not treat a pullback as benign if Antares integration disappoints, DTT volumes keep falling, the company guides below $4.10 adjusted EPS, or net debt keeps rising relative to EBITDA.
Track SAT and DTT segment revenue and margins, Antares Vision integration and contribution, quarterly adjusted EPS versus guidance, free cash flow conversion (guided near 90% to 110%), net debt and interest coverage, short interest near 14.3%, and insider transactions following the CEO buy in June 2026.
Position sizing should reflect that CXT is a mid-cap industrial with a real growth re-rating story but elevated leverage and integration execution risk, not a low-risk compounding business.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Crane NXT to prevent counterfeiting, prove authenticity, and run secure transactions. Payment operators pay CPI for validation hardware and software, central banks pay Crane Currency for banknote printing and MOTION security thread technology, global brands pay OpSec for authentication, and life sciences and food and beverage companies pay Antares Vision for inspection, detection, and track and trace technology.
Crane NXT holds certification moats in payment validation, a privileged central-bank supplier relationship with proprietary MOTION micro-optic thread, and regulated inspection and traceability positions added by Antares Vision. Switching costs are high for certified payment hardware, central bank contracts, and validated supply-chain systems.
The thesis fails if Antares integration underdelivers and leverage stays high, if digital payments structurally displace cash faster than the payment side can transition, if central banks reduce banknote orders, if inspection and traceability competition intensifies, or if debt service and interest coverage tighten during a demand downturn.
The team navigated the 2023 spin-off from Crane Co., closed the Antares Vision acquisition in March 2026, raised sales growth guidance, and maintained the dividend. The CEO bought about $1.01 million of stock in June 2026. Capital allocation between integration, debt reduction, and organic growth will define value creation.
Crane NXT now sits on two tracks: a stable-to-declining cash and payment track and a faster-growing authentication and traceability track in life sciences, food and beverage, and supply chain. The Antares deal deliberately shifts the mix toward regulated, higher-growth detection and traceability end markets with recurring software-like demand.
At $53.65, the market is pricing CXT at near 12x forward adjusted EPS of $4.23 with a Buy consensus and a $66.83 average price target. Margin of safety improves if Antares integration is clean, adjusted EPS guidance holds, and debt comes down, or if the stock pulls back toward the $46 to $50 moving-average support area.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CXT last price | $53.65 close on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Market cap | $3.09 billion | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 57.54 million | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| P/E ratio (trailing GAAP) | 24.06x | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | 12.03x on FY2026 adjusted EPS | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| EPS (trailing GAAP) | $2.23 | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.10 to $4.40, consensus $4.23 | Crane NXT Q1 2026 press release and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $0.18 quarterly, $0.72 annual, 1.34% yield | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $35.70 to $69.00 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $387.7 million, up 17.4% with 5.6% organic growth | Crane NXT Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP and adjusted EPS | GAAP EPS $0.11, adjusted EPS $0.60 | Crane NXT Q1 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Quarterly revenue trend (4 quarters) | Jun 2025: $404.4M, Sep 2025: $445.1M, Dec 2025: $476.9M, Mar 2026: $387.7M | Google Finance income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | Revenue $1.71 billion, net income $129.8 million, EBITDA $346.3 million | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $228.3M, total debt $1.51B, net debt $1.28B, book value per share $21.54 | Crane NXT Q1 2026 balance sheet and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy, 6 analysts, average 12-month price target $66.83 (range $50 to $85) | StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 4, 2026 |
| Market cap verification | $3.09B calculated from $53.65 price and 57.54M shares, 0.10% deviation | financial_rigor.py verify-market-cap | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | 24.06x PE, 2.49x PB, 10.35% ROE, 14.94x P/FCF, 6.69% FCF yield, 1.34% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py verify-valuation | August 4, 2026 |
| Three-scenario target prices | Bullish $95.7 (10% growth, 17x PE), Base $68.6 (5% growth, 14x PE), Bearish $46.5 (0% growth, 11x PE) over 3 years on FY2026 adjusted EPS of $4.23 | financial_rigor.py three-scenario | August 4, 2026 |
This CXT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong if Antares integration results, segment growth, payment volume trends, leverage, valuation multiples, or market conditions change. Q2 2026 results were not yet released at the cutoff and may change the outlook.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
