Flowserve Corporation research snapshot
FLS AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Flowserve as a higher-margin flow control franchise with an improving earnings engine, record aftermarket bookings, and a rising backlog, but with sales still declining and a premium valuation. The stock closed at $75.99 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $9.66 billion, verified during this full refresh as $75.99 times 127.11 million shares outstanding. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, delivered bookings of $1.35 billion up 26%, record aftermarket bookings near $700 million up 12%, adjusted operating margin expansion of 70 basis points to 15.3%, and adjusted EPS of $0.95 that beat the consensus of $0.86, while management raised the low end of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $4.05 to $4.20 and lowered the organic sales outlook to down about 1%. Offsetting the momentum is a still negative organic sales trend, a Middle East conflict that cut year-to-date sales by about $60 million, net debt that rose to about $1.6 billion after the $490 million Trillium Valves acquisition, and a multiple near 26.5x trailing GAAP earnings and about 18x forward adjusted EPS. This page provides scenarios and research frameworks for information only, not investment advice.
Current price
$75.99
Market cap
$9.66 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
Momentum build on record aftermarket, sales still declining
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day averages after a Q2-report-driven rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Flowserve sells engineered pumps, valves, seals, automation, and lifecycle services that help energy, chemical, power, water, and general industrial customers move and control fluids in critical processes. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built on an installed base, more than 50 established brands, engineering know-how, customer qualification, global manufacturing, and Quick Response Centers that support replacement and service work. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Scott Rowe has led Flowserve since 2017 and runs the Flowserve Business System, 80/20 portfolio work, and the 3D strategy. Q2 2026 delivered record aftermarket bookings, strong margin expansion, and a raised EPS guidance floor, while the Trillium acquisition and debt now test capital discipline. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 bookings rose 26% to $1.35 billion, adjusted operating margin expanded 70 basis points to 15.3%, and adjusted EPS of $0.95 beat consensus. 2026 adjusted EPS guidance was raised to $4.05 to $4.20, but organic sales guidance was cut to down about 1% because of the Middle East. | High |
| Valuation | At $75.99, FLS traded near 26.5x TTM GAAP EPS, about 18x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, near 23.5x TTM free cash flow, and near 23x EV/EBITDA. The price already assumes material execution and growth. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31, 2026 close of $75.99 was above the 50-day average near $73.38 and the 200-day average near $73.75, with RSI near 58.60 and average 20-day volume near 1.93 million shares, a constructive but not overbought setup. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because organic sales are still declining, the Middle East conflict cut year-to-date sales by about $60 million, net debt rose to about $1.6 billion after Trillium, and results depend on industrial capital spending, tariffs, project timing, and acquisition integration. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | AI confidence is high for descriptive facts and calculations that matched across StockAnalysis.com, Macrotrends, the Q2 2026 release, and the call, but lower for exact returns because industrial cycles and Middle East timing can change faster than annual reports. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium. Flowserve has a credible long-term operating story with improving margins, but the margin of safety depends on converting a strong order book into sales growth and holding the balance sheet flexible. | Medium |
FLS AI stock forecast
The FLS AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework anchored to the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance, or about $4.125. The model used 12%, 8%, and 0% annual EPS growth with 22x, 18x, and 14x exit multiples. Those assumptions produced approximate values of $127.50, $93.50, and $57.75 before dividends. They are scenario outputs, not promised prices.
$118 to $132
More likely if bookings convert into sales growth, aftermarket keeps setting records, nuclear and power demand continues, Middle East disruption fades, adjusted EPS compounds near 12%, and the market supports about a 22x multiple.
$87 to $99
More likely if Flowserve delivers the current $4.05 to $4.20 adjusted EPS guidance, grows adjusted EPS near 8% with Trillium integration on track, converts backlog steadily, and earns an 18x multiple as margins improve.
$52 to $61
More likely if industrial capital spending weakens, organic sales keep falling, Middle East disruption extends into 2027, Trillium synergies disappoint, debt costs rise, tariffs pressure margins, and adjusted EPS stays near the guidance midpoint with a 14x multiple.
FLS AI technical analysis
FLS AI technical analysis turned more constructive as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close of $75.99 sits above the 50-day average near $73.38 and the 200-day average near $73.75, a change from the July 12 snapshot that had the stock below both averages. RSI near 58.60 is neutral to slightly bullish and not overbought, and the Q2 report on July 29 to 30, 2026 triggered a rally that lifted the stock off the July lows.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $75.99 | July 31, 2026 close from StockAnalysis.com, used for the market cap and valuation framework at the August 3 cutoff. |
| Near support | $73.40 to $74.50 | The 50-day average near $73.38 and the 200-day average near $73.75 form a support cluster below the close. |
| Next support | $69.50 to $70.50 | The July pre-earnings trading area near $69.78 on July 10 defines the next downside reference if the moving-average band fails. |
| Near resistance | $77.90 to $80 | The July 31 intraday high near $77.87 and the round $80 level form the first overhead test for the rally. |
| 52-week high | $92.41 | The August 2025 high is the upper cap of the 52-week range and the long-term overhead reference. |
| 50-day moving average | $73.38 | StockAnalysis.com snapshot as of August 2, 2026. Price was above this level, a short-term positive. |
| 200-day moving average | $73.75 | StockAnalysis.com snapshot as of August 2, 2026. Holding above this level keeps the intermediate trend intact. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI 58.60 | The RSI is above the midpoint but below overbought levels, consistent with an uptrend that still has room before being extended. |
| Volume | About 1.93 million average daily shares | StockAnalysis.com reported average 20-day volume of 1,934,895 shares. The July 31 move came on about 2.59 million shares. |
| Volatility | Above-market industrial volatility, beta 1.26 | Flowserve can move sharply around earnings, Middle East news, tariffs, project awards, nuclear news, and global capital-spending expectations. |
| Invalidation | Close below $69.50, then $48.71 | A close below the July support area near $69.50 would weaken the recovery. A break below the 52-week low area near $48.71 would invalidate the broader uptrend structure. |
FLS AI trading strategy
The FLS AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a cyclical industrial company with recurring aftermarket revenue and long-cycle project exposure. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, earnings dates, position sizing, and defined risk limits.
Watch for FLS to hold above the $73.40 to $74.50 moving-average support band with improving volume and evidence that organic sales inflect positive in the second half. A clean hold above that band would be stronger than a single intraday move.
A close below $73.40 and then below $69.50 should invalidate the short-term setup. Do not treat analyst price targets as confirmation.
If FLS pulls back toward the $73.40 to $74.50 support zone without a deterioration in bookings, backlog, margins, or Middle East conditions, compare the price with forward adjusted EPS, free cash flow, net debt, and the 52-week range.
Avoid averaging down automatically because a cyclical or geopolitical decline can continue when customer capital spending or project timing changes.
Track original equipment and aftermarket bookings, backlog conversion, organic sales growth, FPD and FCD margins, Middle East run rate and rebuild activity, free cash flow, net debt, Trillium integration, tariffs, and the next 2026 guidance update.
Reduce confidence if adjusted margin gains rely on exclusions while GAAP cash generation, organic bookings, or organic sales weaken.
Investment research summary
Flowserve sells mission-critical pumps, valves, seals, automation, and services that keep industrial processes moving, controlled, and safe. Customers pay for reliability, engineered fit, compliance, uptime, and access to replacement parts and service teams.
The moat is strongest in the installed base, application engineering, qualified products, established brands, global manufacturing, and local Quick Response Centers. Aftermarket work is generally higher margin and less exposed to new equipment cycles, and Q2 2026 set a record near $700 million in aftermarket bookings.
The thesis fails if bookings do not convert into sales, organic growth stays negative, the Middle East conflict extends, the energy and chemical cycle weakens, tariffs and foreign exchange compress margins, or Trillium integration leaves Flowserve with more debt but less operating leverage. The nuclear story can also become an expensive narrative if project schedules stretch.
Scott Rowe has been CEO since 2017 and has pushed the Flowserve Business System, 80/20 portfolio work, and the 3D strategy. The company returned about $80 million to shareholders in the first half of 2026, including $25 million of buybacks in Q2 at an average near $67, then closed the $490 million Trillium Valves acquisition on June 30, 2026, making post-deal capital discipline the next test.
Flow control is a durable infrastructure market rather than a pure high-growth software market. Nuclear life extensions and new builds, power generation, LNG, energy security, water investment, and industrial digitization support long-term demand, while oil and gas, chemical, and general industrial spending remain cyclical.
At $75.99, the stock was expensive on TTM GAAP earnings at about 26.5x but closer to 18x the midpoint of 2026 adjusted EPS guidance. The margin of safety therefore comes from booking-to-sales conversion, backlog execution, free cash flow, and multiple durability rather than from a low absolute valuation.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| FLS price | $75.99 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.66 billion, verified as $75.99 x 127.11 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $4.729 billion, up 3.8% from 2024 | Flowserve FY2025 release, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 earnings | $346.25 million GAAP net earnings attributable to Flowserve, or $2.64 diluted EPS; adjusted EPS was $3.64 | Flowserve FY2025 release and SEC 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 bookings and backlog | Bookings $1.35 billion, up 26%; book-to-bill 1.15x; record aftermarket bookings near $700 million, up 12%; backlog up 6% sequentially and 9% year over year excluding Trillium | Flowserve Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 financials | Reported sales $1.2 billion, down 2%; organic sales down 3%; adjusted gross margin 35.9%; adjusted operating margin 15.3%; adjusted EPS $0.95, ahead of consensus of $0.86 | Flowserve Q2 2026 earnings release and call | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Organic sales growth down about 1%; total sales growth about 3%; adjusted EPS $4.05 to $4.20; adjusted operating margin expansion about 100 basis points; free cash flow conversion about 90% of adjusted net earnings | Flowserve Q2 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and free cash flow | Cash $731 million, total debt $2.32 billion, net cash minus $1.59 billion, and TTM free cash flow $411 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics, reconciled with Flowserve filings | August 3, 2026 |
| Trillium Valves acquisition | Closed June 30, 2026 for $490 million plus working capital adjustments, funded in part by a $500 million 5.7% senior note due 2036, strengthening nuclear and power exposure | Flowserve Q2 2026 earnings call and acquisition announcement | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating from 11 analysts; average target $89.10 with a range of $70 to $100; post-Q2 moves included RBC to $94, Baird to $93, and Stifel to $94 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $73.38, 200-day average $73.75, RSI 58.60, beta 1.26, average 20-day volume 1,934,895 shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This FLS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if Flowserve fundamentals, industrial spending, Middle East conditions, project timing, tariffs, debt, acquisition integration, regulation, or market valuation change.
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