CNH Industrial N.V. research snapshot
CNH AI stock analysis currently reads CNH Industrial N.V. as a major agriculture and construction equipment maker with Case IH, New Holland, CASE Construction brands, dealer and parts networks, precision agriculture tools, and captive finance. Business quality is real, but the August 2026 data cutoff still shows the company in an equipment demand trough: FY2025 revenue fell 9% to $18.10 billion, net income fell to $505 million, and the reaffirmed 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is only $0.35 to $0.45. At $10.25, CNH traded near 33.1x trailing EPS of about $0.31, about 1.64x book value, and roughly 10x trailing free cash flow per share. The CNH AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside needs an agriculture recovery into 2027, margin repair, and inventory discipline, while downside remains if the trough lasts longer, finance credit weakens, or the multiple compresses on depressed earnings.
Current price
$10.25
Market cap
$12.71 billion verified market cap
AI score
50 / 100
Rating
Solid agriculture and construction equipment franchise still in an industry trough with elevated trough multiples
Trend status
Short-term neutral to weak: price sits below the 50-day and 200-day averages after pulling back from the 52-week high near $13.31
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CNH sells mission-critical tractors, combines, construction machines, parts, services, precision tools, and equipment financing to farmers and builders who need uptime and productivity. | High |
| Moat | Brand portfolio, dealer density, parts availability, installed base, financing relationships, and scale create a meaningful moat, though it is generally narrower than Deere in premium large agriculture. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Gerrit Marx, in the role since July 2024, has focused on production discipline, inventory reduction, quality, operational excellence, and a cautious 2026 production plan. Capital allocation will be tested through the trough. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 consolidated revenue fell 9% to $18.10 billion and net income fell to $505 million from $1.259 billion. Industrial free cash flow improved to $513 million, but Q1 2026 net income was only $10 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $10.25, CNH screens rich on trough earnings at about 33x trailing EPS of $0.31 and about 25x FY2025 EPS of $0.41, while book value near $6.27 implies about 1.64x price to book. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 50-day and 200-day averages near $10.58 and $10.61 after a pullback from the 52-week high near $13.31, with RSI in the low 40s and limited evidence of a durable trend reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are prolonged ag weakness, construction softness, dealer inventory, tariffs, used equipment values, financial services credit, high gross leverage, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases and third-party data agree. Forecast confidence is lower because cycle timing, margins, and sentiment remain unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CNH is a legitimate cycle franchise, but the current price offers only limited margin of safety unless earnings recover faster than the soft 2026 guidance implies. | Medium-low |
CNH AI stock forecast
The CNH AI stock forecast uses the $10.25 price reference, FY2025 diluted EPS of $0.41, analyst consensus of about $0.41 for FY2026 and $0.73 for FY2027, and a three-year scenario framework. The model produced a bullish area near $13 to $16, a base area near $8.50 to $11.50, and a bearish area near $4.50 to $6.50 before dividends. The wide range reflects trough-cycle uncertainty rather than a single target price.
$13.00 to $16.00
More likely if agriculture demand bottoms in 2026 and recovers into 2027 as management expects, construction stays stable, adjusted EPS moves back toward $1.00 or more by 2028, industrial free cash flow expands, and investors pay around 13 to 15 times recovered earnings.
$8.50 to $11.50
More likely if EPS recovers only slowly from the trough, adjusted EPS reaches roughly $0.70 to $0.90 by 2028, margins stay compressed, and the market values CNH closer to an 11 to 13 times cyclical industrial multiple.
$4.50 to $6.50
More likely if farm income stays weak, production cuts fail to protect margins, financial services credit costs rise, free cash flow stalls, and investors re-rate CNH toward a high-single-digit earnings multiple.
CNH AI technical analysis
CNH AI technical analysis is neutral to weak as of the August 2026 cutoff. Market data around the reference close of $10.25 showed a 50-day moving average near $10.58, a 200-day moving average near $10.61, RSI near the low 40s, and 20-day average volume near 11 million shares. Price remains below both major averages after pulling back from the 52-week high near $13.31, so the useful framework is to separate a reclaim of the $10.60 to $11.30 band from a deeper reset toward the $9.50 to $10.00 area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $10.25 | Current market-data reference used for valuation and market-cap checks at the August 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $10.00 to $10.20 | This zone brackets the recent trading range and is the first area buyers need to defend after the pullback below the moving averages. |
| Moving-average resistance | $10.55 to $10.65 | This band overlaps common 50-day and 200-day references and acts as first resistance while price remains below both averages. |
| Deeper support | $9.00 to $9.50 | A break through the low-$10s would open a larger trend reset toward the prior base near the 52-week low of $9.00. |
| Near resistance | $10.90 to $11.30 | A sustained reclaim of the low-$11s would improve short-term trend quality after the extended pullback. |
| Major resistance | $12.50 to $13.31 | The 52-week high near $13.31 is the reference for a completed recovery after the trough rally. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $10.58, 200-day near $10.61 | Different technical vendors show slightly different averages, so the page treats them as a range rather than a single exact trigger. |
| Momentum | RSI near the low 40s across common chart vendors | Momentum is not oversold enough to force a bounce and not strong enough to confirm a new uptrend. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 11 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because CNH is liquid and can move quickly around inventory, guidance, and ag-cycle headlines. |
| Volatility | Watch 2026 demand guidance, dealer inventory, tariffs, and finance credit | The next earnings update on August 3, 2026 can change the trend quickly because management still frames 2026 as a trough year ahead of a hoped-for 2027 recovery. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.00, then below $9.00 for the larger setup | A break below $10 weakens the short-term base. A break near $9 would challenge any recovery thesis based only on mean reversion. |
CNH AI trading strategy
The CNH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend behavior with agriculture demand, dealer inventory, construction activity, used equipment values, tariffs, financial services credit quality, free cash flow, and valuation discipline.
Watch for CNH to reclaim the $10.60 to $11.30 resistance band while results show stable or better order quality, lower dealer inventory risk, and no deterioration in financial services credit.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $10.00 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management points to weaker agriculture demand or higher cost and tariff pressure.
If CNH pulls back toward the $9.00 to $10.00 support zone without a collapse in industrial free cash flow, dealer health, or product competitiveness, compare the lower price with long-term franchise quality versus Deere and construction peers.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if used equipment values weaken, credit losses rise, or production discipline fails to protect cash flow.
Track Agriculture net sales and adjusted EBIT margin, Construction net sales and margin, industrial free cash flow, dealer inventory, tariff costs, financial services delinquency trends, adjusted EPS, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that CNH is a cyclical equipment franchise with finance leverage, not a guaranteed compounding stock at any price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CNH because farmers and construction customers need reliable iron, parts, service, financing, and increasingly connected machines that help protect uptime and productivity through seasonal field and jobsite work.
The moat is strongest in multi-brand coverage, dealer and parts density, installed base, captive finance relationships, and scale in global agriculture and construction equipment. It narrows when farm income falls, dealers de-stock, and buyers delay replacement cycles.
The thesis fails if the agriculture downturn lasts longer than expected, construction softens, dealer inventories rebuild, tariffs erode margins, financial services credit losses rise, free cash flow stalls, or the stock multiple compresses before earnings recover.
Gerrit Marx has emphasized production discipline, quality, inventory reduction, and technology integration since becoming CEO in July 2024. The management test is whether CNH can protect the balance sheet and franchise through the trough without overreaching on capital returns.
CNH benefits from long-run food productivity needs, precision agriculture, infrastructure and construction activity, and lifecycle parts and service revenue. The offset is exposure to crop prices, farmer income, interest rates, tariffs, dealer channels, and equipment financing cycles.
At $10.25, the market is paying a high multiple on trough earnings for a hoped-for recovery into 2027. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward the base-case range or if EPS and free cash flow recover strongly enough to absorb the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNH quote reference | $10.25 close reference on July 31, 2026 | Market quotes from StockAnalysis and CBOE CNH pages | July 31, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.71 billion reported and calculated from $10.25 x 1.24 billion shares | StockAnalysis market cap and key statistics pages with share counts | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.24 billion shares outstanding across StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, and Macrotrends | StockAnalysis statistics and Macrotrends shares outstanding | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $18.10 billion consolidated revenues and $505 million net income; diluted EPS $0.41; adjusted diluted EPS $0.55 | CNH Industrial FY2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 segment results | Agriculture net sales $12.39 billion with adjusted EBIT margin 6.2%; Construction net sales $2.96 billion with adjusted EBIT margin 2.3%; Financial Services revenues $2.72 billion | CNH Industrial FY2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 industrial free cash flow | Industrial free cash flow $513 million versus negative $401 million in 2024; operating cash flow $2.538 billion | CNH Industrial FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.83 billion consolidated revenues, $10 million net income, $0.01 diluted EPS, adjusted net income $21 million, and industrial free cash flow absorption of $589 million | CNH Industrial Q1 2026 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 company outlook | Agriculture net sales down 5% to flat; construction about flat; industrial free cash flow $150 million to $350 million; adjusted diluted EPS $0.35 to $0.45 | CNH Industrial Q1 2026 results release guidance reaffirmation | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and book value | About $1.35 billion total cash, $26.26 billion total debt, book value per share about $6.27, and equity about $7.87 billion on recent market-data snapshots | StockAnalysis CNH statistics and balance sheet pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 33.1x trailing PE on $0.31 EPS, about 25x on FY2025 $0.41 EPS, about 20.5x forward PE, about 1.64x price to book, and roughly 10x trailing free cash flow per share near $1.02 | StockAnalysis CNH statistics and financials pages | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and price target | Buy consensus from 19 analysts with an average price target of $13.28, a range of $10 to $20.50, and recent targets including $16 from Northland and Oppenheimer and $12 from Barclays and BofA | StockAnalysis CNH forecast page | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $10.58, 200-day near $10.61, RSI near the low 40s, 20-day average volume near 11 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and Barchart technical pages for CNH | August 2, 2026 |
This CNH AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell CNH Industrial N.V. stock, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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