Bentley Systems, Incorporated research snapshot
BSY AI stock analysis currently reads Bentley Systems as a durable infrastructure engineering software business with a high recurring-revenue base, strong account retention, and a credible AI and digital-twin opportunity. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, BSY closed at $35.44 on July 31 and its reported market capitalization was about $11.10 billion, verified by calculation at a 0.03% deviation. First-quarter 2026 revenue grew 14.5% to $424.2 million, ARR reached $1.4945 billion with 11.5% constant-currency growth, and the company reduced net debt while lowering leverage from 2.1x to 1.9x adjusted EBITDA. The stock is still down about 39% from its 52-week high of $58.64 and trades near 40.6x trailing earnings and 24.96x forward earnings. The BSY AI stock analysis therefore points to a good business at a more reasonable price after the reset, not a guaranteed return. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$35.44 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$11.10 billion reported and verified by calculation
AI score
72 / 100
Rating
High-quality infrastructure software compounder with a stronger balance sheet and a valuation that has reset from its 2025 peak
Trend status
Recovering: price is back above the 50-day average near $31.93 but still below the 200-day average near $37.08, with short-term momentum turning positive
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Bentley sells infrastructure engineering software embedded in design, construction, and operations workflows. About 93% of revenue is recurring, and Q1 2026 account retention held at 99% with net revenue retention at 109%. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from domain expertise, connected applications, interoperability, customer data and workflows, account relationships, and a broad infrastructure lifecycle portfolio. The 2025 dollar-based net retention rate was 109%. | High |
| Management | The Bentley family retains voting control through Class A stock, while CEO Nicholas Cumins has led since 2024 and CFO Werner Andre oversees capital allocation. The company repaid a $678 million convertible note, cut net debt, and kept a balanced buyback and dividend program. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue rose 11.0% to $1.502 billion, net income rose 18.4% to $277.9 million, and free cash flow reached $520.2 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 14.5%, ARR grew 11.5% in constant currency, and TTM free cash flow reached $491.7 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $35.44, BSY traded near 40.6x TTM EPS, 24.96x forward earnings, 22.6x trailing free cash flow, 7.13x sales, and 9.05x book value. Cheaper than its 2025 peak but not a low-expectation valuation. | High |
| Technical trend | The August 2026 snapshot showed RSI near 61.95, a 50-day simple average near $31.93, and a 200-day simple average near $37.08. The price is above the 50-day average and below the 200-day average, so the medium-term trend is still unconfirmed. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are infrastructure budget pressure, competition, AI execution, cyber or cloud outages, acquisition integration, foreign exchange, net debt, dilution, and concentrated voting control. Short interest was about 5.41% of shares outstanding in late July 2026. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for reported facts and calculations, but medium for future stock-price paths and the eventual economic value of AI features. Q2 2026 results, due August 6, 2026, may change the near-term view. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BSY has a strong recurring software model and an improving balance sheet, but the investment case requires continued ARR growth and enough free cash flow to support acquisitions, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. | Medium |
BSY AI stock forecast
The BSY AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the July 31 price of $35.44 and a 2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $1.38. The model produced roughly $70 in the bullish case, $50 in the base case, and $32 in the bearish case. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets, and they are sensitive to both earnings growth and the multiple investors are willing to pay. Q2 2026 earnings are scheduled for August 6, 2026, after this data cutoff.
$60 to $70
More likely if ARR growth stays near or above the 10.5% to 12.5% outlook, Asset Analytics and agentic API consumption scale, margins improve, acquisitions add value, debt keeps falling, and the market supports a premium software multiple.
$42 to $50
More likely if 2026 revenue lands near the $1.685 billion to $1.715 billion outlook, adjusted EPS follows the consensus path toward $1.38, free cash flow stays near the $500 million to $570 million range, and BSY holds a forward multiple in the mid-20s.
$28 to $34
More likely if infrastructure spending slows, ARR growth moves toward mid-single digits, AI features do not produce incremental revenue, acquisitions dilute returns, net debt leverage stays high, or the market re-rates BSY toward a 20x forward multiple.
BSY AI technical analysis
BSY AI technical analysis is improving but unconfirmed as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. BSY closed at $35.44 on July 31, which is above the 50-day simple moving average near $31.93 but below the 200-day simple moving average near $37.08. RSI was near 61.95 and the stock rebounded strongly from a 52-week low of $28.08 on June 25, 2026. These dated levels describe market structure, not a reliable forecast.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.44 | StockAnalysis historical-price reference for the July 31, 2026 close, up about 26% from the June 25, 2026 52-week low of $28.08. |
| Immediate support | $33.70 to $34.10 | Near the July 28 and July 31 session lows and the breakout zone from late July. A close below this area would weaken the short-term recovery. |
| Deeper support | $31.90 to $32.00 | Confluent with the cited 50-day simple moving average of $31.93. This is the first significant demand zone below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $36.15 to $37.26 | Near the July 29 and July 30 intraday highs. The upper end of this zone sits close to the 200-day moving average near $37.08. |
| Higher resistance | $40 | A round-number level that is also the low end of the analyst price-target range near $40. A durable move above it would need improving estimates. |
| Moving averages | 50-day SMA $31.93, 200-day SMA $37.08 | StockAnalysis snapshot dated August 2, 2026. The price was above the 50-day average and below the 200-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 61.95 | The same StockAnalysis snapshot classified RSI as positive but not overbought. Indicator conventions vary by provider. |
| Volume and volatility | 2.54 million shares on July 31 versus about 2.63 million 20-day average volume; several late-July sessions printed 3.3 to 4.5 million shares | Volume and range references are dated. A breakout with materially stronger participation would carry more technical weight. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $28.08 | A durable break below the cited 52-week low would invalidate the current recovery framework and require a fresh earnings and balance-sheet review. |
BSY AI trading strategy
This BSY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with ARR growth, recurring-revenue retention, free cash flow, net debt leverage, AI adoption, and infrastructure spending data.
Watch for BSY to reclaim and hold the $36.15 to $37.26 resistance area and the 200-day average near $37.08 with stronger volume while ARR growth, net retention, and full-year guidance remain intact. A later move above $40 would provide additional confirmation.
A failed breakout that closes back below $33.70 should reduce confidence. The setup is weaker if the failure comes with lower ARR guidance, a drop in free cash flow, or a rise in net debt leverage.
If BSY tests $31.90 to $32.00 without a new guide-down, compare the price with updated EPS, FCF, net debt leverage, retention, and competitor performance before treating the move as a range opportunity.
Do not assume a lower price is value if the decline reflects slower infrastructure demand, a cyber incident, weak AI monetization, acquisition problems, or a sustained break below the 52-week low of $28.08.
Track ARR growth, account retention, dollar-based net retention, subscription revenue, constant-currency growth, AOI less operating SBC margin, free cash flow, net debt leverage, acquisitions, buybacks, and AI product adoption. Q2 2026 results are due August 6, 2026.
Position sizing should reflect valuation compression risk, convertible notes, foreign exchange exposure, cybersecurity risk, the short-interest position, and the fact that Class A holders control a majority of voting power.
Investment research summary
Bentley provides software used by engineers, architects, constructors, geospatial professionals, and infrastructure owners to design, build, simulate, and operate physical assets. Customers pay for reliable domain workflows, interoperability, long-lived project data, and software that reduces the cost of infrastructure decisions. In Q1 2026, subscription revenue represented about 93% of total revenue.
The moat is strongest in domain knowledge, connected applications, interoperability, customer data, training, and workflow switching costs. Bentley reports a 99% account retention rate and a 109% dollar-based net retention rate for Q1 2026. Network effects are limited, but a broad portfolio and installed base make replacement harder than a simple feature comparison suggests.
The thesis can fail if infrastructure budgets weaken, customers delay projects, Autodesk, Trimble, Hexagon, or AVEVA take share, cyber or cloud failures damage trust, AI reduces the value of traditional engineering applications, or acquisitions and debt consume more value than they create. Foreign exchange matters because about 47% of TTM revenue came from outside the Americas.
Greg Bentley has been President since 1996 and Executive Chair since 2024. Nicholas Cumins became CEO in 2024, and Werner Andre is CFO. The company repaid a $678 million convertible note at maturity in Q1 2026, cut net debt by $134 million, and lowered net debt leverage from 2.1x to 1.9x adjusted EBITDA. The governance trade-off is that Class A holders control a majority of voting power.
Infrastructure renewal, public works, utilities, resource development, digital twins, and AI-assisted engineering provide a long-term demand backdrop. Resources, led by Seequent, is Bentley Systems second-largest sector and a fast-growing driver. The key question is whether AI expands software consumption through agentic API usage or mainly changes the product cost structure.
At $35.44, BSY traded near 40.6x TTM EPS, 24.96x forward earnings, 22.6x trailing free cash flow, 7.13x sales, and 0.79% dividend yield. The three-year base case near $42 to $50 assumes adjusted EPS near the consensus path of roughly $1.38 in 2026 and a mid-20s forward multiple. That is possible, but it is not a low-expectation setup, so the margin of safety depends on execution and multiple stability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $35.44 close on July 31, 2026, after-hours $35.48 | StockAnalysis BSY overview and historical price data | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $11.10 billion reported, verified as $35.44 x 313.11 million shares; 0.03% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis BSY overview | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 313.11 million shares outstanding, down 1.06% year over year; float 157.50 million | StockAnalysis BSY statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and subscriptions | $424.2 million total revenue, up 14.5%; subscription revenue represented about 93% of total and grew 14.7% | Bentley Systems Q1 2026 earnings call transcript via StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 ARR and retention | $1.4945 billion ARR, 11.5% constant-currency ARR growth, 99% account retention, and 109% dollar-based net revenue retention | Bentley Systems Q1 2026 earnings call transcript and StockAnalysis KPIs | August 3, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue and net income | $1.502 billion revenue, up 11.0%; $277.9 million net income, up 18.4% | StockAnalysis BSY financials (annual history) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | $491.7 million, up about 13% year over year | StockAnalysis BSY financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | $1.685 billion to $1.715 billion revenue, 10.5% to 12.5% ARR growth, and $500 million to $570 million free cash flow, reaffirmed on the Q1 2026 call | Bentley Systems Q1 2026 earnings call transcript | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $0.87, book value per share $3.92, free cash flow per share $1.57, annual dividend $0.28 | StockAnalysis BSY statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | 17 analysts, consensus Buy, average price target $44.80, range $40 to $61; FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus near $1.38 | StockAnalysis BSY forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical reference | RSI(14) 61.95, 50-day SMA $31.93, 200-day SMA $37.08, snapshot dated August 2, 2026 | StockAnalysis BSY statistics | August 3, 2026 |
This BSY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 6, 2026, and market prices, technical indicators, financial statements, guidance, and company risks can change. Review primary filings and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
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