CNH Industrial N.V. research snapshot
CNH AI stock analysis currently reads CNH Industrial N.V. as a major agriculture and construction equipment maker with Case IH, New Holland, CASE Construction brands, dealer and parts networks, precision agriculture tools, and captive finance. Business quality is real, but the July 10, 2026 data cutoff shows the company still in an equipment demand trough: FY2025 revenue fell 9% to $18.10 billion, net income fell to $505 million, and 2026 adjusted EPS guidance is only $0.35 to $0.45. At $10.45, CNH traded near 32.66x TTM EPS of about $0.32, 1.67x book value, and roughly 25x industrial free cash flow per share. The CNH AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a precise price prediction: upside needs an agriculture recovery, margin repair, and inventory discipline, while downside remains if the trough lasts longer, finance credit weakens, or the multiple compresses on depressed earnings.
Current price
$10.45
Market cap
$12.96 billion verified market cap
AI score
49 / 100
Rating
Solid agriculture and construction equipment franchise in an industry trough with elevated trough multiples
Trend status
Short-term weak to neutral: price below the 50-day and 200-day averages after a roughly 23% one-year decline
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 10, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CNH sells mission-critical tractors, combines, construction machines, parts, services, precision tools, and equipment financing to farmers and builders who need uptime and productivity. | High |
| Moat | Brand portfolio, dealer density, parts availability, installed base, financing relationships, and scale create a meaningful moat, though it is generally narrower than Deere in premium large agriculture. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Gerrit Marx, in the role since July 2024, has focused on inventory reduction, quality, operational excellence, and a cautious 2026 production plan. Capital allocation will be tested through the trough. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 consolidated revenue fell 9% to $18.10 billion and net income fell to $505 million from $1.259 billion. Industrial free cash flow improved to $513 million, but Q1 2026 net income was only $10 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $10.45, CNH screens rich on trough earnings at about 32.66x TTM EPS and roughly 25x industrial free cash flow per share, while book value near $6.27 implies about 1.67x PB. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 50-day and 200-day averages near the mid-$10s, with RSI in the mid-40s and still limited evidence of a durable trend reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are prolonged ag weakness, construction softness, dealer inventory, tariffs, used equipment values, financial services credit, high gross leverage, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because company releases and third-party data agree. Forecast confidence is lower because cycle timing, margins, and sentiment remain unstable. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CNH is a legitimate cycle franchise, but the current price offers only limited margin of safety unless earnings recover faster than the soft 2026 guidance implies. | Medium-low |
CNH AI stock forecast
The CNH AI stock forecast uses the $10.45 price reference, FY2025 diluted EPS of $0.41, and a three-year scenario model audited with financial_rigor.py. The model produced a bullish area near $12.9, a base area near $6.5, and a bearish area near $2.2 before dividends. The wide range reflects trough-cycle uncertainty rather than a single target price.
$12.00 to $14.00
More likely if agriculture demand bottoms in 2026 and recovers into 2027, construction stays stable, adjusted EPS moves back toward the mid-$0.80s, industrial free cash flow expands, and investors pay around 15x recovered earnings.
$5.50 to $7.50
More likely if EPS compounds only around 10% from the $0.41 trough base, margins stay compressed, and the market values CNH closer to a low-teens cyclical industrial multiple.
$1.80 to $2.80
More likely if farm income stays weak, production cuts fail to protect margins, financial services credit costs rise, free cash flow stalls, and investors re-rate CNH toward a high-single-digit earnings multiple.
CNH AI technical analysis
CNH AI technical analysis is weak to neutral as of the July 10, 2026 cutoff. Market data around the reference close of $10.45 showed a 50-day moving average near $10.52 to $10.71, a 200-day moving average near $10.54 to $10.64, RSI near the mid-40s, and 20-day average volume near 10 to 13 million shares. Price remains below both major averages after roughly a 23% one-year decline, so the useful framework is to separate a reclaim of the $10.70 to $11.00 band from a deeper reset toward the $9.00 to $9.50 area.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $10.45 | Current market-data reference used for valuation and market-cap checks at the July 10, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Immediate support | $10.00 to $10.30 | This zone brackets the recent trading range and is the first area buyers need to defend after the pullback below the moving averages. |
| Moving-average resistance | $10.50 to $10.70 | This band overlaps common 50-day and 200-day references and acts as first resistance while price remains below both averages. |
| Deeper support | $9.00 to $9.50 | A break through the low-$10s would open a larger trend reset toward the next demand zone near the prior lower base. |
| Near resistance | $10.90 to $11.20 | A sustained reclaim of the low-$11s would improve short-term trend quality after the extended one-year decline. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $10.52 to $10.71, 200-day near $10.54 to $10.64 | Different technical vendors show slightly different averages, so the page treats them as a range rather than a single exact trigger. |
| Momentum | RSI near the mid-40s across common chart vendors | Momentum is not oversold enough to force a bounce and not strong enough to confirm a new uptrend. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 10 to 13 million shares | Volume confirmation matters because CNH is liquid and can move quickly around inventory, guidance, and ag-cycle headlines. |
| Volatility | Watch 2026 demand guidance, dealer inventory, tariffs, and finance credit | The next earnings update can change the trend quickly because management still frames 2026 as a trough year ahead of a hoped-for 2027 recovery. |
| Invalidation | Close below $10.00, then below $9.00 for the larger setup | A break below $10 weakens the short-term base. A break near $9 would challenge any recovery thesis based only on mean reversion. |
CNH AI trading strategy
The CNH AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects trend behavior with agriculture demand, dealer inventory, construction activity, used equipment values, tariffs, financial services credit quality, free cash flow, and valuation discipline.
Watch for CNH to reclaim the $10.70 to $11.20 resistance band while results show stable or better order quality, lower dealer inventory risk, and no deterioration in financial services credit.
A failed reclaim followed by a close below $10.00 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management points to weaker agriculture demand or higher cost and tariff pressure.
If CNH pulls back toward the $5.50 to $7.50 base-case zone without a collapse in industrial free cash flow, dealer health, or product competitiveness, compare the lower price with long-term franchise quality versus Deere and construction peers.
Do not treat a lower price as automatically attractive if used equipment values weaken, credit losses rise, or production discipline fails to protect cash flow.
Track Agriculture net sales and adjusted EBIT margin, Construction net sales and margin, industrial free cash flow, dealer inventory, tariff costs, financial services delinquency trends, adjusted EPS, buybacks, and dividend coverage.
Position sizing should reflect that CNH is a cyclical equipment franchise with finance leverage, not a guaranteed compounding stock at any price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CNH because farmers and construction customers need reliable iron, parts, service, financing, and increasingly connected machines that help protect uptime and productivity through seasonal field and jobsite work.
The moat is strongest in multi-brand coverage, dealer and parts density, installed base, captive finance relationships, and scale in global agriculture and construction equipment. It narrows when farm income falls, dealers de-stock, and buyers delay replacement cycles.
The thesis fails if the agriculture downturn lasts longer than expected, construction softens, dealer inventories rebuild, tariffs erode margins, financial services credit losses rise, free cash flow stalls, or the stock multiple compresses before earnings recover.
Gerrit Marx has emphasized production discipline, quality, inventory reduction, and technology integration since becoming CEO in July 2024. The management test is whether CNH can protect the balance sheet and franchise through the trough without overreaching on capital returns.
CNH benefits from long-run food productivity needs, precision agriculture, infrastructure and construction activity, and lifecycle parts and service revenue. The offset is exposure to crop prices, farmer income, interest rates, tariffs, dealer channels, and equipment financing cycles.
At $10.45, the market is paying a high multiple on trough earnings for a hoped-for recovery into 2027. Margin of safety improves if the stock resets toward the base-case range or if EPS and free cash flow recover strongly enough to absorb the current multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNH quote reference | $10.45 close reference on July 10, 2026 | Market quotes from CNN Markets and Markets Insider CNH pages | July 10, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $12.96 billion reported and calculated from $10.45 x 1.24 billion shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py with Yahoo Finance and CompaniesMarketCap share counts | July 10, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | About 1.24 billion shares outstanding across Yahoo Finance, CompaniesMarketCap, and Macrotrends | Yahoo Finance key statistics and CompaniesMarketCap shares outstanding | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $18.10 billion consolidated revenues and $505 million net income; diluted EPS $0.41; adjusted diluted EPS $0.55 | CNH Industrial FY2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results release | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue cross-check | $18.1 billion annual revenue, matching company release and Simply Wall St / Macrotrends style summaries within 1% | Simply Wall St CNH past earnings summary | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2025 industrial free cash flow | Industrial free cash flow $513 million versus negative $401 million in 2024; operating cash flow $2.538 billion | CNH Industrial FY2025 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $3.8 billion consolidated revenues, $10 million net income, $0.01 diluted EPS, and industrial free cash flow absorption of $589 million | CNH Industrial Q1 2026 results release | July 10, 2026 |
| FY2026 company outlook | Agriculture net sales down 5% to flat; construction about flat; industrial free cash flow $150 million to $350 million; adjusted diluted EPS $0.35 to $0.45 | CNH Industrial Q1 2026 results release guidance reaffirmation | July 10, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and book value | About $1.35 billion total cash, $26.26 billion total debt, book value per share about $6.27, and equity about $7.87 billion on recent market-data snapshots | Yahoo Finance CNH key statistics and StockAnalysis CNH statistics | July 10, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | About 32.66x TTM PE on $0.32 EPS, 25.49x on FY2025 $0.41 EPS, 1.67x PB, and roughly 25x industrial free cash flow per share near $0.41 | Pineify financial_rigor.py with Yahoo Finance and Macrotrends PE context | July 10, 2026 |
| Technical references | 50-day moving average near $10.52 to $10.71, 200-day near $10.54 to $10.64, RSI mid-40s, 20-day average volume near 10 to 13 million shares | StockAnalysis, Investing.com, Chartmill, and Barchart technical pages for CNH | July 10, 2026 |
This CNH AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell CNH Industrial N.V. stock, or a promise of future performance. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data at the stated cutoff date and may be wrong.
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