Carlisle Companies Incorporated research snapshot
CSL AI stock analysis currently reads Carlisle Companies as a high-quality North American building envelope supplier with strong free cash flow, disciplined capital returns, and a durable re-roofing franchise inside commercial roofing. As of the July 10, 2026 company quote near $330.09, the stock is well off its 52-week high near $435.92 after a soft construction backdrop and a sharp early-July price drop. The CSL AI stock forecast depends on re-roof demand, pricing power against petrochemical inflation, Vision 2030 margin execution, buybacks, and whether new construction stays weak longer than the base case.
Current price
$330.09
Market cap
About $13.36 billion calculated from $330.09 x 40.47 million shares, matching CNBC and Yahoo market data near $13.35 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality building envelope compounder, soft new construction cycle, moderate valuation after drawdown
Trend status
Fundamentals remain resilient on re-roofing and margins, while price is weak after a sharp July pullback below prior mid-year levels
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Carlisle sells roofing systems, insulation, weatherproofing, and related building envelope products that contractors need for commercial re-roofing, energy efficiency upgrades, and new construction projects. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand positions in commercial roofing, distribution relationships, product systems that reduce labor, scale purchasing, the Carlisle Experience service model, and a large re-roofing installed base. | Medium-high |
| Management | Chair, President, and CEO Chris Koch continues to emphasize Vision 2030, COS productivity, innovation, acquisitions when available, and aggressive share repurchases when M&A is scarce. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was roughly flat at $5.02 billion with continuing-operations diluted EPS of $17.16 and free cash flow of $972 million, while Q1 2026 revenue fell 4% but adjusted EPS rose 1% on margin discipline and buybacks. | High |
| Valuation | At $330.09, CSL trades near 19.3x trailing EPS of about $17.09, roughly 13.7x FY2025 free cash flow per share, and about 7.4x year-end book value per share using audited math inputs. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Price is weak after falling from the mid-$360s into the low $330s, sitting far below the 52-week high near $436 and closer to the $293 to $325 support zone. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are commercial and residential construction cycles, weather, petrochemical and freight inflation, acquisition integration, higher interest expense after debt and buybacks, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because official filings and market data match closely. Return confidence is lower because CSL remains exposed to construction activity and investor multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CSL looks like a strong operator in an essential niche, but the margin of safety is moderate rather than high until volume stabilizes and the stock proves it can hold support after the July drawdown. | Medium |
CSL AI stock forecast
The CSL AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $330.09 price reference and trailing EPS near $17.09. The audited three-year model produced a bullish area near $500.40, a base area near $356.10, and a bearish area near $205.10 before dividends. These are scenario anchors, not exact predictions.
$480 to $510
More likely if re-roof demand stays solid, price increases stick against petrochemical inflation, revenue grows at a high-single-digit to low-double-digit EPS pace through buybacks, adjusted EBITDA margin expands, and investors value CSL near a low-20s earnings multiple.
$340 to $370
More likely if management delivers low-single-digit revenue growth, about 50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, continued buybacks toward the $1 billion 2026 target, and the market keeps a high-teens earnings multiple.
$195 to $215
More likely if new construction and re-roof volumes weaken together, raw-material inflation outruns pricing, free cash flow falls, debt stays elevated after repurchases, or the market re-rates CSL toward a low-teens earnings multiple.
CSL AI technical analysis
CSL AI technical analysis is weak as of the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. Company IR listed CSL near $330.09 with a 52-week range of $293.43 to $435.92. Earlier July technical snapshots when the stock was still in the mid-$360s showed RSI near 48 to 53 and 50-day and 200-day averages near the $345 to $352 area, levels that now act as overhead resistance after the pullback.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $330.09 | Company IR quote reference used for market-cap and valuation math on July 10, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $320 to $326 | AltIndex previously flagged multi-month support near $325.67 when price was higher. That band is now the first defense under the current quote. |
| Deeper support | $293 to $300 | The 52-week low near $293.43 is the key invalidation floor for the current multi-month range. |
| Near resistance | $345 to $360 | Prior 50-day and 200-day averages from early July and the mid-$350s to mid-$360s supply the first upside reclaim zone. |
| Moving averages | Early July references showed SMA50 near $350 to $352 and SMA200 near $345 to $353 when price was higher | After the drop to about $330, those averages sit above the market and keep the short-term trend under pressure until reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI roughly mid-40s to low-50s on early July snapshots, then weaker after the selloff | Momentum was neutral before the July break; the subsequent slide leaves the near-term trend soft rather than confirmed oversold. |
| Volume | Average volume near 0.44 to 0.66 million shares on major market data feeds | Use volume confirmation to judge whether a reclaim of the $345 to $360 band has follow-through. |
| Volatility | Beta near 0.85 and 52-week range of about $293 to $436 | Beta is below the market, but the wide 52-week range shows CSL can still swing hard around construction headlines and rate expectations. |
| Invalidation | Close below $320, then below $293 | A close below $320 would weaken the base case. A break of the 52-week low near $293 would challenge the multi-month technical structure. |
CSL AI trading strategy
The CSL AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal financial advice. It combines re-roof and new-construction demand checks, pricing versus input-cost monitoring, free cash flow and buyback tracking, valuation ranges, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for CSL to reclaim the $345 to $360 resistance zone while quarterly data confirms low-single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, pricing traction, and continued buybacks toward the $1 billion 2026 target.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $320 should reduce setup confidence because price would remain below prior mid-year moving-average references.
If CSL pulls back toward $293 to $300 without a cut to full-year outlook or evidence of structural margin damage, compare the valuation reset with free cash flow, buybacks, dividend support, and re-roof demand.
Do not treat the pullback as attractive if organic volumes keep falling, petrochemical inflation outruns price increases, free cash flow weakens, or net debt rises without matching EBITDA growth.
Track CCM versus CWT organic revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin, re-roof commentary, price and surcharge actions, free cash flow, cash and net debt, share count reduction, dividends, and Vision 2030 progress toward $40 adjusted EPS.
Position sizing should reflect that CSL is still tied to construction cycles and input-cost swings even when re-roof demand is more durable than new builds.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Carlisle because commercial and residential buildings need reliable roofing, insulation, weatherproofing, and energy-efficient envelope systems. Roughly 70% of the commercial roofing franchise is tied to re-roofing and maintenance of an aging building stock rather than pure new construction.
CSL benefits from leading positions in North American building products, system-level offerings that reduce installer labor, distribution and contractor relationships, brand trust, scale purchasing, and COS-driven manufacturing discipline. The moat is operational and channel-based rather than pure network effects.
The thesis fails if re-roof demand slows, new construction stays soft for longer, raw-material inflation destroys margins, acquisitions dilute returns, leverage rises after aggressive buybacks, or investors stop paying a premium for a cyclical building-products compounder.
Management has focused on Vision 2030, innovation, COS productivity, selective acquisitions, and large buybacks when M&A is scarce. In 2025 Carlisle returned about $1.5 billion to shareholders through $1.3 billion of repurchases and $181 million of dividends, and it still targets up to $1 billion of buybacks in 2026.
Carlisle sits in long-term demand for energy-efficient buildings, labor-saving products, and maintenance of an aging non-residential stock. The offset is that construction activity remains tied to rates, housing affordability, weather, and commercial project timing.
At roughly 19.3x trailing earnings and about 13.7x FY2025 free cash flow per share, CSL is no longer priced like a peak-multiple favorite after the drawdown from the mid-$400s. Margin of safety still depends on volume stabilization, pricing power, free cash flow durability, and continued per-share growth through buybacks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CSL quote reference | $330.09 company IR quote on July 10, 2026, with 52-week range $293.43 to $435.92 | Carlisle investor stock information page | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $13.36 billion calculated from $330.09 x 40.47 million shares, within 0.04% of reported market data near $13.35 billion | Pineify financial_rigor.py with CNBC and Yahoo share data | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 40.47 million shares outstanding on major market data feeds | CNBC CSL quote statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | $5.020 billion revenue, $742.5 million income from continuing operations, diluted EPS from continuing operations $17.16, adjusted EPS $19.40, and adjusted EBITDA $1.225 billion | Carlisle Q4 2025 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment revenue | CCM $3.722 billion and CWT $1.298 billion, with re-roofing described as about 70% of commercial roofing | Carlisle Q4 2025 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital returns | FY2025 operating cash flow $1.102 billion, free cash flow from continuing operations $972 million, share repurchases $1.3 billion, and dividends $181 million | Carlisle Q4 2025 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash $1.112 billion and long-term debt $2.886 billion at year-end 2025; cash $771 million and debt $2.889 billion at March 31, 2026 after a tax settlement and buybacks | Carlisle Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 earnings releases | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 performance | Revenue $1.052 billion, down 4%; diluted EPS $3.10; adjusted EPS $3.63, up 1%; adjusted EBITDA margin 22.3%, up 50 bps; $250 million of share repurchases | Carlisle Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Management reaffirmed low-single-digit revenue growth and about 50 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, with up to $1 billion of planned 2026 share repurchases | Carlisle Q1 2026 earnings release | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing P/E about 19.31 using $330.09 and $17.09 TTM EPS, FCF yield about 7.3% using FY2025 free cash flow per share near $24.03, and dividend yield about 1.33% on a $4.40 annual dividend | Pineify financial_rigor.py with Yahoo Finance and company data | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Early July technical snapshots showed RSI near 48 to 53, SMA50 near $350 to $352, and SMA200 near $345 to $353 before the later slide toward $330 | Chartmill and AltIndex technical pages for CSL | July 10, 2026 |
| Vision 2030 target | Management continues to target $40 of adjusted EPS and 25% plus ROIC under Vision 2030 | Carlisle Q1 2026 earnings commentary | July 10, 2026 |
This CSL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 10, 2026 and can be wrong if fundamentals, market prices, interest rates, construction demand, or investor sentiment change.
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