Conagra Brands, Inc. research snapshot
CAG AI stock analysis now reads Conagra Brands as a cheap packaged-foods stock whose investment case changed materially in July 2026. On July 15, 2026 Conagra reported a fiscal 2026 GAAP net loss of about $1.9 billion driven by roughly $2 billion in impairments, cut its annual dividend in half to $0.70 per share, and guided fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS to $1.40 to $1.50, below the consensus near $1.58. The stock closed July 31, 2026 at $14.51, with a market cap near $6.94 billion, a forward P/E around 10x, a price-to-book near 1.09x, and a dividend yield near 4.8%. The dividend reset removes a major overhang, but the case still depends on volume stabilization, margin recovery, and debt reduction under new CEO John Brase, who took over in June 2026 and has since retired the COO role.
Current price
$14.51
Market cap
$6.94 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Deep value with a reset dividend, turnaround hinges on FY27 execution
Trend status
Consolidating above the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, still below the 200-day after the Q4 loss and dividend cut
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Conagra owns a broad portfolio of packaged-food brands including Birds Eye, Marie Callender's, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Reddi-wip, Slim Jim, and Angie's BOOMCHICKAPOP. The brands still hold shelf space and household recognition, but volumes have declined and fiscal 2026 revenue fell 2.9% to $11.28 billion. | Medium |
| Moat | Brand shelf presence, retailer relationships, and procurement and distribution scale create a moderate moat, but private-label competition, retailer bargaining power, and consumer shifts toward fresher options continue to limit pricing power. | Medium-low |
| Management | CEO John Brase, who took over in June 2026, cut the dividend in half, retired the COO role, and is pushing a margin-restoration program with more brand and supply chain investment. The test is whether FY27 guidance of $1.40 to $1.50 adjusted EPS holds as volume declines. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Fiscal 2026 revenue was $11.28 billion with a GAAP net loss of about $1.9 billion from impairment charges, free cash flow of $978.7 million, cash of $218 million, and total debt near $7.3 billion. Net leverage is guided to stay near 4.0x at the end of fiscal 2027. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.51, CAG trades near 10.0x forward P/E on FY27 guidance, about 1.09x book value, 0.62x sales, and 7.1x free cash flow, with a dividend yield near 4.8%. That is historically cheap versus CAG's own five-year averages and versus most packaged-food peers. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | CAG closed July 31, 2026 at $14.51, above the 50-day moving average near $13.83 and just above the 100-day near $14.38, but below the 200-day near $16.14. The 14-day RSI near 51 and 14-day ADX near 12 suggest a range-bound, non-trending market. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include ongoing volume declines, a guided organic sales change of -3% to -1% for FY27, high net leverage near 4.0x, elevated commodity costs, potential additional impairments, and execution risk under a new CEO and a restructured leadership team. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for descriptive and guidance data, lower confidence for forward-looking scenarios because CAG's turnaround depends on execution, consumer demand, and commodity costs that can move quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CAG is a cheap, high-risk value proposition rather than a high-certainty compounder. The dividend reset removes one failure path, but the business still needs organic volume stabilization and debt reduction before the deep-value thesis becomes higher confidence. | Medium-low |
CAG AI stock forecast
The CAG AI stock forecast is scenario math based on public data, not a precise prediction. Using the fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $1.45, a July 31, 2026 close of $14.51, and a three-year framework, the modeled range spans a bearish area near $10, a base area near $14.50, and a bullish area near $20 before dividends. The dividend yield near 4.8% adds to total return, but the price outcome depends on whether Conagra stabilizes volumes, restores margins, services its debt, and delivers the FY27 guidance.
$17 to $21
More likely if volume trends improve during FY27, the adjusted EPS guidance of $1.40 to $1.50 holds or is raised, margins recover toward the 10% to 10.5% adjusted operating margin target, net leverage falls, and the market re-rates CAG toward a 12x forward multiple.
$13 to $16
More likely if organic sales stay in the guided -3% to -1% range, adjusted EPS lands near the $1.45 midpoint, the dividend stays at $0.70, free cash flow conversion stays above 90%, and CAG trades near a 10x forward multiple.
$8 to $11
More likely if volume declines accelerate, commodity costs keep pressuring margins, guidance is cut again, additional impairments hit, or debt service restricts investment and the market assigns a single-digit multiple to declining earnings.
CAG AI technical analysis
CAG AI technical analysis shows a stock that bottomed near $12.53 in the 52-week range and is now consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after the July 15 earnings shock. As of the August 2026 data cutoff, Yahoo Finance reported CAG closed July 31, 2026 at $14.51, down 3.46% on the day. Barchart technical data shows the stock above the 50-day moving average near $13.83 and the 100-day near $14.38, but below the 200-day near $16.14. The 14-day RSI near 51 and the 14-day ADX near 12 point to a range-bound market that rewards disciplined risk management over directional bets.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.51 | Yahoo Finance reported the July 31, 2026 close at $14.51, down 3.46% on the day. |
| Near support | $13.83 to $14.00 | The 50-day moving average near $13.83 and the round $14.00 level form the nearest downside reference zone. |
| Deeper support | $12.53 to $13.00 | The 52-week low near $12.53 and the psychological $13.00 level are the next structural support. These are risk reference levels, not price targets. |
| Near resistance | $15.14 to $15.59 | The 5-day moving average near $15.14 and the year-to-date average near $15.59 are the nearest upside tests. |
| Higher resistance | $16.14 to $17.50 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average near $16.14. A decisive move above this level would signal the long-term downtrend is weakening. |
| 50-day SMA | $13.83 | Barchart reported the 50-day moving average at $13.83, below the current price. Holding this level keeps the base intact. |
| 100-day SMA | $14.38 | Barchart reported the 100-day moving average at $14.38, just below the current price. It is a thin layer that needs to hold. |
| 200-day SMA | $16.14 | Barchart reported the 200-day moving average at $16.14, the strictest trend test. The stock has traded below it for most of the past year. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51 | Barchart 14-day RSI near 51.02 is neutral. The stock is not overbought or oversold on this timeframe. |
| Volume | Watch near 15.6M daily | Barchart showed average volume near 15.6 million shares on the 20-day view. A breakout or breakdown is more reliable with above-average volume confirmation. |
| Volatility | ATR near $0.55 | Barchart 14-day ATR near $0.55 (3.8%) and 14-day historical volatility near 35% show daily swings are meaningful for a stock at this price level. |
| Invalidation | Close below $12.53 | A decisive break below the 52-week low near $12.53 would put the stock in downside price-discovery mode. |
CAG AI trading strategy
The CAG AI trading strategy below is a research and risk-management framework, not personal advice. It pairs a low-valuation income thesis with strict technical and fundamental checkpoints because the stock now trades on the credibility of FY27 guidance, dividend coverage, and deleveraging progress.
Watch for CAG to hold above the 50-day moving average near $13.83 and reclaim the 200-day moving average near $16.14 with above-average volume. A move through the year-to-date average near $15.59 with volume would be the first constructive signal.
Define risk before entry. A close back below $13.83, or a failed attempt at $15.14 that reverses sharply, can be used as a rules-based invalidation point.
If CAG pulls back toward the $13.00 to $13.83 zone, evaluate whether free cash flow comfortably covers the new $0.70 dividend, whether quarterly volume trends stabilize, and whether management reaffirms the FY27 adjusted EPS range of $1.40 to $1.50.
The dividend cut removed the old 10% yield trap, but a near 4.8% yield is not a margin of safety by itself. The stock can still fall if volume declines accelerate or guidance is cut again.
Track quarterly organic sales, volume versus price/mix, Refrigerated & Frozen volume trends, adjusted operating margin against the 10% to 10.5% FY27 target, gross margin, net debt and net leverage toward 4.0x, free cash flow conversion above 90%, and the next earnings date near September 30, 2026.
Update scenario ranges after each earnings report. The deep-value thesis depends on adjusted EPS stabilization and free cash flow that covers the dividend, not only on low headline multiples.
Investment research summary
Conagra sells packaged food brands through retail, foodservice, and international channels. Customers pay for convenience, taste, habit, and brand familiarity across frozen meals, snacks, condiments, baking products, and meat alternatives. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $11.28 billion across Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice.
The moat is moderate. Brands like Birds Eye, Marie Callender's, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim, and Reddi-wip provide shelf space and repeat purchase patterns, but private-label alternatives, retailer consolidation, and health-conscious eating trends can narrow the moat.
The thesis fails if volume declines keep compounding, the FY27 guidance is cut, commodity costs keep squeezing margins, debt service crowds out brand investment, impairments signal deeper brand erosion, or CAG loses more shelf space to private-label competitors.
CEO John Brase moved quickly after taking over in June 2026: he cut the dividend in half, retired the COO role, and shifted business unit leaders to report directly to him while adding a chief growth officer. The critical test is whether FY27 adjusted EPS of $1.40 to $1.50 is delivered with improving margins.
Packaged food is a mature, low-growth industry with defensive demand. Inflation, trade-down by price-sensitive consumers, private-label growth, and a guided -3% to -1% organic sales change for Conagra in FY27 are the near-term headwinds. Frozen and snacks tend to be more stable than shelf-stable categories.
At roughly 10x forward P/E on FY27 guidance, 1.09x book value, 0.62x sales, and 7.1x free cash flow, CAG trades at a deep discount to most packaged-food peers and its own history. The margin of safety depends on whether adjusted earnings stabilize near the guided midpoint and free cash flow keeps covering the lower dividend.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAG price | $14.51 at the July 31, 2026 close, down 3.46% on the day | Yahoo Finance CAG summary page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.94 billion, calculated from $14.51 x ~478.57 million shares | financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | Approximately 478.57 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CAG statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 revenue | $11.28 billion for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2026, down 2.9% from fiscal 2025 | StockAnalysis CAG financials page | July 15, 2026 |
| Fiscal 2026 GAAP net income | About $1.9 billion GAAP net loss attributable to common, driven by roughly $2 billion in impairment charges | StockAnalysis CAG financials page and Conagra Q4 FY2026 release | July 15, 2026 |
| FY27 adjusted EPS guidance | $1.40 to $1.50, below consensus near $1.58; adjusted operating margin target of 10.0% to 10.5% | Conagra Q4 FY2026 guidance as reported by TheFly | July 15, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $218 million | StockAnalysis CAG statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | Approximately $7.3 billion total debt, with net leverage guided near 4.0x at the end of fiscal 2027 | StockAnalysis CAG statistics page and FY27 guidance | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.70 annual per share (quarterly $0.175), cut from $1.40; yield near 4.8% | StockAnalysis CAG statistics page and Conagra dividend announcement | July 15, 2026 |
| Forward P/E | Approximately 10.0x based on FY27 adjusted EPS guidance midpoint of $1.45 at $14.51 | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages | Barchart: 50-day $13.83, 100-day $14.38, 200-day $16.14, 14-day RSI near 51. | Barchart CAG technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $20.1, base $14.5, bearish $9.6 before dividends, using FY27 adjusted EPS midpoint $1.45 over three years | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This CAG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, consumer demand, interest rates, management execution, technical conditions, commodity costs, or market multiples change.
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