Bullish case
$42 to $46
More likely if EPS compounds near 8% for three years, insurance volumes stabilize, record U.S. insurance ASPs hold, international revenue grows at a double-digit pace, and the market values CPRT near 22x earnings.
Copart, Inc. research snapshot
CPRT AI Stock Analysis
CPRT AI stock analysis currently reads Copart, Inc. as a profitable global online vehicle auction platform with a fortress balance sheet, high margins, a large buyer network, and real cyclical pressure from insurance claim volumes, used-vehicle conditions, and a leadership handover. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the verified market snapshot used here was about $29.12 per share, a $26.96 billion market capitalization, 925.81 million shares outstanding, and trailing EPS near $1.61. The stock is not being treated as a certain bargain or a certain short. The central question is whether Copart can restore unit and revenue growth while holding pricing power, liquidity, and operating margins after a roughly 37% drawdown from the 52-week high. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$29.12
Market cap
$26.96 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality auction platform with flat revenue, soft insurance volumes, a completed CEO transition, and a compressed valuation
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, recently testing a 52-week low near $26.81
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Copart has long public filings, current earnings releases, market data, technical data, analyst coverage, and a mid-cycle investor update with management color across insurance, whole car, and international remarketing.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is treating the drawdown and the soft insurance volume narrative as permanent while under-weighting the fortress balance sheet, over $1.6 billion of buybacks, record U.S. insurance ASPs, and international growth. This page separates business quality from current technical weakness and near-term growth uncertainty.
- ai Confidence
- High for current price, market cap math, Q3 FY2026 financials, cash, equity, moving averages, analyst targets, and CEO transition facts. Medium for forward returns because insurance claim volumes, consumer coverage choices, and the new CEO strategy are still unfolding.
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business model and balance sheet are well documented, but investment certainty depends on insurance unit volume recovery, ASP durability, international execution, buyback discipline, and the multiple investors assign to a slower-growing marketplace.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Copart connects vehicle sellers with about 1 million members in more than 185 countries through online auctions and remarketing services, selling more than 4 million units over the last year. | High |
| Moat | Moat comes from buyer liquidity across 160+ countries, global yard coverage, insurer relationships, auction technology, vehicle data, scale, and process trust. | High |
| Management | Jay Adair became CEO on July 31, 2026 after Jeff Liaw stepped down, with Jane Pocock promoted to President; Adair intends to lead for more than 10 years. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 2.1%, gross profit grew 3.7%, and net income attributable to Copart declined 1.0%; TTM revenue was nearly flat at about $4.64 billion. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.12 and $1.61 EPS, CPRT traded near 18.1x earnings, 3.07x book value, 5.8x sales, and a 5% free cash flow yield using audited and quarterly inputs. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock was below both its 50-day moving average near $29.96 and its 200-day moving average near $35.87, with RSI near 50 after testing a 52-week low of $26.81. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are soft insurance claim volumes, consumer coverage pullback, used-car price pressure, competitive fee pressure, international execution, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filing-backed financials, share count, market-cap math, cash, liquidity, moving averages, and analyst consensus. Lower confidence for auction volume recovery and the new CEO strategy. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Copart is a durable platform, but the stock needs evidence that insurance volumes and revenue growth can resume before the current discount is closed. | Medium |
CPRT AI stock forecast
CPRT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CPRT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $29.12 cutoff price, not a guaranteed target. The bullish case requires insurance volume recovery, strong average selling prices, international growth, disciplined buybacks, and a higher market multiple. The base case assumes roughly flat revenue with buybacks supporting earnings. The bearish case assumes continued soft claims, weaker used-vehicle values, or a slower-growth multiple.
Base case
$32 to $35
More likely if EPS grows near 5%, revenue stays roughly flat with buybacks supporting earnings, and the stock holds about an 18x earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$19 to $22
More likely if EPS declines, insurance claim volumes stay soft, used-vehicle values fall, competitive fee pressure spreads, international margins disappoint, or the market prices CPRT near 14x earnings.
CPRT AI technical analysis
CPRT AI Technical Analysis
CPRT AI technical analysis starts from the $29.12 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 2 static page. StockAnalysis showed a 52-week range of $26.81 to $50.11, a 50-day moving average near $29.96, a 200-day moving average near $35.87, and RSI near 50. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm all levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.12 | Close on July 31, 2026, used for this static page and the market cap verification. |
| Near support | $28.78 to $29.00 | The July 31, 2026 intraday low near $28.78 and the round $29 level are the first downside references if selling pressure resumes. |
| Primary support | $26.81 | StockAnalysis showed the 52-week low at $26.81, which is the key risk-control level and the recent floor for the stock. |
| Near resistance | $29.96 | StockAnalysis showed the 50-day moving average near $29.96, just above the cutoff price, making it the first trend filter to reclaim. |
| Higher resistance | $32 to $35.87 | The $32 area aligns with recent analyst targets, while $35.87 is the 200-day moving average that CPRT needs to hold above to repair the medium-term trend. |
| Long-range resistance | $50.11 | StockAnalysis and Google Finance showed the 52-week high at $50.11. Reclaiming that area would require a clear fundamental and technical recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | $29.96 | Trading just below the 50-day average makes the near-term setup sensitive to small price moves. |
| 200-day moving average | $35.87 | Trading below the 200-day average keeps the medium-term trend filter cautious. |
| Momentum | RSI near 50 | StockAnalysis showed a 14-day RSI near 50.39, which is neutral and does not confirm a strong oversold reversal by itself. |
| Volume | 8.53M versus 12.13M average volume | The July 31, 2026 volume was below the 20-day average near 12.13 million, so a reversal would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Day range $28.78 to $29.24, beta 1.02 | Short-term setups should allow for normal movement around the cutoff range and a market-like beta near 1.0. |
| Invalidation | Close below $26.81 | A close below the 52-week low would weaken any mean-reversion setup and push the bearish scenario higher in probability. |
CPRT AI trading strategy
CPRT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CPRT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business quality, insurance volume recovery evidence, CEO transition monitoring, buyback activity, technical confirmation, and defined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for CPRT to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $29.96 and then hold above the 200-day moving average near $35.87 on improving volume before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A failed move above the 50-day average or a close back toward the 52-week low should reduce confidence in the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CPRT holds the $26.81 to $29 area, compare price action with Q4 FY2026 revenue, insurance unit volumes, ASPs, margins, buyback pace, and guidance from the September 3, 2026 earnings call.
Do not average down only because Copart has a strong moat. A close below the 52-week low of $26.81 should trigger a fresh thesis check.
Fundamental monitor
Track Jay Adair and Jane Pocock execution, service revenue growth, vehicle sales, international margins, global inventory, cash and securities, share repurchases, and the no-debt balance sheet status.
Lower the rating if volume weakness persists while margins, buyer liquidity, or insurer relationships deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Copart turns damaged, recovered, fleet, dealer, finance, and used vehicles into liquid online auctions for insurers, dealers, dismantlers, rebuilders, exporters, and public buyers.
Moat
The moat is strongest in marketplace liquidity across 160+ countries, seller trust, yard coverage, global buyer reach, data, and auction execution. It is weaker where competitors can compete on local service, price, or consignor relationships.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if claim volumes stay weak, consumers keep trimming coverage, salvage values fall, international growth underdelivers, competitors compress fees, or the market stops paying for a lower-growth marketplace.
Management
Jay Adair returned as CEO on July 31, 2026 with a stated 10+ year horizon and three growth pillars, while Jane Pocock was promoted to President, creating continuity but also a leadership shakeup to monitor through results.
Industry trend
Digital vehicle remarketing and global buyer access remain long-term tailwinds, but total loss frequency, insurance affordability, earned car years, used-car values, and catastrophe events keep revenue growth uneven.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 18x earnings and a 5% free cash flow yield, CPRT is cheaper than its former high-growth narrative, but it still needs evidence that insurance volumes and revenue can resume compounding.
Source-backed data
CPRT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT price | $29.12 at the July 31, 2026 close, after an intraday 52-week range of $26.81 to $50.11 | Market quote snapshot, StockAnalysis and Google Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $26.96 billion, verified as $29.12 x 925.81 million shares equals about $26.96 billion | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 925.81 million common shares, down about 0.91% year over year | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue | $1.237 billion, up 2.1% year over year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 revenue | $3.514 billion, down 0.2% year over year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 net income attributable to Copart | $402.4 million, down 1.0% year over year, with diluted EPS of $0.43 up 2.4% | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and held-to-maturity securities | $4.200 billion at April 30, 2026 | Copart Q3 FY2026 balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Stockholders equity | $8.774 billion at April 30, 2026 | Copart Q3 FY2026 balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Share repurchases | Over 43.4 million shares repurchased for over $1.6 billion in the first nine months of FY2026 | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| Operating scale | About 1 million members, more than 185 countries, over 250 locations in 11 countries, and more than 4 million units sold in the last year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release company description | August 2, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Jay Adair appointed CEO effective July 31, 2026; Jeff Liaw stepped down and became Senior Advisor until July 31, 2027; Jane Pocock promoted to President effective August 1, 2026 | Copart SEC 8-K and press releases | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average 12-month price target of $40.30 across 13 analysts, a low of $26 and a high of $55 | S&P Global Market Intelligence via StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| StockAnalysis technical data | 50-day moving average $29.96, 200-day moving average $35.87, RSI 50.39, beta 1.02, and 20-day average volume 12,128,228 | StockAnalysis statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
Frequently Asked Questions
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This CPRT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current market data and consult a qualified adviser for personal financial decisions.
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