Canadian National Railway Company research snapshot
CNR AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Canadian National Railway as a high-quality rail franchise that delivered a beat-and-raise quarter and now trades at a full valuation. The TSX reference price was C$178.25 at the July 31, 2026 close, while the NYSE-listed CNI traded at US$126.65 on August 3, 2026, for a market capitalization near C$107.68 billion, verified as C$178.25 times 604.10 million shares outstanding and consistent across StockAnalysis.com and TradingView. The Q2 2026 report, released July 24, 2026, beat consensus with adjusted EPS of C$2.08, up 11%, reported EPS of C$2.06, up 10%, revenue of C$4.75 billion, up 11% on 5% revenue ton mile growth, and an adjusted operating ratio of 62.2%, and management raised 2026 guidance to low-single-digit RTM growth and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. Productivity improved with locomotive productivity up about 6%, employee productivity up about 9%, record first-half fuel efficiency, and roughly C$100 million of Fast Track benefits year to date, while leverage ended the quarter at 2.6x against a 2.7x target. Two Union Pacific agreements announced in July give CN direct access to Ferromex and Mexico traffic through Memphis and, subject to STB approval and merger closing, access to Kansas City, and CN agreed not to oppose the merger. The stock sits above its 50-day moving average near C$170.67 and its 200-day moving average near C$148.60, with 14-day RSI near 54.80, after pulling back about 4% from the all-time high of C$185.25 set on July 24, 2026. At about 22.9x trailing EPS and near 30x trailing free cash flow, the price already prices in a large share of the recovery. The page is informational only and is not investment advice.
Current price
C$178.25 at the July 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EST TSX close, the most recent confirmed TSX print, while the NYSE-listed CNI traded at US$126.65 on August 3, 2026, 11:58 AM EDT, down 0.44%
Market cap
C$107.68 billion
AI score
74 / 100
Rating
High-quality rail franchise with a beat-and-raise quarter and a full valuation
Trend status
Constructive. Above the 50-day moving average near C$170.67 and the 200-day near C$148.60 with a neutral daily technical rating, about 4% below the C$185.25 all-time high set on July 24, 2026
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CN is a Class I transcontinental rail network spanning roughly 18,900 route miles that moves grain, fertilizers, petroleum, chemicals, coal, metals, forest products, automotive, intermodal, and consumer freight between Canada, the U.S. Midwest, and the Gulf Coast. | High |
| Moat | Scarce rights of way, network density, port and terminal access, interchange connections, safety systems, and customer logistics integration are hard to replicate, though regulation and truck competition limit pricing power. | High |
| Management | Tracy Robinson and the leadership team delivered a Q2 2026 beat-and-raise with adjusted EPS up 11%, record first-half fuel efficiency, roughly C$100 million of Fast Track benefits, a raised 2026 outlook, and two Union Pacific agreements that expand network reach toward Mexico and, pending approval, Kansas City. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 11% to C$4.75 billion on 5% RTM growth, adjusted EPS rose 11% to C$2.08, YTD free cash flow rose about 20%, and management raised 2026 guidance to low-single-digit RTM growth and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth, though the adjusted operating ratio slipped 50 basis points to 62.2%. | High |
| Valuation | At about 22.9x trailing EPS, 20.8x forward EPS, 30.4x trailing free cash flow, and 15.1x EV/EBITDA, the market already prices in successful execution and further growth. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Constructive. CNR closed at C$178.25 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near C$170.67 and the 200-day near C$148.60, with 14-day RSI near 54.80 and a neutral daily technical rating, about 4% below the C$185.25 all-time high set on July 24, 2026. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are cyclical freight demand, fuel price swings that cost the operating ratio 210 basis points in Q2, FX, tariffs on steel and aluminum and broader trade policy, overseas intermodal weakness, wildfire and weather disruption, labor, accidents, regulation, the STB merger review, and a full valuation. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math that matched across StockAnalysis.com, TradingView, the Q2 2026 earnings call, and the Q2 2026 earnings release. Lower for forward return estimates because volumes, pricing, fuel, FX, and merger outcomes are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page gives a research framework and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
CNR AI stock forecast
The CNR AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the C$178.25 July 31, 2026 TSX reference price and the FY2026 consensus adjusted EPS of C$8.14. A three-year model with adjusted EPS growth of 12%, 9%, and 3% and exit multiples of 25x, 22x, and 18x produced approximately C$286 in a bullish case, C$232 in a base case, and C$160 in a bearish case before dividends, computed with the Pineify financial_rigor.py tool. These are scenarios, not price commitments.
C$270 to C$300 before dividends
More likely if RTM growth holds at or above low-single-digit levels, pricing stays ahead of rail cost inflation, productivity and Fast Track gains continue, fuel and FX turn favorable, and the Union Pacific agreements add Mexico volume while the merger settlement closes.
C$220 to C$245 before dividends
More likely if CN delivers low-single-digit RTM growth and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth per the raised 2026 outlook, free cash flow converts well, and the market holds the multiple near 20x to 23x forward earnings.
C$150 to C$170 before dividends
More likely if an industrial or consumer slowdown cuts freight volumes, tariffs or trade policy reduce cross-border traffic, fuel and labor costs outrun pricing, overseas intermodal stays weak, the merger remedy fails to close, or the premium multiple compresses toward 17x to 18x.
CNR AI technical analysis
CNR AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. CNR closed at C$178.25 on July 31, 2026, above the 50-day moving average near C$170.67 and the 200-day moving average near C$148.60, with 14-day RSI near 54.80, beta near 1.01 on a 5-year basis per StockAnalysis.com and 0.94 on a 1-year basis per TradingView, and a neutral daily technical rating with a buy on the 1-week view and a strong buy on the 1-month view per TradingView. After the July 24, 2026 earnings-day all-time high of C$185.25, the stock pulled back about 4% to C$178.25, with a 52-week range of C$126.11 to C$185.25.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | C$178.25 | StockAnalysis.com listed the TSX reference price at C$178.25 at the July 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close, while the NYSE-listed CNI traded at US$126.65 on August 3, 2026; TradingView showed the same C$178.25 TSX print. |
| 50-day moving average | C$170.67 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 50-day moving average near C$170.67 as of August 3, 2026, a natural first support zone after the post-earnings pullback. |
| Near support | C$170 to C$172 | The 50-day moving average area near C$170.67 is the first support zone to watch if the pullback from the high extends. |
| 200-day moving average | C$148.60 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day moving average near C$148.60, well below price and confirming the longer-term uptrend. |
| Deeper support | C$148 to C$152 | The 200-day moving average near C$148.60 forms a major support zone; a sustained break would weaken the long-term setup. |
| Near resistance | C$178 to C$185 | The recent trading area and the all-time high of C$185.25 set on July 24, 2026 represent the immediate resistance zone. |
| Momentum | RSI near 54.80, neutral rating | 14-day RSI near 54.80 on StockAnalysis.com is neutral, and TradingView showed a neutral daily summary, a buy on the 1-week view, and a strong buy on the 1-month view. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 1.23 million shares on the TSX | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 1.23 million shares on the TSX and about 1.46 million on the NYSE listing, useful for judging breakout quality. |
| Volatility | Beta near 1.0 | StockAnalysis.com reported 5-year beta near 1.01 and TradingView near 0.94 on a 1-year basis, close to market-average volatility, with earnings and fuel swings creating extra noise. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below C$148 | A decisive close below the 200-day moving average near C$148.60 would invalidate the current long-term uptrend and require a fresh review of traffic and fundamentals. |
CNR AI trading strategy
The CNR AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines technical levels with RTMs, carloads, freight revenue per RTM, the operating ratio, fuel and labor costs, free cash flow, capital spending, leverage, dividends, buybacks, and trade or regulatory developments.
Watch for CNR to hold the 50-day moving average near C$170.67 and reclaim the C$178 to C$185 zone toward the C$185.25 all-time high with constructive volume, stable service metrics, and no deterioration in RTM growth or operating-ratio guidance.
A failed re-test of the high followed by a sustained close below C$170 should reduce trend confidence, especially if traffic, pricing, or the operating ratio weakens.
If CNR pulls back toward C$170 to C$172 or deeper toward C$148 to C$152, compare the valuation with normalized EPS and free cash flow, leverage, traffic mix, and the operating ratio before treating the dip as value.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule, because fuel, tariff, weather, merger, or labor headlines can turn a support zone into a deeper drawdown at a premium multiple.
Track RTMs, carloads, freight revenue per RTM, the operating ratio, fuel and labor costs, Fast Track benefits, free cash flow, capital spending, debt to EBITDA, dividends, buybacks, grain and energy volumes, overseas intermodal, the Union Pacific agreements, and the STB merger process.
Position sizing should reflect that CNR is a cyclical transport franchise with leverage near 2.6x and fixed infrastructure, not a guaranteed compounding asset.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CN to move bulk commodities, manufactured goods, energy products, and intermodal containers across a cross-border rail network spanning about 18,900 route miles. The company converts network access, service, pricing, and operating discipline into transport cash flow.
CN benefits from scarce rights of way, network density, port and terminal access, interchange connections, regulatory barriers, and customer logistics integration. Those advantages are durable, but service quality and competitive alternatives still matter.
The thesis fails if a downturn weakens freight demand and pricing, fuel or labor costs outrun revenue, tariffs reduce cross-border traffic, service deteriorates, a major accident or wildfire disrupts the network, debt rises, or a premium valuation compresses.
Tracy Robinson leads an operating and commercial agenda that produced a Q2 2026 beat-and-raise, record first-half fuel efficiency, roughly C$100 million of Fast Track benefits, raised 2026 guidance, and two Union Pacific agreements that extend the network toward Mexico and, pending approval, Kansas City.
Rail can benefit from freight efficiency, supply-chain resilience, cross-border trade, grain, energy, potash, and intermodal demand. Offsets include uneven industrial activity, trucking competition, tariff or trade changes, regulation, weather, decarbonization costs, and labor availability.
At about 22.9x trailing EPS and near 30x trailing free cash flow, the current price reflects a premium for scarce rail infrastructure and the improved outlook. The margin of safety depends on whether RTM growth, pricing, and cash conversion can justify the multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNR TSX reference price | C$178.25 at the July 31, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close, the most recent confirmed TSX print, with the NYSE-listed CNI trading at US$126.65 on August 3, 2026, 11:58 AM EDT | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR quote and CNI real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | C$107.68 billion reported and C$107.68 billion calculated from C$178.25 x 604.10 million shares, a 0.00% difference, verified with the Pineify financial_rigor.py tool | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 604.10 million shares outstanding, down 2.33% year over year and down 0.72% quarter over quarter, with a float of 603.23 million | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted results | Adjusted diluted EPS of C$2.08, up 11% year over year, or C$2.09 exchange-adjusted, up 12%, beating the C$1.98 consensus, with reported diluted EPS of C$2.06, up 10% | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and volume | Revenue of C$4.75 billion, up 11% year over year, on 5% revenue ton mile growth, above the C$4.62 billion consensus | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call and AlphaStreet results | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating ratio | Adjusted operating ratio of 62.2%, up 50 basis points from 61.7% a year earlier, with higher fuel prices costing the ratio 210 basis points | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income | Net income of C$1.25 billion in the quarter, per TradingView | TradingView TSX:CNR financials | July 24, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raise | Low-single-digit RTM growth (raised from roughly flat volumes) and mid- to high-single-digit adjusted diluted EPS growth, with the WTI assumption maintained at US$80 to US$110 per barrel, the FX assumption updated from CAD 0.73 to CAD 0.71, and an effective tax rate of 25% to 26% | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Leverage | Leverage of 2.6x at the end of Q2 2026, against a maintained 2.7x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA target for 2026 | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Free cash flow year to date | YTD free cash flow up about 20%, or roughly C$300 million, driven by stronger earnings, disciplined capital spending, and working capital, partly offset by higher tax payments | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Productivity in Q2 2026 | Gross ton miles up 3% using existing assets, locomotive productivity up about 6%, employee productivity up about 9%, train-and-engine employee productivity up about 13%, train length up about 1%, and the best Q2 and first-half fuel efficiency in company history | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Fast Track benefits | Close to C$100 million of realized Fast Track continuous-improvement benefits so far in 2026, with the initial review of major terminals largely complete | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Commodity performance | Record Q2 Western Canadian grain and record Q2 potash, grain and fertilizers revenue of C$980 million up 18%, petroleum and chemicals RTMs up 11%, NGL RTMs up more than 15%, metals volumes up 11% despite steel and aluminum tariffs, refined product RTMs up nearly 30% into the GTA fuel terminal, and coal RTMs flat | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call and AlphaStreet results | July 24, 2026 |
| Intermodal and second-half outlook | Domestic intermodal grew, overseas intermodal declined year over year on difficult tariff-related comparisons and is expected weak in the second half partly due to demarketing low-profitability Port of Vancouver shipments, and Q4 grain comparisons are expected to be more challenging | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Union Pacific commercial agreement | A commercial agreement gives CN new rights for Canada-to-Mexico traffic through Memphis with direct access to Ferromex, extends CN length of haul from Chicago to Memphis, is effective once definitive documentation is completed, and is not contingent on the merger, while Union Pacific receives rights to additional capacity on the EJ&E line funded by UP | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Union Pacific settlement agreement | A settlement agreement contingent on STB approval and closing of the proposed Union Pacific merger gives CN competitive access to Kansas City and use of Union Pacific NEF yard, with five identified two-to-one customers and additional three-to-two opportunities, and CN agreed not to oppose the merger | Canadian National Q2 2026 earnings call | July 24, 2026 |
| Network size | Roughly 18,900 total route miles reported for the quarter, with about 23,825 employees per StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR | AlphaStreet Q2 2026 results and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of C$17.30 billion, up 1.51% from C$17.05 billion, and net income of C$4.72 billion, up 6.12% | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR and TradingView | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of C$17.76 billion, net income of C$4.78 billion, basic EPS of C$7.79, EBITDA of C$8.60 billion, and a 48.4% EBITDA margin | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash of C$307 million, total debt of C$22.75 billion, net debt of C$22.45 billion, equity of C$21.90 billion, book value per share of C$36.21, and a debt to equity ratio of 1.04 | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow and capital spending | TTM operating cash flow of C$7.02 billion, capital expenditures of C$3.47 billion, free cash flow of C$3.55 billion, and free cash flow per share of C$5.87 | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 22.88x trailing PE, 20.76x forward PE, 6.06x sales, 4.92x book value, 30.35x trailing free cash flow, 2.15x PEG, and 15.14x EV/EBITDA | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Returns and profitability | ROE of 22.02%, ROIC of 12.32%, operating margin of 40.65%, and an effective tax rate of 25.01% | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annual dividend of C$3.66 with a 2.05% yield, 29 consecutive years of growth, a 46.15% payout ratio, and the next ex-dividend date on September 8, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus, TSX | Buy consensus across 30 analysts with an average price target of C$189.68, about 6.41% above the C$178.25 reference price | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus, NYSE | Buy consensus across 30 analysts with an average price target of US$138.85, a low of US$113.50, a median of US$140.07, and a high of US$151.67, about 9.63% above the US$126.65 price | StockAnalysis.com CNI forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 10 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 13 Hold, 1 Sell, and 1 Strong Sell out of 30 analysts | StockAnalysis.com CNI forecast recommendation trends | July 29, 2026 |
| Post-Q2 analyst target updates | Scotiabank to C$199 (Outperform), CIBC to C$198 (Outperformer), RBC Capital to C$205 (Outperform), BMO to C$195 (Outperform), Evercore ISI to US$139, Barclays to US$130 (Equal Weight), and BofA to US$146 (Buy), with US-dollar targets at Wells Fargo US$145, J.P. Morgan US$130, and Evercore ISI US$139 | StockAnalysis.com CNI news feed and TheFly analyst updates | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue consensus of C$18.48 billion with adjusted EPS of C$8.14 (range C$7.93 to C$8.30), FY2027 revenue of C$19.23 billion with adjusted EPS of C$8.98, a 3-year revenue growth forecast of 5.34%, and a 3-year EPS growth forecast of 9.31% | StockAnalysis.com CNI financial forecast | July 29, 2026 |
| Short interest | 4.69 million shares short on the TSX, 0.74% of shares outstanding, up from 2.35 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range of C$126.11 to C$185.25, up about 36.75% over the trailing 52 weeks on the TSX, with 5-year beta near 1.01 and 1-year beta near 0.94 | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR and TradingView | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near C$170.67, 200-day moving average near C$148.60, 14-day RSI near 54.80, and 20-day average volume near 1.23 million shares on the TSX | StockAnalysis.com TSX:CNR statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Scheduled for October 30, 2026, per TradingView | TradingView TSX:CNR | August 3, 2026 |
This CNR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Canadian National Railway stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available data as of the August 4, 2026 cutoff, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, traffic, balance-sheet, operating, regulatory, or macroeconomic information changes.
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