Centuri Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
CTRI AI stock analysis currently reads Centuri Holdings as a utility and energy infrastructure services platform that builds, maintains, and modernizes electric and natural gas networks for regulated utilities across the United States and Canada. At the August 4, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $27.86 on August 3, 2026 and the market capitalization was about $2.81 billion. The company has been an independent public entity since its April 2024 spin-off from Southwest Gas Holdings and has reported TTM revenue of roughly $3.16 billion with TTM net income near $30.8 million. Q1 2026 revenue of $723.2 million grew 31% year over year, gross profit rose 76% to $35.8 million, bookings were $1.3 billion, and backlog reached a record $6.5 billion, up 44% year over year, while the company reiterated its full year 2026 guidance. The central question is whether Centuri can convert its record backlog, utility capital spending tailwinds, and data center related demand into durable margin expansion and positive free cash flow, and whether the current price, about 35% below the May 2026 high of $42.99, adequately reflects both the growth opportunity and the risks of a recently public, leveraged, labor intensive business. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026 before market open, so the analysis below uses Q1 2026 as the latest reported quarter. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$27.86
Market cap
$2.81 billion
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Utility infrastructure services provider with a record $6.5 billion backlog, 31% revenue growth in Q1 2026, improving leverage, and a wide operating footprint, balanced by thin GAAP profitability, negative trailing free cash flow, customer concentration, and a price still well below its May 2026 high
Trend status
Traded at $27.86 as of the August 3, 2026 close, about 35% below the 52-week high of $42.99 set in early May 2026 and well above the $19.04 low, with the stock recovering from a late-July pullback toward $24 and Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Centuri provides essential maintenance, modernization, emergency response, and construction services to regulated utility customers under master service agreements and project contracts. Demand is structural because utilities must upgrade aging gas and electric infrastructure, harden grids, and support electrification and data center loads, but individual project timing, storm work, and scope can vary by quarter. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from long-standing utility relationships, a seven-company operating footprint across gas, electric, union, and non-union markets in the U.S. and Canada, safety and regulatory credentials built over decades, and the scale to win large multi-state projects. This is an execution and relationship moat rather than a technology or brand moat, and competitive bidding plus union labor dynamics remain factors. | Medium |
| Management | Centuri is led by an experienced team, including President and CEO Christian Brown, with a new long-term framework (Vision One Centuri) targeting 10% to 15% base revenue CAGR and 12% to 19% base gross profit CAGR through 2029. The key tests are converting the record backlog into margins, managing labor costs and availability, executing acquisitions such as the J.J. White purchase for data center and union electric work, and sustaining the deleveraging path while the company builds its record as a standalone public company. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue through March 2026 is approximately $3.16 billion, with TTM net income near $30.8 million but heavy depreciation, amortization, and interest costs limiting GAAP profitability. Q1 2026 revenue grew 31%, gross profit rose 76%, adjusted EBITDA increased 34% to $32.6 million, bookings were $1.3 billion, and backlog reached a record $6.5 billion, while net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 2.7x from 3.5x a year earlier. Trailing free cash flow was negative, partly due to working capital and fleet investment. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $27.86, CTRI trades at roughly 84x trailing GAAP EPS, about 3.3x book value, roughly 0.9x sales, and about 13.9x trailing EV/EBITDA using an enterprise value near $3.69 billion. The GAAP P/E is distorted by high D&A and is not a good standalone measure; EV/EBITDA and forward earnings are more relevant. A three-scenario model using forward EBITDA produced a bull case around $38 to $42, a base case near $29 to $34, and a bear case near $17 to $21, with the base case only modestly above the current price. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CTRI closed at $27.86 on August 3, 2026, about 35% below the 52-week high of $42.99 reached in early May 2026, and well above the $19.04 low. The price sits slightly below both the 50-day average near $28.86 and the 200-day average near $28.13, and the RSI is near 50.8, which is roughly neutral. The limited post-IPO history still makes technical analysis less reliable than for stocks with multiyear patterns. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated. Key risks include customer concentration, union labor cost and availability, project and storm timing variability, negative trailing free cash flow, net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.7x that still limits financial flexibility, thin GAAP margins, limited public track record, short interest near 3.2% of shares outstanding, and sensitivity to interest rates and utility capital spending budgets. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for the verified price, market cap, backlog, revenue, bookings, share count, analyst consensus, and technical snapshot. Confidence is low to medium for forward earnings, adjusted EBITDA margin trends, and intrinsic valuation, because the public history is short, GAAP earnings are depressed by non-cash charges, free cash flow is volatile, and the project based model adds quarterly noise. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is low to medium. Centuri has a record backlog, strong near-term growth, and an improving leverage trend, but thin GAAP profitability, negative trailing free cash flow, elevated leverage, and customer concentration mean the stock rewards a continued favorable execution path more than it protects against surprises. The current price already discounts much of the good news. | Low-medium |
CTRI AI stock forecast
The CTRI AI stock forecast uses forward EBITDA and adjusted earnings as the base because GAAP net income is depressed by depreciation and amortization. The bullish case becomes more likely if backlog converts into margin expansion, data center and electric work accelerates, labor costs stay manageable, the J.J. White acquisition integrates well, and net debt keeps falling toward the 1.0x to 2.0x long-term target. The bearish case becomes more likely if project timing slips, margins fail to expand, free cash flow stays negative, labor costs rise faster than contract escalation, or the stock loses the post-IPO growth premium. The 2026 guidance midpoint implies adjusted EBITDA of roughly $295 million, with a 9% to 17% adjusted EBITDA CAGR targeted through 2029.
$38 to $42
More likely if adjusted EBITDA reaches about $380 million on strong backlog conversion, data center related electric work, and margin expansion toward the 8.7% to 9.7% base gross profit margin target, and the market holds a multiple near 13x EV/EBITDA. The verified model produced a bull-case target in this range.
$29 to $34
More likely if adjusted EBITDA grows to roughly $330 million along the 2026 guidance path with stable margins, book-to-bill stays near the 1.1x to 1.2x target, and the market applies a multiple near 12x to 13x EV/EBITDA. This range is close to analyst targets near $36.58 and modestly above the current price.
$17 to $21
More likely if adjusted EBITDA stays near $285 million or below on project delays, labor inflation, margin pressure, or weaker utility spending, free cash flow remains negative, and the multiple contracts toward 10x EV/EBITDA. The verified model produced a bear case in this range.
CTRI AI technical analysis
CTRI AI technical analysis starts from the $27.86 close on August 3, 2026. The stock has traded publicly only since April 2024, so the technical history is limited. Google Finance and StockAnalysis reported a 52-week range of roughly $19.04 to $42.99, with the high reached in early May 2026 around the Q1 earnings release. The 50-day average is near $28.86, the 200-day average is near $28.13, RSI is about 50.8, and short interest is near 3.23% of shares outstanding. Barchart lists first resistance at $28.53, second resistance at $29.19, and third resistance at $29.75, with support at $27.31, $26.75, and $26.09. These are a dated snapshot from the August 3, 2026 close and should be refreshed after Q2 2026 results, which were scheduled for August 4, 2026, and after material news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.86 | Latest verified regular-session close used for this page, reported for August 3, 2026. |
| Near support | $26.75 to $27.31 | Barchart first and second support levels. Holding above this zone keeps the recent recovery from the July low intact. |
| Key support | $24.00 to $26.00 | The stock pulled back to about $24.16 in late July 2026. A close below the July low would retest the broader range toward the 52-week low of $19.04. |
| Near resistance | $28.53 to $29.75 | Barchart first, second, and third resistance levels. The 50-day average near $28.86 sits inside this zone, so a sustained move above it would be a constructive signal. |
| Secondary resistance | $33.00 to $35.00 | This zone sits near the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the range and closer to the lower end of analyst price targets near $36.58. |
| 52-week high | $42.99 | Set in early May 2026 around the Q1 earnings release. A move back above $35 would be needed before the high becomes a realistic target. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $28.86, 200-day near $28.13 | The price is slightly below both averages, which keeps the medium-term trend mixed until price closes clearly above the 50-day. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50.8 | RSI is roughly neutral, leaving room for the stock to resolve either direction after the recovery from the July low. |
| Volume | Average about 1.5M to 1.65M shares | Volume near 2.6M on August 3, 2026 was above average. Watch whether upside moves attract volume and downside moves do not. |
| Short interest | About 3.23% of shares outstanding | Short interest near 3.26 million shares can amplify both downside moves and squeeze rallies, especially around earnings. |
| Post-IPO context | Public since April 2024 | The short price history reduces the reliability of moving averages and pattern analysis compared to longer-tenured stocks. |
| Invalidation | Close below $24 or weak guidance | A close below the July 2026 low near $24.16, a miss on Q2 2026 results or guidance, a margin setback, or a debt covenant issue would weaken the base case. |
CTRI AI trading strategy
The CTRI AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be monitored through live price, Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026, quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA trends, backlog, bookings, book-to-bill, customer concentration, labor costs, debt and free cash flow trends, data center award activity, and utility capital spending indicators.
Track whether CTRI can close above the $28.86 to $29.75 resistance zone with improving volume, then hold gains above the 50-day average. Confirmation improves if Q2 2026 results show continued revenue growth, margin expansion, and backlog stability, and if new data center or electric awards are announced.
Reduce confidence if price falls back below the $26.75 to $27.31 support zone, if Q2 2026 margins disappoint, if free cash flow deteriorates further, or if utility spending outlooks weaken.
Treat a pullback toward the $26 to $24 zone as a watchlist condition only if Q2 2026 results show stable or improving adjusted EBITDA, backlog stays near or above $6.5 billion, book-to-bill remains near the 1.1x to 1.2x target, and there is no deterioration in customer relationships or debt metrics.
Do not treat the 35% drop from the May high or the low trailing GAAP P/E as automatic value signals. Thin margins, negative trailing free cash flow, customer concentration, and project timing risk can keep the stock volatile even with strong revenue.
Track quarterly revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA and margins, free cash flow, bookings and book-to-bill, backlog, contract wins by segment and by major customer, data center related awards, debt and net debt to adjusted EBITDA, labor cost trends, the J.J. White integration, and utility industry capital spending forecasts.
A combination of margin contraction, rising net debt, customer losses, project delays, negative free cash flow, or a close below $24 would override a bullish chart setup.
Investment research summary
Centuri is paid by regulated utility companies to build, maintain, and modernize their electric and natural gas infrastructure, with growing exposure to distributed power and data center related work. Customers pay because utilities need specialized labor, safety credentials, equipment, and geographic coverage that is often more efficient to outsource than to build internally. The Q1 2026 figures show the model working: revenue up 31%, gross profit up 76%, and record backlog. Question: if utilities bring more work in house or if lower cost competitors undercut on price, what protects Centuri's revenue and margins?
The moat comes from multiyear customer relationships, a seven-company operating model spanning gas, electric, union, and non-union markets across the U.S. and Canada, safety and regulatory credentials built over more than a century of operations, and the scale to handle large, complex projects. Brand and switching costs are modest, and there is no patent or technology barrier. The J.J. White acquisition and data center awards show management using scale to expand into faster growing niches. Question: will these relationship and scale advantages persist as utility procurement becomes more competitive and technology driven?
The thesis can fail through customer concentration (a few large utilities represent a significant share of revenue), union labor cost inflation or shortage, project and storm timing variability that makes quarterly results unpredictable, negative free cash flow despite revenue growth, high debt leverage that limits financial flexibility, thin GAAP profitability that obscures the cash reality of the business, the short post-IPO track record, and the risk that utility capital spending growth slows with rate regulation or economic conditions. Question: where is an analyst most likely to confuse strong backlog growth with a durable, high-margin competitive advantage?
Centuri's management team, led by President and CEO Christian Brown, has deep utility and infrastructure experience and has laid out a clear long-term plan: 10% to 15% base revenue CAGR, 12% to 19% base gross profit CAGR, and adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 9% to 17% through 2029, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA targeted at 1.0x to 2.0x. The key capital-allocation tests are whether the company can convert its record backlog into margins, keep labor costs under control, integrate acquisitions such as J.J. White, and generate positive free cash flow while maintaining safety and quality. Question: could the strategy survive if key operational leaders departed or if a large customer cut its program?
The utility infrastructure services industry benefits from aging gas and electric networks that need modernization, grid hardening, electrification, distributed power, and growing data center demand. The company reported more than $360 million in customer awards in June 2026, including a $125 million data center award, and a 44% year-over-year increase in backlog to $6.5 billion. The long-term trend is favorable, but the pace depends on utility rate cases, regulatory decisions, interest rates, and economic conditions. Question: viewed from twenty years ahead, does Centuri own irreplaceable infrastructure service capabilities, or is it a scalable but low-margin labor provider in a cyclical end-market?
At $27.86, CTRI trades at roughly 13.9x trailing EV/EBITDA and about 37x forward earnings, which is a premium that reflects the backlog growth and deleveraging story. A three-scenario model using forward EBITDA suggests the base case is near $29 to $34, the bull case is $38 to $42, and the bear case is $17 to $21, with analyst targets averaging about $36.58. The price already discounts a good deal of the growth, so the margin of safety depends on execution. Question: if the market closed for five years, would the current price look attractive based on the backlog pipeline, margin targets, and debt reduction, or would thin margins, negative free cash flow, and project risk erode equity value?
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CTRI price | $27.86 close on August 3, 2026 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | About $2.81 billion, verified as approximately $27.86 x 100.94 million shares; calculation variance versus reported market cap was 0.08% | Google Finance and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 100.94 million shares (100.93 million per StockAnalysis) | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $3.16 billion based on quarterly data from Q2 2025 ($724M), Q3 2025 ($850M), Q4 2025 ($859M), and Q1 2026 ($723M) | Google Finance quarterly income statement | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | Approximately $30.8 million net income and $0.33 EPS, based on quarterly net income of $8.05M (Q2 2025), $2.10M (Q3 2025), $30.18M (Q4 2025), and -$9.53M (Q1 2026). Trailing P/E near 84x. | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM EBITDA | Approximately $265.9 million per StockAnalysis (S&P Global data); Google Finance quarterly EBITDA components sum to about $245 million, with the difference reflecting methodology. EV/EBITDA is about 13.9x on the larger figure. | StockAnalysis.com and Google Finance | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 quarterly results | Revenue $723.2 million, up 31% year over year; gross profit $35.8 million, up 76%; adjusted EBITDA $32.6 million, up 34%; net loss $9.5 million; bookings $1.3 billion with a book-to-bill of 1.8x; record backlog of $6.5 billion, up 44% year over year | Centuri Q1 2026 press release, May 6, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 financial guidance | Revenue of $3.24 to $3.54 billion; adjusted EBITDA of $280 to $310 million; adjusted net income of $55 to $75 million; base revenue of $3.15 to $3.45 billion; net capital expenditures of $75 to $90 million; book-to-bill target of 1.1x to 1.2x | Centuri Q1 2026 press release, May 6, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Long-term targets | Through 2029: base revenue CAGR of 10% to 15%, base gross profit CAGR of 12% to 19%, adjusted EBITDA CAGR of 9% to 17%, adjusted EPS CAGR of 30% to 45%, base gross profit margin of 8.7% to 9.7%, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 1.0x to 2.0x | Centuri Vision One Centuri strategy presentation, May 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of about $60.3 million, total debt of about $940.9 million, net debt of about $880.6 million, equity of about $868.1 million, book value per share of $8.55, debt/equity of 1.08, and net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.7x as of Q1 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Centuri Q1 2026 results | August 4, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | Trailing free cash flow of approximately -$55.8 million on operating cash flow of $26.4 million and capital expenditures of -$82.2 million; management targets 40% to 50% free cash flow conversion from adjusted EBITDA by 2029 | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $19.04 to $42.99 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Average volume and beta | Average volume of about 1.65 million shares (Google Finance) and about 1.53 million over 20 days (StockAnalysis); beta of 1.07 | Google Finance and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Google Finance: 6 analysts, 3 Buy, 2 Hold, 1 Sell, average 12-month target of $37.20 with a range of $26 to $46. StockAnalysis: 7 analysts, Buy consensus, average target of $36.58 with a range of $26 to $46. Barchart: Moderate Buy. Recent actions include JPMorgan lowering its target to $26 (July 21, 2026) and Wells Fargo maintaining Buy at $37. | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | About 3.26 million shares sold short, equal to about 3.23% of shares outstanding, down from about 4.47 million the prior month, with days to cover of about 2.0 | StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings timing | Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026 before market open, with consensus estimates near $0.20 EPS and $836 million revenue; not yet reported at this data cutoff, so Q1 2026 remains the latest reported quarter | Google Finance and Barchart | August 4, 2026 |
| Company description and operations | Centuri Holdings is a utility and energy infrastructure services company with about 9,700 employees across seven operating companies and four reportable segments: U.S. Gas Utility Services, Canadian Operations, Union Electric Utility Services, and Non-Union Electric Utility Services. It serves electric, gas, and combination utilities, plus distributed power and data center end markets, across the United States and Canada. | StockAnalysis.com and Centuri investor relations | August 4, 2026 |
| IPO and public history | Centuri was spun off from Southwest Gas Holdings and began trading as an independent public company on April 18, 2024 at an IPO price of $21.00. The company is headquartered in Phoenix, Arizona and its operating companies trace their history to 1909. CEO is Christian Brown and CFO is Gregory Izenstark. | StockAnalysis.com and Centuri investor relations | August 4, 2026 |
| Data source gap | Beta, RSI, moving averages, and other technical indicators are less reliable given the limited post-IPO price history. Pre-IPO financial data is on a carve-out or pro forma basis. Adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS are non-GAAP measures and exclude storm restoration timing effects. EBITDA differs between sources (about $245M on Google quarterly components versus about $265.9M per S&P Global), and leverage data reflects the Q1 2026 balance sheet. Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026 but were not yet reported at the cutoff. | Google Finance, StockAnalysis.com, Barchart, and Centuri filings | August 4, 2026 |
This CTRI AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff and may be wrong if financial results, utility capital spending, Q2 2026 results and guidance, contract timing, labor costs, interest rates, customer relationships, debt levels, free cash flow, or market conditions change. CTRI has a limited public trading history since its April 2024 spin-off, and Q2 2026 results were scheduled for August 4, 2026 but had not been reported at the time this analysis was prepared, which makes valuation comparisons and trend analysis less reliable than for established public companies.
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