Coupang, Inc. research snapshot
CPNG AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Coupang, Inc. as a scaled Korean commerce platform trading at a much lower valuation than a year ago, with the stock at $16.35 at the July 31, 2026 close and a market capitalization near $29.35 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $16.35 times 1.809 billion shares with a 0.77% deviation from the reported figure. The Q1 2026 report, released May 5, 2026, showed total net revenues of $8.5 billion up 8%, but a $266 million net loss and adjusted EBITDA of just $29 million, while the June 2026 record fine near $410 million from South Korea over the customer data incident created an additional regulatory overhang. The stock fell about 44% over the past year to roughly 0.84 times sales. Analyst consensus remains Buy with an average target of $25.83, about 58% above the price. This page presents a scenario framework, not a certain price prediction, and is for information only.
Current price
$16.35
Market cap
$29.35 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Compressed valuation, unresolved margin and regulatory overhang
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Coupang earns retail sales, merchant commissions, advertising, food delivery, streaming, fintech, and related service revenue from a large Korean commerce ecosystem. | High |
| Moat | Dense fulfillment and delivery infrastructure, customer habits, merchant reach, and cross-service data create real advantages, but consumers can still compare prices and use competing apps. | Medium |
| Management | Founder and CEO Bom Kim retains control through Class B shares, with about 74.1% of voting power at the end of 2025, while a South Korean court suspended an FTC designation of him as the group controlling entity in July 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 14% to $34.5 billion with net income of $208 million, but Q1 2026 brought an 8% revenue gain, a $266 million net loss, $29 million adjusted EBITDA, and negative $110 million quarterly free cash flow, after the company repurchased $391 million of Class A stock. | High |
| Valuation | At about 0.84 times trailing sales, 7.53 times book value, and 99x trailing free cash flow, the market prices in low near-term profitability and discounts the platform versus a year ago. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CPNG closed at $16.35 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 46.89 and 14-day ADX near 21 showing weak directional momentum. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the near $410 million Korean fine, reported KRW 300 billion additional tax assessments, the US and South Korea regulatory dispute, margin pressure, competition, and dual-class governance can move the thesis quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High for filings, market data, quote snapshots, and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, and Barchart. Lower for forward return estimates because fine and tax outcomes, margin recovery, and multiples are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Low to medium |
CPNG AI stock forecast
The CPNG AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $16.35. Because TTM EPS is negative, the three-scenario framework uses a clearly labeled illustrative normalized EPS input of $0.25, which is directionally consistent with the analyst FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate near $0.29. The three-year outputs were about $22.00 in a bullish case, $10.40 in a base case, and $4.30 in a bearish case. These are scenarios, not price targets, and they are sensitive to the small earnings base.
$20 to $24
More likely if Product Commerce margins recover, Developing Offerings losses narrow, the fine and tax fallout stays contained, customer activity stays resilient after remediation, and the market accepts a higher multiple on sustained growth.
$8 to $12
More likely if revenue grows but profitability remains uneven, with continued investment, regulatory and tax costs, competition, and a multiple below what a mature profitable marketplace receives.
$3 to $6
More likely if the fine, additional taxes, remediation, or competition cause a prolonged margin reset and investors no longer pay for a near-term earnings recovery.
CPNG AI technical analysis
CPNG AI technical analysis is below its major moving averages as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $16.35 on July 31, 2026, under its 20-day moving average near $16.96, its 50-day near $16.88, its 100-day near $17.99, and its 200-day near $21.10, with 14-day RSI near 46.89 and 14-day ADX near 21.07. The 52-week range was $14.92 to $34.08, and the next earnings report is August 4, 2026.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $16.35 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 1.809 billion shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $15.30 to $15.50 | The late July 2026 pullback lows. CPNG closed near $15.36 on July 28, 2026 before rebounding. |
| Major support | $14.92 to $15.15 | The 52-week low of $14.92 set in June 2026 and the early June panic area, a zone that held during the data fine headlines. |
| Near resistance | $16.88 to $17.00 | The 50-day and 20-day moving averages sit near $16.88 and $16.96, forming the first overhead test. |
| Next resistance | $17.50 to $18.00 | Mid July 2026 rebound highs near $17.98 and the 100-day moving average near $17.99. |
| 50-day moving average | $16.88 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day moving average near $16.88 on July 31, 2026. |
| 200-day moving average | $21.10 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day trend line near $21.10, well above price, meaning the longer trend is still bearish. |
| Momentum | RSI near 47, ADX near 21 | 14-day RSI was near 46.89 on July 31, 2026, neutral rather than oversold, and 14-day ADX near 21.07 with negative directional index above positive directional index. |
| Volume | About 18.7 million average shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 18.9 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 18.7 million on July 31, 2026, with spikes around earnings and fine headlines. |
| Volatility | Elevated near events | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 40.1% and 9-day near 46.7%, so position sizing should account for earnings and regulatory headline swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $14.92 | A decisive break below the 52-week low near $14.92 would signal a new leg down; a close above the 50-day near $16.88 would be the first sign of trend repair. |
CPNG AI trading strategy
The CPNG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and watching the commerce platform. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level, because the August 4, 2026 earnings report and regulatory headlines can override any static technical level.
Wait for CPNG to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $16.88 with volume and to hold above it, then watch whether it can climb toward the $17.50 to $18.00 resistance zone.
A failed rally back below the 50-day moving average or a close below $15.30 should trigger a stop and review.
If CPNG revisits the $15.30 to $15.50 support area or the $14.92 to $15.15 major support zone without a new fine, tax, security, or earnings shock, compare the price reaction with Q2 results, margin, and cash-flow evidence before acting.
Do not average down unless position size, maximum loss, and thesis-break conditions are defined before entry, because regulatory headlines can turn a support zone into a value trap.
Track Product Commerce active customers and net revenue per active customer, Developing Offerings losses, free cash flow, buybacks, the fine and KRW 300 billion tax assessments, competition, and US and South Korea regulatory developments.
Reduce confidence if revenue rises while gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow continue to weaken, or if additional fines and taxes keep mounting.
Investment research summary
Coupang is paid to make commerce convenient through owned-inventory retail, merchant commissions, advertising, delivery services, WOW membership, and newer offerings such as Eats, Play, Rocket Now, and Farfetch.
FY2025 revenue reached $34.5 billion, up 14%, with net income of $208 million and trailing free cash flow of $522 million. Q1 2026 showed fragility: revenue rose 8%, gross profit fell 1%, net loss was $266 million, adjusted EBITDA was $29 million, and quarterly free cash flow was negative $110 million.
The moat rests on fulfillment density, Rocket Delivery convenience, customer habits, merchant and advertising reach, and data from a large commerce ecosystem. It is weaker if customers switch on price or if delivery economics cannot fund the service level.
The thesis fails if the near $410 million fine, reported KRW 300 billion in additional tax assessments, and remediation damage demand or margins, Developing Offerings losses expand, competitors match convenience, logistics costs rise, or regulation limits operating freedom.
Bom Kim built the company around speed and customer experience. His control of about 74.1% of voting power gives strategic continuity but leaves minority holders with limited influence, and the company stepped up buybacks with $391 million in Q1 2026 and a $1 billion addition to the repurchase program.
Online commerce, on-demand delivery, advertising, and subscription-led convenience are long-duration trends. The key question is whether the economic surplus accrues to Coupang after service, technology, fines, taxes, and competitive investment.
At the reference quote, verified TTM EPS was negative, P/S was about 0.84, P/B about 7.53, and P/FCF about 99x. The stock trades far below its 52-week high, so the price partly reflects the margin reset, but the earnings and cash-flow proof is still missing.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPNG price | $16.35 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $29.35 billion, computed as $16.35 x 1.809 billion shares outstanding with a 0.77% deviation from the reported figure | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Total net revenues of $8.5 billion up 8%, gross profit of $2.3 billion down 1%, operating loss of $242 million, net loss of $266 million, diluted EPS of negative $0.15, and adjusted EBITDA of $29 million | Coupang Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | Product Commerce net revenues of $7.2 billion up 4% and Developing Offerings net revenues of $1.3 billion up 28% | Coupang Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 customer metrics | Product Commerce Active Customers of 23.9 million up 2% and net revenues per Product Commerce Active Customer of $300 up 2% | Coupang Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow and buybacks | Quarterly free cash flow of negative $110 million, TTM free cash flow of $301 million, and 20.4 million Class A shares repurchased for $391 million with a $1 billion addition to the repurchase program | Coupang Q1 2026 earnings release | May 5, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $6.301 billion and total equity of $3.930 billion as of March 31, 2026, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL | Coupang Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | Revenue of $34.534 billion up 14.09%, net income of $208 million, and EPS of $0.11, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL with 0.00% deviation | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM results | Revenue of $35.13 billion up 13.1%, gross profit of $10.12 billion, operating income near $77 million, and a net loss of $165 million, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and SEC EDGAR XBRL with 0.00% deviation on net loss | StockAnalysis.com statistics and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash flow | TTM operating cash flow of $1.60 billion, capital expenditures of $1.31 billion, and free cash flow of $295 million, close to the $301 million TTM free cash flow in the Q1 2026 release | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Negative TTM EPS, 0.84x trailing sales, 7.53x book value, 99.49x free cash flow, 18.31x operating cash flow, and 1.01% free cash flow yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Enterprise valuation | Enterprise value of $28.44 billion with EV/EBITDA of 46.25 and EV/FCF of 96.42 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $25.83 across 18 analysts, low $12 and high $36, median $26.5 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 8 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 4 Hold, and 1 Sell out of 18 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Mizuho $25 to $24 Hold, Bernstein $12 Sell, BofA $27 Buy, Morgan Stanley $28 Buy, UBS $27 Buy, and CLSA initiation at Outperform with a $24 target | StockAnalysis.com analyst ratings and TipRanks | July 29, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $37.40B with adjusted EPS near negative $0.36 and FY2027 revenue of $42.65B with adjusted EPS near $0.29 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Korean data incident fine | South Korea imposed a record fine near $410 million over a large 2025 customer data breach, with Coupang disclosing an administrative fine of $278 million for one subsidiary, and reported additional KRW 300 billion tax assessments | Reuters, TechCrunch, WSJ, and TheFly coverage | June 11, 2026 |
| Regulatory dispute | A US House Judiciary Committee report in July 2026 said South Korea discriminated against Coupang, a South Korean court suspended an FTC designation of Bom Kim as the group controlling entity, and the dispute became a US and South Korea issue | Reuters and CNBC coverage | July 14, 2026 |
| Earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026 after market close | Coupang press release and StockAnalysis.com | July 21, 2026 |
| Governance | Bom Kim held about 74.1% of voting power through Class B shares at December 31, 2025, with 1.651 billion Class A and 158 million Class B shares outstanding at March 31, 2026 | Coupang FY2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $16.96, 50-day SMA near $16.88, 100-day SMA near $17.99, 200-day SMA near $21.10, 14-day RSI near 46.89, 14-day ADX near 21.07, and 14-day historical volatility near 40.1% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This CPNG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, legal or tax rulings, market moves, or macro conditions.
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