Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. research snapshot
CLF AI stock analysis at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff describes Cleveland-Cliffs as a business in a visible earnings inflection rather than the distress state seen in early July. The July 23 Q2 2026 report delivered the first positive quarterly free cash flow in two years, roughly tripled adjusted EBITDA to $286 million, and guided third-quarter adjusted EBITDA near $575 million. At the July 31 close of $11.52, market cap was about $6.57 billion and the AI score is 52 out of 100, reflecting improving momentum offset by $7.7 billion of debt, negative trailing earnings, and steel price risk. The CLF AI stock forecast is scenario-based because steel prices, USW negotiations, asset sales, and execution decide the path. This information is for research only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$11.52 (Jul 31, 2026 close)
Market cap
$6.57 billion cross-verified
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
Vertically integrated steel producer in a visible earnings inflection, with positive Q2 2026 free cash flow and strong Q3 guidance offset by high debt, negative trailing earnings, and steel price risk
Trend status
The downtrend from early July broke after Q2 results. CLF gained about 22.7% in the past month and reclaimed its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 57
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CLF runs the largest flat-rolled steel operation in North America with integrated mining, steelmaking, finishing, and stamping. Revenue is cyclical and tied to steel prices and automotive demand rather than recurring or subscription income. | High |
| Moat | Scale, vertical integration into iron ore, and multi-year relationships with GM, Toyota, and other automakers support the moat. Section 232 trade enforcement and the difficulty of qualifying new automotive suppliers add durability, but the moat does not remove price-cycle risk. | Medium |
| Management | Q2 2026 delivered positive free cash flow, a roughly tripled adjusted EBITDA quarter, and a clear path to below 2.5x leverage within about 12 months. The CFO was promoted to President, starting an orderly leadership transition. Past acquisition-driven leverage remains part of the record. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue rose to $5.23 billion in Q2 2026 and adjusted EBITDA reached $286 million, the best quarter in two years, with a $575 million Q3 guide. Trailing twelve months still show a $876 million net loss and negative trailing free cash flow of $857 million. | High |
| Valuation | At the July 31 close of $11.52, CLF trades at 1.17x book value and 0.34x sales with a forward P/E near 17x on adjusted estimates. The market prices in a recovery, but not a strong one. | Medium |
| Technical trend | CLF reclaimed its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a 22.7% one-month gain, with RSI near 57. The prior downtrend has broken and the setup is now neutral to positive. | Medium |
| Risk level | Elevated. Total debt of $7.7 billion, negative trailing free cash flow, short interest near 14.7% of shares, USW labor negotiations, and dependence on steel prices keep risk high even after the Q2 improvement. | High |
| AI confidence | Reported Q2 2026 figures, price, market cap, and balance sheet data are cross-verified across two sources. Forward scenarios depend on steel prices and execution, which can change quickly. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The earnings inflection is real, but CLF must still prove it can convert higher EBITDA into sustained free cash flow and debt reduction. Certainty is improving but remains medium-low. | Medium-low |
CLF AI stock forecast
The CLF AI stock forecast uses the $11.52 July 31, 2026 close, the $286 million Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA, the near $575 million Q3 guide, and analyst estimates near break-even adjusted EPS for 2026 and positive adjusted EPS for 2027. The scenario ranges below are illustrations, not price promises. Which case unfolds depends on steel prices, guidance delivery, USW talks, asset sales, and the speed of deleveraging.
$14 to $18
More likely if hot-rolled coil prices hold near or above $1,100, fixed-price contract resets add roughly $500 million of EBITDA, asset sales close on time, leverage falls below 2.5x, and FY2027 EPS turns clearly positive, letting the market assign a higher multiple.
$10 to $13
More likely if steel prices soften but the Q3 and Q4 guidance is broadly met, earnings turn only modestly positive, and the stock trades around book value with a Hold-level multiple.
$7 to $9
More likely if steel prices fall sharply, the Q3 guidance is missed, a USW strike disrupts operations, Canadian or import pressure builds, or dilution and a slower deleveraging path weigh on the stock.
CLF AI technical analysis
CLF AI technical analysis uses the latest regular-session NYSE reference available at the August 3, 2026 cutoff: a $11.52 close on July 31. The stock broke its downtrend after the Q2 report and reclaimed the 50-day moving average at $11.38 and the 200-day at $11.47. The chart framework is deliberately limited because this page does not substitute a current chart feed for a trading decision. Use the latest close, volume, moving averages, RSI, and steel price confirmation together. Technical levels are reference zones, not predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $11.52 on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance both listed this NYSE regular-session close. It is the reference used in the valuation and scenario table. |
| First support | $11.10 to $11.20 zone | The July 24 post-earnings rally base. A pullback that holds here keeps the recovery structure intact. |
| Deeper support | $9.40 area | The July 10 pre-earnings close. A sustained break below this zone would question the earnings-driven floor and shift the setup back to downtrend risk. |
| Major support | $7.73, the 52-week low | The March 2026 low is the final downside reference. A break below it would mark a new low and require a full fundamental reassessment. |
| Resistance | $11.91 then $12.85 | The July 31 intraday high is the near resistance, with the late-May high near $12.85 above it. A close above these levels extends the recovery. |
| Moving averages | 50-day at $11.38, 200-day at $11.47 | Price reclaimed both in late July. Holding above them is the technical confirmation of the trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI near 57 | Neutral to positive and not overbought, which leaves room for continuation but does not confirm it on its own. |
| Volume | Average volume near 27 million shares over 20 days | Elevated volume accompanied the earnings rally. Confirm any breakout or breakdown with volume rather than a quiet move. |
| Volatility | Beta near 2.1 | Swing risk is high. HRC steel prices, quarterly results, trade policy news, and labor talks can quickly reset the range. |
| Invalidation | A close below the $9.40 to $10 support zone | This is a framework condition. Refresh the live chart and fundamental inputs before defining a stop or taking risk. |
CLF AI trading strategy
The CLF AI trading strategy is a general monitoring framework, not personalized investment advice. It combines price structure with hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil steel prices, quarterly guidance delivery, free cash flow, total debt, the below 2.5x leverage target, USW negotiations, asset sales, and earnings trajectory.
The prior downtrend broke with the July earnings rally. A trend-following approach would wait for a pullback to hold the 50-day average or the $11 support zone, then confirm with a fresh breakout above $11.91 or $12.85 before adding risk.
Do not chase a 22% monthly move at resistance. A close back below the 50-day average questions the new trend and requires a reduced position.
If CLF pulls back toward the $10 to $11 zone while the Q3 guidance remains intact, assess whether the recovery thesis is being retested near book value before considering a tactical long.
A close below $9.40 removes the earnings-driven floor and turns the setup back into a falling knife. Reassess immediately and avoid averaging down.
Track HRC and cold-rolled coil prices, quarterly shipments and average selling price, adjusted EBITDA versus the $575 million Q3 guide, free cash flow, total debt, the below 2.5x leverage target, USW talks, asset sale proceeds, and any equity issuance.
Size positions for a high-beta cyclical with meaningful debt. CLF remains unsuited to capital-preservation-focused portfolios until leverage falls materially.
Investment research summary
Customers pay CLF for domestically made flat-rolled steel, iron ore, and stamped components that automakers, infrastructure, and manufacturers depend on. Vertical integration from mines to finished steel keeps the supply chain in-house.
North America's largest flat-rolled steel footprint, integrated iron ore, and multi-year automotive relationships create a moat now reinforced by Section 232 trade enforcement and automotive reshoring. The moat is cyclical rather than brand-based.
The recovery thesis can fail if steel prices fall, the $575 million Q3 guide is missed, USW negotiations break down, Canadian or import competition weakens pricing, asset sales stall, or debt reduction falls behind the stated 12-month target.
Management executed a visible turnaround in Q2 2026 and published a concrete path to below 2.5x leverage within about 12 months. The CFO promotion to President starts an orderly transition, reducing key-person dependence on the CEO.
Steel is mature in North America, but Section 232 enforcement, automotive reshoring, grid investment, and shipbuilding are shifting demand toward domestic integrated producers. These are structural tailwinds for the region, not high-growth themes.
At $11.52, the market pays 1.17x book value and 0.34x sales. Margin of safety is moderate: it assumes the Q3 and Q4 recovery is delivered, but the stock is no longer priced for the distress level seen at the July low.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Price and market-cap cross-check | $11.52 July 31 close x 570.54 million shares = $6.573 billion, matching the $6.57 billion reported by both StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance (0.0% variance) | StockAnalysis CLF overview and Yahoo Finance CLF | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $5.226 billion (+5.9% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $286 million, GAAP net loss to common of $145 million, diluted EPS loss of $0.25, and positive free cash flow of $73 million | StockAnalysis CLF income statement (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Adjusted EBITDA guide of approximately $575 million, shipments above 4.3 million tons, average selling price up $55 per ton, and unit costs down $10 per ton, with 2H 2026 expected substantially better than 1H 2026 | Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| Leadership transition | CFO Celso Goncalves was promoted to President and appointed to the Board of Directors on July 23, 2026, described by the CEO as the early stage of an orderly leadership transition | Business Wire press release via StockAnalysis news | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 full-year results | Revenue $18.61 billion, net loss of $1.478 billion, GAAP EPS loss of $2.91, operating cash flow negative $462 million, and free cash flow negative $1.02 billion | StockAnalysis CLF financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Trailing financial position | TTM revenue $19.20 billion, TTM net loss of $876 million, TTM free cash flow negative $857 million, total debt $7.72 billion, cash $70 million, net debt $7.65 billion, and equity of $5.82 billion | StockAnalysis CLF statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and analyst view | Price/book 1.17, price/sales 0.34, forward P/E about 17x on adjusted estimates. Consensus Hold from 13 analysts with an average 12-month target of $11.75 (range $10 to $15) | StockAnalysis CLF statistics and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical references | 52-week range $7.73 to $16.70, 50-day moving average $11.38, 200-day moving average $11.47, RSI 57.54, and beta 2.10, with short interest near 14.65% of shares outstanding | StockAnalysis CLF statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario illustrations based on available data and may be wrong. Verify primary sources and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
