Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. research snapshot
CLF AI stock analysis currently describes Cleveland-Cliffs as the largest flat-rolled steel producer in North America with vertical integration from iron ore mining to finished steel, but the company faces meaningful financial pressure from negative earnings, high debt, and declining revenue. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest regular NYSE close was $9.40 on July 10 and the matching market-cap calculation was $5.36 billion. The CLF AI stock forecast is scenario-based because steel prices, automotive demand, trade policy, debt service costs, and operational execution can materially change outcomes. This information is for research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$9.40
Market cap
$5.36 billion verified market cap
AI score
38 / 100
Rating
Vertically integrated steel producer with scale advantages but significant debt, negative earnings, and cyclical exposure limiting the investment case
Trend status
Near-term price reference is bearish after a 24% one-month decline, trading near the lower end of the 52-week range with deteriorating fundamentals
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CLF sells flat-rolled steel, iron ore pellets, and stamped components to automotive, infrastructure, manufacturing, and distributor customers. Its earnings are tied to steel prices, capacity utilization, and end-market demand rather than recurring or subscription revenue. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from North American scale in flat-rolled steel, vertical integration into iron ore, and long-standing customer relationships. It does not protect CLF from steel price cycles, import competition, or high fixed costs during downturns. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Lourenco Goncalves, in charge since 2014, drove industry consolidation through AK Steel and ArcelorMittal USA acquisitions. The strategic bet on vertical integration and scale is now being tested by high debt service costs and negative operating cash flow. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $18.61 billion, down 3% from FY2024 and 19% from the FY2022 peak of $22.99 billion. Net income was -$1.48 billion, swinging from +$1.34 billion in FY2022. Operating cash flow was -$462 million, a significant deterioration from +$2.42 billion in FY2022. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 10 close of $9.40, CLF trades at 0.29x sales, 0.89x book value, and a forward P/E of 29.67x based on estimated earnings recovery. The low P/B and P/S multiples reflect the market pricing in continued financial stress. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is in a clear downtrend, down 24% in one month and 29% YTD. The July 10 close of $9.40 is near the low end of the recent range. Momentum is negative and volume remains elevated. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. Risks include high debt leverage ($13.08B enterprise value vs $5.36B market cap), negative earnings and cash flow, steel price cyclicality, automotive demand exposure, import competition, and execution risk on cost reduction initiatives. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported financial data is well-sourced and cross-verified. Forward analysis is less certain because steel markets, trade policy, and debt dynamics can shift outcomes rapidly. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | CLF lacks the financial cushion and earnings stability that underpin higher-certainty investment cases. A satisfactory outcome requires steel price recovery, cost improvement, and successful debt management. | Low |
CLF AI stock forecast
The CLF AI stock forecast uses the $9.40 July 10, 2026 close and a three-year scenario model with FY2025 GAAP EPS of -$2.91. The mechanical scenario outputs are about $17.00 in a bullish case, $9.50 in a base case, and $4.00 in a bearish case before any potential bankruptcy discount. These are scenario illustrations, not price promises.
$14 to $20 before dilution risk
More likely if steel prices recover, automotive demand strengthens, trade tariffs remain supportive, cost reduction initiatives succeed, and debt is meaningfully reduced, allowing CLF to return to profitability and earn a mid-teens earnings multiple.
$8 to $12 before dilution risk
More likely if steel prices remain near current levels, CLF stabilizes operations but generates only marginal or inconsistent profitability, and the market values it near book value with a low single-digit earnings multiple due to ongoing leverage concerns.
$3 to $6
More likely if steel prices weaken further, debt service consumes operating cash flow, asset impairments or covenant pressure emerges, and the market discounts a distressed valuation with potential equity dilution or restructuring.
CLF AI technical analysis
CLF AI technical analysis uses the latest regular-session NYSE reference available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff: a $9.40 close on July 10. The stock is in a confirmed downtrend with lower highs and lower lows. The chart framework is deliberately limited because this page does not substitute a current chart feed for a trading decision. Use the latest close, volume, recent session range, moving averages, and steel price confirmation together. Technical levels are reference zones, not predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $9.40 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis listed this NYSE regular-session close. It is the reference used in the valuation and scenario table. |
| Near support | 52-week low area near $7.73 | The March 2026 low is the clearest downside reference. A break below this level would mark a new low and require fundamental reassessment. |
| Near resistance | Recent breakdown area near $11-$12 | The stock broke below this zone in June 2026. A reclaim would be the first sign of trend stabilization. |
| Moving averages | Check current 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages | No static moving-average number is presented without a same-day chart calculation. All major averages are likely in a bearish alignment. |
| Momentum | Use RSI and price confirmation together | RSI is likely oversold or approaching oversold. An oversold reading alone does not signal a reversal in a strong downtrend. |
| Volume | Confirm breakdowns with expanding volume | Elevated volume on down days confirms distribution. Watch for volume contraction as a potential stabilization signal. |
| Volatility | Track hot-rolled coil steel prices and automotive demand | Steel price announcements, earnings reports, trade policy changes, and debt-focused news can quickly reset the trading range. |
| Invalidation | Failure to hold the 52-week low, then a close below that area | This is a framework condition. Refresh the live chart and fundamental inputs before defining a stop or taking risk. |
CLF AI trading strategy
The CLF AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with hot-rolled coil steel prices, automotive production data, trade policy, debt metrics, cost reduction progress, and earnings trajectory.
A downtrend is in place. A trend-following approach would only consider a position after a confirmed base-building pattern, volume confirmation, and improving steel price or earnings fundamentals.
Short-term bounces in a downtrend are unreliable. Any position requires a tight invalidation level and acceptance that the trend may continue lower.
If CLF retraces to the 52-week low area while steel prices and demand remain stable, assess whether valuation support (P/B below 0.9x) is sufficient to justify a tactical position with a defined catalyst.
Avoid catching a falling knife. A break below the 52-week low invalidates the value thesis and requires immediate reassessment.
Track hot-rolled coil steel prices, automotive production, capacity utilization, revenue trend, gross margin, operating cash flow, total debt, EBITDA, and any debt refinancing or equity issuance announcements.
Position sizing should reflect elevated bankruptcy and dilution risk. CLF is not suitable for capital-preservation-focused portfolios.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CLF for domestically produced flat-rolled steel and iron ore products that automotive, infrastructure, and manufacturing supply chains need. The company combines mining, steelmaking, finishing, stamping, and tubing under one roof.
CLF has the largest flat-rolled steel production capacity in North America and integrated iron ore supply. The scale advantage lowers unit costs but does not eliminate cyclical earnings risk or protect against import pressure and technology shifts.
The thesis can fail through sustained low steel prices, inability to service $13 billion in enterprise value debt, negative free cash flow consuming cash reserves, automotive demand decline, import surge, cost inflation, or equity dilution.
Management must navigate a challenging period of negative earnings, negative operating cash flow, and high debt. The key test is whether cost actions, commercial strategy, and balance sheet management can stabilize the business before financial pressure forces restructuring.
Steel is a mature industry in North America with cyclical demand tied to automotive, construction, and infrastructure. Tariffs provide some domestic pricing support, but long-term demand growth is modest and competition from minimills (Nucor, Steel Dynamics) is intense.
At $9.40, the market prices CLF at 0.89x book value and 0.29x sales, reflecting financial distress pricing. Margin of safety improves only if steel prices stabilize and CLF can generate positive free cash flow. Below book value alone is not sufficient.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYSE price and market-cap verification | $9.40 July 10 close x 570.4 million shares = $5.362 billion, versus $5.362 billion reported, a 0.00% variance | Barchart CLF shares outstanding and market cap | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $18.61 billion, with Barchart reporting $18.61B and Yahoo Finance reporting ~$18.9B (0.77% variance, within tolerance) | Barchart CLF income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | -$1.478 billion GAAP net income. Barchart reports -$1.478B and Yahoo reports -$1.423B (1.9% variance due to classification differences) | Barchart CLF income statement | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating cash flow | -$462 million, a sharp decline from +$2.42 billion in FY2022 | Barchart CLF financial summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value and debt | $13.08 billion enterprise value versus $5.36 billion market cap. Total liabilities of $13.69 billion as of December 2025. | Yahoo Finance CLF key statistics and Barchart balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings and forward estimates | Q1 2026 EPS was -$0.40, compared to -$0.50 in the prior year quarter. Analysts estimate Q2 2026 EPS of -$0.18, a 64% year-over-year improvement. | Barchart CLF earnings estimates | July 12, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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