Centerra Gold Inc. research snapshot
CGAU AI stock analysis reads Centerra Gold as a mid-tier producer running the Mount Milligan copper-gold mine in British Columbia, the Oksut gold mine in Turkey, and a restarted molybdenum business through its US Moly unit. The August 3, 2026 close of $17.62 and a verified market capitalization of about $3.45 billion anchor the current assessment. Q2 2026 delivered revenue of $442.7 million, up 54% year over year, net earnings of $72.1 million, and a beat versus consensus on both revenue and EPS, while the company raised its 2026 gold production guidance to 260,000 to 290,000 ounces and expanded share buybacks to $200 million. The forward picture still depends on elevated gold, copper, and molybdenum prices, on-time delivery of the Thompson Creek restart, and stable Turkish operations. The AI stock forecast uses three scenarios rather than a certain price prediction. This is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$17.62
Market cap
About $3.45 billion verified market cap (USD)
AI score
60 / 100
Rating
Mid-tier gold, copper, and molybdenum producer with a Q2 2026 earnings beat, raised 2026 production guidance, a $200 million buyback program, and a Buy analyst consensus
Trend status
The stock is up about 150% over the past 52 weeks and closed at $17.62 on August 3, 2026, above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a strong Q2 2026 report
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Centerra produces gold and copper at Mount Milligan in British Columbia, gold at Oksut in Turkey, and molybdenum through the restarted US Moly business (Langeloth facility and the Thompson Creek mine under restart). Mount Milligan is a long-life, low-cost copper-gold asset executing on its September 2025 pre-feasibility study, which extends mine life to 2045. Oksut outperformed in the first half of 2026, and US Moly adds a third revenue stream with Thompson Creek first production targeted for mid-2027. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The advantage is resource-based: permitted mineral reserves, long-life producing assets, existing processing and infrastructure, water and power rights, community relationships, and experienced operating teams. A Royal Gold streaming agreement provides stable gold and copper realization, and new mine supply remains slow and costly to bring online, which supports the value of existing assets. | Medium |
| Management | The team led by President and CEO Paul Tomory delivered a strong operating quarter, raised 2026 gold guidance, expanded share buybacks to up to $200 million, and upsized the revolving credit facility to $600 million at better pricing. Kelly Strong joins as COO effective August 17, 2026. The key tests are disciplined delivery of the Thompson Creek restart within its $425 to $450 million estimate and continued cost control across the portfolio. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 54% year over year to $442.7 million, with net earnings of $72.1 million and adjusted net earnings of $79.3 million. First-half 2026 revenue was $927.4 million, up 58%. Trailing-twelve-month revenue is about $1.72 billion. The balance sheet holds about $407 million in net cash, and liquidity reached about $1.05 billion after the credit facility was upsized to $600 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $17.62, the stock trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 8 to 10 times adjusted consensus earnings, roughly 2.0 times sales, and about 3.4 times EV/EBITDA. The trailing GAAP P/E of about 5x is distorted by one-time items booked in 2025. The three-scenario model produces a bullish target near $41, a base target near $25, and a bearish target near $10 over three years, while analyst consensus sits at Buy with an average target of $23.25. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The August 3, 2026 close of $17.62 is above the 50-day moving average of $16.35 and the 200-day moving average of $16.16, with RSI near 56.65. TradingView rates the summary as Buy, with moving averages at strong buy and oscillators neutral. The stock sits within its 52-week range of $6.71 to $21.17. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because gold, copper, and molybdenum prices are high relative to history, the Thompson Creek restart and Goldfield project require substantial capital, Turkish political and currency exposure remains, non-sustaining capital spending is running at $100 to $125 million for 2026, and a roughly 150% twelve-month rally reduces the margin of safety for new buyers. | High |
| AI confidence | High for source-backed financials, production, guidance, market-cap verification, and valuation arithmetic. Lower for forward commodity prices, Thompson Creek execution, Turkish jurisdiction risk, and future share price outcomes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The balance sheet, growth pipeline, and analyst support are visible, but single-commodity price exposure, heavy growth capital, Turkish operations, and the size of the recent price run all reduce the certainty level. | Medium-low |
CGAU AI stock forecast
The CGAU AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $17.62 cutoff price. The financial-rigor model produced values near $41 in the bullish case, near $25 in the base case, and near $10 in the bearish case using explicit adjusted-EPS growth and terminal-P/E assumptions. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average one-year target of $23.25 across 12 analysts. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$33 to $42
More likely if gold, copper, and molybdenum prices stay elevated or rise further, Thompson Creek reaches first production in mid-2027 within its capital estimate, Oksut continues to outperform and benefits from the Turkish corporate tax cut to 12.5% from 2027, Mount Milligan keeps meeting its pre-feasibility plan, and the stock re-rates toward higher multiples as projects de-risk.
$22 to $27
More likely if metal prices hold near current levels, Thompson Creek and Goldfield progress with manageable cost and schedule variance, Oksut and Mount Milligan stay on guidance, free cash flow turns positive as the largest capital outlays pass, and the stock trades near its current forward multiple of about 8 to 10 times adjusted earnings.
$8 to $13
More likely if gold, copper, or molybdenum prices correct sharply from elevated levels, Thompson Creek suffers major cost overruns or delays, Turkish operations face political or currency disruption, free cash flow stays negative while buybacks continue, or cost inflation erodes margins across the portfolio.
CGAU AI technical analysis
CGAU AI technical analysis uses public market data available around the August 3, 2026 cutoff. The stock closed at $17.62 on August 3, 2026, up about 150% over the past 52 weeks and within a 52-week range of $6.71 to $21.17. The price sits above both the 50-day moving average near $16.35 and the 200-day moving average near $16.16. TradingView rates the summary as Buy, with moving averages at strong buy and oscillators neutral. This static page does not fetch request-time prices, so confirm live price, volume, moving averages, and momentum before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $17.62 | NYSE closing price on August 3, 2026, used for this static research snapshot. |
| Near support | $16.15 to $16.40 | The zone around the 50-day moving average of $16.35 and the 200-day moving average of $16.16. A monitoring zone, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Key support | $14.90 to $15.50 | The area of prior consolidation and the breakout zone from earlier in the year. Should be reconfirmed with a live chart. |
| Near resistance | $18.50 to $19.50 | The area just above the current price that capped prior advances. A reclaim above this zone would improve the near-term technical picture. |
| 52-week high | $21.17 | The 52-week high is the main overhead resistance. A break above it with volume would be a strong bullish signal. |
| 50-day moving average | $16.35 | The stock is above the 50-day MA, a positive near-term signal. A loss of it would suggest a momentum pullback. |
| 200-day moving average | $16.16 | Holding above the 200-day MA supports a constructive longer-term technical view. |
| Momentum | Positive with RSI near 56.65 | TradingView rates the summary as Buy with moving averages at strong buy and oscillators neutral. Momentum is constructive but not overbought. |
| Volume | About 1.3 to 1.6 million average shares per session | Breakouts or breakdowns deserve more weight when volume significantly exceeds the recent average. |
| Volatility | High with a 5-year beta of about 1.56 | Gold, copper, and molybdenum price moves, quarterly production reports, and Turkish jurisdiction news can cause above-average price swings. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $15.00 | A confirmed loss of the key support zone would put the stock below the 200-day MA and require a fresh review of metals prices, operations, and the investment thesis. |
CGAU AI trading strategy
The CGAU AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. Use live charts, current Centerra filings, defined position size, and an invalidation rule that fits your time horizon and loss limit.
Wait for CGAU to hold above the 200-day moving average and the 50-day moving average while gold, copper, and molybdenum prices stay constructive, then assess whether the stock can reclaim the $18.50 to $19.50 resistance and eventually test the $21.17 high. Use quarterly production, cost, and guidance updates as fundamental confirmation.
A loss of the 50-day moving average on volume or a breakdown below $15.00 should invalidate the setup before losses become open-ended.
If CGAU pulls back toward the $16.15 to $16.40 moving-average cluster while metal prices hold and the company keeps reporting on-plan results, evaluate the risk-reward of a position near that zone with a stop below $15.00, or near the $14.90 to $15.50 support with a stop below $14.50.
Do not assume the stock will bounce from support just because it has rallied. Reassess if metal prices break down, Thompson Creek reports cost overruns or delays, or Turkish risk escalates.
Track quarterly gold, copper, and molybdenum production, realized metal prices, all-in sustaining costs against the 2026 guidance of $1,650 to $1,750 per ounce, Mount Milligan performance versus its pre-feasibility plan, Oksut output and the Turkish corporate tax cut, Thompson Creek restart progress and capital spend, Langeloth working capital, balance sheet liquidity, buyback execution, and Kemess and Goldfield milestones.
Reduce confidence when the thesis depends on sustained high commodity prices without matching operational delivery, or when free cash flow stays negative while large capital programs and buybacks run at the same time.
Investment research summary
Centerra converts permitted reserves, mining infrastructure, and operating teams into gold, copper, and molybdenum revenue from two producing assets and a restarted molybdenum business: Mount Milligan in British Columbia, Oksut in Turkey, and the US Moly unit that includes the Langeloth facility and the Thompson Creek mine. A self-funded growth pipeline adds the Goldfield project in Nevada and the Kemess project in British Columbia.
The moat is asset-based: it is difficult and capital-intensive to replicate a permitted, built, and operating copper-gold mine like Mount Milligan, which runs to 2045 under its September 2025 pre-feasibility study and benefits from existing infrastructure, water rights, power access, permits, and operating teams. A Royal Gold streaming agreement stabilizes realized prices, and new mine supply in the metals sector requires years of permitting and billions in capital.
The thesis can fail if elevated gold, copper, and molybdenum prices retreat while costs stay high; if the Thompson Creek restart exceeds its $425 to $450 million estimate or slips past mid-2027 first production; if Turkish political risk or currency moves disrupt Oksut or reverse the planned corporate tax cut; if free cash flow stays negative while buybacks continue; if Mount Milligan deviates from its mine plan; or if the stock has already priced in much of the growth after its roughly 150% twelve-month gain.
The team led by President and CEO Paul Tomory reported a strong Q2 2026, raised 2026 gold guidance, expanded share buybacks to up to $200 million, and upsized the revolving credit facility to $600 million at better pricing. Kelly Strong takes over as COO effective August 17, 2026. The main tests are capital allocation between growth projects and shareholder returns, and on-time delivery of Thompson Creek and Goldfield within budget.
Gold and copper demand benefits from central bank buying, monetary uncertainty, electrification, and AI infrastructure demand for copper, while molybdenum prices are running well above the assumptions in the Thompson Creek feasibility study. New large-scale mine supply remains scarce, which supports the value of existing producing assets. The industry still faces cyclical commodity prices, labor and capital cost inflation, long permitting timelines, and jurisdiction-specific political risk.
At $17.62, CGAU trades at about 8 to 10 times forward adjusted earnings, roughly 2.0 times sales, and about 3.4 times EV/EBITDA, with about $407 million of net cash. The margin of safety depends on metal prices holding, projects executing on budget, and free cash flow turning positive. The bearish scenario of $8 to $13 shows the downside if commodity prices correct, Turkish risk materializes, or the restart program runs into trouble.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price, market capitalization, and shares | $17.62 close on August 3, 2026, about $3.45 billion verified market capitalization, and 196.14 million shares outstanding as of June 30, 2026 | Google Finance, stockanalysis.com, and financial_rigor.py market-cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 financial results | Revenue of $442.7 million, up 54% year over year, net earnings of $72.1 million or $0.37 per share, adjusted net earnings of $79.3 million or $0.40 per share, and adjusted EBITDA of $157.5 million | Centerra Gold Q2 2026 press release via GlobeNewswire and SEC 6-K | July 28, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 versus consensus estimates | EPS of $0.39 versus the $0.38 estimate and revenue of $442.71 million versus the $394.27 million estimate, an earnings beat in a quarter where the stock initially sold off before recovering | Google Finance earnings data | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 production and 2026 guidance | Gold production of 70,727 ounces (Mount Milligan 38,175 and Oksut 32,552) plus copper production of 13.1 million pounds. 2026 gold guidance raised to 260,000 to 290,000 ounces from 250,000 to 280,000, with copper guidance held at 50 to 60 million pounds | Centerra Gold Q2 2026 press release | July 28, 2026 |
| Balance sheet and liquidity | Cash and equivalents of $450.9 million at June 30, 2026, net cash of about $407 million, and liquidity of about $1.05 billion after the revolving credit facility was increased to $600 million with maturity extended to July 2030 | Centerra Gold Q2 2026 press release and stockanalysis.com statistics | July 28, 2026 |
| Shareholder returns | Share repurchases of 2,924,400 common shares for $49.7 million in Q2 2026, up to $200 million approved for full-year 2026 with $72.2 million completed in the first half, and a quarterly dividend of C$0.07 per share | Centerra Gold Q2 2026 press release | July 28, 2026 |
| Valuation and financial-rigor verification | Market-cap math passed at 0.17% variance. Forward price-to-earnings of about 8 to 10 times adjusted consensus earnings, price-to-sales near 2.0x, EV/EBITDA near 3.4x, and a trailing GAAP P/E of about 5x distorted by 2025 one-time items. Three-scenario model: bull $41, base $25, bear $10 | Pineify tools/financial_rigor.py local run and stockanalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage and consensus | Consensus rating of Buy across 12 analysts with an average price target of $23.25 and a range of $17.50 to $29, per S&P Global and TipRanks data through late July 2026 | stockanalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | August 3 close of $17.62, 52-week range of $6.71 to $21.17, 50-day moving average of $16.35, 200-day moving average of $16.16, RSI near 56.65, and a 5-year beta of about 1.56 | stockanalysis.com statistics and TradingView | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical rating | TradingView technical summary of Buy, with moving averages at strong buy, oscillators neutral, a 1-week buy rating, and a 1-month strong buy rating | TradingView technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This CGAU AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a guarantee of returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if gold, copper, or molybdenum prices, operating costs, Mount Milligan or Oksut production results, Thompson Creek or Goldfield development outcomes, Turkish jurisdiction developments, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
