Cipher Digital Inc. research snapshot
CIFR AI stock analysis currently reads Cipher Digital as a power and data center development company moving from bitcoin mining toward high-performance computing infrastructure. The company has announced 600 MW of contracted capacity across AWS and Fluidstack with Google support, while a third hyperscale lease was signed in Q1 2026. That future contract value is not the same as recognized revenue: Q1 2026 revenue was $34.8 million, all from bitcoin mining, and the company reported a $114.3 million net loss. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest NASDAQ close was $22.11 and the calculated market capitalization was about $9.04 billion. The CIFR AI stock forecast below uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction. This page is for informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$22.11 (July 10 close)
Market cap
About $9.04 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
AI and HPC data center pivot with major contracted capacity, high leverage, and material execution risk
Trend status
Neutral and highly volatile: below the 50-day average, above the 200-day average, with RSI near 46
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | A potentially valuable power and data center platform, but the HPC business has not yet produced reported lease revenue and the legacy mining business remains loss-making. | Medium |
| Moat | Power access, sites, interconnection work, construction know-how, and tenant relationships can matter; brand, switching costs, and network effects are not yet proven. | Medium-low |
| Management | Management secured large leases, project financing, and a third hyperscale campus commitment, but it must now prove delivery, cost control, and per-share value creation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $223.9 million, but net loss widened to $822.2 million and Q1 2026 net loss was $114.3 million while construction spending and debt increased. | High |
| Valuation | At $22.11, the stock traded at about 43.1x trailing sales and 62.3x EV to sales; P/E and P/FCF are not meaningful while GAAP earnings and free cash flow are negative. | High |
| Technical trend | The price is below the 50-day average of $22.79 but above the 200-day average of $18.17, with RSI near 46 and very high average volume. | High |
| Risk level | Very high: project delivery, debt service, customer concentration, power availability, bitcoin economics, dilution, and valuation compression can all move the equity materially. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical data and announced lease terms are well documented; forward earnings require assumptions about rent commencement, construction, costs, and financing. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. The upside case is substantial, but the current quote already discounts a successful transition before lease revenue is visible in financial statements. | Medium-low |
CIFR AI stock forecast
The CIFR AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario framework, not a guaranteed target. Because trailing GAAP EPS is negative, the model uses StockAnalysis FY2027 adjusted EPS of $0.48 as a forward starting point. With 30%, 15%, and negative 20% annual EPS paths and 40x, 30x, and 15x exit multiples, financial_rigor.py produced reference values of about $42.2, $21.9, and $3.7. These inputs are illustrative and do not turn analyst estimates into facts.
$34 to $50
More likely if Barber Lake and Black Pearl reach delivery milestones, AWS and Fluidstack rent begins close to schedule, the third campus is financed without heavy dilution, tenant demand stays strong, and debt remains serviceable as contracted NOI ramps.
$18 to $30
More likely if the two 300 MW campuses are delivered in stages, lease revenue begins but ramps gradually, the company raises additional equity or debt, bitcoin remains a secondary source of liquidity, and investors assign a high but lower growth multiple.
$3 to $10
More likely if construction or energization slips, lease milestones are renegotiated, customer concentration or AI demand weakens, financing costs rise, dilution accelerates, or bitcoin losses and debt service consume available liquidity.
CIFR AI technical analysis
CIFR AI technical analysis is neutral but unusually volatile at the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The July 10 close was $22.11, below the 50-day moving average of $22.79 and above the 200-day average of $18.17. RSI was 46.05, average 20-day volume was about 24.8 million shares, and five-year beta was 3.20. These are reference zones, not trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.11 | StockAnalysis reported the July 10, 2026 close. Price data should be refreshed before using any level. |
| Near support | $20 to $21 | The July 2 close was $20.04 and the July 7 low was $19.51. A hold in this zone would preserve a short-term base attempt. |
| Breakdown support | $18 to $19 | This zone surrounds the 200-day average near $18.17 and the late-May price area. A sustained close below it weakens the intermediate trend. |
| Near resistance | $23.50 to $24.10 | The July 9 high was $24.09. A move through this area would need volume and a catalyst from project or lease execution. |
| Higher resistance | $26 to $28 | This zone contains several June closes and highs. It is a reference area for a recovery, not a target. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $22.79; 200-day $18.17 | Price was below the shorter average and above the longer average at the cutoff, leaving the trend mixed. |
| Momentum | RSI 46.05, neutral | The RSI reading was below 50 and far from a reliable overbought or oversold signal. It does not forecast the next move. |
| Volume and volatility | 24.8 million average shares; beta 3.20 | The high volume and beta reflect active trading and large market sensitivity. Position sizing matters more than a single indicator. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $18 | A sustained break below the 200-day average would weaken the current intermediate structure and require a fresh review of project funding and lease timing. |
CIFR AI trading strategy
The CIFR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-beta data center transition. It is not personal advice. Any use of these ideas should include fresh market data, the next filing, project milestone checks, debt and dilution review, and a predefined invalidation level.
Watch whether CIFR reclaims $22.79 and then clears $23.50 to $24.10 with sustained volume. Confirm any breakout with Barber Lake and Black Pearl delivery updates, rent commencement evidence, financing terms, and tenant disclosures.
A failed move back above the 50-day average or a decisive close below $20 weakens the short-term setup. A sustained close below $18 invalidates the current intermediate trend reference.
If CIFR approaches $18 to $21, compare the price with updated cash, debt, restricted cash, project spending, lease milestones, and dilution before treating the decline as a valuation reset.
Do not average down solely because the stock is below a recent high. Reduce confidence if project costs rise, lease dates slip, or the company funds the gap with large equity issuance.
Track lease commencement and rent recognition, construction progress, capital expenditure, restricted cash, debt maturities, interest expense, share count, bitcoin inventory, operating hashrate, and the third campus lease terms.
Lower confidence if contracted capacity remains outside reported revenue, if debt grows faster than project cash flow, or if customer concentration and power obligations increase without matching protections.
Investment research summary
Cipher is trying to turn access to power, land, interconnection, and construction capability into long-duration HPC data center leases. Customers pay for delivered capacity, power, operations, and related services. The reported business was still bitcoin mining at March 31, 2026: Q1 revenue was $34.8 million and no HPC lease revenue had been recognized.
The potential moat is physical and financial rather than consumer-facing: secured sites, power relationships, interconnection deposits, a construction team, and signed hyperscaler or hyperscaler-backed leases. AWS and Fluidstack contracts provide credibility, while Google backstops certain Fluidstack obligations. The moat is not proven until Cipher delivers reliable capacity at acceptable cost and earns repeat tenant trust.
The thesis fails if Barber Lake or Black Pearl misses delivery milestones, power or equipment costs exceed the financing plan, lease revenue is delayed, a tenant renegotiates, AI infrastructure demand cools, or debt and dilution absorb most of the project value. The legacy mining operation adds bitcoin price, network difficulty, power price, and asset impairment risk.
CEO Tyler Page and the leadership team rebranded the company, divested three 49% mining joint ventures, secured about $3.73 billion of high-yield project financing, signed AWS and Fluidstack leases, and announced a third hyperscale lease. These are meaningful capital allocation and strategic decisions. The next test is operational: complete the campuses, protect balance-sheet flexibility, and grow value per share rather than only expanding total capacity.
AI and high-performance computing create a long-term need for power-dense data center capacity, and Cipher lists a multi-gigawatt development pipeline. This is a major infrastructure trend, but it is not automatically a durable corporate moat. Technology changes, grid constraints, tenant capex budgets, financing costs, and data center oversupply can change returns quickly.
The audited market cap check was about $9.04 billion at $22.11. StockAnalysis reported trailing sales of $209.82 million, net cash of negative $4.03 billion, and no meaningful P/E or P/FCF because losses and free cash flow were negative. The quote therefore values future HPC execution, not current earnings. A margin of safety requires evidence that lease cash flows can start on time and cover the large debt and construction obligations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR closing price | $22.11 on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $9.04 billion and 409.05 million shares; $22.11 x 409.05 million produced a 0.05% difference from the reported market cap | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $223.94 million, compared with $151.27 million in 2024 and $126.84 million in 2023; the business was bitcoin mining revenue | Cipher Digital 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $822.24 million GAAP net loss, or $2.15 diluted loss per share; the main non-recurring and fair-value items make adjusted figures different | Cipher Digital 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $34.84 million revenue, $114.32 million net loss, and $91.53 million operating cash flow for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 | Cipher Digital Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and equity | $715.2 million cash, $4.73 billion long-term and short-term borrowings, $714.2 million stockholders equity, and $2.65 billion working capital at March 31, 2026 | Cipher Digital Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Contracted HPC capacity | 600 gross MW across a 15-year AWS lease and a 10-year Fluidstack lease supported by Google, with a third hyperscale campus lease announced in Q1 2026 | Cipher Digital FY2025 and Q1 2026 business updates | July 12, 2026 |
| Lease revenue status | The AWS, Fluidstack, and third-campus leases had not commenced and no lease revenue had been recognized as of March 31, 2026 | Cipher Digital Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $22.79, 200-day moving average $18.17, RSI 46.05, average 20-day volume 24.78 million shares, and beta 3.20 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Forward estimate and analyst range | StockAnalysis showed FY2027 adjusted EPS of $0.48 and a one-year analyst price range of $23 to $69 as of its June 25, 2026 update; estimates can change materially | StockAnalysis forecast | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $42.2, base $21.9, bearish $3.7 using $0.48 forward adjusted EPS, three years, growth rates of 30%, 15%, and -20%, and target multiples of 40x, 30x, and 15x | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate | July 12, 2026 |
This CIFR AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available data and can be wrong. Verify current filings, market prices, lease milestones, financing terms, and your own circumstances before making any investment decision.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
