Cavco Industries, Inc. research snapshot
CVCO AI stock analysis currently reads Cavco Industries as a well-managed manufactured and modular homebuilder with a clean balance sheet, consistent margins, and a cyclical demand profile tied to affordable housing trends. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, CVCO traded at $567.26, and market cap math using 7.71 million shares implied about $4.37 billion. The AI view is constructive on Cavco low-debt structure, financial services attachment revenue, and long-term affordable housing demand, but cautious on affordability, interest rate sensitivity, order volume trends, and the stock premium valuation relative to pre-pandemic levels. This page uses scenarios, not a guaranteed price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$567.26
Market cap
$4.37 billion reported, $4.37 billion verified by price times shares
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Profitable factory-built housing leader with low debt, steady margins, and housing-cycle sensitivity
Trend status
Mixed. CVCO trades 20% below its 52-week high of $713.01 but well above the $397.38 low, forming a choppy range since the May 2026 earnings release
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cavco designs, produces, and sells factory-built homes through independent and company-owned retailers, plus provides financing and insurance attachment income. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is based on manufacturing scale, brand portfolio (Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor, Nationwide), factory network, retail distribution, and financial services integration rather than network effects or hard IP. | Medium |
| Management | CEO William C. Boor has led Cavco since 2015, emphasizing operational efficiency, debt avoidance, and financial services growth. The management team has a long tenure and a conservative capital allocation track record. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue was approximately $2.24 billion with net income of $190.55 million. Q4 FY2026 showed revenue of $550.13 million and net income of $42.46 million, with EPS of $5.42 slightly below consensus of $5.52. | High |
| Valuation | At $567.26, verified valuation math gives about 23.6x TTM EPS, 2.0x TTM sales, 4.0x book value, and a 3.2% FCF yield. The P/E is above the 10-year median for this sub-industry. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The chart shows a mixed picture: CVCO has a positive long-term trend above the 52-week low support, but near-term resistance around $600 to $620 and the $713 high have contained the stock for weeks. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium because manufactured housing demand depends on subprime credit availability, mortgage rates, consumer confidence, and affordable housing policy. The low debt level provides a buffer but does not eliminate earnings cyclicality. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts, medium for the three-year earnings growth assumptions and technical trading setup. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. CVCO is a conservatively run business in a cyclical industry. The valuation near 24x EPS already prices in steady growth, leaving limited upside if the housing market slows. | Medium |
CVCO AI stock forecast
The CVCO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $567.26 price, TTM EPS of $24.00, and a three-year model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish value near $944, a base value near $629, and a bearish value near $316 before dividends.
$850 to $1,000
More likely if manufactured housing demand strengthens on affordable housing policy support, order volumes accelerate, gross margins expand, financial services income grows, and the market re-rates CVCO toward a premium earnings multiple reflecting consistent execution.
$590 to $670
More likely if EPS compounds near 6%, demand stays steady, credit conditions remain stable, and the market values CVCO around 22x earnings while waiting for clearer housing demand signals.
$290 to $340
More likely if affordability worsens, subprime credit tightens, order volumes decline, gross margins compress, or investors rerate manufactured housing stocks toward recession-level multiples near 14x earnings.
CVCO AI technical analysis
CVCO AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance showed CVCO at $567.26 with a $564.42 to $574.75 day range and a $397.38 to $713.01 52-week range. The stock has formed a range-bound pattern below its May 2026 earnings gap, with declining average volume suggesting indecision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $567.26 | Yahoo Finance showed CVCO trading at $567.26 on July 10, 2026, with the prior close at $567.96. |
| Near support | $540 to $550 | The stock has tested this zone several times since May 2026. A break below it would target the March 2026 lows. |
| Key support | $500 | A psychologically important level and close to the February 2026 reaction low. A close below it would weaken the medium-term structure. |
| Lower support | $397.38 | Yahoo Finance listed the 52-week low at $397.38, which represents the worst-case drawdown reference from the past year. |
| Near resistance | $600 to $620 | The stock has struggled to reclaim this zone since the post-earnings decline. A reclaim would shift the near-term bias from neutral to constructive. |
| Major resistance | $713.01 | Yahoo Finance listed the 52-week high at $713.01, the level a confirmed breakout would need to exceed. |
| Moving averages | Price trading near 50-day, above 200-day | The 50-day moving average is likely providing nearby resistance while the 200-day moving average remains below price, supporting the longer-term uptrend. |
| Momentum | Neutral to weak | Volume has declined on bounces, suggesting the rally attempts lack strong conviction. RSI is likely near the mid-range, not oversold. |
| Volume | 68.6K versus 129.8K average | Yahoo Finance reported July 10 volume well below the average, confirming the range-bound indecision. |
| Invalidation | Close below $500, then $450 | A decisive close below $500 would shift the framework from range-bound to potentially bearish, targeting the $450 zone. |
CVCO AI trading strategy
The CVCO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a low-debt manufactured homebuilder with steady financial services income. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, current order data, affordability metrics, and position sizing.
Watch for CVCO to reclaim and hold above $600 to $620 with stronger volume. Confirmation should include stable or improving order trends, no gross margin warnings, consistent buyback or capital return activity, and a broader market that supports housing-related stocks.
A failed breakout that reverses below $540 should reduce confidence because the stock would remain in the post-earnings range without direction.
If CVCO pulls back toward $500 to $520 without an earnings miss or credit market disruption, the setup becomes a value review within the context of a conservatively financed business with steady financial services income.
Do not average down solely because the balance sheet is clean. Manufactured housing orders can weaken before headline earnings reflect the change.
Track quarterly order volumes, backlog, average selling price, gross margin, financial services segment income, cash, debt, share count, and the next earnings date (estimated July 30, 2026).
Reduce confidence if order volumes decline in consecutive quarters, gross margin falls below company guidance, financial services income slows, or management provides cautious demand commentary.
Investment research summary
Cavco is paid when households buy factory-built homes and when the company attaches mortgage, title, insurance, and related financial services. The customer is buying an affordable path to homeownership with design choices and delivery speed that site-built homes cannot match at the same price point.
CVCO has manufacturing scale, a network of factories, multiple brands (Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor), retail distribution, and financial services capture. The moat is real but cyclical, because manufactured housing credit availability and consumer confidence drive demand more than brand differentiation.
The thesis fails if subprime credit tightens, manufactured housing regulation changes, order volumes decline, used-home inventory competes with new units, or the financial services segment faces adverse claims or credit losses.
Management has maintained a conservative balance sheet with near-zero net debt, steady margins, and consistent financial services income. CEO William C. Boor has led the company for over a decade with a focus on operational discipline and long-term value creation.
The long-term trend supports manufactured housing as an affordable solution to the U.S. housing shortage, but the near-term cycle is dominated by mortgage rates, subprime lending conditions, consumer confidence, and local zoning and regulatory policies.
The verified valuation at 23.6x TTM earnings is above the sub-industry median. The margin of safety depends on whether current EPS is at a mid-cycle or peak level. The clean balance sheet provides downside protection, but the entry price limits upside return potential.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVCO price | $567.26 on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance live quote | July 12, 2026 |
| Market cap | $4.37 billion reported, $4.37 billion verified | Yahoo Finance quote and financial_rigor.py market cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 7.71 million | Google Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 TTM revenue | $2.24 billion | Yahoo Finance financials and Google Finance cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 TTM net income | $190.55 million | Yahoo Finance financials and Google Finance cross-check | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $24.00 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $252.95 million cash and $3.88% debt-to-equity ratio | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 earnings | Revenue of $550.13 million and EPS of $5.42, below $5.52 consensus | Google Finance earnings data | July 12, 2026 |
| Profit margin and ROE | 8.49% profit margin and 17.58% ROE | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $138.81 million levered FCF | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | UBS Buy PT $700, Craig-Hallum Buy, Citizens JMP Hold PT $550 | Google Finance analyst ratings and Yahoo Finance analyst insights | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical levels | $540 to $550 near support, $600 to $620 resistance, $713 52-week high | Yahoo Finance price history and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
This CVCO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026, and can be wrong if manufactured housing demand, subprime credit conditions, interest rates, gross margins, or market valuation changes.
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