Banco Macro S.A. research snapshot
BMA AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Banco Macro as a well-capitalized Argentine private bank whose reported earnings are recovering while the credit cycle is turning. The stock closed at $92.76 on August 3, 2026, up 0.86 or 0.94% from the $91.90 close on July 31, carrying a market capitalization near $6.21 billion. Q1 2026 net income of Ps.139.8 billion rose 28% quarter over quarter and 131% year over year, with return on average equity of 10% and a Basel III capital adequacy ratio of 32.4%, while the non-performing financing ratio ticked up to 5.40% and coverage stayed high at 109.79%. The BMA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges rather than a promised price because earnings depend on Argentina policy, interest rates, inflation, peso stability, credit quality, and the August 26, 2026 results. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$92.76 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 0.86 or 0.94% from the $91.90 July 31 close, after opening at $91.90 and trading in a session range near $91.78 to $93.84, with after-hours trading unchanged at $92.76
Market cap
$6.21 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 market close, matching $92.76 times approximately 66.9 million ADR-equivalent shares, with the FY2025 Form 20-F reporting 628,154,631 Class B shares and 11,235,670 Class A shares outstanding
AI score
70 / 100
Rating
Well-capitalized Argentine private bank with a recovering earnings trend, balanced by elevated macro, inflation, currency, and credit-cycle risk
Trend status
Short-term price action sits near the 50-day moving average around $91.07 and above the 200-day average near $83.82; the broader trend depends on Argentina macro conditions and the August 26, 2026 earnings release
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Banco Macro earns primarily from net interest income on deposits and loans, fee income from banking services, treasury and FX operations, and insurance and brokerage, serving 6.30 million retail customers and over 195,916 corporate customers across 23 of Argentina’s 24 provinces. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on banking licenses, deposit market share in interior Argentina of roughly 7.9% in private-sector deposits, the Macro brand, a 420-branch network, client relationships, and regulatory capital. It is a franchise moat, not a technological network effect, and digital competitors can reduce switching friction over time. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Juan Martín Parma leads Banco Macro with CFO Jorge Francisco Scarinci and a long-tenured team, and the controlling shareholders hold a significant ownership stake. Management is pursuing digital expansion through the Personal Pay wallet and the Banco Sáenz acquisition while maintaining conservative provisioning and a strong capital position. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 net income was Ps.289.5 billion on revenue of Ps.4.07 trillion under the FY2025 Form 20-F, and Q1 2026 net income of Ps.139.8 billion rose 28% quarter over quarter and 131% year over year with ROAE of 10%, showing an improving trend while provisions and restructuring costs remain elevated. | High |
| Valuation | At $92.76, the stock trades at a trailing PE of 35.18 and a forward PE of 16.17 per StockAnalysis.com. The stock trades well above its book value on the aggregator’s distorted USD translation, and near a reasonable multiple only if normalized dollar earnings recover as forecast. | Medium |
| Technical trend | BMA closed at $92.76 on August 3, 2026, just above its 50-day moving average near $91.07 and its 20-day average near $92.09, and above the 200-day moving average near $83.82, with 14-day RSI near 51.68 on StockAnalysis.com statistics. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high because Argentina macro instability, inflation near the 28% guidance assumption, high interest rates, peso depreciation, credit losses, regulatory changes, competition, and sovereign risk can change the earnings and valuation outlook quickly. | High |
| AI confidence | High confidence for disclosed financials, capital ratios, share structure, the $92.76 close, and the $6.21 billion market cap verified by calculation. Medium confidence for forward earnings and valuation scenarios because the dollar translation, macro trajectory, and investor sentiment cannot be calculated from filings. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is below data confidence. The franchise quality, capital position, and recovering earnings trend are real, but the margin of safety depends on credit normalization, margin stability, Argentina macro stability, dividend policy, and the ability to generate consistent dollar returns. | Medium-low |
BMA AI stock forecast
The BMA AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges based on current data, not a guaranteed target. Reported dollar earnings are distorted by Argentina inflation accounting and exchange rate effects, so the scenarios below depend on credit normalization, net interest margin trends, fee income, expense control, capital allocation, the August 26, 2026 results, and the evolution of Argentina macro conditions. Analyst targets from StockAnalysis.com range from a low of $79.68 to a high of $142.20 with a consensus average of $114.18.
$120 to $145
More likely if Argentina sustains disinflation near the ~28% assumption, the peso remains stable, credit demand keeps recovering in pesos and dollars, NPLs peak and provisions normalize, net interest margins hold above the 23% to 25% area, and investors assign a higher multiple to normalized earnings toward the $142.20 high analyst target.
$95 to $120
More likely if Argentina continues gradual normalization, Q2 2026 results confirm the trend, earnings recover modestly as provisions decline, loan growth tracks the 42% nominal guidance, and the stock trends toward the $114.18 consensus average price target with a modest premium for normalized earnings power.
$65 to $90
More likely if inflation reaccelerates, the peso depreciates sharply, credit losses rise beyond the 5.40% non-performing ratio and 6.92% consumer NPL path, net interest margins compress, regulatory costs increase, the BCRA keeps dividend limits tight, or Argentina macro conditions deteriorate toward the $79.68 low analyst target and below.
BMA AI technical analysis
BMA AI technical analysis uses the August 3, 2026 NYSE close and publicly available technical data. The stock closed at $92.76 on August 3, just above the 50-day moving average near $91.07 and the 20-day average near $92.09 computed from the daily closing price history, and above the 200-day moving average near $83.82, with 14-day RSI near 51.68 on StockAnalysis.com statistics. The 52-week range is $38.30 to $106.15. Because this page does not request live market data, traders should confirm all levels on a real-time chart before making any decision.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $92.76 | NYSE close on August 3, 2026. Intraday levels should be verified on a live chart before acting. |
| Near support | $88 to $91 | This zone holds the July pullback lows around $88.12 to $89.11 and sits near the 50-day moving average around $91.07 and the 20-day average near $92.09. |
| Secondary support | $83.5 to $86 | A deeper support zone that lines up with the early June lows around $83.45 to $84.94 and the 200-day moving average near $83.82. Breaking this level would weaken the broader technical setup. |
| Near resistance | $95 to $98 | The July swing highs around $97.63 to $98.13. A confirmed close above this zone with volume would be a constructive technical development. |
| Higher resistance | $101 to $103.5 | The June highs near $101.68 to $103.61 and the recent 52-week high context around $106.15. A move into this territory would need volume confirmation and fundamental support from earnings and Argentina macro conditions. |
| Momentum | RSI near 51.68 | Momentum indicators sit in neutral territory, meaning neither overbought nor oversold extremes were signaled in the latest available snapshot. |
| Volume | Average 20-day volume near 227,790 shares | BMA volume can vary significantly, with spikes on macro news and earnings dates such as the roughly 679,000 shares on May 27 and 788,000 on June 11. Low-volume breakouts or breakdowns are less reliable than those confirmed by higher participation. |
| Volatility | Elevated relative to developed-market bank stocks | Position sizing should account for normal daily moves that are wider than typical for US bank ADRs, plus gap risk from Argentina-specific events. |
| Invalidation | Close below $83.5 to $86 | A sustained break below this zone would challenge the recovery trend structure. A simultaneous deterioration in credit quality or macro conditions would be a stronger fundamental invalidation. |
BMA AI trading strategy
The BMA AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It combines price structure, technical levels, fundamental credit and capital data, and Argentina macro monitoring into a single framework that each investor should adapt to their own risk tolerance and time horizon.
Monitor whether BMA holds above the $88 to $91 support zone and can clear the $95 to $98 resistance area. A clean breakout above $98 with improving volume and corroborating improvement in credit indicators such as a lower non-performing ratio would support a trend-following approach.
A close below $88 to $91 or a failed breakout above $95 to $98 should reduce trend confidence. Fundamental deterioration in credit quality, earnings, or capital ratios would be a stronger caution signal.
If BMA retraces toward the $88 to $91 support area or the $83.5 to $86 secondary support without a fundamental thesis break, compare the lower risk premium with updated credit data, net interest margin trends, and Argentina macro conditions.
Do not treat price weakness as automatic value. Rising NPLs, higher provisions, regulatory changes, dividend policy shifts, or renewed macro instability could make lower prices a trap rather than an opportunity.
Track the August 26, 2026 earnings release, quarterly net income, NPL ratio, coverage ratio, net interest margin, efficiency ratio, capital adequacy ratio, loan growth, deposit trends, dividend decisions, and Argentina inflation, rates, and currency data.
Lower the rating if credit indicators deteriorate, margins compress, regulatory costs rise, dividends stay restricted, or the stock reaches resistance without fundamental improvement.
Investment research summary
Banco Macro is a retail and commercial bank in Argentina, earning net interest income on deposits and loans, fee income on banking and payment services, and revenue from treasury, insurance, and brokerage, serving millions of customers across the interior of the country. The Duan Yongping question is whether the bank can earn attractive risk-adjusted returns through a full Argentine economic cycle, not whether one quarter shows improvement.
The moat comes from banking licenses, the Macro brand recognition, the interior Argentina branch network, the deposit franchise at roughly 7.9% of private-sector deposits, client relationships, and regulatory capital. The Buffett question is whether the deposit and lending franchise remains as valuable when digital wallets such as Personal Pay, fintech competition, and regulatory changes reduce barriers.
The thesis can fail if inflation reignites or the peso weakens sharply, credit losses rise above the 5.40% non-performing path and the 6.92% consumer NPL trend, net interest margins compress from the 25.3% Q1 level, regulatory costs increase, or the macro improvement stalls. The short-side argument is that reported earnings growth is partly driven by inflation accounting, a 42.99% effective tax rate, and temporary rate effects rather than durable business improvement.
CEO Juan Martín Parma runs a team with long Argentine banking experience, and controlling shareholders hold meaningful ownership. Management is executing a digital push through Personal Pay and Banco Sáenz while keeping conservative provisioning. The management question is whether capital allocation, credit standards, dividend policy, and cost discipline serve all shareholders over the long term.
Argentina has a large underserved population for banking, credit, insurance, and digital financial services, and the low loan-to-GDP ratio relative to regional peers is a long-term opportunity. The Li Lu question is whether Banco Macro captures that growth profitably through cycles or remains a high-beta equity dependent on Argentina macro outcomes.
At $92.76 with a trailing PE of 35.18, a forward PE of 16.17, and a consensus price target of $114.18, BMA prices in a gradual normalization but not a strong earnings recovery. Margin of safety depends on the durability of credit improvement, interest margin stability, dividend policy, and Argentina macro conditions rather than a deep discount to intrinsic value.
For an unowned position, waiting for confirmation from the August 26, 2026 results, declining provisions, stable margins, and technical strength above the $95 to $98 resistance zone is more prudent than treating the current price as a low-risk entry. Existing holders can monitor the $83.5 to $86 invalidation zone and quarterly credit indicators.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest NYSE ADS quote | $92.76 close on August 3, 2026, up 0.94% from $91.90 | StockAnalysis.com BMA overview | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.21 billion reported by StockAnalysis.com at the August 3, 2026 close, verified as $92.76 x approximately 66.9 million ADR-equivalent shares | StockAnalysis.com BMA statistics and Pineify financial_rigor.py verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Share structure | FY2025 Form 20-F reports 628,154,631 Class B shares and 11,235,670 Class A shares outstanding; ADSs represent Class B common shares | Banco Macro FY2025 Form 20-F filed April 20, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 net operating income before expenses was Ps.4,069,112,853 thousand and net income attributable to controlling interests was Ps.289,494,680 thousand, matching StockAnalysis.com reported revenue of Ps.4.07 trillion and net income of Ps.289.5 billion | Banco Macro FY2025 Form 20-F and StockAnalysis.com BMA financials | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Net income of Ps.139.8 billion, up 28% quarter over quarter and 131% year over year; ROAE of 10% and ROAA of 2.4%; excluding restructuring expenses, net income of Ps.152.9 billion with ROAE of 10.9% | Banco Macro Q1 2026 earnings release of May 27, 2026 and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Net interest margin | Net interest margin including foreign exchange reached 25.3% in Q1 2026, versus 21.7% in Q4 2025 and 23.2% a year earlier; net interest income rose to Ps.975.2 billion | Banco Macro Q1 2026 earnings call highlights via Nasdaq | August 4, 2026 |
| Capital adequacy ratio | Excess capital of Ps.4.0 trillion, 32.4% Capital Adequacy Ratio under Basel III, and 32.4% Tier 1 ratio; liquid assets reached 78% of total deposits in Q1 2026 | Banco Macro Q1 2026 earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Credit quality indicators | Non-performing to total financing ratio of 5.40% and coverage ratio of 109.79% in Q1 2026; consumer NPLs of 6.92% versus 5.3% and commercial NPLs of 1.34% versus 0.68% sequentially | Banco Macro Q1 2026 earnings release and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Market share and franchise position | Banco Macro holds about 8.2% of private-sector loans and 7.9% of private-sector deposits as of March 2026, with 420 branches, 8,269 employees, 6.30 million retail customers, and over 195,916 corporate customers across 23 of 24 provinces | Banco Macro Q1 2026 earnings call and earnings release | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend and payout | Annual dividend of $4.70 per share with a yield of 5.07%, paid monthly with the last ex-dividend date of July 6, 2026; dividend growth of 116.16% year over year; BCRA rules limit dividend payments to 60% of announced results for the prior year | StockAnalysis.com BMA dividends and Q1 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst coverage | Consensus rating of Strong Buy from 9 analysts with an average price target of $114.18, a low of $79.68, a median of $117.28, and a high of $142.20 | StockAnalysis.com BMA forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical levels snapshot | 50-day moving average near $91.07, 200-day moving average near $83.82, 14-day RSI near 51.68, and 52-week range of $38.30 to $106.15 | StockAnalysis.com BMA statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Banco Sáenz acquisition | In March 2026, Banco Macro and Fintech Digital LLC signed a share purchase agreement to acquire 100% of Banco Sáenz S.A. at a price equal to its shareholders’ equity plus US$2 million, subject to Central Bank approval, as part of the digital ecosystem strategy around the Personal Pay wallet | Banco Macro press release of March 20, 2026 | August 4, 2026 |
This BMA AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast scenarios use available filings, market data, and assumptions as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff and may be wrong.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
