The Carlyle Group 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 research snapshot
CGABL AI stock analysis covers The Carlyle Group 4.625% fixed-rate subordinated notes due 2061, not The Carlyle Group common stock (CG). The notes are issued by Carlyle Finance LLC, carry a 4.625% coupon paid quarterly on a $25.00 face value, and mature May 15, 2061. The latest Barchart reference on August 3, 2026 was $16.19, down 0.18% from the prior session close, against a 52-week range of $16.04 to $18.80. The annual coupon of $1.15625 per note implied a simple current yield of about 7.14% at that price, roughly 35% below the $25.00 par reference. The issuer reported Q1 2026 fee-related earnings of $300 million at a 47% margin with total AUM of $475 billion, and is scheduled to report Q2 2026 results on August 5, 2026. The page is informational research only and not investment advice.
Current price
$16.19 latest reference on August 3, 2026 (Barchart), down 0.18% from the prior session close
Market cap
Not applicable for CGABL, a $25.00 par subordinated note, not common equity; issuer The Carlyle Group market cap near $16.96 billion
AI score
56 / 100
Rating
Discounted subordinated income security of The Carlyle Group with a high current yield and a bearish technical setup, subject to rate, credit, call, and long-duration risks
Trend status
Downtrend with weak trend strength: price below the 5-day, 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day ADX near 11 and thin trading volume
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | CGABL is a 4.625% fixed-rate subordinated note due 2061 issued by Carlyle Finance LLC, a financing entity of The Carlyle Group, which earns management fees, performance-related revenue, and investment income across Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest. Note holders receive fixed quarterly interest rather than residual equity ownership. | High |
| Moat | Carlyle's institutional relationships, investment teams, global distribution, multi-decade track record, and product breadth create switching friction for clients. Those advantages support issuer credit quality but do not eliminate subordination, interest-rate, credit market, or structural risk for CGABL. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Harvey M. Schwartz is executing a plan centered on inflows, fee-related earnings, realizations, and wealth and institutional distribution. Q1 2026 fee-related earnings were $300 million at a 47% margin. For CGABL, the key management test is maintaining liquidity, earnings capacity, and access to capital across market cycles. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | The Carlyle Group reported Q1 2026 fee-related earnings of $300 million, total AUM of $475 billion, fee-earning AUM of $333 billion, distributable earnings of $327 million or $0.89 per share, and a GAAP loss before provision for income taxes of $179 million. FY2025 total AUM was $477 billion, up 8%, with record fee-related earnings up 12% and GAAP income before provision for income taxes of $1.2 billion. These are issuer context, not note-level income coverage. | High for issuer data |
| Valuation | At the $16.19 reference price, the $1.15625 annual coupon implied a simple current yield of about 7.14%. PE, PB, EPS, and FCF-per-share are not applicable. The relevant valuation questions are required yield, issuer credit spread, subordination, duration, call economics, and the value of liquidity risk. | Medium for yield math |
| Technical trend | Barchart reported CGABL-specific moving averages on August 3, 2026. The $16.19 price sat below the 5-day ($16.32), 20-day ($16.35), 50-day ($16.35), 100-day ($16.79), and 200-day ($17.21) averages, with 14-day ADX near 10.73, -DI above +DI, and a 14-day raw stochastic near 13%, a bearish but weakly trending setup. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because CGABL is a subordinated fixed-rate note with a long-dated 2061 maturity. It is subject to market yield changes, issuer credit conditions, subordination risk, call risk, liquidity risk, and the specific terms of the security. Fixed-rate notes lose value when market yields rise. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for disclosed terms, price ranges, the technical snapshot, and issuer context that cross-validated across Barchart, TradingView, Google Finance, and Carlyle materials. Medium-low for the most current live quote, complete bid and ask depth, and future price paths. | Medium |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium. The coupon rate is fixed, but the market price can move on rate changes, credit perception, liquidity, and issuer developments, and the note can trade well below par for extended periods. | Low-medium |
CGABL AI stock forecast
The CGABL AI stock forecast uses income-security price scenarios rather than a single target. At the $16.19 reference, the note traded about 35% below the $25.00 par value with a simple current yield near 7.14%. The bullish case needs lower market yields, stable Carlyle credit, and a narrowing discount. The base case holds CGABL in a range that reflects current market yields and issuer credit. The bearish case allows for a wider discount when long-term rates rise, credit perception worsens, or liquidity thins.
$19.00 to $24.00
More likely if market yields fall, The Carlyle Group maintains strong fee-related earnings and liquidity, the credit outlook stays stable, and investors accept a lower required current yield near 5% to 6%, which would compress the discount toward par.
$15.50 to $18.50
More likely if The Carlyle Group continues normal operations, CGABL trades as a discounted subordinated fixed-rate note, long-term yields stay broadly in the current range, and investors require roughly 6.5% to 7.5% current yield for this subordinated long-duration credit and liquidity exposure.
$12.50 to $15.00
More likely if long-term yields rise further, credit spreads on alternative-asset manager debt widen, The Carlyle Group experiences earnings or liquidity pressure, or thin trading turns a modest concern into a wider discount.
CGABL AI technical analysis
CGABL AI technical analysis is secondary to the fixed-rate terms, market yields, and issuer credit conditions. The note traded at $16.19 on August 3, 2026 within a 52-week range of $16.04 to $18.80. Barchart published CGABL-specific technical data on that date: the price sat below the 5-day average near $16.32, the 20-day and 50-day averages near $16.35, the 100-day near $16.79, and the 200-day near $17.21, with 14-day ADX near 10.73, -DI above +DI, and a 14-day raw stochastic near 13%. These are reference levels rather than live trading signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $16.19 | Barchart last price for the August 3, 2026 reading, with a day range of $16.19 to $16.19 and a close-to-close change of -0.18%. Confirm the next trade before relying on a specific fill. |
| Near support | $16.04 | The 52-week low zone, set on June 9, 2026, is the clearest published lower reference. A sustained break below this level would weaken the discount thesis. |
| Deeper support | $15.60 | The three-year low near $15.60 from September 4, 2023 is the next lower reference if the 52-week low fails. |
| Near resistance | $16.49 to $16.64 | The 5-day high of $16.49 (July 30, 2026) and the 1-month high of $16.64 (July 6, 2026) form the near-term ceiling, with the 5-day and 20-day averages near $16.32 to $16.35 just overhead. |
| Moving averages | $16.32 to $17.21 | Barchart reported the 5-day average near $16.32, the 20-day and 50-day near $16.35, the 100-day near $16.79, and the 200-day near $17.21 on August 3, 2026. Price below all of them is a bearish alignment. |
| Momentum | Bearish with low trend strength | 14-day ADX near 10.73, -DI at 20.32 above +DI at 16.20, and a 14-day raw stochastic near 13% (oversold territory), per Barchart. |
| Volume | Thin | Average volume ran near 19,125 shares (5-day), 13,316 (20-day), and 19,031 (50-day), so wider bid-ask spreads are possible in this note. |
| Volatility | Low | 14-day ATR near $0.15, about 0.94%, with 14-day historic volatility near 8.28%, so normal daily moves are small. |
| Par reference | $25.00 | The $25.00 face value is a contractual redemption reference, not a promise that the market price will reach this level. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $16.00 or a material credit event | A break of the established 52-week low area or any news affecting The Carlyle Group credit standing would invalidate a simple income and mean-reversion framework. |
CGABL AI trading strategy
The CGABL AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a subordinated fixed-rate note, not personalized advice. Review the note prospectus, live quote, yield, issuer filings, payment status, tax treatment, and liquidity before making any decision.
Compare the $1.15625 annual coupon from the 4.625% rate against the live purchase price to calculate the simple current yield. Compare that yield with other Carlyle debt, preferred securities, Treasuries, and alternative-asset manager notes after accounting for subordination, credit, and liquidity differences.
Reassess if market yields rise, Carlyle earnings or liquidity weaken, the spread over safer alternatives no longer compensates, or the note displays wider bid-ask spreads.
If CGABL trades near the $16 area while Carlyle credit is stable, evaluate the discount as a potential income and total-return scenario. Treat the discount as a conditional opportunity, not an automatic return.
Do not add exposure solely because the note trades below $25 par. Fixed-rate subordinated notes can trade below par for extended periods.
With a May 15, 2061 maturity, CGABL has a very long duration, so its price sensitivity to long-term interest rates is high. Track 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields and credit spreads on asset-manager debt alongside Carlyle fee-related earnings, AUM, realizations, distributable earnings, cash, and liquidity.
Reduce confidence if long-term yields rise sharply, credit spreads widen, Carlyle financials or liquidity weaken, or trading liquidity becomes too thin to exit at a reasonable price.
Investment research summary
Customers pay The Carlyle Group for alternative-asset management services across private equity, credit, and solutions. CGABL holders do not own that equity. They hold a 4.625% subordinated note due 2061, issued by Carlyle Finance LLC, whose price and yield depend on the market rate environment, issuer credit, and note-specific liquidity.
Carlyle's moat comes from institutional relationships, investment teams, global distribution, a multi-decade track record, and product breadth. This supports issuer credit quality but does not guarantee CGABL's market price.
The thesis fails if long-term market yields rise, The Carlyle Group faces earnings or liquidity pressure, credit spreads on alternative-asset manager subordinated debt widen, trading liquidity deteriorates, or the note is called at an inopportune time for the holder.
CEO Harvey M. Schwartz has focused on inflows, fee-related earnings, realizations, and distribution, with Q1 2026 fee-related earnings of $300 million at a 47% margin. For CGABL holders, the management question is whether the firm maintains earnings, liquidity, and market access across private-asset cycles.
Alternative assets have grown as institutions and wealth clients seek private-market exposure. The long trend supports Carlyle AUM and fee generation, but the impact on CGABL pricing depends more on rate cycles and credit conditions than on industry growth.
At the $16.19 reference price and $1.15625 annual coupon, the simple current yield was about 7.14%. The margin of safety depends on issuer credit stability, interest payment continuity, the direction of long-term yields, subordination, call economics, and the ability to trade at a reasonable spread.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| CGABL price | $16.19 last price with a day range of $16.19 to $16.19 and a close-to-close change of -0.18% | Barchart CGABL quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| CGABL performance ranges | 5-day $16.15 to $16.49 (-1.04%), 1-month $16.15 to $16.64 (-1.70%), 3-month $16.04 to $17.23 (-5.49%), 6-month $16.04 to $17.85 (-6.95%), YTD $16.04 to $17.85 (-5.32%), 52-week $16.04 to $18.80 (-10.06%), 2-year $16.04 to $20.85 (-11.82%) | Barchart CGABL performance report | August 3, 2026 |
| CGABL security description and terms | The Carlyle Group 4.625% fixed-rate subordinated notes due May 15, 2061; $25.00 face value; 4.625% coupon paid quarterly; issued May 11, 2021 by Carlyle Finance LLC; ISIN US14314C1053; CUSIP 14314C105; listed on NASDAQ | TradingView bond reference (FactSet and ICE) and Google Finance | August 3, 2026 |
| CGABL technical snapshot | 5-day MA $16.32, 20-day MA $16.35, 50-day MA $16.35, 100-day MA $16.79, 200-day MA $17.21; 14-day raw stochastic 13.04%; 14-day ADX 10.73; +DI 16.20, -DI 20.32; 14-day ATR $0.15; 14-day historic volatility 8.28%; average volume 19,125 (5-day) and 13,316 (20-day) | Barchart CGABL technical analysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Barchart technical opinion | 80% Sell with a strengthening short-term outlook; long-term indicators fully support a continuation of the trend | Barchart CGABL opinion | August 3, 2026 |
| Issuer Q1 2026 results | FRE $300 million at a 47% margin (up from $290 million in Q4 2025, down 3% from $311 million in Q1 2025); LTM FRE $1.2 billion; distributable earnings $327 million or $0.89 per share; fund management fees $584 million; total AUM $475 billion; fee-earning AUM $333 billion (down 1% quarter over quarter); GAAP loss before provision for income taxes of $179 million; quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share | Carlyle Q1 2026 earnings release via private-equitynews.com; earnings call transcript via The Motley Fool; investing.com summary | August 3, 2026 (reported May 7, 2026) |
| Issuer FY2025 results | Total AUM $477 billion, up 8%; record fee-related earnings up 12% year over year; GAAP income before provision for income taxes of $1.2 billion for the year ($462 million in Q4 2025, 24.3% margin); record $54 billion of capital deployed in 2025 | Carlyle Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings release and investing.com Q4 2025 slides summary | August 3, 2026 (reported February 6, 2026) |
| Issuer Q2 2026 earnings date | The Carlyle Group will release second quarter 2026 financial results on Wednesday, August 5, 2026, and host a conference call at 8:30 a.m. EDT | Carlyle announcement via GlobeNewswire and StockAnalysis earnings calendar | August 3, 2026 |
| CG common stock context | $47.12 on August 3, 2026, up 2.39%; market capitalization $16.96 billion; 52-week range $39.60 to $69.85; analyst consensus Buy with a price target of $55.59; earnings date August 5, 2026 | StockAnalysis CG quote and forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Current yield approximation | About 7.14% simple current yield from the $1.15625 annual coupon divided by the $16.19 reference price | Pineify calculation based on Barchart and TradingView data | August 3, 2026 |
| Cross-source price divergence note | Google Finance listed a last-trade reference of $17.59 with a February 27 timestamp for CGABL, a stale or delayed print relative to the fresher Barchart reading of $16.19 for the August 3 session | Google Finance CGABL quote | August 3, 2026 |
This CGABL AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, tax advice, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, an indicative price reference, security terms, issuer information, and yield assumptions, and they can be wrong. CGABL is a 4.625% subordinated fixed-rate note due 2061 issued by Carlyle Finance LLC. Prices are subject to market risk, issuer credit risk, interest-rate and duration risk, subordination risk, call risk, and liquidity risk. Investors can lose principal.
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