Compass, Inc. research snapshot
COMP AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Compass Inc. as the largest US residential real estate brokerage after its Anywhere Real Estate merger closed on January 9, 2026, now with roughly 340,000 real estate professionals, but the stock remains a leveraged, housing-sensitive consolidation play with an active New York Attorney General antitrust probe. COMP closed at $11.39 on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print of $11.24 and a market capitalization near $8.51 billion, computed as $11.39 times 747.15 million shares outstanding and cross-validated across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q. The first quarter as a combined company beat guidance with revenue of $2.70 billion up 99% year over year (pro forma up 7%), record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $61 million against a $15 million to $35 million guide, GAAP net income of $22 million helped by a $401 million deferred tax benefit, and more than $250 million of cost synergies actioned within 82 days of close, with the 2026 realized target raised to about $200 million and the three-year action target to $500 million. Management guided Q2 2026 revenue of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $310 million to $350 million, and it expects positive free cash flow for the full year. The stock fell roughly 13% on June 3, 2026 to near $7.54 when the New York Attorney General confirmed an antitrust investigation tied to the Anywhere transaction, then recovered to $11.39, above its 50-day moving average near $10.28, 100-day near $9.04, and 200-day near $9.67 but below its 5-day average near $11.63 and 20-day near $11.71. Offsetting the momentum are about $4.07 billion of total debt against $484 million of cash, a net debt position near $3.59 billion, high short interest near 6.49% of shares outstanding, and a forward PE that is roughly 42.7 times on the StockAnalysis statistics page but about 13.6 times on the forecast page using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $0.84. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 4, 2026, after the data cutoff. This page is an information tool for research and risk control, not investment advice.
Current price
$11.39
Market cap
$8.51 billion
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Leveraged consolidation with improving execution, housing and antitrust sensitive
Trend status
Recovered strongly off the June antitrust selloff, above the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below the 5-day and 20-day
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Compass is the largest US residential real estate services platform after the Anywhere merger, combining brokerage (Compass, Coldwell Banker, Corcoran, Sotheby's International Realty), a large franchise network (Century 21, ERA, Better Homes & Gardens, Christie's International Real Estate), and integrated services including title, escrow, relocation (Cartus), and 49% owned mortgage joint ventures, with Q1 2026 revenue of $2.70 billion and record adjusted EBITDA of $61 million. | Medium |
| Moat | Modest but widening moat from scale (roughly 340,000 professionals), a portfolio of well known brands, a proprietary technology platform that has helped the brokerage outperform the market for 20 consecutive quarters, and franchise network effects, but agents and broker-owners still face low switching costs and the core commission economics remain competitive. | Medium |
| Management | Founder CEO Robert Reffkin executed a transformative merger with Anywhere Real Estate, closed it on January 9, 2026, raised the cost synergy target repeatedly to $300 million actioned by year one and $500 million over three years, delivered a record Q1 adjusted EBITDA beat, and laid out a deleveraging plan targeting the $500 million 9.75% notes callable April 15, 2027, while the balance sheet now carries roughly $4.07 billion of debt. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $5.63 billion in FY2024 to $6.96 billion in FY2025 and $8.31 billion TTM, net loss narrowed from $601.5 million in FY2022 to $58.5 million in FY2025, and Q1 2026 delivered $2.70 billion of revenue, GAAP net income of $22 million, and record adjusted EBITDA of $61 million, though the trajectory now depends on Q2 revenue of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $310 million to $350 million. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $11.39, COMP trades at roughly 586.9x trailing PE (thin TTM net income of $14.5 million), 42.69x forward PE on the statistics page or about 13.63x on the forecast page using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $0.84, 1.02x sales, 0.60x forward sales, 3.01x book, and 1.46x EV/Sales, with the forward multiple only meaningful if the guided EBITDA step-up and cost synergies materialize. | Medium |
| Technical trend | COMP closed at $11.39 on July 31, 2026, above its 50-day moving average near $10.28, 100-day near $9.04, and 200-day near $9.67 after the June antitrust selloff to $7.54, but below its 5-day average near $11.63 and 20-day average near $11.71, with 14-day RSI near 51.64 and 14-day ADX near 21.74 signaling neutral momentum after a sharp recovery. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. Key risks are the New York Attorney General antitrust investigation confirmed in June 2026 (Compass and Anywhere together were roughly 30% to 40% of Manhattan transaction volume in 2024 per an Oppenheimer estimate), about $4.07 billion of total debt against $484 million of cash, net debt near $3.59 billion, heavy dilution (shares up about 22% year over year), high short interest near 6.49% of shares outstanding, thin GAAP profitability partly driven by a deferred tax benefit, an Altman Z-Score near 1.05, and sensitivity to housing turnover and interest rates. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations that matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR XBRL, the Q1 2026 earnings release, the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and the earnings call. Lower for forward scenarios because housing volume, integration speed, the antitrust outcome, and leverage costs are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. The page frames scenarios and monitoring rules, not a buy or sell instruction, because the leverage, the antitrust probe, and the short profitability history make certainty lower than the reported-quarter data quality. | Low-medium |
COMP AI stock forecast
The COMP AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the July 31, 2026 close of $11.39 and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS near $0.84. The three-scenario framework produced a bearish area near $7 to $9, a base area near $14 to $18, and a bullish area near $28 to $34 before dividends, using adjusted EPS paths of flat, roughly 15% annual growth, and roughly 30% annual growth with exit multiples near 8x to 10x, 12x to 14x, and 16x to 18x over three years. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
$28 to $34
More likely if existing home sales recover toward the 5.5 million mid-cycle level, cost synergies hit the $500 million target, franchise and title and mortgage attach keep improving, the antitrust investigation resolves without material remedies, and the market applies a 16x to 18x multiple to growing adjusted EPS.
$14 to $18
More likely if Compass compounds adjusted EPS around 12% to 15% annually from the $0.84 consensus base, housing turnover improves only gradually, the guided EBITDA step-up holds, and the market values the stock near 12x to 14x forward earnings with leverage still elevated.
$7 to $9
More likely if housing turnover stays near the 4.1 million trough, the antitrust investigation forces divestitures or remedies in key markets, debt service costs rise faster than cash flow, integration stalls across 340,000 professionals and multiple brands, or dilution continues.
COMP AI technical analysis
COMP AI technical analysis reflects a stock that collapsed to $7.54 on the June 2026 antitrust news and then recovered to $11.39 by the July 31, 2026 close, leaving price above its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages but below its 5-day and 20-day averages as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The 14-day RSI near 51.64 and 14-day ADX near 21.74 point to neutral momentum and a re-established uptrend rather than an overbought breakout, with high beta near 2.34 and elevated historic volatility near 55.57%.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.39 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; after hours near $11.24. Market cap math uses 747.15 million shares outstanding. |
| 5-day moving average | $11.63 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $11.63, slightly above the July 31 close, signaling near-term momentum cooled into the Q2 report. |
| 20-day moving average | $11.71 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $11.71 on July 31, 2026, the first overhead resistance and the level a trend-following setup needs to reclaim. |
| Near support | $10.25 to $10.50 | The 50-day moving average near $10.28 and the analyst low target of $10.50 create a first pullback support zone on StockAnalysis.com and Barchart. |
| Key support | $9.00 to $9.70 | The 100-day moving average near $9.04 and the 200-day moving average near $9.67 form a deeper support cluster that held during the recovery from $7.54. |
| Near resistance | $12.50 to $13.96 | The 52-week high of $13.96 is the major resistance, with congestion near the $12.50 to $13.00 zone from the spring 2026 range and the June 2026 rebound peak. |
| 52-week range | $6.37 to $13.96 | COMP traded between $6.37 (52-week low) and $13.96 (52-week high), with the June 3, 2026 antitrust-driven print near $7.54 inside that range. |
| Momentum | RSI near 52, ADX near 22 | 14-day RSI was near 51.64 and 14-day ADX near 21.74 on Barchart as of July 31, 2026, neutral and short of overbought after a roughly 50% rebound off the June low. |
| Volume | Average volume near 12.2 million shares | Barchart listed 20-day average volume near 12.18 million shares and StockAnalysis.com near 12.15 million on July 31, 2026, with volume spiking on housing data, antitrust headlines, and earnings. |
| Volatility | Beta 2.34, 14-day historic volatility near 55.6% | COMP carries a 5-year beta near 2.34 and 14-day historic volatility near 55.57%, so position sizing must account for large swings around the August 4 earnings report and housing data. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.25 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $10.28 would weaken the recovery trend; a close below the 200-day moving average near $9.67 would turn it bearish and target the $7.54 to $8.50 zone. |
COMP AI trading strategy
The COMP AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for trading and monitoring a leveraged, housing-sensitive real estate platform after a merger and a sharp June selloff. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, the Q2 2026 report on August 4, housing indicators, antitrust developments, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for COMP to reclaim its 5-day moving average near $11.63 and then its 20-day near $11.71 on rising volume, with the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day averages still stacked below price. A sustained move toward the $13.96 high would require stronger housing data, a clean Q2 report, and no escalation of the antitrust probe.
A daily close below the 50-day moving average near $10.28 or a breakdown after the August 4 report should invalidate the recovery setup and trigger a stop and review.
If COMP pulls back toward the $10.25 to $10.50 support zone without new antitrust or credit damage, compare the price reaction with the August 4 earnings report, existing home sales data, and management's full-year free cash flow outlook before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because a leveraged brokerage stock can gap on antitrust headlines, housing data, or a weak guide, and short interest near 6.49% of shares can amplify both directions.
Track quarterly revenue and adjusted EBITDA against guidance, cost synergy realization toward the $200 million 2026 and $500 million three-year targets, agent count and retention across the brands, title and mortgage attach rates, existing home sales, total debt and net leverage, free cash flow, the 9.75% notes callable April 2027, and any antitrust or litigation developments.
Reduce confidence if GAAP profitability depends mainly on deferred tax benefits or cost cuts rather than organic transaction volume, if net debt does not decline despite guidance, or if the antitrust investigation escalates into formal remedies.
Investment research summary
Compass earns money when residential real estate transacts. It provides technology and brand support to real estate agents and broker-owners, earns commission splits and franchise fees, and adds title, escrow, relocation, and mortgage revenue, so revenue depends on housing turnover, agent productivity, and attach rates.
The moat is scale and brand portfolio rather than a single product. Roughly 340,000 professionals, the Coldwell Banker, Corcoran, Sotheby's International Realty, Century 21, ERA, and Better Homes & Gardens brands, the Compass technology platform, and 20 consecutive quarters of organic market outperformance provide some advantage, but agents still face low switching costs and competition from eXp, RE/MAX, and local brokerages.
The thesis fails if housing turnover stays near the 4.1 million trough, the New York Attorney General antitrust investigation forces divestitures or remedies in key markets, debt service costs on roughly $4.07 billion of debt rise faster than cash flow, integration across 340,000 professionals and multiple brands stalls, title and mortgage attach disappoint, or GAAP profitability reverts to losses as it did before the merger.
Founder CEO Robert Reffkin closed the Anywhere merger on January 9, 2026, raised the cost synergy target to $500 million over three years with more than $250 million actioned by April 1, beat Q1 guidance with record adjusted EBITDA, and set a deleveraging plan targeting the $500 million 9.75% notes callable April 2027. The open questions are integration discipline across many brands and navigating the antitrust investigation.
Residential real estate is consolidating around large technology platforms and national brands, and Compass is now the largest US brokerage by headcount. Lower mortgage rates and a recovery in existing home sales from roughly 4.1 million toward the 5.5 million mid-cycle level would be the main catalysts, while elevated rates continue to suppress transaction volume.
At roughly 1.02x sales, 3.01x book, and about 13.6x FY2026 forward adjusted EPS on the consensus basis, the stock already prices in a large step-up in profitability from the merger and synergies. Margin of safety improves if price revisits the $9 to $10 zone while the August 4 report, free cash flow, and leverage trends stay on plan.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| COMP price | $11.39 at the July 31, 2026 close, $11.24 after hours | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $8.51 billion, computed as $11.39 x 747.15 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $2.70 billion, up 99% year over year from $1.36 billion, pro forma revenue up 7% to $2.76 billion | Compass Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 GAAP results | GAAP net income of $22 million versus a $51 million net loss a year ago, diluted EPS of $0.03, including $183 million of merger transaction and integration expenses, $47 million of non-cash stock-based compensation, and $163 million of depreciation and amortization | Compass Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | $61 million, a record first-quarter level, above the $15 million to $35 million guidance range and up 280% from $16 million a year ago | Compass Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash flow | Operating cash flow of negative $157 million and free cash flow of negative $168 million, driven by Anywhere transaction and integration spending | Compass Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 guidance | Consolidated revenue of $4.0 billion to $4.2 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $310 million to $350 million, weighted average share count of 755 million to 760 million | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Full-year 2026 non-GAAP OpEx guidance | $2.7 billion to $2.75 billion | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Cost synergies | More than $250 million of net cost synergies actioned by April 1, 2026 (82 days after close), 2026 realized target raised from $100 million to about $200 million ($130 million OpEx plus $70 million CapEx), year-one actioned target raised to $300 million, and three-year actioned target raised to $500 million ($420 million through the P&L plus $80 million CapEx) | Compass Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment performance | Brokerage segment revenue of $2.467 billion with gross transaction value of $97.3 billion (pro forma GTV up 7.3% versus a market up 1.5%), franchise pro forma GTV up 4.6% versus a market up 1.5%, and integrated services pro forma revenue up 11% | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Pro forma market outperformance | Pro forma transactions up 2.6% year over year versus a flat market, extending organic brokerage outperformance to 20 consecutive quarters | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Anywhere Real Estate merger | Announced in September 2025 as an all-stock merger that would create a roughly 340,000-professional global real estate platform, closed January 9, 2026; New York Post and WSJ reported the completed acquisition at about $1.6 billion and the Q1 2026 earnings call reported about $1.2 billion of Anywhere revenue contribution in Q1 2026 | Compass M&A press release, New York Post, Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $484 million as of March 31, 2026, up from $199 million at year end, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (484000000) from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | Compass Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Total debt | About $4.07 billion as of March 31, 2026, including $3.14 billion of long-term debt, $156 million of short-term debt, and operating leases, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL (3140000000 for long-term debt), versus $476 million at year end before the merger | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet, Q1 2026 Form 10-Q, and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Net debt | Net debt of about $3.59 billion, computed as cash of $484 million minus total debt of $4.07 billion, or about $4.80 per share | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet size | Total assets of $8.117 billion as of March 31, 2026 (up from $1.54 billion at year end), including goodwill of $2.55 billion and other intangibles of $3.10 billion from the merger, with common shareholders equity of $2.82 billion | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt structure and ratings | $500 million of 9.75% notes callable April 15, 2027, no borrowings on the $500 million revolver, $880 million of net proceeds from a convertible debt offering, and S&P B+ and Moody's B2 corporate ratings with positive outlooks initiated in April 2026 | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow scenario analysis | At a flat 4.1 million existing home sales, management estimates roughly $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $750 million of unlevered free cash flow; at 4.8 million, $1.5 billion and $1 billion; at 5.5 million mid-cycle, $2 billion and $1.5 billion; at 6 million, $2.5 billion and about $2 billion, noting these scenarios are not guidance | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Agent count | Roughly 330,000 to 340,000 real estate professionals, including about 84,000 owned brokerage agents, across Compass and the Anywhere brands | Compass Q1 2026 earnings call and New York Post | August 3, 2026 |
| Revenue and net income (TTM) | Revenue of $8.31 billion TTM (up 40.1%), with TTM net income of $14.5 million on the statistics page and $61.4 million on the financials page; FY2025 revenue of $6.96 billion up 23.7% and a FY2025 net loss of $58.5 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics, financials, and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue cross-check | $2.704 billion, matching SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept JSON (2704000000) from the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q and the Q1 2026 earnings release | SEC EDGAR XBRL and Compass Q1 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 747.15 million shares outstanding as of the statistics page, up 22.05% year over year and 43.95% quarter over quarter after the merger, with Q1 2026 weighted average basic shares of 734.35 million per the Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Compass Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 586.90x trailing PE, 42.69x forward PE, 1.02x PS, 0.60x forward PS, 3.01x PB, 1.46x EV/Sales, and 742.15x EV/FCF | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | About 13.63x FY2026 forward PE using the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of $0.84, versus 42.69x on the statistics page which uses a different forward estimate basis | StockAnalysis.com forecast and statistics | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average target of $14.33 across 12 analysts, low $10.50 and high $17, median $14.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | UBS raised to $17 from $12 on July 31, 2026; Needham maintained $17 on July 6; BTIG raised to $15 from $12 on July 15; Barclays raised to $15 from $12 on July 14; Wells Fargo raised to $12 from $9 with a Hold rating on July 7 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | July 31, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue of $13.98 billion (up about 100% from $6.96 billion, mostly from the Anywhere full-year contribution) with adjusted EPS of $0.84 (range $0.49 to $1.23), and FY2027 revenue of $15.19 billion with adjusted EPS of $0.78 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Short interest | 48.51 million shares short, 6.49% of shares outstanding and 6.68% of float, 2.93 days to cover, up from 46.40 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| NY AG antitrust investigation | The New York Attorney General confirmed an antitrust investigation into Compass on June 3, 2026; COMP fell 12.69% to $7.54 that day and rebounded to $7.92 by June 4; Compass and Anywhere together accounted for roughly 30% to 40% of Manhattan transaction volume in 2024 per an Oppenheimer estimate, and the DOJ cleared the merger after staff had pushed to investigate | New York Post, WSJ, and The Real Deal via StockAnalysis news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $6.37 to $13.96, up 57.54% over the trailing 52 weeks, beta 2.34 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 5-day SMA near $11.63, 20-day SMA near $11.71, 50-day SMA near $10.28, 100-day SMA near $9.04, 200-day SMA near $9.67, 14-day RSI near 51.64, 14-day ADX near 21.74, 14-day historic volatility near 55.57%, 20-day average volume near 12.18 million shares | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026, after market close, which is after the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, so Q1 2026 remains the latest reported quarter | StockAnalysis.com and Compass press release | August 3, 2026 |
| Risk scores | Altman Z-Score of 1.05 and Piotroski F-Score of 5 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell COMP stock. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data, technical snapshots, and stated assumptions as of the data cutoff date and may be wrong. Compass carries significant debt, recent heavy dilution, and an ongoing antitrust investigation, and Q1 2026 GAAP profitability includes a one-time deferred tax benefit. Always verify current filings, prices, risks, and personal suitability before making financial decisions.
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