The Campbell's Company research snapshot
CPB AI stock analysis reads The Campbell’s Company as a high-yield value situation rather than a high-certainty compounder. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close was $21.98 on July 31, 2026, with a market cap near $6.55 billion, a trailing P/E near 10.8x, and a dividend yield near 7.1%. The business still owns iconic brands including Campbell’s soup, Pepperidge Farm, Goldfish, and Rao’s, and Rao’s has now surpassed $1 billion in trailing 12-month net sales. But the score stays low because of the capital structure and the operating picture: roughly $7 billion of debt against a $6.55 billion equity market cap, net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage near 4x, fiscal Q3 2026 organic net sales down 4%, adjusted EBIT down 24%, and removal from the S&P 500 on June 22, 2026, which pushed mechanical index selling pressure onto the stock. This page treats CPB as a scenario-based distressed-value setup, not as a precise AI stock prediction or personal investment advice.
Current price
$21.98
Market cap
$6.55 billion
AI score
46 / 100
Rating
High-yield value situation with heavy debt and a post-index-removal overhang
Trend status
Bearish-to-neutral in a multi-month downtrend, holding just above the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CPB sells repeat-purchase food products with iconic brands, but fiscal Q3 2026 organic net sales fell 4% and adjusted EPS fell 32% year over year, with snacks under pressure. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand heritage, shelf access, soup category dominance, and Rao’s premium equity, but pricing power is limited by private label and changing eating habits. | Medium-low |
| Management | CEO Mick Beekhuizen leads a restructuring that reaffirmed fiscal 2026 guidance, delivered about $200 million of cost savings against a $375 million target, and made progress stabilizing fresh bakery, but snacks are still weak. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $9.93 billion. Fiscal Q3 2026 organic net sales fell 4%, adjusted EBIT fell 24%, and adjusted EPS fell 32%. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage is near 4x. | High |
| Valuation | At $21.98, the stock trades near 10.8x TTM EPS, 0.66x sales, 1.63x book value, about 9.8x TTM free cash flow, and a dividend yield near 7.1%. The low multiples reflect the debt and decline risk. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CPB is in a multi-month downtrend, down roughly 21% year to date and about 36% from its 52-week high of $34.17. It holds just above the 50-day average near $21.85 but stays well below the 200-day average near $25.05. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated by high leverage, falling organic sales, 17.82% short interest, dividend payout near 76% to 77%, potential interest expense creep, private-label competition, and the S&P 500 removal that cut index-linked demand. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive data confidence is high. Forward-return confidence is lower because the main variable is debt management, snacks stabilization, and category stability, not missing financial data. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CPB looks like a high-risk, high-yield value scenario rather than a high-certainty compounder. The yield is attractive only if the balance sheet and free cash flow can sustain it through a weak volume cycle. | Low to medium |
CPB AI stock forecast
The CPB AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a guaranteed price target. Using the July 31, 2026 close of $21.98, TTM EPS of $2.04, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $12 to $15, a base area near $18 to $22, and a bullish area near $26 to $29. The dividend can matter for total return, but it does not remove debt, category decline, or the index-removal overhang.
$26 to $29
More likely if Rao’s and broth growth continues, Goldfish and fresh bakery stabilize, snacks stop losing share, free cash flow holds near $670 million, management keeps deleveraging, the dividend stays covered, and the market re-rates CPB to a 12 to 13x earnings multiple.
$18 to $22
More likely if organic sales keep declining at a low single-digit rate, adjusted EPS drifts toward the low end of the $2.15 to $2.25 fiscal 2026 guide and stays flat to down in 2027, the dividend is maintained but not grown, debt paydown is slow, and the stock keeps trading near a 10 to 11x earnings multiple.
$12 to $15
More likely if organic sales decline accelerates, snacks weakness deepens, interest expense consumes more cash flow, a dividend cut becomes necessary, oil stays near $100 and pushes fiscal 2027 inflation higher, or the S&P SmallCap 600 placement reduces investor demand further.
CPB AI technical analysis
CPB AI technical analysis is bearish-to-neutral as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $21.98 on July 31, 2026, roughly 36% below its 52-week high of $34.17 and only about 12% above the 52-week low of $19.56. The 50-day average sits near $21.85 and the 200-day average near $25.05, so price action is a stock in a prolonged downtrend that has recently stabilized just above the 50-day average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.98 | The July 31, 2026 close reported by Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis, with a market cap near $6.55 billion. |
| Near support | $19.56 to $20.00 | The 52-week low of $19.56 is the most important tactical support. A close below it would mark a new multi-year low. |
| Deeper support | $17.00 to $18.00 | MarketBeat reported analyst targets in this area from UBS at $17 and BofA at $18. A break below $19.56 opens the path toward this lower zone. |
| Near resistance | $23.00 to $23.50 | The 50-day trading range top near $23.47 and the lower end of the former $23 to $24 zone. A reclaim would be the first recovery signal. |
| Upper resistance | $25.00 to $26.00 | The 200-day average near $25.05 plus the $25 to $27 supply area. This zone would require a real earnings and sentiment improvement to clear. |
| 50-day SMA | Approximately $21.85 | StockAnalysis reported the 50-day average near $21.85. Price is just above it, which is a mild stabilization signal after the downtrend. |
| 200-day SMA | Approximately $25.05 | StockAnalysis reported the 200-day average near $25.05. Price remains well below it, confirming the long-term downtrend. |
| Momentum | RSI near 49 | StockAnalysis reported RSI near 48.6, neutral territory. It is not oversold, so there is room for further downside before a mean-reversion signal. |
| Volume | Watch 6 to 8.5 million shares | StockAnalysis reported a 20-day average near 6 million shares and MarketBeat near 8.5 million. Elevated volume on down days confirms selling pressure. |
| Volatility | Low beta but event-sensitive | Beta is near zero, but earnings reports, dividend announcements, index changes, and debt-related news can still move the stock significantly. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close above $23.50 | A decisive close above the $23.47 area with volume would weaken the bearish technical thesis. A close below $19.56 would signal a new leg down. |
CPB AI trading strategy
The CPB AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-control framework, not personal advice. It combines a high-yield distressed value setup with strict monitoring of debt, free cash flow, dividend coverage, short interest, and snacks stabilization.
Wait for CPB to reclaim the $23 to $23.50 resistance zone on above-average volume and show signs of base-building above the 50-day average. Confirmation improves if free cash flow covers the dividend by a wider margin, snacks stop losing share, and debt reduction is visible.
Define risk before entry. A close below $19.56 can be used as a rules-based invalidation point for any long setup.
If CPB pulls back toward the $20 to $21 area without a fundamental catalyst change, compare dividend yield, free cash flow coverage, net debt, short interest, and snacks consumption trends before treating the pullback as value.
Do not rely on dividend yield alone. A yield above 7% in a declining stock can be a value trap signal when payout ratios are above 75%.
Track organic net sales, snacks segment consumption, Rao’s and broth growth, adjusted EBIT, free cash flow, total debt reduction, interest coverage, dividend payout ratio, short interest, and any S&P SmallCap 600 index-fund flows.
Update scenario ranges after each quarterly earnings report. The base case requires evidence that revenue declines are stabilizing and that free cash flow is not deteriorating.
Investment research summary
Customers pay for Campbell's branded food products they trust and recognize: soup, broth, sauces, snacks, crackers, and frozen meals. The business model depends on repeat purchases through retail grocery, mass merchandise, club, convenience, and foodservice channels, with Rao's now a $1 billion premium growth brand.
The moat is moderate and narrowing. Campbell's soup holds dominant category share, Pepperidge Farm and Goldfish carry strong snack brand equity, and Rao's adds premium Italian sauce shelf space. But private-label soup and snacks, changing eating habits, and retailer private-label initiatives limit pricing power and shelf exclusivity.
The thesis fails if soup consumption structurally declines faster than expected, snacks keep losing share, the Rao's and La Regina acquisitions prove too costly, private-label gains permanent shelf share, interest expense crowds out brand investment and dividends, or a dividend cut triggers forced institutional selling. The June 22, 2026 removal from the S&P 500 is a reminder of how fast index-linked demand can exit.
CEO Mick Beekhuizen runs the company alongside CFO Todd Cunfer. The management score depends on measurable outcomes: debt reduction, organic sales stabilization, snacks recovery, free cash flow maintenance, and capital allocation discipline. Fiscal 2026 guidance was reaffirmed and about $200 million of a $375 million cost-savings target has been realized. Insider ownership near 16% to 20% provides some alignment.
Packaged food is defensive but mature. Premium and better-for-you sub-segments like Rao's and Pacific broth still grow, while mainstream shelf-stable soup and salty snacks face headwinds from fresh, refrigerated, and delivery-based alternatives. GLP-1 drugs and health trends may continue to pressure processed food categories, and a rough oil tape could push fiscal 2027 inflation higher.
At roughly 10.8x TTM EPS, 0.66x sales, and a 7.1% dividend yield, CPB has optically cheap valuation multiples. But the margin of safety is thin because total debt near $7 billion exceeds the market cap, net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage is near 4x, and the business is in a volume decline trend with a 32% adjusted EPS decline in the latest quarter.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPB price | $21.98 at the July 31, 2026 close | Yahoo Finance CPB summary page | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.55 billion, verified from $21.98 x 298.21 million shares with 0.01% variance | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 298.21 million shares | StockAnalysis CPB statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal Q3 2026 results | Organic net sales down 4%, adjusted EBIT down 24%, adjusted EPS $0.50 down 32% year over year, reported June 8, 2026 | Campbell’s Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings release and conference call via MarketBeat and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 guidance | Organic net sales down 1% to 2%, adjusted EBIT down 17% to 20%, adjusted EPS $2.15 to $2.25, reaffirmed | Campbell’s Q3 fiscal 2026 conference call transcript | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | Approximately $9.93 billion | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance CPB statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $2.04, cross-validated against Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis CPB statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing P/E | 10.77x, verified by financial_rigor.py at 10.77x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and Yahoo Finance | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $1.56 annual dividend, yield near 7.10% | Yahoo Finance CPB statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and total debt | $402 million cash and about $7.34 billion total debt, net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage near 4x | StockAnalysis balance sheet and Q3 fiscal 2026 call | August 2, 2026 |
| Operating and free cash flow | TTM operating cash flow about $1.10 billion and TTM free cash flow about $671 million | StockAnalysis CPB cash flow data | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 42.63 million shares short as of July 15, 2026, about 17.82% of float, 6.6 days to cover, down 8.05% month over month | MarketBeat CPB short interest | August 2, 2026 |
| S&P 500 removal | Removed from the S&P 500 on June 22, 2026 and placed in the S&P SmallCap 600 | Motley Fool via Yahoo Finance, July 4, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $19.56 to $34.17 | Yahoo Finance CPB summary | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold to Reduce consensus, average target near $21.59, with targets ranging from about $17 to $22 among recent notes | StockAnalysis analyst summary and MarketBeat forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 50-day MA about $21.85, 200-day MA about $25.05, RSI near 48.6 | StockAnalysis CPB statistics page | August 2, 2026 |
This CPB AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, cash flow, interest rates, consumer demand, commodity costs, debt markets, index changes, or market valuation multiples change. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
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