Canadian National Railway Company research snapshot
CNI AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Canadian National Railway as a high-quality transcontinental rail franchise that just delivered a beat-and-raise second quarter. The July 31, 2026 NYSE close was $127.21, the reported market capitalization is about $76.76 billion, and the AI score is 72 out of 100, reflecting strong business quality and improving momentum offset by a full valuation. The Q2 2026 report, released July 24, 2026, showed revenue up 11% to C$4.75 billion, adjusted EPS up 11% to C$2.08, record Western Canadian grain and potash volumes, and a raised 2026 outlook to low-single-digit revenue ton mile growth and mid-to-high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. The shares hold above the 50-day moving average near $121.48 and the 200-day moving average near $107.08. The offset is a premium valuation at about 22.79x trailing EPS and 30.36x free cash flow, with tariff, fuel cost, and harder fourth-quarter comparisons as live risks. This CNI AI stock analysis is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$127.21 (July 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$76.76 billion reported market cap
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality rail franchise with improved momentum and a full valuation
Trend status
Constructive, holding above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CN moves more than 300 million tons of freight a year across a nearly 19,000-mile network connecting Canadian coasts with the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. Seven commodity groups and an intermodal business reduce dependence on any single end market. | High |
| Moat | Route rights, port access, network density, terminals, scale, safety systems, and customer logistics integration are hard to replicate. New Union Pacific agreements expand access to Memphis, Mexico, and, pending approval, Kansas City, though regulation and truck and marine competition still limit pricing power. | High |
| Management | President and CEO Tracy Robinson is running an execution and productivity agenda with visible results: a beat-and-raise Q2, record grain and potash volumes, about C$100 million of Fast Track benefits year to date, and capital discipline. The test is whether that holds through harder fourth-quarter comparisons. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 11% to C$4.75 billion, adjusted EPS rose 11% to C$2.08, and the adjusted operating ratio was 62.2%. Year-to-date free cash flow rose about 20%, and management raised 2026 guidance to low-single-digit RTM growth and mid-to-high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. | High |
| Valuation | At $127.21, audited inputs imply about 22.79x trailing EPS, 4.98x book value, 30.36x free cash flow, and a 2.06% indicated dividend yield. This is a quality-franchise multiple with a thinner margin of safety after the run to a 52-week high near $131.55. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close held above the 50-day average near $121.48 and the 200-day average near $107.08, with RSI at 56.96. The trend is constructive after a 35% gain over the past 52 weeks, though the stock has cooled from its post-earnings high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are tariff and trade disruption, fuel and wage inflation, a harder fourth-quarter comparison, overseas intermodal weakness, labor and weather events such as wildfires, derailments, regulation, a securities offering in progress, and competitive responses from trucking and other rails. | High |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the Q2 2026 results and market data cross-validated across StockAnalysis, RTTNews, MarketBeat, and AlphaStreet. Forecast confidence is lower because traffic, pricing, fuel, currency, and regulation are uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CNI remains a medium-certainty research candidate: a strong franchise and improving momentum against a premium valuation, tariff exposure, leverage, and harder comparisons. | Medium |
CNI AI stock forecast
The CNI AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a fixed price target. A reproducible three-year model using $127.21, trailing EPS of $5.49, EPS growth assumptions of about 0% to 9%, and earnings multiples of about 17x to 24x produces roughly $90 to $100 in a bear case, $130 to $145 in a base case, and $165 to $180 in a bullish case before dividends. StockAnalysis listed a $138.85 average analyst target with a $113.50 low and a $151.67 high on July 29, 2026, but that is sentiment context, not a promised outcome.
$165 to $180 before dividends
More likely if freight volumes and pricing keep improving, grain and potash exports stay strong, fuel costs stabilize, the operating ratio falls, the Union Pacific access agreements close, and investors keep a premium multiple.
$130 to $145 before dividends
More likely if RTM growth lands in the low single digits, adjusted EPS grows mid to high single digits as guided, free cash flow stays strong, buybacks continue, and the market holds a low-twenties multiple.
$90 to $100 before dividends
More likely if tariffs and overseas intermodal weakness cut volumes, fuel and labor costs push the operating ratio up, the fourth-quarter comparison disappoints, a securities offering raises debt or dilution concerns, or the rail-sector multiple compresses.
CNI AI technical analysis
CNI AI technical analysis is constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 31, 2026 close of $127.21, a 50-day moving average of $121.48, a 200-day moving average of $107.08, RSI of 56.96, beta of 1.01, a 52-week range of $90.74 to $131.55, and 20-day average volume of about 1.51 million shares. Price holds above both key averages, and momentum is moderate after the stock pulled back from its post-earnings high.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $127.21 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 NYSE close at $127.21, with after-hours near $126.00. |
| Immediate support | $120 to $122 | This range brackets the 50-day moving average reference near $121.48. |
| Deeper support | $106 to $108 | This range brackets the 200-day moving average reference near $107.08 and is not guaranteed support. |
| Near resistance | $130 to $132 | The stock reached a post-earnings high near $130.58 on July 24, 2026, and the 52-week high is $131.55. |
| Upper resistance | $138 to $140 | This is an observation range that includes the $138.85 average analyst target, not a precise price promise. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $121.48, 200-day $107.08 | Holding above both averages supports the trend. A sustained break below the 200-day average would weaken the long-term technical setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.96 | Momentum is moderate and below the overbought level near 70, so price and volume confirmation matter more than extrapolating the 52-week move. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 1.51 million shares | Read volume with freight data, operating-ratio trends, guidance, and broad industrial conditions. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.01 | Reported beta is near the broader market, though earnings, tariffs, fuel, weather, and operating events can still create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $121, then $107 | A sustained close below the 50-day average near $121 weakens the short-term trend. A sustained break below the 200-day average near $107 would invalidate the current long-term setup and require a fresh review. |
CNI AI trading strategy
The CNI AI trading strategy is a research framework, not personal advice. It combines the technical levels with revenue ton miles, carloads, pricing, the operating ratio, fuel and labor costs, free cash flow, capital spending, dividends, buybacks, leverage, tariff and trade news, and the progress of the Union Pacific access agreements.
Watch for CNI to hold the $120 to $122 support area and push back above $130 to $132 with constructive volume, stable RTM growth, and no deterioration in operating-ratio guidance.
A failed move followed by a sustained close below $120 should reduce trend confidence, especially if tariff or fuel news weakens.
If CNI pulls back toward $106 to $108, compare the valuation with normalized EPS and free cash flow, leverage, fuel costs, tariff exposure, and capital requirements before treating the dip as value.
Do not assume a lower rail price is automatically attractive if a freight downturn, higher fuel or labor costs, a securities offering, or regulation moves against the thesis.
Track RTMs, carloads, freight revenue per RTM, the operating ratio, fuel expense, Fast Track benefits, free cash flow, capex, debt to adjusted EBITDA near the 2.7x target, dividends, buybacks, the securities offering, tariffs, and the Union Pacific agreement milestones.
Position sizing should reflect that CN is a cyclical transport business with fixed infrastructure and event risk, not a guaranteed compounding asset.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CN to move grain, energy, forest, metals, intermodal, and automotive freight across a cross-border rail network. The company converts network access, service, pricing, and operating discipline into transport cash flow, with Q2 2026 revenue up 11% to C$4.75 billion.
CN benefits from a transcontinental network, scarce rights of way, port access, terminals, density, regulatory barriers, and customer logistics integration. The Union Pacific agreements add potential Memphis, Mexico, and Kansas City access, though service and truck competition still matter.
The thesis fails if tariffs and weaker freight demand cut volume and pricing, fuel and labor costs push the operating ratio up, the fourth-quarter comparison disappoints, a securities offering pressures the balance sheet, service deteriorates, or a premium multiple compresses.
Management delivered a beat-and-raise quarter, about C$100 million of Fast Track savings, record grain and potash volumes, and capital discipline while guiding to low-single-digit RTM growth and mid-to-high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth for 2026.
Rail can benefit from grain, energy, potash, intermodal, supply-chain resilience, and cross-border trade. Offsets include tariffs, overseas intermodal weakness, truck competition, weather, regulation, and decarbonization costs.
The current price reflects a premium for scarce rail infrastructure and resilient margins. The margin of safety depends on normalized freight volumes and free cash flow, because a high-quality network can still produce weak investor returns if bought at too high a multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNI quote reference | $127.21 close on July 31, 2026, with a 52-week range of $90.74 to $131.55 | StockAnalysis CNI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $76.76 billion reported; $76.85 billion calculated from $127.21 x 604.10 million shares, a 0.12% difference | StockAnalysis CNI statistics and Pineify calculation | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 604.10 million shares outstanding, down 2.33% year over year on buybacks | StockAnalysis CNI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating results | Revenue C$4.75 billion up 11%, net income C$1.25 billion, reported EPS C$2.06, adjusted EPS C$2.08 up 11%, adjusted operating ratio 62.2%, and RTMs up 5% | RTTNews via Nasdaq, MarketBeat Q2 call highlights, and AlphaStreet | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 financials | Revenue C$17.30 billion, net income C$4.72 billion, EPS C$7.57, operating margin 38.07%, and free cash flow C$3.39 billion | StockAnalysis CNI financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | Trailing EPS $5.49, FCF per share $4.19, book value per share $25.50, and annual dividend $2.61 (2.06% yield) | StockAnalysis CNI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical data | 50-day moving average $121.48, 200-day moving average $107.08, RSI 56.96, beta 1.01, and 20-day average volume about 1.51 million shares | StockAnalysis CNI statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | StockAnalysis lists $216.18 million cash and $16.02 billion total debt in USD, while the CAD balance sheet shows C$280 million cash and C$22.616 billion total debt. CN ended Q2 2026 at 2.6x leverage against a 2026 target of 2.7x adjusted debt to adjusted EBITDA. | StockAnalysis CNI statistics and MarketBeat Q2 call highlights | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Average target $138.85, consensus Buy from 30 analysts, with a $113.50 low and a $151.67 high. Post-Q2 raises include Evercore ISI to $139 and BofA to $146. | StockAnalysis CNI forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 outlook and estimates | Management raised guidance to low-single-digit RTM growth and mid-to-high-single-digit adjusted EPS growth. Consensus expects FY2026 EPS of C$8.14 and revenue of C$18.48 billion. | StockAnalysis CNI forecast and MarketBeat Q2 call highlights | August 2, 2026 |
This CNI AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell Canadian National Railway stock, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios use available data as of August 2, 2026, can be wrong, and should be updated when new earnings, traffic, balance-sheet, operating, regulatory, tariff, or macroeconomic information changes.
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