United Parcel Service, Inc. research snapshot
UPS AI stock analysis currently reads United Parcel Service as a global logistics franchise that just completed a structural reset and re-entered revenue growth. UPS closed near $104.22 on July 31, 2026, with a market cap near $88.59 billion. Q2 2026 revenue rose 7.6% to $22.8 billion, adjusted operating margin expanded to 9.2%, and management raised FY2026 guidance to roughly $91.2 billion of revenue and $7.22 of adjusted diluted EPS after finishing the Amazon glide-down. The UPS AI stock forecast still must account for package volume declines, the 2028 Teamsters contract, fuel and tariff volatility, debt, and a dividend that exceeds trailing GAAP earnings. This page is for information only and is not investment advice.
Current price
$104.22 on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$88.59 billion market cap, verified from $104.22 and 850.01 million shares outstanding
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Completed structural reset with returned revenue growth, raised FY2026 guidance, and a 6.29% dividend yield, offset by labor, fuel, and mix risk
Trend status
Medium-term uptrend intact above the 200-day average, but short-term momentum is below the 50-day average after the July 28 earnings pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | UPS moves about 22 million packages a day across more than 200 countries and territories, selling time-definite delivery, returns, healthcare logistics, international shipping, and supply-chain services to businesses and consumers. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from route density, brand trust, sorting hubs, aircraft and ground assets, shipper integrations, healthcare cold chain, and RFID and AI visibility across the network. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Carol Tome and CFO Brian Dykes completed the Amazon glide-down and network reconfiguration as designed, raised FY2026 guidance, and guided to about $5.5 billion of free cash flow and $5.4 billion of dividends, but execution risk remains. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 7.6% to $22.8 billion, adjusted operating profit rose 12% to $2.1 billion, adjusted operating margin reached 9.2%, and management raised full-year guidance to roughly $91.2 billion of revenue and $7.22 of adjusted EPS. | High |
| Valuation | At $104.22, UPS trades near 19.4 times trailing GAAP EPS, 13.4 times forward adjusted EPS, 0.99 times sales, and 16.2 times free cash flow, with a dividend yield near 6.29%. | High |
| Technical trend | UPS closed below the 50-day moving average near $108.73 but just above the 200-day moving average near $103.32, with an RSI near 37.8 after a 6.6% earnings-day drop on July 28. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are weak package volume, the 2028 Teamsters contract, fuel and tariff volatility, Amazon mix, debt near $28.7 billion, pension obligations, and a dividend that exceeds trailing GAAP earnings. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the Q2 2026 release, the raised guidance, and third-party financial data align closely. Predictive confidence is medium because turnaround timing and package demand remain uncertain. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | UPS can work if the completed reset converts into durable margin gains, but the stock needs evidence that the raised guidance translates into sustained EPS growth before certainty rises. | Medium |
UPS AI stock forecast
The UPS AI stock forecast uses the July 31, 2026 close near $104.22, the raised FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance near $7.22, and analyst estimates that reach about $8.07 for FY2027. A three-year scenario model produced a bearish value near $78, a base value near $107, and a bullish value near $137 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not guaranteed price targets.
$130 to $145 before dividends
More likely if UPS sustains the Q2 momentum, U.S. operating margin expands toward high-single digits, healthcare and SMB premium volume keeps growing, international recovers on the China-U.S. and Asia-Asia lanes, FY2028 adjusted EPS reaches about $8.50 to $9.00, and the market re-rates toward a 15 to 16 times forward multiple.
$98 to $115 before dividends
More likely if UPS delivers the raised FY2026 guidance of roughly $91.2 billion of revenue and $7.22 of adjusted EPS, grows EPS modestly toward $8 by FY2028, holds the dividend near $6.56, and trades near a 13 to 14 times forward multiple.
$70 to $85 before dividends
More likely if package volume declines resume, U.S. domestic average daily volume keeps falling, the 2028 Teamsters contract lifts labor costs, fuel and tariff headwinds persist, Amazon share reduction continues, and GAAP EPS stays pressured near trailing levels with the multiple compressing toward 10 to 11 times forward earnings.
UPS AI technical analysis
UPS AI technical analysis uses market data available at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. UPS closed at $104.22 on July 31, 2026, within a trailing 52-week range of $82.00 to $122.41. StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average near $108.73 and the 200-day moving average near $103.32, so price sits below the 50-day average but just above the 200-day average with an RSI near 37.8. The medium-term setup is still intact, but short-term momentum is weak after the July 28 earnings selloff.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $104.22 | StockAnalysis showed this July 31, 2026 close, with after-hours trading near $104.50. |
| Immediate support | $103 to $104 | The July 28 and July 30 intraday lows near $103.09 and $102.83 bracket the StockAnalysis 200-day moving average near $103.32. |
| Trend support | $100 | The $100 round number is a psychological level that held the market before the June-July rally, and a clean break below it would test the late-May lows. |
| Deeper support | $96 to $98 | UPS traded near $96.70 to $99.20 in late May 2026, while the trailing 52-week low is $82.00. |
| Near resistance | $108 to $110 | The StockAnalysis 50-day moving average near $108.73 sits in this zone along with the pre-earnings July price range. |
| Major resistance | $112 to $118 | UPS closed near $117.72 on July 17, 2026 and near $117.58 on July 22 before the earnings drop, with the trailing high near $122.41. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $108.73, 200-day near $103.32 | StockAnalysis statistics place price below the 50-day average and just above the 200-day average, which keeps the medium-term trend positive but the short-term setup fragile. |
| Momentum | Weak short-term, intact medium-term | The July 28 drop of 6.6% pushed RSI near 37.8 and left momentum negative below the 50-day average even though price is still above the 200-day average. |
| Volume | Average volume near 5.1 million shares | StockAnalysis listed 20-day average volume near 5.1 million shares, while the July 28 earnings session printed about 14.3 million shares, showing distribution on the downside. |
| Invalidation | Close below $103, then below $98 | A daily close below the $103 to $104 200-day zone would weaken the medium-term setup. A sustained break below $98 would open a path toward the $90 zone and the $82 trailing low. |
UPS AI trading strategy
The UPS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price action with U.S. domestic volume and margin, revenue per piece versus cost per piece, SMB and healthcare growth, international lane recovery, Amazon mix, automation percent, free cash flow, dividend coverage, debt, and the 2028 Teamsters contract timeline.
Watch for UPS to reclaim the $108 to $110 zone above the 50-day moving average on volume near or above the 5.1 million share average while quarterly results confirm the raised FY2026 guidance of roughly $91.2 billion of revenue and $7.22 of adjusted EPS.
A failed recovery below $108 followed by a close under $103 should reduce setup confidence, especially if U.S. average daily volume or operating margin disappoints.
If UPS holds the $103 to $104 support and the $100 level without a deterioration in dividend coverage or free cash flow, compare the price with forward adjusted EPS near $7.22 and analyst targets that range from $76 to $135.
Do not treat the 6.29% dividend yield as a standalone buy signal because the payout exceeds trailing GAAP EPS, and labor or fuel costs can pressure cash flow.
Track U.S. Domestic revenue and operating margin, revenue per piece versus cost per piece, SMB and healthcare volume, international lane growth, Amazon mix near 9% of revenue, automation percent near 68.5%, free cash flow near the $5.5 billion guidance, dividend payout near $5.4 billion, and 2028 Teamsters contract headlines.
Position sizing should reflect that UPS is essential infrastructure for commerce, but its earnings are still cyclical, labor-intensive, capital-intensive, and sensitive to customer mix.
Investment research summary
Customers pay UPS to move packages, freight, and logistics data reliably through a dense integrated air and ground network that handles about 22 million packages a day across more than 200 countries and territories. The business turns route density, shipper trust, automation, and real-time visibility into cash flow.
UPS has meaningful scale, brand, route density, hubs, aircraft, healthcare cold chain, customer integrations, and RFID and AI visibility. The moat can narrow if Amazon, FedEx, USPS, regional carriers, or gig-enabled networks take profitable volume or reset customer pricing power.
The thesis fails if the completed Amazon glide-down does not translate into durable margin gains, if 2028 Teamsters negotiations reset labor costs, if fuel and geopolitical shocks compress international margins, or if a dividend that exceeds trailing GAAP earnings forces restrictive capital allocation choices.
Management chose mix and margin over all-volume growth and executed the reset as designed, raising FY2026 guidance to roughly $91.2 billion of revenue, $8.65 billion of adjusted operating profit, and $7.22 of adjusted EPS. The near-term test is expanding margin through the second half and into 2027.
E-commerce, healthcare logistics, cross-border trade, returns, and small business shipping support long-term demand. The offset is that parcel delivery is competitive, labor-heavy, fuel-sensitive, and increasingly shaped by large shippers building their own logistics capacity.
At $104.22, UPS trades near 19.4 times trailing GAAP EPS, 13.4 times forward adjusted EPS, and 0.99 times sales with a 6.29% dividend yield. The margin of safety depends on EPS recovery under the raised guidance rather than on the headline multiple or yield alone.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $104.22 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis UPS quote (CBOE) | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $88.59 billion | StockAnalysis UPS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 850.01 million shares | StockAnalysis UPS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue | $22.8 billion, up 7.6% year over year | UPS 2Q 2026 earnings press release, Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 earnings per share | $1.76 adjusted, $0.71 GAAP | UPS 2Q 2026 earnings press release | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 GAAP net income | $604 million, down from $1.283 billion a year earlier | CNBC UPS Q2 2026 earnings coverage | July 28, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $88.661 billion revenue and $5.572 billion net income | Macrotrends and UPS 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing twelve months | $89.93 billion revenue, $4.57 billion net income, $5.38 EPS | StockAnalysis UPS financials | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2026 raised guidance | Revenue near $91.2 billion, adjusted operating profit near $8.65 billion, adjusted diluted EPS near $7.22, capex near $3.0 billion, free cash flow near $5.5 billion, dividends near $5.4 billion | UPS 2Q 2026 earnings press release and Q2 2026 earnings call | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment revenue | U.S. Domestic $14.93 billion, up 6.0%; International $5.04 billion, up 12.5%; Supply Chain Solutions $2.86 billion, up 7.8% | UPS 2Q 2026 earnings press release | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet June 30, 2026 | Cash near $4.7 billion with no commercial paper outstanding; total debt near $28.67 billion | UPS Q2 2026 earnings call and StockAnalysis statistics | July 28, 2026 |
| Amazon glide-down status | Completed; about 2 million lower-yield pieces per day eliminated and roughly $4.5 billion of related expense removed; Amazon near 9% of revenue | UPS Q2 2026 earnings call transcript | July 28, 2026 |
| Technical trend | 50-day moving average near $108.73, 200-day moving average near $103.32, RSI near 37.8 | StockAnalysis UPS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $82.00 to $122.41 | StockAnalysis, Yahoo Finance, and Macrotrends UPS quotes | August 1, 2026 |
| Dividend | $6.56 per share, near 6.29% yield, payout near 122% of trailing GAAP EPS | StockAnalysis UPS statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating across 29 analysts, average price target near $115.85, range of $76 to $135 | StockAnalysis UPS forecast, S&P Global and TipRanks data | July 29, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold UPS. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available data as of the August 2026 cutoff and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, dividend policy, and your own risk constraints before making decisions.
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