Bentley Systems, Incorporated research snapshot
BSY AI stock analysis currently reads Bentley Systems as a durable infrastructure engineering software business with a high recurring-revenue base, strong account retention, and a credible AI and digital-twin opportunity. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, BSY closed at $31.67 on July 10 and its calculated market capitalization was about $9.92 billion using 313.11 million shares. First-quarter 2026 revenue grew 14.5% to $424.2 million and ARR reached $1.4945 billion, but the stock still traded near 36.0x trailing earnings and carried more debt than cash. The BSY AI stock analysis therefore points to a good business with a valuation-sensitive return path, not a fixed price prediction.
Current price
$31.67 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$9.92 billion calculated, $9.91 billion reported reference
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
High-quality infrastructure software compounder with valuation and leverage watch
Trend status
Neutral and range-bound: price is close to the 50-day and 200-day averages, while daily momentum is mixed
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Bentley sells infrastructure engineering software embedded in design, construction, and operations workflows. About 93% of 2025 revenue was recurring, and Q1 2026 recurring metrics remained strong. | High |
| Moat | The moat is built from domain expertise, connected applications, interoperability, customer data and workflows, account relationships, and a broad infrastructure lifecycle portfolio. | High |
| Management | The Bentley family retains voting control, while CEO Nicholas Cumins has led the company since 2024 after serving as COO and Chief Product Officer. Capital allocation has favored acquisitions, buybacks, dividends, and product investment. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | 2025 revenue rose 11.0% to $1.502 billion, net income rose 18.4% to $277.9 million, and free cash flow reached $520.2 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 14.5% and ARR grew 11.5% in constant currency. | High |
| Valuation | At $31.67, BSY traded near 36.0x TTM EPS, 21.3x trailing free cash flow, 6.37x sales, and 8.08x book value. The price is lower than its prior peak, but it is not a low-expectation valuation. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 11 technical snapshot showed RSI near 49.7, a 50-day simple average near $31.94, and a 200-day simple average near $31.32. The daily signal was neutral, so price confirmation is still missing. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are infrastructure budget pressure, competition, cyber or cloud outages, AI execution, acquisition integration, foreign exchange, debt, dilution, and concentrated voting control. | High |
| AI confidence | Confidence is high for reported facts and calculations, but medium for future stock-price paths and the eventual economic value of AI features. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BSY has a strong recurring software model, but the investment case requires continued ARR growth and enough free cash flow to support acquisitions, debt reduction, and shareholder returns. | Medium |
BSY AI stock forecast
The BSY AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the July 10 price of $31.67 and TTM diluted EPS of $0.88. The audited model produced $65.10 in the bullish case, $43.30 in the base case, and $25.50 in the bearish case. These are scenario outputs, not promised targets, and they are sensitive to both earnings growth and the multiple investors are willing to pay.
$60 to $70
More likely if ARR growth stays near or above the 10.5% to 12.5% outlook, AI agents and asset analytics create measurable demand, margins improve, acquisitions add value, debt falls, and the market supports a premium software multiple.
$40 to $47
More likely if 2026 revenue lands near the $1.685 billion to $1.715 billion outlook, recurring revenue retention remains healthy, free cash flow stays near the $500 million to $570 million range, and BSY holds a mid-30s earnings multiple.
$23 to $28
More likely if infrastructure spending slows, ARR growth moves toward mid-single digits, AI features do not produce incremental revenue, acquisitions dilute returns, leverage remains high, or the market re-rates BSY toward a mid-20s earnings multiple.
BSY AI technical analysis
BSY AI technical analysis is neutral as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff. BSY closed at $31.67 on July 10, while an Investing.com snapshot dated July 11 showed the price near the 50-day simple moving average of $31.94 and above the 200-day average of $31.32. RSI was near 49.7 and the daily signal was neutral. These dated levels describe market structure, not a reliable forecast.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.67 | StockAnalysis and Investing.com historical-price references for the July 10, 2026 close. |
| Immediate support | $31.10 to $31.30 | Near the July 10 session low and the Investing.com classic pivot support area. A close below this zone would weaken the short-term range. |
| Deeper support | $30.50 to $30.60 | Near the recent July trading low and the cited 52-week low of about $30.52. |
| Near resistance | $32.40 to $32.60 | Near the July 10 intraday high of $32.43 and recent early-July price action. |
| Higher resistance | $33.75 to $35.25 | A prior July swing area that would require stronger volume and improving estimates to clear with conviction. |
| Moving averages | 50-day SMA $31.94, 200-day SMA $31.32 | Investing.com snapshot dated July 11, 2026. The price was below the 50-day average and above the 200-day average. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 49.664, MACD -0.13 | The same Investing.com snapshot classified RSI as neutral and MACD as sell. Indicator conventions vary by provider. |
| Volume and volatility | 1.36 million shares on July 10 versus about 2.65 million average daily volume; ATR(14) 0.3583 | Volume and ATR are dated references. A breakout with materially stronger participation would carry more technical weight. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $30.52 | A durable break below the cited 52-week low would invalidate the current range framework and require a fresh earnings and balance-sheet review. |
BSY AI trading strategy
This BSY AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price confirmation with ARR growth, recurring-revenue retention, free cash flow, debt, AI adoption, and infrastructure spending data.
Watch for BSY to reclaim and hold the $32.40 to $32.60 resistance area with stronger volume while ARR growth, net retention, and full-year guidance remain intact. A later move above $33.75 would provide additional confirmation.
A failed breakout that closes back below $31.30 should reduce confidence. The setup is weaker if the failure comes with lower ARR guidance or a drop in free cash flow.
If BSY tests $30.50 to $30.60 without a new guide-down, compare the price with updated EPS, FCF, leverage, net retention, and competitor performance before treating the move as a range opportunity.
Do not assume a lower price is value if the decline reflects slower infrastructure demand, a cyber incident, weak AI monetization, acquisition problems, or a sustained break below $30.52.
Track ARR growth, account retention, dollar-based net retention, subscription revenue, constant-currency growth, AOI less operating SBC margin, free cash flow, net debt leverage, acquisitions, buybacks, and AI product adoption.
Position sizing should reflect valuation compression risk, convertible debt, foreign exchange exposure, cybersecurity risk, and the fact that Class A holders control a majority of voting power.
Investment research summary
Bentley provides software used by engineers, architects, constructors, geospatial professionals, and infrastructure owners to design, build, simulate, and operate physical assets. Customers pay for reliable domain workflows, interoperability, long-lived project data, and software that reduces the cost of infrastructure decisions. In 2025, about 93% of revenue was recurring.
The moat is strongest in domain knowledge, connected applications, interoperability, customer data, training, and workflow switching costs. Bentley reports a 99% account retention rate and 109% recurring-revenue dollar-based net retention rate for 2025. Network effects are limited, but a broad portfolio and installed base make replacement harder than a simple feature comparison suggests.
The thesis can fail if infrastructure budgets weaken, customers delay projects, Autodesk, Trimble, Hexagon, or AVEVA take share, cyber or cloud failures damage trust, AI reduces the value of traditional engineering applications, or acquisitions and debt consume more value than they create. Foreign exchange matters because about 59% of 2025 revenue came from outside the United States.
Greg Bentley has been President since 1996 and Executive Chair since 2024. Nicholas Cumins became CEO in 2024 after serving as COO and Chief Product Officer. The company has a long record of programmatic acquisitions, share repurchases, dividends, and product investment. The governance trade-off is that Class A holders controlled about 53.5% of voting power at the end of 2025.
Infrastructure renewal, public works, utilities, resource development, digital twins, and AI-assisted engineering provide a long-term demand backdrop. Bentley is positioned inside the design-to-operations software layer, but the market is competitive and customer spending follows long-cycle infrastructure programs. The key question is whether AI expands software consumption or mainly changes the product cost structure.
At $31.67, BSY traded near 36.0x TTM EPS, 21.3x trailing free cash flow, 6.37x sales, and 0.88% dividend yield. The three-year base case near $43.30 assumes 12% annual EPS growth and a 35x exit multiple. That is possible, but it is not a low-expectation setup, so the margin of safety depends on execution and multiple stability.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $31.67 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis BSY financials and Investing.com historical data | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $9.92 billion calculated from $31.67 x 313.11 million shares, versus a $9.91 billion reported reference; 0.06% deviation | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis BSY overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | StockAnalysis reported 313.11 million shares; the SEC 2025 10-K stated 11.54 million Class A and 291.36 million Class B shares as of February 19, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Bentley Systems 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and subscriptions | $424.2 million total revenue, up 14.5%; subscription revenue $392.5 million, up 14.7% | Bentley Systems Q1 2026 earnings release filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 ARR and retention | $1.4945 billion ARR, 11.5% constant-currency ARR growth, and 109% dollar-based net retention | Bentley Systems Q1 2026 earnings release filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 revenue and net income | $1.502 billion revenue and $277.9 million net income attributable to Bentley Systems | SEC 2025 Form 10-K and Macrotrends annual history | July 12, 2026 |
| 2025 free cash flow | $520.2 million, compared with $421.2 million in 2024 | Bentley Systems 2025 full-year results release | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 company outlook | $1.685 billion to $1.715 billion revenue, 10.5% to 12.5% ARR growth, and $500 million to $570 million free cash flow | Bentley Systems 2025 full-year results release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM EPS $0.88, book value per share $3.92, free cash flow per share $1.49, annual dividend $0.28 | StockAnalysis BSY statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference | RSI(14) 49.664, 50-day SMA $31.94, 200-day SMA $31.32, ATR(14) 0.3583, snapshot dated July 11, 2026 | Investing.com BSY technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
This BSY AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available data and assumptions that may be wrong. Market prices, technical indicators, financial statements, guidance, and company risks can change. Review primary filings and consult a qualified professional before making investment decisions.
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