Cavco Industries, Inc. research snapshot
CVCO AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Cavco Industries as a well-managed manufactured and modular homebuilder whose order momentum accelerated into the first fiscal quarter, with record quarterly shipments, the first quarter with revenue above $600 million, and a backlog that grew more than 50% to $298 million. The tradeoff is that Q1 FY2027 diluted EPS of $5.43 missed the $5.55 consensus because factory-built housing gross margin fell to 20.8% from 22.6% on higher input costs and competitive retail pricing, and SG&A rose with the American Homestar integration. At the August 3, 2026, 10:33 AM EDT reading, CVCO traded at $550.93, and market cap math using 7.71 million shares implied about $4.25 billion, matching the $4.24 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com. The AI view is constructive on the clean balance sheet, financial services attachment income, the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act tailwind, and the step change in order flow, but cautious on the gross margin slide, tariff and inflation cost pressure, affordability for lower-income buyers, and a valuation near 24x trailing earnings. This page uses scenarios, not a guaranteed price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$550.93 at the August 3, 2026, 10:33 AM EDT reading, up 0.71% from the $547.03 prior close, after opening at $548.44
Market cap
$4.24 billion reported, $4.25 billion verified by price times shares
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Strengthening order momentum and a 50% backlog jump against margin pressure and a premium valuation
Trend status
Mixed to mildly weak. CVCO trades 23% below its 52-week high of $713.01 but well above the $397.38 low, sitting below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after the July 30, 2026 Q1 FY2027 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Cavco designs, produces, and sells factory-built homes through independent and company-owned retailers, plus provides financing and insurance attachment income. Q1 FY2027 revenue of $610 million was the highest quarter in company history. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat is based on manufacturing scale, brand portfolio (Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor), factory network, retail distribution, and financial services integration rather than network effects or hard IP. | Medium |
| Management | CEO William C. Boor has led Cavco since 2015 with a conservative balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation. The company repurchased about $30 million of stock in Q1 FY2027 and has deployed over $600 million in buybacks since starting the program about five years ago. | High |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $2.30 billion up 9.7% and TTM net income about $181.18 million down 3.8%. Q1 FY2027 showed revenue of $610 million up 9.5% but diluted EPS of $5.43, below the $5.55 consensus, as gross margin fell to 20.8% in factory-built housing. | High |
| Valuation | At $550.93, verified valuation math gives about 24x TTM EPS, 23.96x by exact calculation, 1.83x TTM sales, 3.80x book value, and a 5.58% FCF yield. The P/E is above the historical median for this sub-industry. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CVCO sits below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages with 14-day RSI near 41 to 43, reflecting a mildly weak technical setup after the post-earnings pullback, though the 100-day average near $533 provides nearby support. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium to elevated because factory-built housing demand depends on subprime credit availability, mortgage rates, and affordability, and Q1 FY2027 showed gross margin pressure from tariffs and competitive retail pricing. The low debt level provides a buffer but does not eliminate earnings cyclicality. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financial facts and valuation math, medium for the three-year earnings growth assumptions and technical trading setup. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium. CVCO is a conservatively run business in a cyclical industry with improving order flow, but the valuation near 24x EPS and the margin slide leave limited room for error if the housing market softens. | Medium |
CVCO AI stock forecast
The CVCO AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $550.93 August 3, 2026 price and TTM EPS of $22.99, audited with financial_rigor.py, with a second pass using the FY2027 analyst EPS estimate of $22.75. The model produced a bullish value near $810, a base value near $569, and a bearish value near $276 in the primary pass, and a bullish value near $787, a base value near $542, and a bearish value near $246 using the analyst EPS basis.
$780 to $850
More likely if order momentum continues, backlogs keep expanding, capacity utilization rises toward the sustainable range, gross margins stabilize as tariffs and input costs are absorbed, financial services income grows, and the market re-rates CVCO toward a premium multiple on consistent execution and the ROAD to Housing Act tailwind.
$540 to $620
More likely if EPS compounds near 4% to 6%, demand holds at current levels, gross margin stabilizes near the low-20s percentage range, and the market values CVCO around 20x to 22x earnings, roughly in line with the $625 average analyst price target.
$245 to $320
More likely if affordability worsens, subprime credit tightens, tariffs and input costs compress gross margin further, order momentum fades, or investors rerate manufactured housing stocks toward recession-level multiples near 13x to 14x earnings.
CVCO AI technical analysis
CVCO AI technical analysis is mixed to mildly weak as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis.com showed CVCO at $550.93 with a $547.75 to $561.96 day range and a $397.38 to $713.01 52-week range. The stock sits below its 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages after the Q1 FY2027 report, with 14-day RSI near 41 on StockAnalysis.com and 43 on Barchart, and a low ADX near 14.7 on Barchart suggesting a range rather than a strong trend.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $550.93 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 10:33 AM EDT reading, up 0.71% from the $547.03 prior close after opening at $548.44. |
| Near support | $540 to $548 | The $547.03 prior close and the lower end of the recent post-earnings trading range form a first support zone. A break below it would target the $520 to $530 area. |
| Key support | $520 to $535 | The 100-day moving average near $533.09 on Barchart and the $520 psychological zone provide the next support cluster below the current price. |
| Lower support | $500 | A psychologically important level near the February 2026 reaction low. A close below it would weaken the medium-term structure and target the $450 to $470 area. |
| 52-week low | $397.38 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance list the 52-week low at $397.38, the worst-case drawdown reference from the past year. |
| Near resistance | $570 to $575 | The 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $567.30 and $570.61 on Barchart cap the near-term upside after the post-earnings decline. |
| Major resistance | $600 to $620 | The stock has struggled to reclaim this zone since the post-earnings decline. A reclaim would shift the near-term bias from neutral to constructive. |
| 52-week high | $713.01 | StockAnalysis.com lists the 52-week high at $713.01, the level a confirmed breakout would need to exceed. |
| Moving averages | Below 5, 20, 50, and 200-day averages | Barchart reported the 5-day at $563.14, 20-day at $567.30, 50-day at $570.61, 200-day at $558.30, and 100-day at $533.09 on August 3, 2026, with StockAnalysis.com close on the 50-day at $569.47 and 200-day at $558.10. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41 to 43 | 14-day RSI was near 41.22 on StockAnalysis.com and 43.32 on Barchart, neutral to mildly weak, while 14-day ADX near 14.69 on Barchart suggested a range rather than a strong trend. |
| Volume | About 105K to 107K average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 105,494 shares and StockAnalysis.com near 107,213 on August 3, 2026, useful for checking breakout or breakdown quality. |
| Volatility | Elevated | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 32.26% and 14-day ATR near $21.20, so position sizing should account for larger swings around reports and macro moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $520 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average near $533 and the $520 zone would weaken the range-bound framework; a close below $500 would turn it bearish. |
CVCO AI trading strategy
The CVCO AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a low-debt manufactured homebuilder with improving order flow and steady financial services income. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, current order data, gross margin trends, affordability metrics, and position sizing.
Watch for CVCO to reclaim and hold above $570 to $575 with stronger volume, then confirm with a move through the $600 to $620 zone. Confirmation should include stable or improving gross margins, continued backlog growth, no tariff-driven cost surprises, and consistent buyback or capital return activity.
A failed rally that reverses below $520 should reduce confidence because the stock would remain below its key moving averages without direction.
If CVCO pulls back toward $500 to $530 without an earnings miss or credit market disruption, the setup becomes a value review within the context of a conservatively financed business with a growing backlog and steady financial services income.
Do not average down solely because the balance sheet is clean. Manufactured housing orders and gross margins can weaken before headline earnings reflect the change.
Track quarterly order volumes, backlog (reported at $298 million after Q1 FY2027), capacity utilization near 75%, average selling price, factory-built housing gross margin near 20.8%, financial services segment income, tariff and input cost impacts near $5 million, cash, debt, share count, and the next earnings date (estimated late October 2026).
Reduce confidence if gross margin keeps falling, backlog growth stalls, order momentum fades, financial services income slows, or management provides cautious demand commentary.
Investment research summary
Cavco is paid when households buy factory-built homes and when the company attaches mortgage, title, insurance, and related financial services. The customer is buying an affordable path to homeownership with design choices and delivery speed that site-built homes cannot match at the same price point, and Q1 FY2027 was the first quarter in company history with revenue above $600 million.
CVCO has manufacturing scale, a network of factories, multiple brands (Cavco, Fleetwood, Palm Harbor), retail distribution, and financial services capture. The moat is real but cyclical, because manufactured housing credit availability, affordability, and consumer confidence drive demand more than brand differentiation.
The thesis fails if subprime credit tightens, tariffs and input costs keep compressing gross margin, order momentum fades, affordability keeps weakening, used-home inventory competes with new units, or the financial services segment faces adverse claims or credit losses. Q1 FY2027 already showed factory-built housing gross margin down to 20.8% from 22.6%.
Management has maintained a conservative balance sheet with about $220 million of net cash, steady financial services income, and a growing backlog. CEO William C. Boor has led the company for over a decade, repurchased about $30 million of stock in Q1 FY2027, and has deployed over $600 million in buybacks over about five years, retiring over 19% of shares outstanding.
The long-term trend supports manufactured housing as an affordable solution to the U.S. housing shortage, reinforced by the passing of the bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act and state-level zoning reforms. The near-term cycle is still dominated by mortgage rates, subprime lending conditions, consumer confidence, and tariff-driven input costs.
The verified valuation at about 24x TTM earnings is above the sub-industry median. The margin of safety depends on whether current EPS is at a mid-cycle or peak level and on whether gross margins stabilize. The clean balance sheet and growing backlog provide downside protection, but the entry price limits upside return potential.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CVCO price | $550.93 at the August 3, 2026, 10:33 AM EDT reading, up 0.71% from the $547.03 prior close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $4.24 billion reported, $4.25 billion verified by price times shares | StockAnalysis.com quote and financial_rigor.py market cap check | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 7.71 million | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 revenue | $610 million, up 9.5% from $557 million, the highest quarter in company history | Cavco Q1 FY2027 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 EPS | Diluted EPS of $5.43, below the $5.55 consensus, versus $6.42 in the prior year quarter | Cavco Q1 FY2027 earnings release and TheFly | July 30, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 backlog | $298 million, up more than 50% from $195 million a year ago, representing 7 to 9 weeks of production | Cavco Q1 FY2027 earnings release and earnings call | July 31, 2026 |
| Gross margin | Factory-built housing gross margin 20.8% in Q1 FY2027 versus 22.6% a year ago; financial services gross margin 52.4% versus 40.9% | Cavco Q1 FY2027 earnings release | July 30, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | TTM revenue about $2.30 billion up 9.7% and TTM net income about $181.18 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM EPS | $22.99 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $261.47 million cash and cash equivalents, $41.11 million total debt, about $220.36 million net cash as of June 27, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Cavco Q1 FY2027 balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 24.05, forward PE 22.67, PS 1.83, PB 3.80, P/FCF 17.93, EV/EBITDA 16.23 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | TTM free cash flow about $234.66 million, or $30.52 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $625 across 3 analysts; targets range from $575 to $700 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | $540 to $548 near support, $570 to $575 near resistance, $600 to $620 major resistance, $713.01 52-week high, 100-day average near $533 as key support | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart | August 3, 2026 |
This CVCO AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and can be wrong if manufactured housing demand, subprime credit conditions, interest rates, tariffs, gross margins, or market valuation changes.
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