Columbia Sportswear Company research snapshot
COLM AI stock analysis reads Columbia Sportswear as a durable, family-controlled outdoor apparel business with a fortress balance sheet, about $625 million in cash, no debt, growing international sales, and strong shareholder returns. The caution is that the July 30, 2026 Q2 report showed a $0.41 per-share underlying loss excluding $78 million in one-time US tariff refunds, US sales fell 4%, and Q3 2026 sales are guided down 1.5% to flat, even though the company raised reported full-year EPS guidance to $4.45 to $4.90. At $58.44 with a $2.99 billion market cap, the AI score is 55 out of 100 with a Hold-leaning rating. The COLM AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction, and this page is an information tool, not investment advice, with a data cutoff of August 3, 2026.
Current price
$58.44
Market cap
$2.99 billion market cap
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Hold-leaning: fortress balance sheet, international growth, and a 10.7% free cash flow yield offset by soft US demand, tariff uncertainty, and earnings flattered by one-time tariff refunds
Trend status
Trading below the 50-day moving average near $63.99 and right at the 200-day moving average near $58.45 after a mixed Q2 2026 report on July 30, down about 7% from the July 10 level of $62.97, with the YTD gain narrowing to roughly 5.8%
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Customers pay for Columbia, Mountain Hardwear, prAna, and Sorel outdoor apparel, footwear, and accessories built on functional technologies such as Omni-Heat, Omni-Tech, and Omni-MAX. TTM revenue through June 2026 was $3.41 billion with a 52.2% gross margin and a 7.5% operating margin. | Medium-high |
| Moat | 88 years of brand heritage, proprietary fabric technologies, global distribution scale, and family control support a moderate moat, but switching costs are low and competition is intense from premium brands such as Patagonia and Arc'teryx plus value players. | Medium |
| Management | The founding Boyle family controls the company. Capital allocation is disciplined with buybacks (share count down 5.9% year over year), a $1.20 dividend, and no debt. Q2 2026 raised reported full-year EPS guidance to $4.45 to $4.90. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue has been flat: $3.49B (FY2023), $3.37B (FY2024), $3.40B (FY2025), $3.41B TTM. Net income fell from $311M in FY2022 to $177M in FY2025 before recovering to $206M TTM, with margin pressure partly offset by tariff refunds in Q2 2026. | High |
| Valuation | At $58.44, COLM trades at about 15.0x trailing earnings, 12.8x to 15.1x forward earnings, 0.88x sales, 1.90x book, and 9.0x EV/EBITDA, with a 10.7% free cash flow yield and a 2.05% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 50-day moving average near $63.99 and at the 200-day moving average near $58.45 with RSI near 36, after a post-earnings pullback from $62.97 in mid-July. The 52-week range is $47.47 to $69.06. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are soft US discretionary demand, tariff policy uncertainty, Middle East supply chain disruptions, brand aging risk, and elevated short interest near 17% of float. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Historical financials, valuation ratios, and balance sheet items come from company filings and cross-checked databases. Forecast confidence is lower because consumer demand, tariffs, and competitive dynamics shift. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | COLM is financially sound with a reasonable valuation and a meaningful free cash flow yield, but near-term catalysts are limited and reported earnings power is flattered by one-time refunds, so certainty is low to medium. | Low to medium |
COLM AI stock forecast
The COLM AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $58.44 August 3, 2026 price reference, FY2026 reported EPS guidance of $4.45 to $4.90, and a three-year earnings multiple framework. The research model points to a bearish area near $44, a base area near $61, and a bullish area near $80 over three years, depending on whether US demand recovers, international growth continues, tariffs stay low, and margins hold.
$72 to $88
More likely if international sales keep growing at high single digits, the ACCELERATE strategy revives US wholesale and DTC, gross margin holds above 52%, FY2027 EPS exceeds $5.20, and the stock re-rates toward a 15x to 16x forward multiple.
$55 to $68
More likely if reported FY2026 EPS lands in the $4.45 to $4.90 guidance range, revenue grows 1% to 3%, underlying margins stay under modest pressure, and the stock trades near a 13x to 14x forward multiple.
$40 to $52
More likely if US discretionary demand weakens further, tariffs return to higher levels, underlying EPS excluding refunds stagnates near $3.50 to $4.00, or the stock de-rates toward an 11x to 12x multiple.
COLM AI technical analysis
COLM AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 data cutoff with MarketBeat and stockanalysis.com quote data. The stock pulled back roughly 7% from its July 10 level of $62.97 after the mixed July 30 Q2 report, and now trades below its 50-day moving average while testing the 200-day moving average near $58.45, with RSI near 36 and elevated short interest creating two-sided risk.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $58.44 | MarketBeat and stockanalysis.com reported COLM near $58.44 at the August 3, 2026 close reference. |
| Immediate support | $55 to $58 | The August 3 intraday low was $58.14. A break of $55 would signal that the post-earnings downtrend is extending. |
| Deeper support | $50 to $53 | This area was tested earlier in 2026 before the rally to $62.97, and the 52-week low sits at $47.47. |
| Near resistance | $60 to $61 | The August 3 intraday high was $61.23. This zone marks the initial overhead supply from the recent decline. |
| Upside resistance | $64 to $69 | The 50-day moving average is about $63.99 and the 52-week high is $69.06, forming a resistance cluster above current price. |
| Moving averages | 50-day SMA near $63.99, 200-day SMA near $58.45 | Price is below the 50-day average and right at the 200-day average. Holding above the 200-day is the first constructive signal. |
| Momentum | RSI near 36 | Relative strength is approaching oversold territory, suggesting the decline may be maturing but is not yet confirmed as a reversal. |
| Short interest | 3.63 million shares, about 17% of float, 6.8 days to cover | Short interest fell about 11% month over month, easing but still elevated, which keeps both squeeze risk and downside risk alive. |
| Volume | 542,878 shares on August 3 versus a 20-day average of about 571,000 | Volume was slightly below average on the down day, consistent with drift rather than panic selling. |
| Volatility | Beta of 0.93, 52-week range $47.47 to $69.06 | Beta near 1.0 means COLM moves broadly in line with the broader market. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $55, then below $47 | A close below $55 would weaken the base case. A move toward the $47.47 low would return the stock to bearish conditions. |
COLM AI trading strategy
The COLM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It combines balance-sheet quality, margin and guidance monitoring, valuation discipline, tariff and consumer data, and technical invalidation levels.
Watch for COLM to reclaim and hold above the 50-day moving average near $64 with above-average volume, then confirm through the Q3 2026 earnings report that US sales stabilized, gross margin held near 52%, and full-year guidance was maintained or raised.
A failed attempt that closes back below $55 would invalidate the setup and suggest the post-earnings downtrend is extending.
If COLM pulls back toward $52 to $55 without a cut to full-year guidance or a fall in gross margin below 51%, compare the reset against about 13x forward reported earnings and a free cash flow yield above 10% before adding exposure.
Do not treat the pullback as benign if the company lowers guidance, US wholesale deteriorates, or tariff policy shifts materially higher.
With short interest near 17% of float and 6.8 days to cover, a positive catalyst such as a US demand recovery, an international beat, or a guidance raise could force a sharp move higher.
Short squeezes are unpredictable. Short interest fell about 11% month over month, so positioning should reflect that bears have been trimming.
Investment research summary
Columbia Sportswear designs, sources, markets, and distributes outdoor apparel, footwear, and accessories. Customers pay for functional performance technologies such as Omni-Heat, Omni-Tech, and Omni-MAX plus 88 years of brand trust, across the Columbia, Mountain Hardwear, prAna, and Sorel brands.
The moat is moderate. Brand recognition, proprietary fabric technologies, global distribution scale, and family control provide stability, but switching costs are low and the outdoor apparel market is crowded with premium brands such as Patagonia and Arc'teryx, sportswear giants, and value players.
The thesis fails if soft US discretionary demand persists, tariffs return to higher levels, the ACCELERATE strategy fails to revive the US Columbia brand, international growth decelerates, gross margin falls below 51%, or the elevated short interest reflects correct skepticism about underlying earnings power beyond one-time tariff refunds.
The Boyle family controls the company, giving governance stability but limiting outside influence. Management has been disciplined, cutting the share count 5.9% in a year while paying a $1.20 dividend and keeping a fortress balance sheet with no debt. The Q2 2026 call raised reported full-year EPS guidance to $4.45 to $4.90.
Columbia benefits from durable long-term outdoor recreation demand, but the category is mature with no civilization-level paradigm shift. The main growth engine is international expansion, led by China, Japan, Korea, and Europe, with international markets now more than 40% of sales.
At about 15x trailing and 13x forward reported earnings, 0.88x sales, and a 10.7% free cash flow yield, COLM is reasonably valued with a moderate margin of safety. The caveat is that reported earnings include $78 million of one-time tariff refunds, so underlying earnings power is lower than the reported guidance suggests.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock price | $58.44 at the August 3, 2026 close reference | MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Market cap | $2.99 billion, about $58.44 x 51.14 million shares | MarketBeat and stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 51.14 million, down 5.93% year over year | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.41 billion through June 2026, down 0.15% | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 annual revenue | $3.397 billion, up 0.85% | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $206.03 million | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $177.22 million, down 20.6% from FY2024 | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM diluted EPS | $3.85 | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 diluted EPS | $3.24, down from $3.82 in FY2024 | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | EPS $0.52 reported, $0.41 loss excluding tariff refunds; revenue $614 million, up 1.5% | MarketBeat earnings report and Q2 2026 transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 guidance | Reported diluted EPS $4.45 to $4.90; net sales growth 1% to 3%; operating margin 8.5% to 9.3% | Columbia Sportswear Q2 2026 earnings call, July 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Gross margin | TTM 52.16%; FY2025 50.53%; Q2 2026 58.3% reported with refunds | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| Operating margin | TTM 7.54%; FY2025 6.09% | stockanalysis.com (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and investments | About $625 million cash and short-term investments, no debt (Q2 2026) | Q2 2026 earnings call and stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | $1.20 per share annual, 2.05% yield, about 31% payout | stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Trailing PE 15.0x, forward PE 12.8x to 15.1x, P/S 0.88, P/B 1.90, EV/EBITDA 9.0x, FCF yield 10.7% | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
| Insider ownership | About 51.9% (MarketBeat) to 58.2% (stockanalysis.com) held by insiders | MarketBeat and stockanalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 3.63 million shares, about 17% of float, 6.81 days to cover, down 10.9% month over month | stockanalysis.com and MarketBeat | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold; average target $69.83 (S&P Global), range $47 to $92; MarketBeat average $65.40 | stockanalysis.com and MarketBeat forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical range | 52-week range $47.47 to $69.06; 50-day SMA near $63.99; 200-day SMA near $58.45; RSI 36.12 | stockanalysis.com (S&P Global) | August 3, 2026 |
This COLM AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of return. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026, and can be wrong if Columbia Sportswear growth, margins, tariffs, US consumer demand, or market valuation changes.
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