Applied Digital Corporation research snapshot
APLD AI stock analysis currently views Applied Digital as a high-risk AI and high-performance computing infrastructure developer that is moving from crypto data center hosting toward long-term hyperscaler leases. For the nine months ended February 28, 2026, revenue was $352.6 million versus $177.5 million a year earlier, while the latest quarter produced $126.6 million of revenue, $44.1 million of adjusted EBITDA, and a $100.9 million net loss attributable to common stockholders. By July 1, Applied Digital reported 175 MW of live capacity at Polaris Forge 1 and 400 MW contracted at that campus. At the July 10 close of $31.15, the stock was below both major moving averages. This APLD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price promise and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$31.15 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$8.90B reported market cap, reconciled to $8.902B from $31.15 x 285.77M shares
AI score
47 / 100
Rating
AI data center growth option with signed long-term leases but negative GAAP earnings, heavy capex, debt, dilution, and customer concentration
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI at 32.90 and $29.90 to $30.60 as near-term support
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Applied Digital is paid to develop and operate power-intensive data centers, provide AI and HPC capacity, and host crypto customers. The go-forward core is more valuable than the legacy narrative, but reported economics are still in transition. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Power-ready sites, utility relationships, speed to service, closed-loop cooling, construction know-how, and long-term customer contracts can create local advantages. The moat is not yet proven at mature scale and is exposed to execution and financing. | Medium |
| Management | Co-founder, Chairman, and CEO Wes Cummins has repositioned the company toward AI factories, delivered 175 MW at Polaris Forge 1, and secured large leases. The test is whether project financing and capital allocation create per-share value without excessive dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Nine-month FY2026 revenue rose to $352.6M from $177.5M, and nine-month adjusted EBITDA reached $64.9M. GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $138.5M, operating cash flow was negative $42.9M, and capex was $1.577B. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.15, StockAnalysis reported 27.88x price to sales, 5.62x price to book, and 31.32x EV to sales. PE and price to free cash flow are not useful while earnings and free cash flow are negative, so the market is valuing future execution. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close was below the 200-day average of $32.55 and well below the 50-day average of $41.14. RSI at 32.90 is weak and near oversold territory, but beta of 5.68 and 26.02% short interest make reversals and breakdowns unusually sharp. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company is funding multi-billion-dollar campuses with debt and equity while relying on a small set of major customers, construction milestones, power delivery, lease credit, and favorable capital markets. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical figures and announced milestones are well sourced, but any forward earnings bridge depends on assumptions about ready-for-service dates, lease economics, financing, and share count. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | The business may benefit from a long AI infrastructure cycle, but the stock is not a high-certainty compounder until live capacity produces recurring cash flow after interest, project costs, preferred claims, and dilution. | Low to medium-low |
APLD AI stock forecast
The APLD AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework, not a fixed target. The mechanical model starts with a $0.36 annualized adjusted EPS proxy based on the latest $0.09 quarterly adjusted EPS, while GAAP EPS and free cash flow remain negative. Using 50%, 25%, and 0% annual growth assumptions with 40x, 30x, and 20x exit multiples produced model anchors of about $48.60, $21.10, and $7.20. The wider ranges below reflect construction, financing, lease, and dilution uncertainty.
$45 to $60
More likely if Polaris Forge 1 reaches contracted capacity on schedule, new campuses are financed on acceptable terms, high-quality tenants pay as agreed, live AI capacity grows faster than share count, and adjusted earnings convert into positive operating cash flow.
$18 to $25
More likely if the company delivers additional capacity but construction and interest costs remain heavy, contracted revenue ramps unevenly, equity issuance continues, and the market values APLD on a cautious forward sales or adjusted earnings multiple.
$6 to $10
More likely if projects are delayed, tenant credit or lease terms weaken, financing becomes expensive or unavailable, power delivery fails, crypto hosting margins fall, or dilution and preferred claims absorb much of the operating upside.
APLD AI technical analysis
APLD AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. The July 10 close was $31.15, below the 200-day moving average at $32.55 and the 50-day moving average at $41.14. RSI was 32.90, average 20-day volume was 19.43 million shares, beta was 5.68, and the July 10 volume of 12.30 million shares was below that average. These are static reference levels, so confirm live data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.15 | Latest verified closing price from July 10, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation references. |
| Near support | $29.90 to $30.60 | The July 8 low was $29.93 and the July 10 low was $30.60, creating a nearby price-action reference zone. |
| Secondary support | $27 to $28 | This zone is near the February 28 reference price and prior consolidation before the June and July decline. |
| Near resistance | $32.55 | The 200-day moving average is the first trend-reclaim test above the July 10 close. |
| Major resistance | $41.14 | The 50-day moving average is a much higher reclaim level and would require stronger momentum and participation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $41.14, 200-day $32.55 | Price below both averages signals a weak trend until the stock reclaims them with confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI 32.90 | Momentum is weak and close to oversold territory, but an oversold reading does not establish a durable bottom. |
| Volume | 20-day average 19.43M shares | The July 10 volume of about 12.30M shares was below average. A reclaim is more credible if volume expands above this reference. |
| Volatility | Beta 5.68 and short interest 26.02% | High beta and significant short interest can amplify both rallies and declines around earnings, financing, and lease news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $29.90 | A decisive break below the recent support zone weakens the near-term stabilization case and requires a fresh review of the operating thesis. |
APLD AI trading strategy
This APLD AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price action with ready-for-service milestones, lease credit, financing terms, cash burn, debt, share count, and customer concentration.
Wait for APLD to reclaim $32.55 and then show strength toward $41.14 with volume above the 20-day average. Confirm the move with a new operating milestone, stable lease economics, and no surprise equity or debt financing.
A failed reclaim of $32.55 or a close below $29.90 weakens the setup. Do not treat a short squeeze as evidence that project economics improved.
If APLD holds the $29.90 to $30.60 zone, compare the price with live capacity, next-quarter revenue recognition, net debt, interest cost, dilution, and the timing of the next campus before assuming the selloff created value.
Do not average down solely because RSI is near oversold. A lower price can reflect higher financing risk, weaker tenant credit, or delayed construction rather than a safer entry.
Track the expected July 29, 2026 earnings update, live megawatts, revenue by Data Center Hosting and HPC Hosting, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, capex, total debt, interest expense, preferred claims, common shares, and CoreWeave or hyperscaler lease updates.
Reassess the thesis if project debt rises faster than operating capacity, customer concentration increases, lease guarantees weaken, dilution accelerates, or positive adjusted earnings do not become positive cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Applied Digital to turn scarce power, land, cooling, and construction capacity into operational data center capacity for AI, HPC, networking, and crypto workloads. The economic product is reliable powered capacity delivered on schedule.
The potential moat is local and operational: power access, utility relationships, ready sites, cooling design, construction repetition, and customer contracts. Long-term leases can create switching costs after a facility is live, but they do not remove counterparty or refinancing risk.
The thesis fails if Applied Digital cannot finish campuses on time, if power or equipment delays prevent revenue recognition, if tenants renegotiate or fail, if debt service outruns cash generation, or if equity issuance transfers the value of the buildout away from common shareholders.
Wes Cummins is a co-founder, Chairman, and CEO. His major decisions include shifting the platform toward AI factories, signing long-term hyperscaler leases, separating the Cloud Services business, and financing construction with secured debt, preferred capital, and equity. The capital-allocation record is still short.
AI training and inference demand is creating a power and data center capacity shortage, which supports the industry backdrop. The key question is whether Applied Digital can capture that trend with acceptable project returns after electricity, construction, interest, preferred claims, and dilution.
At $31.15, the stock traded at about 27.88x sales and 5.62x book value while PE and free-cash-flow multiples were not meaningful. The price already assumes substantial future execution, so the margin of safety depends on delivered capacity and cash flow rather than current earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 10 closing price and market data | $31.15 close, 285.77M shares, $8.90B reported market cap, 50-day $41.14, 200-day $32.55, RSI 32.90 | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends APLD market data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap cross-check | $31.15 x 285.77M = $8.902B versus $8.90B reported, 0.02% variance | StockAnalysis and Pineify financial rigor calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Q3 FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA | $126.6M revenue, up 139% year over year, and $44.1M adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended February 28, 2026 | Applied Digital Q3 FY2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 operating trend | $352.6M total revenue, $138.5M net loss attributable to common stockholders, $64.9M adjusted EBITDA | Applied Digital Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and shares at February 28, 2026 | $1.730B cash and cash equivalents, $2.693B current and long-term debt, 285.38M common shares outstanding; cash cross-check variance versus StockAnalysis was 0.01% | Applied Digital Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Nine-month FY2026 cash investment | Negative $42.9M operating cash flow, negative $1.594B investing cash flow, and $1.577B purchases of property and equipment and other assets | Applied Digital Q3 FY2026 Form 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net loss | $144.2M revenue and $233.7M net loss for the year ended May 31, 2025 | Applied Digital FY2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Contracted AI Factory capacity | 1,200 MW of critical IT load across four campuses and approximately $31B of baseline contracted lease revenue as of May 20, 2026 | Applied Digital Polaris Forge 3 lease release | July 12, 2026 |
| Live Polaris Forge 1 capacity | 175 MW live at the campus and 400 MW contracted at full buildout as of July 1, 2026 | Applied Digital Building 2 delivery release | July 12, 2026 |
| Recent financing commitments | $1.59B of 7.000% senior secured notes for ELN-04 and a revolving facility with up to $550M of capacity | Applied Digital June 2026 financing releases | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation and free cash flow references | 27.88x price to sales, 5.62x price to book, negative $1.81B trailing free cash flow, and no meaningful PE ratio | StockAnalysis APLD statistics | July 12, 2026 |
This APLD AI stock analysis page is an informational tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and explicit assumptions, and they can be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, lease terms, financing, and share counts change, so verify current information before making any decision.
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