Applied Digital Corporation research snapshot
APLD AI stock analysis currently views Applied Digital as a high-risk AI and high-performance computing data center developer that has converted signed leases into a large contracted platform. In fiscal 2026, revenue rose 167% to $611.3 million, adjusted EBITDA reached $107.2 million, and the company contracted about 1,410 MW of critical IT load across five campuses, representing roughly $36 billion of base-term contracted lease revenue. It signed about $20 billion of that with a single high investment-grade hyperscaler and now expects to reach a $1 billion net operating income run rate about a year ahead of schedule. At the July 31, 2026 close of $27.39, the stock traded below both major moving averages. This APLD AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a precise price promise and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$27.39 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$7.98B market cap, reconciled to $7.983B from $27.39 x 291.47M shares
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
Execution-led AI data center growth story with $36B of contracted leases and on-time delivery, but GAAP losses, heavy capex, high valuation, customer concentration, and extreme volatility
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI at 41.56 and $22.93 to $23.22 as near-term support after the post-earnings rally
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Applied Digital is paid to develop and operate power-intensive data centers, provide AI and HPC capacity, and host crypto customers. Fiscal 2026 revenue of $611.3M and $90.4M of net operating income show the core model working, but reported GAAP economics are still in transition. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Power-ready sites, utility relationships, speed to service, closed-loop cooling, construction know-how, and long-term leases with investment-grade customers create local advantages. On-time delivery and franchise replication are real differentiators, but the moat is not yet proven at mature scale and is exposed to execution and financing. | Medium-high |
| Management | Co-founder, Chairman, and CEO Wes Cummins has scaled the platform from one campus to five, lifted contracted lease value from about $7B to $36B in a year, delivered 175 MW on schedule, and lowered financing costs. The test is whether project financing and capital allocation create per-share value without excessive dilution. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2026 revenue rose 167% to $611.3M, adjusted EBITDA reached $107.2M, and net operating income was $90.4M. GAAP net loss attributable to common stockholders was $249.2M, operating cash flow turned positive at about $89.7M, and capex was roughly $2.87B. | High |
| Valuation | At $27.39, the stock traded at about 13.06x price to sales, 4.59x price to book, and 18.80x EV to sales. PE and price to free cash flow are not meaningful while earnings and free cash flow are negative, so the market is valuing future execution. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close was below the 200-day average of $32.65 and well below the 50-day average of $37.40. RSI at 41.56 is neutral, but beta of 5.68 and short interest near 24% of shares out make reversals and breakdowns unusually sharp. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is high because the company is funding multi-billion-dollar campuses with debt and equity while relying on a small set of major customers, construction milestones, power delivery, lease credit, and favorable capital markets. | High |
| AI confidence | Historical figures and announced milestones are well sourced, but any forward earnings bridge depends on assumptions about ready-for-service dates, lease economics, financing, and share count. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | The business may benefit from a long AI infrastructure cycle, but the stock is not a high-certainty compounder until live capacity produces recurring cash flow after interest, project costs, preferred claims, and dilution. | Low to medium-low |
APLD AI stock forecast
The APLD AI stock forecast is a scenario range, not a fixed target. The analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $74.14 and a range from $36.50 at Morgan Stanley to $109, but this page applies wider ranges because the stock still trades at roughly 13x trailing sales while GAAP earnings and free cash flow are negative. Management now expects a $1 billion net operating income run rate about a year ahead of schedule, which supports the upper scenarios if delivered.
$55 to $85
More likely if Applied Digital delivers contracted campuses on time, reaches the $1 billion net operating income run rate roughly a year from now, signs the additional 1.7 GW it is marketing at higher rates, keeps lowering its cost of capital, and limits dilution.
$32 to $50
More likely if the company converts contracted capacity to revenue gradually, net operating income climbs but slower than the headline target, construction and interest costs remain heavy, the market keeps discounting AI infrastructure names, and equity issuance continues.
$14 to $24
More likely if projects are delayed, tenant credit or lease terms weaken, financing becomes expensive or unavailable, power delivery slips, customer concentration worsens, or dilution and preferred claims absorb much of the operating upside.
APLD AI technical analysis
APLD AI technical analysis is cautious as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The July 31 close was $27.39, below the 200-day moving average at $32.65 and the 50-day moving average at $37.40. RSI was 41.56, average 20-day volume was 20.44 million shares, beta was 5.68, and short interest was about 23.97% of shares outstanding. These are static reference levels, so confirm live data before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $27.39 | Latest verified closing price from July 31, 2026, used for market-cap and valuation references. |
| Near support | $22.93 to $23.22 | The July 29 low was $22.93 and the close was $23.22, creating the base of the post-earnings rally. |
| Secondary support | $25.34 to $25.41 | The July 28 intraday low was $25.41 and the July 30 intraday low was $25.34, forming a secondary reference zone. |
| Near resistance | $30.00 to $30.24 | The July 31 open was $30.00 and the intraday high was $30.24, marking the first overhead test above the close. |
| Major resistance | $32.65 | The 200-day moving average is the first trend-reclaim test above the July 31 close. |
| Secondary resistance | $37.40 | The 50-day moving average is a much higher reclaim level and would require stronger momentum and participation. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $37.40, 200-day $32.65 | Price below both averages signals a weak trend until the stock reclaims them with confirmation. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.56 | Momentum is neutral, so the July 30 and July 31 bounce needs follow-through rather than an oversold reading alone. |
| Volume | 20-day average 20.44M shares | The July 30 rally on 25.59M shares was above average. A reclaim is more credible if volume stays elevated. |
| Volatility | Beta 5.68 and short interest 23.97% | High beta and significant short interest can amplify both rallies and declines around earnings, financing, and lease news. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $22.93 | A decisive break below the July 29 low weakens the near-term stabilization case and requires a fresh review of the operating thesis. |
APLD AI trading strategy
This APLD AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price action with ready-for-service milestones, lease credit, financing terms, cash burn, debt, share count, and customer concentration.
Wait for APLD to reclaim $30.00 to $30.24, then show strength toward $32.65 and $37.40 with volume above the 20-day average. Confirm the move with a new operating milestone, stable lease economics, and no surprise equity or debt financing.
A failed reclaim of $30.00 or a close below $22.93 weakens the setup. Do not treat a short squeeze as evidence that project economics improved.
If APLD holds the $22.93 to $23.22 zone, compare the price with live capacity, next-quarter revenue recognition, net debt, interest cost, dilution, and the timing of the next campus before assuming the selloff created value.
Do not average down solely because the price is well off its 52-week high. A lower price can reflect higher financing risk, weaker tenant credit, or delayed construction rather than a safer entry.
Track the next quarterly earnings update, live megawatts, revenue by Data Center Hosting and HPC Hosting, net operating income, adjusted EBITDA, operating cash flow, capex, total debt, interest expense, preferred claims, common shares, and hyperscaler or CoreWeave lease updates.
Reassess the thesis if project debt rises faster than operating capacity, customer concentration increases, lease guarantees weaken, dilution accelerates, or positive adjusted earnings do not become positive cash flow.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Applied Digital to turn scarce power, land, cooling, and construction capacity into operational data center capacity for AI, HPC, networking, and crypto workloads. The economic product is reliable powered capacity delivered on schedule.
The potential moat is local and operational: power access, utility relationships, ready sites, cooling design, construction repetition, and customer contracts. Long-term leases with investment-grade hyperscalers can create switching costs after a facility is live, but they do not remove counterparty or refinancing risk.
The thesis fails if Applied Digital cannot finish campuses on time, if power or equipment delays prevent revenue recognition, if tenants renegotiate or fail, if debt service outruns cash generation, or if equity issuance transfers the value of the buildout away from common shareholders.
Wes Cummins is a co-founder, Chairman, and CEO. His major decisions include shifting the platform toward AI factories, signing leases with investment-grade hyperscalers and CoreWeave, separating the Cloud Services business into ChronoScale, and financing construction with secured debt, preferred capital, and equity. The capital-allocation record is improving but still short.
AI training and inference demand is creating a power and data center capacity shortage, which supports the industry backdrop. U.S. hyperscalers have committed to roughly $850 billion of data center lease obligations, and Applied Digital sees a clear line of sight to over 5 GW of critical IT load on existing campuses by 2032.
At $27.39, the stock traded at about 13.06x sales and 4.59x book value while PE and free-cash-flow multiples were not meaningful. The price already assumes substantial future execution, so the margin of safety depends on delivered capacity and cash flow rather than current earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 closing price and market data | $27.39 close, 291.47M shares, $7.98B market cap, 50-day $37.40, 200-day $32.65, RSI 41.56 | StockAnalysis APLD market data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market-cap cross-check | $27.39 x 291.47M = $7.983B versus $7.98B reported, 0.04% variance | StockAnalysis and Pineify financial rigor calculation | August 3, 2026 |
| Q4 FY2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA | $258.7M revenue, up 407% year over year, $12.9M adjusted net income, and $42.4M adjusted EBITDA for the quarter ended May 31, 2026 | Applied Digital Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Full-year FY2026 operating trend | $611.3M total revenue, $249.2M net loss attributable to common stockholders, $36.1M adjusted net income, $107.2M adjusted EBITDA | Applied Digital Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash, debt, and shares at May 31, 2026 | $1.592B cash and cash equivalents, $4.960B long-term debt, 287.88M common shares outstanding at fiscal year end | Applied Digital FY2026 Form 10-K | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 cash flow | About $89.7M positive operating cash flow, $2.87B capex, and about negative $2.78B free cash flow for the trailing twelve months | StockAnalysis APLD cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net loss | $228.6M revenue and $233.7M net loss attributable to common stockholders for the year ended May 31, 2025 | Applied Digital Q4 FY2026 earnings release and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Contracted AI Factory capacity | Approximately 1,410 MW of contracted critical IT load across five campuses and approximately $36 billion of base-term contracted lease revenue as of July 27, 2026 | Applied Digital Q4 FY2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 3, 2026 |
| Live Polaris Forge 1 capacity | 175 MW live at the campus, with the first 100 MW operational in October 2025 and an additional 75 MW delivered on June 30, 2026 | Applied Digital Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Recent financing commitments | $2.15B of 6.750% senior secured notes for Polaris Forge 2 and $1.59B of 7.000% senior secured notes for the fourth building at Polaris Forge 1 | Applied Digital Q4 FY2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and targets | Strong Buy consensus from 11 analysts, average target $74.14, with the range from $36.50 at Morgan Stanley to $109 | StockAnalysis APLD forecast and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation and free cash flow references | 13.06x price to sales, 4.59x price to book, 18.80x EV to sales, negative $2.78B trailing free cash flow, and no meaningful PE ratio | StockAnalysis APLD statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This APLD AI stock analysis page is an informational tool, not investment advice, a solicitation, or a personalized recommendation. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data and explicit assumptions, and they can be wrong. Prices, technical levels, filings, lease terms, financing, and share counts change, so verify current information before making any decision.
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