Cipher Digital Inc. research snapshot
CIFR AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Cipher Digital as a power and data center development company that has contracted about 600 gross MW of HPC capacity while its financial statements still show only bitcoin mining revenue. The company signed a third AI campus lease with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant in the first quarter of 2026, closed a $200 million revolving credit facility in March 2026, and priced $810 million of senior secured notes in June 2026 for the Stingray facility in Andrews, Texas. Contracted capacity is not recognized revenue: Q1 2026 revenue was $34.84 million, all from bitcoin mining, the net loss was $114.32 million, and adjusted EBITDA was negative $48.22 million. At the July 31, 2026 close of $22.32, the calculated market capitalization was about $9.13 billion, verified as $22.32 times 409.05 million shares against the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. The Q2 2026 business update is scheduled for August 4, 2026. The CIFR AI stock forecast below uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction. This page is for informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$22.32 (July 31 close)
Market cap
About $9.13 billion
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
High-risk HPC data center buildout with contracted capacity, heavy leverage, and no lease revenue yet
Trend status
Neutral and extremely volatile: below the 50-day average, above the 200-day average, with RSI near 51
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | A potentially valuable power and data center platform with about 600 gross MW contracted across AWS and Fluidstack, but the HPC business has not yet produced reported lease revenue and the legacy mining business remains loss-making. | Medium |
| Moat | Power access, sites, interconnection work, construction know-how, and tenant relationships can matter; brand, switching costs, and network effects are not yet proven. | Medium-low |
| Management | Management secured three campus leases, a $200 million revolver, about $5.2 billion of project debt, an $810 million notes offering, and kept Barber Lake and Black Pearl on schedule, but it must now prove delivery, cost control, and per-share value creation. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $223.94 million, but the net loss widened to $822.24 million and Q1 2026 revenue fell to $34.84 million with a $114.32 million net loss while construction spending and debt increased. | High |
| Valuation | At $22.32, the stock traded at about 43.51x trailing sales and 62.73x EV to sales with a market cap of about $9.13 billion; P/E and P/FCF are not meaningful while GAAP earnings and free cash flow are negative. | High |
| Technical trend | The price closed at $22.32 on July 31, 2026, below the 50-day average of $23.18 and above the 200-day average of $18.64, with RSI near 50.70, average volume near 26.9 million shares, and five-year beta of 3.20. | High |
| Risk level | Very high: project delivery, debt service, customer concentration, power availability, bitcoin economics, dilution, and valuation compression can all move the equity materially. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical data and announced lease terms are well documented; forward earnings require assumptions about rent commencement, construction, costs, and financing. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. The upside case is substantial, but the current quote already discounts a successful transition before lease revenue is visible in financial statements. | Medium-low |
CIFR AI stock forecast
The CIFR AI stock forecast is a three-year scenario framework, not a guaranteed target. Because trailing GAAP EPS is negative, the model uses the StockAnalysis.com FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.52 as a forward starting point. With 30%, 15%, and negative 20% annual EPS paths and 40x, 30x, and 15x exit multiples, financial_rigor.py produced reference values of about $45.7, $23.7, and $4.0. These inputs are illustrative and do not turn analyst estimates into facts.
$34 to $50
More likely if Barber Lake and Black Pearl reach delivery milestones on the current schedule, AWS and Fluidstack rent begins close to plan, the third campus and Stingray are financed without heavy dilution, tenant demand stays strong, and debt remains serviceable as contracted NOI ramps.
$18 to $30
More likely if the two campuses are delivered in stages, lease revenue begins but ramps gradually, the company raises additional equity or debt, bitcoin remains a secondary source of liquidity, and investors assign a high but lower growth multiple.
$3 to $10
More likely if construction or energization slips, lease milestones are renegotiated, customer concentration or AI demand weakens, financing costs rise, dilution accelerates, or bitcoin losses and debt service consume available liquidity.
CIFR AI technical analysis
CIFR AI technical analysis is neutral but unusually volatile at the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31, 2026 close was $22.32, below the 50-day moving average of $23.18 and above the 200-day average of $18.64. RSI was 50.70, average 20-day volume was about 26.95 million shares, and five-year beta was 3.20. The stock traded in a wide $4.55 to $30.14 range over the past year and swung sharply in late July. These are reference zones, not trade instructions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $22.32 | StockAnalysis.com reported the July 31, 2026 close of $22.32 with an after-hours print near $22.20. Price data should be refreshed before using any level. |
| Near support | $20 to $20.50 | The July 13 close was $20.09, the July 28 close was $20.42, and the July 7 close was $20.47. A hold in this zone would preserve a short-term base attempt. |
| Key support | $18.60 to $18.80 | This zone surrounds the 200-day moving average near $18.64 and the July 20 low of $18.78. A sustained close below it weakens the intermediate trend. |
| Breakdown support | $17.40 to $17.70 | The July 29 low was $17.44, the July 17 close was $17.56, and the July 16 close was $17.72. This area marks the late-July extreme. |
| Near resistance | $22.90 to $23.30 | The July 21 close was $22.89, the July 9 close was $23.26, and the 50-day moving average is near $23.18. A move through this area would need volume and a catalyst from the August 4 update or project execution. |
| Higher resistance | $24.50 to $25.90 | The July 22 close was $24.46, the July 23 close was $25.82, and the July 24 high was $25.80. This zone is a reference area for a recovery, not a target. |
| Major resistance | $28 to $30.14 | Several June closes ran from $26 to $29 and the 52-week high was $30.14. These are reference levels, not price commitments. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $23.18; 200-day $18.64 | Price was below the shorter average and above the longer average at the cutoff, leaving the trend mixed. |
| Momentum | RSI 50.70, neutral | The RSI reading was near the midpoint and far from a reliable overbought or oversold signal. It does not forecast the next move. |
| Volume and volatility | 26.95 million average shares; beta 3.20 | The high volume and beta reflect active trading and large market sensitivity. Position sizing matters more than a single indicator. |
| Invalidation | Decisive close below $18.64 | A sustained break below the 200-day moving average, and then below the July low near $17.44, would weaken the current intermediate structure and require a fresh review of project funding and lease timing. |
CIFR AI trading strategy
The CIFR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a high-beta data center transition. It is not personal advice. Any use of these ideas should include fresh market data, the August 4 Q2 2026 update, project milestone checks, debt and dilution review, and a predefined invalidation level.
Watch whether CIFR reclaims $23.18 and then clears $22.90 to $23.30 with sustained volume, and ideally holds above the $24.50 to $25.90 zone. Confirm any breakout with Barber Lake and Black Pearl delivery updates, rent commencement evidence, financing terms, and tenant disclosures.
A failed move back above the 50-day average or a decisive close below $20 weakens the short-term setup. A sustained close below $18.64 invalidates the current intermediate trend reference.
If CIFR approaches $17.40 to $20.50, compare the price with updated cash, debt, restricted cash, project spending, lease milestones, and dilution before treating the decline as a valuation reset.
Do not average down solely because the stock is below a recent high. Reduce confidence if project costs rise, lease dates slip, or the company funds the gap with large equity issuance.
Track the August 4 Q2 2026 business update, lease commencement and rent recognition, construction progress, capital expenditure, restricted cash, debt maturities, interest expense, share count, bitcoin inventory, operating hashrate, and the third campus and Stingray lease terms.
Lower confidence if contracted capacity remains outside reported revenue, if debt grows faster than project cash flow, or if customer concentration and power obligations increase without matching protections.
Investment research summary
Cipher is trying to turn access to power, land, interconnection, and construction capability into long-duration HPC data center leases. Customers pay for delivered capacity, power, operations, and related services. The reported business was still bitcoin mining at March 31, 2026: Q1 revenue was $34.84 million and no HPC lease revenue had been recognized.
The potential moat is physical and financial rather than consumer-facing: secured sites, power relationships, interconnection approvals, a construction team, and signed hyperscaler or hyperscaler-backed leases. AWS and Fluidstack contracts provide credibility, while Google backstops certain Fluidstack obligations. The moat is not proven until Cipher delivers reliable capacity at acceptable cost and earns repeat tenant trust.
The thesis fails if Barber Lake or Black Pearl misses delivery milestones, power or equipment costs exceed the financing plan, lease revenue is delayed, a tenant renegotiates, AI infrastructure demand cools, or debt and dilution absorb most of the project value. The legacy mining operation adds bitcoin price, network difficulty, power price, and asset impairment risk.
CEO Tyler Page and the leadership team rebranded the company, signed three AI campus leases including a 15-year agreement with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant, closed a $200 million revolving credit facility, secured about $5.2 billion of senior secured and convertible project debt plus the June 2026 $810 million Stingray notes, and kept construction on schedule. The next test is operational: complete the campuses, protect balance-sheet flexibility, and grow value per share rather than only expanding total capacity.
AI and high-performance computing create a long-term need for power-dense data center capacity, and Cipher lists a pipeline of roughly 3.4 GW across seven sites in Texas and one site in Ohio. This is a major infrastructure trend, but it is not automatically a durable corporate moat. Technology changes, grid constraints, tenant capex budgets, financing costs, and data center oversupply can change returns quickly.
The market cap check was about $9.13 billion at $22.32, verified against the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. StockAnalysis.com reported trailing sales of $209.82 million, net cash of negative $4.03 billion, and no meaningful P/E or P/FCF because losses and free cash flow were negative. The quote therefore values future HPC execution, not current earnings. A margin of safety requires evidence that lease cash flows can start on time and cover the large debt and construction obligations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIFR closing price | $22.32 on July 31, 2026, with an after-hours print near $22.20 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $9.13 billion and 409.05 million shares; $22.32 x 409.05 million produced a 0.00% difference from the reported market cap, with shares up 15.83% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $223.94 million, up 48.04% from $151.27 million in 2024; the business was bitcoin mining revenue | Cipher Digital 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $822.24 million GAAP net loss, or $2.15 diluted loss per share; large fair-value and non-recurring items make adjusted figures different | Cipher Digital 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $34.84 million revenue, $114.32 million net loss, $0.28 diluted loss per share, and $91.53 million operating cash flow for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 | Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA | Adjusted EBITDA of negative $48.22 million for Q1 2026 | Cipher Digital Q1 2026 business update press release | May 5, 2026 |
| Cash, restricted cash, and working capital | $715.2 million cash and cash equivalents, $3,011.9 million restricted cash current, $519.3 million restricted cash noncurrent, $2,648.3 million working capital, and $714.2 million stockholders equity at March 31, 2026 | Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Debt structure | Outstanding principal of $5,205.5 million at March 31, 2026, including $172.5 million of 1.75% 2030 convertible notes, $1.3 billion of 0% 2031 convertible notes, $1.733 billion of 7.13% 2030 senior secured notes, and $2.0 billion of 6.13% 2031 senior secured notes | Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| June 2026 senior secured notes | $810 million of 6.00% senior secured notes due 2031, completed June 15, 2026, issued at 99.75% of principal to fund the Stingray facility in Andrews, Texas, and debt service reserves | Cipher Digital Form 8-K filed June 15, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| Revolving credit facility | Up to $200 million of committed capacity with a $50 million accordion, maturing March 2030, priced at SOFR plus 1.25% to 1.75%, undrawn at close, with Morgan Stanley as administrative agent | Cipher Digital press release, March 25, 2026 | March 25, 2026 |
| Contracted HPC capacity | About 600 gross MW across a 15-year AWS lease at Black Pearl and a 10-year Fluidstack lease at Barber Lake backed by Google, with a third 15-year campus lease signed with an investment-grade hyperscale tenant in Q1 2026 | Cipher Digital 2025 Form 10-K and Q1 2026 business update | August 3, 2026 |
| Lease revenue status | The AWS, Fluidstack, and third-campus leases had not commenced and no lease revenue had been recognized as of March 31, 2026; Q1 revenue was entirely bitcoin mining | Cipher Digital Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Construction status | Barber Lake building topped out in April 2026 and remains on schedule, with the facility expected to be delivered to Fluidstack by September 2026; Black Pearl Phase I retrofitting is progressing and Phase II site work began in April 2026 | Cipher Digital Q1 2026 business update | May 5, 2026 |
| Development pipeline | Roughly 3.4 GW of pipeline across seven sites in Texas and one site in Ohio, with about 207 MW of power operated at one bitcoin mining data center in Texas | Cipher Digital 2025 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average $23.18, 200-day moving average $18.64, RSI 50.70, average 20-day volume 26,949,867 shares, and beta 3.20 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Short interest | 56.10 million shares short, 13.71% of shares outstanding, and 2.32 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 17 analysts with an average price target of $32.79, a low of $23, a median of $30, and a high of $69 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | July 28, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | KBW raised to $32 from $27 on July 27, Chardan initiated at $32 on July 27, Bernstein maintained $32 on July 23, Morgan Stanley lowered to $47 from $49 on July 20, and Rosenblatt reiterated $30 on June 25 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $232.32 million with adjusted EPS of negative $0.41, and FY2027 revenue estimate of $853.79 million with adjusted EPS of $0.52; three-year revenue growth forecast of 67.90% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | July 28, 2026 |
| Valuation check | Market cap of $9.13 billion, EV of $13.16 billion, PS of 43.51, forward PS of 22.69, PB of 12.67, EV to sales of 62.73, and net cash of negative $4.03 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | financial_rigor.py output: bullish $45.7, base $23.7, bearish $4.0 using the $0.52 FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate, three years, growth rates of 30%, 15%, and negative 20%, and target multiples of 40x, 30x, and 15x | financial_rigor.py using StockAnalysis.com FY2027 adjusted EPS estimate | August 3, 2026 |
| Upcoming Q2 2026 business update | Second quarter 2026 results and business update scheduled before U.S. market open on Tuesday, August 4, 2026, with a conference call at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time | Cipher Digital press release, July 21, 2026 | July 21, 2026 |
This CIFR AI stock analysis is an informational tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are scenario estimates based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong or incomplete after new earnings, lease milestones, financing, market moves, or macro conditions. Verify current filings, prices, lease terms, and your own circumstances before making any investment decision.
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