Bullish case
$49 to $53
More likely if EPS compounds near 10% for three years, insurance and international ASPs stay strong, global unit volumes recover, and the market values CPRT near 24x earnings.
Copart, Inc. research snapshot
CPRT AI Stock Analysis
CPRT AI stock analysis currently reads Copart, Inc. as a profitable global online vehicle auction platform with a strong balance sheet, high margins, large buyer network, and real cyclical pressure from insurance claim volumes, used-vehicle conditions, and a CEO transition. At the July 8, 2026 cutoff, the verified market snapshot used here was about $29.27 per share, a $27.10 billion market capitalization, 925.81 million shares outstanding, and trailing EPS near $1.61. The stock is not being treated as a certain bargain or a certain short. The central question is whether Copart can restore unit growth while preserving pricing power, liquidity, and operating margins after a sharp drawdown from the 52-week high. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$29.27
Market cap
$27.10 billion
AI score
66 / 100
Rating
High-quality auction platform, pressured trend and transition risk
Trend status
Bearish medium-term trend, near 50-day average and below 200-day average
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Research quality check
- information Richness
- A-level information richness. Copart has long public filings, current earnings releases, market data, technical data, analyst coverage, and visible operating metrics across insurance and dealer vehicle remarketing.
- bias Check
- The main AI bias risk is over-relying on Copart history and assuming the moat automatically offsets weaker claim volumes, buyback effects, and leadership change. This page separates business quality from current technical weakness and valuation uncertainty.
- ai Confidence
- High data confidence
- investment Certainty
- Medium. The business model and balance sheet are well documented, but investment certainty depends on future salvage supply, insurance claim behavior, average selling prices, global expansion, execution under Jay Adair, and the entry multiple.
Quick verdict table
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Copart connects vehicle sellers with about 1 million members in more than 185 countries through online auctions and remarketing services. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from buyer liquidity, global locations, insurer relationships, vehicle data, auction technology, scale, and process trust. | High |
| Management | Executive Chairman Jay Adair is set to resume the CEO role on July 31, 2026, which supports continuity but creates near-term transition scrutiny. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q3 FY2026 revenue grew 2.1% year over year, gross profit grew 3.7%, and net income attributable to Copart declined 1.0%. | High |
| Valuation | At $29.27 and $1.61 EPS, CPRT traded near 18.2x earnings, 3.1x book value, and a 3.7% free cash flow yield using audited and quarterly inputs. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock was near its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average, with RSI near neutral and a large decline from the 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are lower insurance claim volumes, used-car price pressure, CAT event normalization, international execution, competition, technology outages, and valuation compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for filing-backed financials, share count, market-cap math, liquidity, and major risk categories. Lower confidence for auction volumes and future multiple recovery. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. Copart is a durable platform, but the stock needs evidence that softer volumes and leadership transition will not impair growth. | Medium |
CPRT AI stock forecast
CPRT AI Stock Forecast Scenarios
The CPRT AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $29.27 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a precise future stock price. The bullish case requires renewed unit growth, resilient insurance average selling prices, operating leverage, disciplined buybacks, and a higher market multiple. The base case assumes slow revenue growth and a steady earnings multiple. The bearish case assumes weaker salvage supply, lower auction liquidity, management disruption, or a lower quality-growth multiple.
Base case
$31 to $34
More likely if EPS grows near 4%, Copart offsets softer volumes with pricing and buybacks, and the stock holds an 18x earnings multiple.
Bearish case
$18 to $21
More likely if EPS declines, used-vehicle values weaken, insurance consignor volumes stay soft, international margins disappoint, or the market prices CPRT near 14x earnings.
CPRT AI technical analysis
CPRT AI Technical Analysis
CPRT AI technical analysis starts from the $29.27 cutoff price used for this July 8 static page. Google Finance showed a 52-week range of $27.84 to $50.11, and Investing.com showed CPRT near its 50-day moving average but below its 200-day moving average. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm all levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $29.27 | Price implied by the Google Finance market-cap and share-count snapshot used for this static page. |
| Near support | $27.84 to $28.00 | Google Finance showed a 52-week low of $27.84, making this the first downside reference if selling pressure resumes. |
| Secondary support | $24 to $25 | This is a risk-control zone below the 52-week low, not a live-market guarantee. A break there would signal a deeper repricing. |
| Near resistance | $29.25 to $29.45 | Investing.com showed the 50-day moving average near $29.25 and Fibonacci pivot near $29.44, placing resistance close to the cutoff price. |
| Higher resistance | $30.50 to $31.00 | Investing.com showed the 200-day moving average near $30.63, which is a key trend filter CPRT needs to reclaim. |
| Long-range resistance | $50.11 | Google Finance showed the 52-week high at $50.11. Reclaiming that area would require a clear fundamental and technical recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | $29.25 | Trading close to the 50-day average makes the near-term setup sensitive to small price moves. |
| 200-day moving average | $30.63 | Trading below the 200-day average keeps the medium-term trend filter cautious. |
| Momentum | RSI near 48 | Investing.com showed a 14-day RSI near neutral, which does not confirm a strong oversold reversal by itself. |
| Volume | 9.65M versus 13.40M average volume | The Google Finance snapshot showed volume below average, so a reversal would need stronger participation. |
| Volatility | Day range $29.17 to $29.92 | Short-term setups should allow for normal movement around the cutoff range. |
| Invalidation | Close below $27.84 | A close below the 52-week low would weaken any mean-reversion setup and push the bearish scenario higher in probability. |
CPRT AI trading strategy
CPRT AI Trading Strategy Framework
The CPRT AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business quality, volume recovery evidence, CEO transition monitoring, technical confirmation, and defined invalidation levels.
Trend-following setup
Wait for CPRT to reclaim the $30.50 to $31.00 area, hold above the 200-day moving average, and show improving volume before treating the downtrend as repaired.
A failed move above the 200-day average or a close back below the 50-day area should reduce confidence in the setup.
Mean-reversion setup
If CPRT stabilizes near $27.84 to $29.25, compare price action with Q4 FY2026 revenue, insurance unit volumes, ASPs, margins, and buyback pace.
Do not average down only because Copart has a strong moat. A close below the 52-week low should trigger a fresh thesis check.
Fundamental monitor
Track Jay Adair succession execution, service revenue growth, vehicle sales, international margins, global inventory, cash and securities, share repurchases, and no-debt balance sheet status.
Lower the rating if volume weakness persists while margins, buyer liquidity, or insurer relationships deteriorate.
Investment research summary
Four-master Research Compression
Business essence
Copart turns damaged, recovered, fleet, dealer, charity, and used vehicles into liquid online auctions for insurers, dealers, dismantlers, rebuilders, exporters, and public buyers.
Moat
The moat is strongest in marketplace liquidity, seller trust, yard coverage, global buyer reach, data, and auction execution. It is weaker where competitors can compete on local service, price, or consignor relationships.
Munger risk inversion
The thesis can fail if claim volumes stay weak, salvage values fall, international growth underdelivers, technology reliability slips, consignors gain bargaining power, or the market stops paying for quality growth.
Management
Jay Adair returning as CEO creates founder-operator continuity, while Jeff Liaw stepping down introduces a transition period that investors should monitor through operating results and capital allocation.
Industry trend
Digital vehicle remarketing and global buyer access remain long-term tailwinds, but total-loss frequency, insurance coverage choices, used-car values, and catastrophe events can make revenue growth uneven.
Valuation and margin of safety
At about 18.2x earnings and below the 200-day average, CPRT is cheaper than its former high-growth narrative but still needs evidence that earnings can resume compounding.
Source-backed data
CPRT Data Table
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPRT price | $29.27 implied by $27.10 billion market cap and 925.81 million shares | Google Finance CPRT market snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $27.10 billion, verified as $29.27 x 925.81 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Google Finance | July 8, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue | $1.237066 billion, up 2.1% year over year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 revenue | $3.513770 billion, down 0.2% year over year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 net income attributable to Copart | $402.401 million, down 1.0% year over year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash and held-to-maturity securities | $4.199712 billion at April 30, 2026 | Copart Q3 FY2026 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| Stockholders equity | $8.774264 billion at April 30, 2026 | Copart Q3 FY2026 balance sheet | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $4.6 billion revenue and $1.6 billion net income attributable to Copart | SEC FY2025 10-K exhibit | July 8, 2026 |
| Operating scale | About 1 million members, more than 185 countries, over 250 locations, and more than 4 million units sold in the last year | Copart Q3 FY2026 earnings release company description | July 8, 2026 |
| Facilities | 281 total operating facilities globally as of the FY2025 10-K | Copart FY2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Jeff Liaw to step down July 31, 2026, with Executive Chairman Jay Adair appointed CEO effective the same date | Copart CEO transition press release | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | 50-day moving average $29.25, 200-day moving average $30.63, 14-day RSI near 48 | Investing.com CPRT technical snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
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This CPRT AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, a solicitation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of the stated cutoff date and may be wrong. Always verify current market data and consult a qualified adviser for personal financial decisions.