Is BPOP a buy according to AI stock analysis?

BPOP AI stock analysis does not label the stock an automatic buy because the price already reflects stronger regional bank sentiment, higher EPS, and solid capital ratios. The setup is more balanced: franchise quality and capital strength look attractive, but valuation near highs, overbought momentum, Puerto Rico concentration, credit sensitivity, and deposit mix keep investment certainty at medium.

What is the BPOP AI stock forecast?

The BPOP AI stock forecast uses scenarios instead of a single target price. The audited model points to roughly $220 to $250 in a bullish case, $155 to $175 in a base case, and $85 to $105 in a bear case before dividends, depending on EPS growth, NIM, credit quality, deposits, buybacks, and market multiples.

What technical levels matter for BPOP?

The key BPOP technical levels are support near $163 to $165, intermediate support near $152 to $156, major support near $133 to $136, and resistance near $171 to $174. These levels use Yahoo Finance data as of the July 12, 2026 cutoff, including a 50-day average near $155.38, a 200-day average near $135.18, and RSI near 72.95.

Can AI predict BPOP stock price?

No, AI cannot reliably predict stock prices. AI can organize current facts, compare scenarios, calculate valuation ranges, and flag risk variables, but BPOP can still move sharply on rates, credit losses, Puerto Rico deposits, regulation, and market sentiment.

How should I use this BPOP AI trading strategy?

Use this BPOP AI trading strategy as a research checklist, not as personal investment advice. A trend-following framework should require price strength plus earnings confirmation, while a mean-reversion framework should require stable deposits, credit quality, capital, and tangible book value before treating a pullback as attractive.

What could make the BPOP bullish case stronger?

The BPOP bullish case becomes stronger if EPS continues to grow, NIM holds above recent levels, credit costs stay controlled, public deposits remain stable, CET1 stays elevated, and capital return through dividends and buybacks continues without weakening the balance sheet.

What is the biggest risk in Popular Inc stock?

The biggest BPOP risk is that Puerto Rico concentration and the credit cycle disappoint at the same time. That combination could pressure earnings, tangible book value, capital flexibility, investor confidence, and the valuation multiple.

Popular, Inc. research snapshot

BPOP AI Stock Analysis

BPOP AI stock analysis currently reads Popular, Inc. as a scaled Puerto Rico banking franchise with a solid U.S. mainland presence, strong CET1 capital, rising tangible book value, and recent earnings momentum. The July 12, 2026 setup is constructive on business quality and capital return capacity, but not a simple bargain signal. At about $170.56, BPOP trades near a 52-week high, around 12.6x TTM EPS and about 2.0x tangible book value, after FY2025 diluted EPS of $12.30 and Q1 2026 EPS of $3.78. The BPOP AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a single price promise, and treats NIM, credit costs, Puerto Rico public deposits, loan growth, buybacks, and regional bank multiples as the variables that matter most.

Current price

$170.56

Market cap

$11.01 billion verified market cap

AI score

66 / 100

Rating

High-quality Puerto Rico bank franchise with strong capital, but valuation near cycle highs

Trend status

Positive and extended, above the 50-day and 200-day moving averages with RSI near overbought levels

Data cutoff (updated weekly)

July 12, 2026

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Research quality check

information Richness: A-level information richness. Popular has multi-decade SEC filings, detailed investor relations releases, audited 10-K and 10-Q data, company earnings tables, and broad bank-media coverage.
bias Check: The main AI research bias is over-crediting recent EPS growth and the regional bank rally while underweighting Puerto Rico economic concentration, public deposit sensitivity, credit migration, and the fact that the stock already sits near 52-week highs.
ai Confidence: High for FY2025 net income, Q1 2026 EPS, deposits, assets, share count, market-cap math, CET1, and tangible book value. Medium for forecast and technical levels because bank stocks can reprice quickly around rates, credit, deposit mix, and local macro news.
investment Certainty: Medium. The franchise is transparent, profitable, and well capitalized, but investment certainty is limited by financial leverage, geographic concentration, credit-cycle risk, and a valuation that already prices in a strong recovery.

Quick verdict table

Dimension	Conclusion	Confidence
Business quality	Popular earns spread income and fees as the largest bank in Puerto Rico by assets and deposits, with additional U.S. banking operations and relationship-driven lending and payments services.	High
Moat	Local deposit share, brand recognition in Puerto Rico, switching friction, underwriting data, branch and digital access, and regulatory licenses help the franchise, but banking remains rate competitive.	Medium-high
Management	Javier D. Ferrer and the team have emphasized disciplined execution, capital return through buybacks and dividends, and operating momentum. The main test is credit quality and deposit mix through the rate and credit cycle.	Medium-high
Financial trend	FY2025 net income was $833.2 million on diluted EPS of $12.30. Q1 2026 net income rose to $245.7 million with EPS of $3.78, NII of $670.2 million, and CET1 of 15.92%.	High
Valuation	At $170.56, BPOP screens near 12.6x TTM EPS, about 11.2x forward earnings, 1.75x common equity per share, about 2.0x tangible book, and a roughly 1.76% dividend yield.	High
Technical trend	The chart is constructive but extended, with price above the 50-day average near $155.38 and 200-day average near $135.18 while RSI is near 72.95.	Medium
Risk level	Main risks are Puerto Rico economic concentration, public deposit volatility, credit losses, NIM compression, CRE stress, regulatory capital, and a lower multiple if regional banks sell off.	Medium-high
AI confidence	Descriptive confidence is high because filings and earnings tables are rich and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower because a leveraged bank equity can move sharply on macro, credit, and local deposit news.	High data confidence
Investment certainty	BPOP has a clear franchise and strong capital, but the current price already discounts better earnings and requires stable credit, deposits, and NIM to justify further upside.	Medium

BPOP AI stock forecast

BPOP AI Stock Forecast Scenarios

The BPOP AI stock forecast is scenario-based because bank multiples and credit costs can change quickly. Using the $170.56 price reference, TTM EPS of $13.52, and the audited three-year model, the mechanical range points to about $238 in a bull case, $167 in a base case, and $93 in a bear case before dividends. A stronger outcome needs EPS growth to continue, credit costs to stay controlled, deposits to remain stable, NIM to hold, buybacks to continue, and the market to keep a low-to-mid teens bank earnings multiple.

Bullish case

$220 to $250 before dividends

More likely if EPS grows near high single digits, NIM holds or expands, credit costs stay contained, buybacks continue, Puerto Rico deposits remain stable, and investors assign about 14x forward EPS.

Base case

$155 to $175 before dividends

More likely if earnings grow modestly, credit remains manageable, NIM is stable rather than expanding, and the stock settles near a mid-teens to low-teens earnings multiple after the recent rally.

Bearish case

$85 to $105 before dividends

More likely if credit costs rise, public deposits leave, NIM compresses, loan growth stalls, capital return slows, or regional banks are valued closer to stressed tangible book and high-single-digit PE multiples.

BPOP AI technical analysis

BPOP AI Technical Analysis

BPOP AI technical analysis is positive but extended as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. Yahoo Finance daily data showed a July 10 close of $170.56, a 50-day moving average near $155.38, a 200-day moving average near $135.18, RSI near 72.95, and 20-day average volume near 619,000 shares. The stock was close to its 52-week high near $171.73, so risk control matters more than chasing a single print.

Level	Value	Why it matters
Current price	$170.56	Yahoo Finance listed the July 10, 2026 close at $170.56, with after-hours trading reported near $173.54 on StockAnalysis.
Immediate support	$163 to $165	This area brackets the 20-day moving average near $164.57 and is the first support zone after a fast advance into new highs.
Deeper support	$152 to $156	This range overlaps the 50-day moving average near $155.38 and would test whether the intermediate uptrend remains intact.
Major support	$133 to $136	This range overlaps the 200-day moving average near $135.18 and marks the larger trend structure from the 2025 and early 2026 advance.
Near resistance	$171 to $174	The stock was near the high end of its 52-week range around $171.73, so this zone needs earnings and deposit confirmation rather than only momentum.
Upper resistance	$220 to $250	This area aligns with the bullish scenario range and needs continued EPS growth plus a mid-teens bank earnings multiple.
Moving averages	50-day near $155.38, 200-day near $135.18	Price above both averages confirms positive trend structure, but distance from the 200-day average raises pullback risk.
Momentum	RSI near 72.95	Momentum is strong and overbought, so a new entry framework should wait for either a confirmed breakout or a controlled pullback.
Volume	20-day average near 619,000 shares	Volume should be watched around earnings because BPOP can gap on NIM, deposits, credit, capital, and buyback updates.
Volatility	52-week range $108.74 to $171.73	The wide annual range shows BPOP can reprice quickly when regional bank sentiment, rates, or Puerto Rico deposit news changes.
Invalidation	Close below $155, then below $135	A sustained break below the 50-day average would weaken the breakout. A break below the 200-day average would challenge the larger trend.

BPOP AI trading strategy

BPOP AI Trading Strategy Framework

The BPOP AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with EPS, NIM, credit costs, deposits, tangible book value, CET1, buybacks, and regional bank sentiment.

Trend-following setup

Watch for BPOP to hold above the $163 to $165 support zone and break above $171 to $174 with earnings confirming stable deposits, controlled charge-offs, NIM strength, and continued capital return.

A failed breakout followed by a close below $155 should reduce trend confidence, especially if management signals higher credit costs, weaker NIM, or lower buyback capacity.

Mean-reversion setup

If BPOP pulls back toward the $152 to $156 50-day zone or the $133 to $136 200-day zone while credit and deposits remain stable, compare the lower price with tangible book value near $84.98, CET1, dividend coverage, and TTM EPS.

Do not treat a lower price as attractive if nonperforming loans, public deposit outflows, CRE exposure, or NIM deterioration worsen at the same time.

Fundamental monitor

Track NII, NIM, average deposits, Puerto Rico public deposits, loan growth, net charge-offs, allowance coverage, CET1, tangible book value per share, efficiency, and share repurchase pace.

Position sizing should reflect that BPOP is a leveraged bank with geographic concentration, not a high-certainty compounding business with unlimited pricing power.

Investment research summary

Four-master Research Compression

Business essence

Customers pay Popular for deposit safekeeping, payments, consumer and commercial lending, mortgages, auto finance, and related banking services. The core franchise is Puerto Rico banking leadership, supplemented by Popular Bank operations in selected U.S. markets and fee income from customer relationships.

Moat

The moat comes from local deposit relationships, brand presence in Puerto Rico, branch and digital convenience, switching friction, underwriting history, and regulatory licenses. It is meaningful in the home market, but not absolute, because customers can still compare rates, credit terms, service quality, and digital alternatives.

Munger risk inversion

The thesis fails if Puerto Rico economic conditions weaken, public deposits leave quickly, credit costs rise faster than reserves, NIM compresses under funding pressure, capital return is cut, or investors decide a concentrated island franchise does not deserve a premium multiple after the rally.

Management

Javier D. Ferrer and the leadership team have framed the bank around operating discipline, capital strength, and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks. In Q1 2026 the company repurchased about $155 million of common stock and paid a $0.75 quarterly common dividend. The key question is whether credit and deposit discipline stay intact as capital return continues.

Industry trend

Regional and market-leading local banks remain central to deposit gathering, commercial credit, consumer finance, and payments. The offsets are deposit migration, fintech competition, rate sensitivity, regulatory capital scrutiny, and higher attention to credit after prior bank stress episodes.

Valuation and margin of safety

At $170.56, BPOP prices in strong recent earnings and capital strength. Margin of safety improves if EPS keeps compounding without credit slippage, or if the stock falls closer to base-case levels while deposits, tangible book value near $84.98, and CET1 near 15.9% remain sound.

Source-backed data

BPOP Data Table

Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.

Metric	Value	Source	Last verified
Current price	$170.56 close on July 10, 2026	Yahoo Finance BPOP daily chart	July 12, 2026
Verified market cap	$11.01 billion using $170.56 price and 64.54 million shares	StockAnalysis share count and local financial_rigor check	July 12, 2026
Shares outstanding	64.54 million common shares, with SEC EntityCommonStockSharesOutstanding of 64,537,709 as of May 5, 2026	SEC companyfacts and StockAnalysis overview	July 12, 2026
FY2025 net income	$833.2 million	Popular Q4 2025 earnings release and SEC 10-K	July 12, 2026
FY2025 diluted EPS	$12.30	Popular Q4 2025 earnings release and SEC 10-K	July 12, 2026
Q1 2026 net income and EPS	$245.7 million net income and $3.78 diluted EPS	Popular Q1 2026 earnings release and SEC 10-Q	July 12, 2026
Q1 2026 NII and NIM	$670.2 million net interest income and 3.66% NIM	Popular Q1 2026 earnings release	July 12, 2026
Capital and tangible book	CET1 15.92%, common equity per share $97.27, tangible book value per share $84.98 at March 31, 2026	Popular Q1 2026 earnings release	July 12, 2026
Balance sheet scale	Total assets $76.13 billion and deposits $67.61 billion at March 31, 2026	SEC 10-Q companyfacts	July 12, 2026
TTM earnings and valuation	TTM EPS about $13.52, PE about 12.6x, forward PE about 11.2x, dividend about $3.00 or 1.76% yield	StockAnalysis BPOP statistics and local valuation check	July 12, 2026
Technical levels	50-day MA $155.38, 200-day MA $135.18, RSI 72.95, 20-day average volume about 619,000	Yahoo Finance BPOP daily chart calculations	July 12, 2026
Capital return Q1 2026	Repurchased 1,155,398 shares for $155.2 million at an average $134.31, plus $0.75 quarterly common dividend	Popular Q1 2026 earnings release	July 12, 2026

Frequently Asked Questions

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This BPOP AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if rates, credit quality, deposits, Puerto Rico economic conditions, regulation, or market multiples change.