Popular, Inc. research snapshot
BPOP AI stock analysis currently reads Popular, Inc. as a scaled Puerto Rico banking franchise with a solid U.S. mainland presence, strong CET1 capital of 16.08%, rising tangible book value, and a bigger capital return program after a strong Q2 2026. The August 3, 2026 setup is constructive on business quality and shareholder returns, but not a simple bargain signal. At about $175.21, BPOP trades near its 52-week high of $176.59, around 11.9x TTM diluted EPS of about $14.80, and roughly 1.99x company-reported tangible book value of $87.94, after Q2 2026 diluted EPS of $4.35, up 41% year over year. The BPOP AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a single price promise, and treats NIM, credit costs, Puerto Rico public deposits, loan growth, buybacks, the dividend increase, the CEO transition, and regional bank multiples as the variables that matter most.
Current price
$175.21
Market cap
$11.19 billion verified market cap
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-quality Puerto Rico bank franchise with improving returns and a larger capital return program, offset by credit-cycle watch items and a leadership transition near 52-week highs
Trend status
Positive, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near 64 and the stock close to its 52-week high
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Popular earns spread income and fees as the largest bank in Puerto Rico by assets and deposits, with additional U.S. banking operations and relationship-driven lending and payments services. | High |
| Moat | Local deposit share, brand recognition in Puerto Rico, switching friction, underwriting data, branch and digital access, and regulatory licenses help the franchise, but banking remains rate competitive. | Medium-high |
| Management | The team has delivered disciplined execution, a strong Q2, and larger capital returns. Javier Ferrer retires as CEO on August 31, 2026 and CFO Jorge Garcia succeeds him in an orderly internal transition, which is a key-person watch item. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income was $833.2 million on diluted EPS of $12.30. Q2 2026 net income rose to $278.2 million with EPS of $4.35, up 41% year over year, NII of $693.4 million, and CET1 of 16.08%. | High |
| Valuation | At $175.21, BPOP screens near 11.9x TTM EPS, about 11x forward earnings, 1.75x common equity per share, roughly 1.99x tangible book value near $87.94, and a roughly 1.71% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | The chart is positive but near the top of its range, with price above the 50-day average near $162.88 and 200-day average near $138.69 while RSI is near 64.47 and the stock is close to its 52-week high near $176.59. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are the raised 65 to 80 basis point net charge-off guidance, new non-accrual commercial relationships, Puerto Rico economic and public deposit concentration, NIM compression, CRE stress, the CEO transition, and a lower multiple if regional banks sell off. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because filings and earnings tables are rich and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because a leveraged bank equity can move sharply on macro, credit, deposits, and local leadership news. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | BPOP has a clear franchise and strong capital, but the current price already discounts stronger earnings and higher capital returns, and requires stable credit, deposits, NIM, and a smooth CEO transition to justify further upside. | Medium |
BPOP AI stock forecast
The BPOP AI stock forecast is scenario-based because bank multiples, credit costs, and deposit mix can change quickly. Using the $175.21 price reference, TTM diluted EPS of about $14.80, a forward EPS estimate near $16.00, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $230 to $265 in a bull case, $170 to $205 in a base case, and $95 to $120 in a bear case before dividends. A stronger outcome needs EPS growth to continue, credit costs to stay within the 65 to 80 basis point guidance, deposits to remain stable, NIM to hold, buybacks to continue, the dividend increase to take effect, and the market to keep a low-to-mid-teens bank earnings multiple.
$230 to $265 before dividends
More likely if EPS keeps growing near high single digits to low double digits, NIM holds or expands, credit costs stay contained near the low end of guidance, the $1 billion buyback is deployed, the $0.90 dividend takes effect, Puerto Rico deposits remain stable, and investors assign about 13x forward EPS.
$170 to $205 before dividends
More likely if earnings grow modestly, credit remains within the 65 to 80 basis point guidance, NIM is stable rather than expanding, the CEO transition goes smoothly, and the stock settles near 11x to 12x forward earnings after the run to new highs.
$95 to $120 before dividends
More likely if credit costs run above guidance, public deposits fall below the $20 billion level, NIM compresses, loan growth stalls, capital return slows, the leadership transition causes execution drift, or regional banks are valued closer to high-single-digit PE multiples.
BPOP AI technical analysis
BPOP AI technical analysis is positive but near the top of its range as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis daily data, last checked August 2, 2026, showed a July 31, 2026 close of $175.21, a 50-day moving average near $162.88, a 200-day moving average near $138.69, RSI near 64.47, and 20-day average volume near 515,000 shares. The stock was close to its 52-week high near $176.59, so risk control matters more than chasing a single print.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $175.21 | StockAnalysis listed the July 31, 2026 close at $175.21, with the page last checked on August 2, 2026. |
| Immediate support | $168 to $171 | This zone brackets the post-earnings base built after the July 23, 2026 Q2 report and is the first support area after the advance into new highs. |
| Deeper support | $160 to $164 | This range overlaps the 50-day moving average near $162.88 and would test whether the intermediate uptrend remains intact. |
| Major support | $136 to $140 | This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $138.69 and marks the larger trend structure from the 2025 and 2026 advance. |
| Near resistance | $176 to $180 | The stock touched a 52-week high near $176.59 on July 31, 2026, so this zone needs earnings and deposit confirmation rather than only momentum. |
| Upper resistance | $200 to $215 | This area aligns with the high end of post-Q2 analyst price targets, including Benchmark at $214, and needs continued EPS growth plus a stronger bank multiple. |
| Moving averages | 50-day near $162.88, 200-day near $138.69 | Price above both averages confirms positive trend structure, but distance from the 200-day average keeps pullback risk alive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 64.47 | Momentum is constructive and climbing toward overbought, so a new entry framework should wait for either a confirmed breakout above $176.59 or a controlled pullback. |
| Volume | 20-day average near 515,000 shares | Volume should be watched around earnings because BPOP can gap on NIM, deposits, credit, capital return, and leadership transition updates; the next report is estimated for October 22, 2026. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $108.74 to $176.59, beta 0.62 | The wide annual range shows BPOP can reprice quickly when regional bank sentiment, rates, or Puerto Rico deposit news changes. |
| Invalidation | Close below $163, then below $139 | A sustained break below the 50-day average near $162.88 would weaken the breakout. A break below the 200-day average near $138.69 would challenge the larger trend. |
BPOP AI trading strategy
The BPOP AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with EPS, NIM, credit costs, deposits, tangible book value, CET1, buybacks, the dividend increase, and regional bank sentiment.
Watch for BPOP to hold above the $168 to $171 support zone and break above the $176 to $180 resistance zone with earnings confirming stable credit, stable deposits, NIM strength, and continued capital return.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the 50-day average near $163 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher credit costs, weaker NIM, or slower buybacks.
If BPOP pulls back toward the $160 to $164 50-day zone or the $136 to $140 200-day zone while credit and deposits remain stable, compare the lower price with tangible book value near $87.94, the planned $0.90 dividend, CET1 near 16.08%, and forward EPS near $16.00.
Do not treat a lower price as attractive if nonperforming loans, public deposit outflows, CRE exposure, NIM deterioration, or management transition issues worsen at the same time.
Track NII, NIM, average deposits, Puerto Rico public deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs against the 65 to 80 basis point guidance, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, ROTCE, share repurchase pace, and leadership transition updates.
Position sizing should reflect that BPOP is a leveraged bank with geographic concentration and a CEO transition, not a high-certainty compounding business with unlimited pricing power.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Popular for deposit safekeeping, payments, consumer and commercial lending, mortgages, auto finance, and related banking services. The core franchise is Puerto Rico banking leadership, supplemented by Popular Bank operations in selected U.S. markets and fee income from customer relationships.
The moat comes from local deposit relationships, brand presence in Puerto Rico, branch and digital convenience, switching friction, underwriting history, and regulatory licenses. It is meaningful in the home market, but not absolute, because customers can still compare rates, credit terms, service quality, and digital alternatives.
The thesis fails if credit costs run above the 65 to 80 basis point guidance, Puerto Rico public deposits fall below the $20 billion level, NIM compresses under funding pressure, the CEO transition creates execution drift, capital return is cut, or investors decide a concentrated island franchise does not deserve a premium multiple after the rally.
Javier Ferrer will retire as CEO on August 31, 2026, with CFO Jorge Garcia set to succeed him, CRO Lidio Soriano moving to CFO, and Luis Sousa becoming CRO. The succession is orderly and internal, but it is still a key-person watch item. In Q2 2026 Popular repurchased 833,369 shares for $125 million, completed the prior $500 million authorization, announced a new $1 billion repurchase authorization, and planned a 20% dividend increase to $0.90 per quarter from Q4 2026.
Regional and market-leading local banks remain central to deposit gathering, commercial credit, consumer finance, and payments. The offsets are deposit migration, fintech competition, rate sensitivity, regulatory capital scrutiny, and higher attention to credit after prior bank stress episodes.
At $175.21, BPOP prices in strong recent earnings, a higher capital return program, and an improving ROTCE near 17%. Margin of safety improves if EPS keeps compounding without credit slippage, or if the stock falls closer to base-case levels while deposits, tangible book value near $87.94, and CET1 near 16.08% remain sound.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $175.21 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis BPOP overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Verified market cap | $11.19 billion using $175.21 price and 63.87 million shares | StockAnalysis BPOP statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 63.87 million common shares, down 6.49% year over year, with float of 62.05 million | StockAnalysis BPOP statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net income and EPS | $278.2 million net income and $4.35 diluted EPS, up 41% year over year | Popular Q2 2026 earnings release and Business Wire | July 23, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 NII and NIM | $693.4 million net interest income and 3.66% NIM, up 9.8% year over year | Popular Q2 2026 earnings release and Zacks summary | July 23, 2026 |
| Capital and tangible book | CET1 16.08%, common equity per share $100.38, tangible book value per share $87.94 at June 30, 2026 | Popular Q2 2026 earnings release | July 23, 2026 |
| Balance sheet scale | Total assets $78.97 billion, deposits $70.2 billion, and loans held in portfolio $39.7 billion at June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis BPOP balance sheet and Q2 earnings release | July 29, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income and EPS | $833.2 million net income and $12.30 diluted EPS | StockAnalysis BPOP income statement and Popular Q4 2025 release | July 29, 2026 |
| Credit metrics Q2 2026 | NPL ratio 1.04%, net charge-off ratio 1.05% or 33 basis points excluding a $71 million telecom charge-off, ACL to NPL ratio 190%, full-year net charge-off guidance 65 to 80 basis points | Popular Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| TTM earnings and valuation | TTM diluted EPS about $14.80, PE about 11.9x, forward PE about 11x, P/TBV about 1.99x, dividend about $3.00 or 1.71% yield | StockAnalysis BPOP statistics and income statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital return Q2 2026 | Repurchased 833,369 shares for $125 million at an average of $150.36, completed the $500 million authorization, announced a new $1 billion authorization, and planned a 20% dividend increase to $0.90 per quarter from Q4 2026 | Popular Q2 2026 earnings release and Zacks summary | July 23, 2026 |
| Technical levels | 50-day MA $162.88, 200-day MA $138.69, RSI 64.47, 20-day average volume about 515,000, 52-week range $108.74 to $176.59 | StockAnalysis BPOP statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy average rating with a $194.30 average price target across 10 analysts, including post-Q2 raises to $214 at Benchmark, $207 at KBW, and $198 at Piper Sandler | StockAnalysis BPOP overview and TheFly | August 2, 2026 |
This BPOP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if rates, credit quality, deposits, Puerto Rico economic conditions, the leadership transition, regulation, or market multiples change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
