Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. research snapshot
CON AI stock analysis reads Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc. as the largest occupational health services provider in the United States, operating 627 medical centers and 410 onsite clinics across 47 states. The company was spun off from Select Medical in a June 2024 IPO and retains over 80% ownership by Select Medical. At the July 10, 2026 cutoff, the latest verified close was $31.55, market capitalization was about $4.04 billion, and TTM revenue was $2.23 billion with net income of $175 million. The AI analysis rates CON as a stable, niche healthcare services compounder with limited moat width but strong scale advantages in occupational medicine. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$31.55
Market cap
$4.04 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Largest US occupational health provider, post-IPO with stable revenue but high leverage and concentrated ownership
Trend status
Trading near 52-week high of $32.35, up 61% YTD, above key moving averages with strong momentum
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CON is the largest US occupational health network with 627 centers and 410 onsite clinics. Revenue comes from workers compensation treatment, employer health services, and urgent care. The business model benefits from regulatory requirements and recurring employer relationships. | High |
| Moat | Moat is moderate and driven by scale and geographic density. The 47-state network is difficult to replicate quickly. Switching costs for employers are moderate once clinics are integrated into claims management workflows. Brand recognition exists within occupational medicine but limited with the general public. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Keith Newton has led the company since before the IPO. Management has demonstrated operational discipline with steady margin expansion. Capital allocation focuses on organic center growth and tuck-in acquisitions. Key-person risk exists but the business model is operationally established. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $2.23B with net income of $175M and profit margin of 8%. ROE of 47% is high but amplified by extreme leverage (D/E of 467%). FCF of $143M provides coverage for debt service. Revenue growth has been mid-single digit organically with modest acquisition contributions. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $31.55, CON trades at 22.7x TTM earnings, 1.8x sales, and 14.2x EV/EBITDA. The P/E is reasonable for healthcare services but elevated given the 467% debt-to-equity ratio. FCF yield of roughly 3.6% is modest. Valuation is fair relative to medical facility peers but offers limited safety margin. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CON is up over 60% YTD, trading near the 52-week high of $32.35. Price is above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Near-term momentum is strong but extended. Support near $28, resistance at $32.35 (52-week high) and then $35. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include extreme leverage (D/E 467%), concentrated ownership (Select Medical controls >80%), limited public float, regulatory changes in workers compensation, employment cycle sensitivity, and potential litigation from past business practices. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is solid for TTM financials and current valuation metrics. Information available declines for pre-IPO operational history and comparable company analysis. This analysis cannot substitute for direct underwriting of CON debt terms or Select Medical governance dynamics. | Medium |
CON AI stock forecast
The CON AI stock forecast uses scenario analysis because stock price prediction is not reliable. The ranges below reflect different assumptions about revenue growth, margin expansion, debt reduction, and market multiple changes over a three-year horizon. Actual outcomes depend on employment trends, workers compensation regulation, and Concentra debt management.
$47 to $53
CON maintains mid-single-digit organic revenue growth, expands margins by 100-150 bps through operating leverage and high-margin onsite clinic expansion, gradually reduces debt leverage, and the market re-rates the stock to 23-25x forward earnings as visibility improves. Catalysts include sustained employment growth, further Select Medical de-levering, and accelerated clinic expansion.
$35 to $42
CON grows revenue at 4-6% annually through a mix of organic center growth and moderate M&A. Margins remain near current levels near 8% net. The stock trades at a 20-22x forward P/E consistent with medical facility peers. Debt leverage remains elevated but manageable. The Select Medical overhang maintains a small valuation discount.
$22 to $27
Employment softens or workers compensation reform pressures utilization rates. Leverage becomes restrictive if interest expenses rise or a downturn reduces EBITDA. Select Medical sells a large block into the market, depressing the stock. Margins compress to 6% or below, and the P/E multiple contracts to 16-18x.
CON AI technical analysis
CON technical analysis is based on the limited public trading history since the June 2024 IPO. Price action shows a strong uptrend from the low $18s to the current $31.55, driven by steady earnings execution and improving market visibility. Momentum indicators are positive but extended, suggesting potential consolidation near resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Support 1 (near-term) | $28.00 | Prior consolidation zone and the 50-day moving average level. A break below this level could signal trend exhaustion. |
| Support 2 (key level) | $24.00 | The June 2025 breakout level and area of prior resistance-turned-support. Represents the strongest technical floor. |
| Resistance 1 (near-term) | $32.35 | The current 52-week high. A breakout above this level would establish a new high and potentially trigger momentum buying. |
| Resistance 2 (upside target) | $35.00 - $36.00 | Psychological round number and potential upside target if the uptrend continues. No historical price data exists above this level given the limited trading history. |
| Moving averages | 50-day MA: near $28, 200-day MA: near $24 | Price is well above both moving averages, confirming the uptrend. The spread between MAs is widening, indicating strong momentum. |
| Volume pattern | Average daily volume ~906K shares | Volume has been consistent with no significant divergence. The limited float (Select Medical holds >80%) means that true trading volume represents only a fraction of outstanding shares. |
CON AI trading strategy
The CON AI trading strategy is a framework for research and risk management, not personalized advice. CON has limited trading history and concentrated ownership, which can amplify price moves on low float days. The setup below should be adapted to individual time horizons, position sizing, and risk tolerance.
Look for pullbacks toward the 50-day MA near $28 as potential entry zones in the context of a confirmed uptrend. Entry signals include a bullish MACD cross or RSI reset below 50 followed by a reversal candle. The primary risk is that the 61% YTD rally leaves limited upside to the 52-week high.
Stop-loss below $24 (200-day MA and key support). Consider scaling in with a smaller position given the concentrated ownership liquidity risk.
If CON extends toward $35-$36 without a catalyst, a short-term overextension signal may appear via RSI above 75 or bearish divergence on the daily chart. A mean-reversion short would target a return to the 50-day MA near $28.
Stops above $36. Position sizing must account for the potential of continued momentum in a low-float stock. Short selling low-float stocks carries added squeeze risk.
Monitor Select Medical ownership changes, any secondary offering announcements, quarterly earnings for leverage trends, and employment reports for occupational health utilization indicators. The concentrated ownership structure means that any insider selling or secondary offering could significantly impact price.
The concentrated ownership is the single most important risk factor. Any signal of Select Medical reducing its stake should trigger a review of the position thesis. This strategy framework is informational and not financial advice.
Investment research summary
Concentra is the largest US occupational health provider, operating 627 medical centers and 410 employer-site clinics across 47 states. Employers pay Concentra to treat work-related injuries, conduct physical exams, perform drug screenings, and provide urgent care. The business earns recurring revenue from employer contracts and workers compensation claims, with roughly one out of every seven occupational injuries in the US treated at a Concentra facility.
The primary moat is geographic density and scale: replicating 627 centers across 47 states with embedded employer relationships would require significant capital and time. Switching costs exist through integrated claims management workflows, though local competitors can undercut on price for simple services. Brand strength is moderate within occupational health but limited with the general public. The moat has been stable over time but is not widening significantly.
The thesis fails most likely through the high debt load (467% D/E) becoming unserviceable during a recession, a large secondary sale from Select Medical depressing the stock, or workers compensation regulation changes that reduce utilization rates. A secondary failure path is that the post-IPO YTD rally has priced in optimistic assumptions that leave no room for operational misses.
CEO Keith Newton has led the company through the IPO transition and has operational experience in healthcare services. The governance structure is dominated by Select Medical, which controls over 80% of shares and can make decisions that benefit the parent over minority shareholders. Capital allocation has focused on organic center growth and small acquisitions. Management incentives are aligned with Select Medical priorities.
Occupational health is a steady-demand industry tied to employment levels and regulatory requirements. The aging US workforce and increasing regulatory focus on workplace safety support baseline demand. However, the industry is not in a secular growth phase like technology, and artificial intelligence and automation may reduce workplace injury rates over time, potentially constraining volume growth.
At $31.55, CON trades at 22.7x TTM earnings with limited margin of safety given the 467% debt-to-equity ratio and 61% YTD appreciation. The base-case 3-year scenario suggests potential upside to $35-42, representing roughly 11-33% from current levels, but the bear case ($22-27) represents 15-30% downside. The risk-reward at current levels is balanced but not compelling for long-term value investors given the debt and ownership structure.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.55 | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| Market capitalization | $4.04 billion | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| Enterprise value | $6.10 billion | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| TTM revenue | $2.23 billion | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| TTM net income | $175 million | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $1.39 | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| Total cash | $61.7 million | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| Total debt / equity | 467.74% | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| P/E ratio (TTM) | 22.70x | Financial Rigor Tool | 2026-07-10 |
| EV / EBITDA | 14.24x | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| 52-week range | $18.55 - $32.35 | Yahoo Finance | 2026-07-10 |
| Employees | 9,967 (Yahoo) / ~12,000 (Wikipedia) | Yahoo Finance / Wikipedia | 2026-07-10 |
This CON AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 10, 2026, and they can be wrong if Concentra operational results, employment conditions, workers compensation regulation, interest rates, debt costs, Select Medical decisions, or market multiples change. The limited public trading history, concentrated parent ownership, and high financial leverage create risks that scenario analysis may not fully capture. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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