CVR Energy, Inc. research snapshot
CVI AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads CVR Energy as a small-cap independent refiner and nitrogen fertilizer producer in a cyclical earnings upswing that the market already prices at a premium to book value. The stock closed at $32.89 on August 3, 2026, down 2.73 or 7.66% from the $35.62 prior close after a 29.3% year-to-date run, with MarketBeat quoting the close at $32.92, carrying a market capitalization near $3.31 billion and an enterprise value near $4.37 billion. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, showed adjusted EPS of $0.34 beating the consensus estimate of $0.26, adjusted EBITDA of $209 million versus $105 million a year earlier, revenue of $2.74 billion up 55.5%, free cash flow of $264 million, and crude and ammonia utilization of 98% and 99%, driven by Group 3 2-1-1 cracks averaging $44.91 per barrel with management guiding above mid-cycle conditions into 2027. The main offset is heavy renewable-fuel compliance cost, including a $216 million net RIN expense, a $408 million accrued RFS obligation, and a Wynnewood small-refinery exemption petition that the EPA has not ruled on for nine months, plus $81 million of realized derivative losses and a consensus Strong Sell rating from 8 analysts with an average target of $30.25. The CVI AI stock forecast is therefore scenario-based, not a precise price prediction.
Current price
$32.89 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, down 2.73 or 7.66% from the $35.62 July 31 close, after opening at $34.82 and trading in a session range of $32.73 to $35.27, with MarketBeat quoting the close at $32.92 and an after-hours quote near $32.95 on Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com and $33.12 on MarketBeat
Market cap
$3.31 billion at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching $32.89 times 100.53 million shares outstanding, with a float near 29.3 million shares and an enterprise value near $4.37 billion per StockAnalysis.com (S&P Global)
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Hold with cyclical upside, no book-value margin of safety
Trend status
Above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $31.73 and $30.56, but 7.7% below the prior close after the August 3 pullback from the $35.27 session high, inside a $19.62 to $41.67 52-week range
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CVR runs a coking, medium-sour crude oil refinery in Coffeyville, Kansas, a second refinery in Wynnewood, Oklahoma, a renewable diesel operation, and nitrogen fertilizer plants in East Dubuque, Illinois and Coffeyville. Earnings depend on crack spreads and nitrogen prices, with Q2 2026 showing 98% crude and 99% ammonia utilization. | Medium |
| Moat | Narrow. Complex heavy-sour crude processing and a lower-cost natural gas feedstock position give modest advantages, but refined products are a commodity and independent refiners face integrated majors, renewable fuel mandates, and RFS compliance costs. | Low |
| Management | Dane Neumann, promoted from EVP and CFO to President and CEO in late June 2026, ran a strong Q2 with disciplined cost control and a stated deleveraging target of $1 billion of base-business debt. Richard Roberts serves as interim CFO. Icahn Enterprises-linked insiders hold about 71% of the stock, aligning incentives but limiting minority voice. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue fell from $10.9 billion in 2022 to $7.16 billion in 2025 while net income swung from $769 million in 2023 to $7 million in 2024 and $27 million in 2025. Q2 2026 reversed the trend with $2.74 billion revenue, $209 million adjusted EBITDA, and $264 million free cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At $32.89, CVI trades near 48x trailing EPS of $0.68, about 0.39x sales, near 6.8x book value on the $5.22 June 30 book value per share, and a forward multiple that varies widely by provider from 12.8x on StockAnalysis.com to 32.5x on Yahoo Finance, reflecting divergent forward estimates. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $32.89 on August 3, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near $31.73 and the 200-day near $30.56, but 7.7% below the prior close after a sharp pullback from the $35.27 session high, with the 52-week range at $19.62 to $41.67. | Medium |
| Risk level | High. Risks include RIN and RFS compliance costs with an unresolved EPA exemption petition, crack-spread swap losses with 8.2 million barrels still open, high debt near $1.8 billion, a Strong Sell consensus, short interest near 18% of float, and commodity price cyclicality. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported Q2 2026 and FY2025 financials, balance sheet, share count, market cap, dividend, and analyst ratings. Medium for technical levels and forward scenarios because crack spreads, RIN prices, and EPA rulings can move quickly. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. The earnings upswing is real and cash-generative, but the stock offers no book-value margin of safety and depends on crack spreads staying above mid-cycle and on favorable EPA policy, neither of which an AI model can predict. | Low |
CVI AI stock forecast
The CVI AI stock forecast is scenario-based because earnings swing with crack spreads, RIN costs, and EPA rulings. Using the $32.89 reference price, the $5.22 June 30 book value per share, and the analyst target range of $28 to $35, the mechanical ranges are roughly $22 to $28 in a bear case, $28 to $34 in a base case, and $35 to $45 in a bullish case. Higher outcomes require cracks to stay above mid-cycle into 2027, an EPA ruling on the Wynnewood SRE petition, continued deleveraging, and a dividend increase.
$35 to $45
More likely if Group 3 cracks stay above mid-cycle (Q3-to-date near $58.70 per barrel), the EPA grants the Wynnewood small-refinery exemption, the company reaches its $1 billion debt target and raises the dividend, and free cash flow keeps funding deleveraging.
$28 to $34
More likely if crack spreads hold modestly above mid-cycle, RIN costs stay elevated but manageable, the company keeps paying the $0.40 dividend while reducing debt, and the stock trades near the analyst consensus target of $30.25 to $32.
$22 to $28
More likely if refining margins revert toward historical mid-cycle, RIN prices keep climbing without an EPA remedy, hedge losses continue, or a de-escalation of global conflicts restores refining supply and removes the current scarcity premium.
CVI AI technical analysis
CVI AI technical analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff shows a stock in an uptrend that just gave back part of its gains. The August 3, 2026 close of $32.89 sits above the 50-day moving average near $31.73 and the 200-day near $30.56, with RSI near 49.4 and a beta of 0.82, after a 7.66% one-day drop from the $35.62 prior close. The 52-week range is $19.62 to $41.67 and the 50-day range is $26.73 to $38.31.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $32.89 | August 3, 2026 close on Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com, with MarketBeat quoting $32.92, after-hours near $32.95 to $33.12, down 7.66% from the $35.62 prior close. |
| Immediate support | $31.50 to $32.70 | Brackets the August 3 session low of $32.73 and the 50-day moving average near $31.73. |
| Deeper support | $26.70 to $28.00 | The 50-day range low near $26.73 and the low end of analyst targets near $28.00. |
| Primary floor | $19.60 to $22.00 | The 52-week low of $19.62 is the measurable floor; a break below signals a new down leg for the stock. |
| Near resistance | $35.30 to $36.00 | The August 3 session high of $35.27 and the prior close of $35.62. |
| Upper resistance | $38.30 to $41.70 | The 50-day range high near $38.31 and the 52-week high of $41.67, which would require sustained strong margins to challenge. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $31.73, 200-day near $30.56 | The price holds above both moving averages, consistent with an uptrend until a close below the 50-day. |
| Momentum | YTD +29.3%, 1-year +31.25% | Strong medium-term momentum, but the 7.66% drop on August 3 and RSI near 49.4 show the short-term move is cooling. |
| Volume | 1.33 million shares on August 3 vs a 20-day average near 1.0 million | Elevated volume on the down day; short interest near 18% of float can add to both upside and downside spikes. |
| Volatility | Watch Q3 earnings, the EPA SRE ruling, and crack-spread data | Next quarterly results are estimated around October 28, 2026, and weekly crack-spread and RIN price data plus the Wynnewood EPA decision are the primary near-term drivers. |
| Invalidation | Close below $28.00, then below $19.62 | A sustained close below the 50-day range low weakens the uptrend; a break of the 52-week low invalidates the recovery thesis. |
CVI AI trading strategy
The CVI AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links chart levels with crack spreads, RIN and RFS policy, hedge positions, debt reduction, and dividend policy, and it flags the high short interest as a two-way risk.
Watch for CVI to reclaim and hold above the $35.30 to $36.00 zone on a close with rising volume, supported by crack spreads above mid-cycle, a favorable EPA ruling on the Wynnewood SRE petition, and continued deleveraging.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $28.00 would end the trend setup, especially if RIN costs rise or free cash flow turns negative.
If CVI pulls back toward the $26.70 to $28.00 support zone, compare the price with the $5.22 book value per share and normalized mid-cycle earnings power before treating the pullback as an entry.
Do not treat a deep pullback as cheap if the company is burning cash, hedge losses grow, or the EPA denies the exemption petition, because commodity risk can push the price well below book value.
Track Group 3 2-1-1 cracks, RIN prices and the $408 million accrued RFS obligation, the Wynnewood SRE decision, open crack-spread swaps near 8.2 million barrels, ammonia and UAN prices, debt progress toward the $1 billion target, and dividend policy.
Position size should reflect that CVI is a high-risk cyclical small cap where commodity prices and government policy drive outcomes more than company-specific advantages. Do not allocate capital you cannot afford to lose.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CVR because transportation and agriculture need gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, and nitrogen fertilizer. The company converts crude oil and natural gas into those products, and its revenue and earnings are set by crack spreads and nitrogen prices, not by any unique product or service.
CVR has narrow advantages: a coking refinery that processes heavy-sour crude, a natural gas cost position in fertilizer, and MidCon logistics. But refined products are a commodity, RFS compliance is a structural cost, and the business faces integrated majors and the long-term energy transition.
The thesis fails if crack spreads revert to mid-cycle, RIN prices keep climbing without an EPA remedy, the Wynnewood SRE petition is denied, the remaining crack-spread swaps lose more money, debt stays near $1.8 billion, or a de-escalation of global conflicts restores refining supply and removes the scarcity premium.
Dane Neumann, promoted from EVP and CFO to President and CEO in late June 2026, has emphasized safety, reliability, cost control, and a $1 billion base-business debt target. Q2 2026 execution was strong, but the leadership team was just reshuffled and minority shareholders have limited voice under Icahn Enterprises-linked ownership of about 71%.
Refining is a mature cyclical industry in a geopolitically driven tight phase, with Middle East refinery damage, Russian capacity offline, and a China export halt supporting U.S. exports up 16% year to date. Management expects conditions above mid-cycle into 2027. The long-term energy transition and RFS policy remain structural headwinds.
At $32.89, CVI trades near 48x trailing EPS, about 0.39x sales, and near 6.8x the $5.22 book value, with no book-value margin of safety. The market prices in crack spreads above mid-cycle and a favorable EPA outcome. Margin of safety would only appear on a fall toward book value or if the RIN overhang is resolved and earnings power normalizes at a mid-cycle multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVI quote reference | $32.89 close on August 3, 2026, down 2.73 or 7.66% from the $35.62 prior close, after opening at $34.82 and trading $32.73 to $35.27, with after-hours near $32.95 to $33.12 and MarketBeat quoting the close at $32.92 | Yahoo Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and MarketBeat CVI overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.31 billion at the August 3 close, matching $32.89 times 100.53 million shares outstanding, with an enterprise value near $4.37 billion | StockAnalysis.com CVI statistics (S&P Global) and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 100.53 million shares outstanding with a float near 29.3 million | StockAnalysis.com and MarketBeat CVI statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $2.74 billion up 55.5% year over year, consolidated net income $46 million, net loss attributable to CVR Energy stockholders of $3 million, diluted EPS of negative $0.03, adjusted EPS of $0.34 beating the consensus of $0.26, adjusted EBITDA of $209 million, operating cash flow of $307 million, and free cash flow of $264 million | MarketBeat CVI earnings report and Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $7.16 billion, net income attributable to CVR Energy of $27 million, basic EPS of $0.27, and operating cash flow of $144 million | MarketBeat CVI financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue and earnings trend | Revenue $10.90 billion in 2022, $9.25 billion in 2023, $7.61 billion in 2024, and $7.16 billion in 2025, with net income of $463 million, $769 million, $7 million, and $27 million in those years | MarketBeat CVI financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash of $737 million, long-term debt of $1.77 billion, total debt near $1.80 billion, net debt near $1.06 billion, common equity of $525 million, and total equity including noncontrolling interests of $744 million | StockAnalysis.com CVI statistics and MarketBeat CVI financials balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM revenue of $8.47 billion, TTM net income of $69 million, TTM EPS of $0.68 to $0.69, trailing P/E near 48, forward P/E of 12.76 on StockAnalysis.com versus 32.47 on Yahoo Finance, price-to-sales near 0.39, book value per share of $5.22 on the June 30 common-equity basis, and price-to-book near 6.8x | StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical and trading data | 52-week range of $19.62 to $41.67, 50-day range of $26.73 to $38.31, 50-day moving average near $31.73, 200-day moving average near $30.56, RSI near 49.4, beta of 0.82, year-to-date gain of 29.3%, and a 1-year price gain of 31.25% | StockAnalysis.com, Yahoo Finance, and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 5.26 million shares short, 5.23% of shares outstanding and near 17.9% of float, with 4.7 to 5.9 days to cover depending on source, up from 4.87 million shares the prior month | StockAnalysis.com and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Sell consensus from 8 analysts with an average price target of $30.25, a high of $35.00, and a low of $28.00, including 6 sell and 2 hold ratings, with Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com showing a Sell consensus and a $29.40 target | MarketBeat CVI forecast and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Quarterly dividend of $0.10 for an annual rate of $0.40 and a yield near 1.22%, with an ex-dividend date of August 10, 2026, a payable date of August 17, 2026, and a payout ratio near 29% | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
This CVI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell CVR Energy stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available data as of August 4, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, crack-spread, RIN and EPA policy, balance-sheet, management, or other material information changes.
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