BillionToOne, Inc. research snapshot
BLLN AI stock analysis reads BillionToOne as a high-growth precision diagnostics company whose proprietary single-molecule counting platform serves prenatal and oncology markets, and whose revenue growth and profitability have both improved through 2026. The analysis is not a certain price prediction. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest verified close used here was $138.60 on July 31, market capitalization was about $6.38 billion, and the stock was trading above the $123.86 average analyst price target. The core question is whether the company can keep compounding fast enough to justify roughly 18 times trailing sales and roughly 177 to 257 times trailing earnings, given well-funded rivals including Natera and Guardant Health. This is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$138.60
Market cap
$6.38 billion
AI score
55 / 100
Rating
High-growth diagnostics with improving profitability, trading above the consensus price target
Trend status
Strong uptrend near all-time highs after a roughly 69% year-to-date gain
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | BillionToOne sells precision diagnostic tests built on a proprietary single-molecule counting platform. Revenue spans prenatal screening (UNITY Complete and the newer UNITY Confirm) and oncology liquid biopsy (Northstar Select and Northstar Response). Q1 FY2026 revenue grew about 84% year over year with a gross margin near 73%, and the company was GAAP profitable. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from proprietary molecular counting technology, growing clinical validation (including a peer-reviewed Northstar Response study across 12 tumor types), and a foothold in both prenatal and oncology testing. However, Natera, Guardant Health, GRAIL, and GeneDx have far larger resources, provider networks, and data sets. | Low-medium |
| Management | Founder-led scientific management: CEO Oguzhan Atay and CTO David Tsao built the platform, CFO Ross Taylor brings public company experience, and recent oncology hires such as new CMO Ethan Dmitrovsky strengthen the bench. Management raised FY2026 revenue guidance to $450 to $465 million. Key-person risk around the founders remains. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue reached $305.1 million, up about 100% year over year, and the company recorded its first full-year GAAP profit. Q1 FY2026 revenue was $108.39 million, up about 84%, with EPS of $0.34 versus consensus of $0.04. Cash stood at $537.5 million and FY2026 guidance was raised. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | BLLN trades at roughly 177 to 257 times trailing earnings depending on the EPS basis, about 18 times trailing and 14 times forward sales, about 12.6 times book, and about 241 times free cash flow. The stock is above the $123.86 average analyst target. By traditional measures the margin of safety is minimal or negative. | Medium |
| Technical trend | BLLN is in a strong uptrend and near all-time highs, trading above its 20-day ($128.38), 50-day ($112.26), and 100-day ($96.26) moving averages. The 14-day RSI near 66 and ADX above 33 indicate trending momentum, while the 14-day stochastic near 88% K points to short-term overbought conditions. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include an extreme valuation above the consensus target, intense competition from much larger players, reimbursement dependence, a short public history since the November 2025 IPO, share count growth of more than 200% year over year, and high volatility with 14-day historical volatility near 46%. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High confidence for reported financials, cash, guidance, analyst targets, and market-cap math. Medium confidence for forward scenarios because the August 5, 2026 Q2 report, reimbursement decisions, and competitive moves can shift the picture quickly. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low. The growth is real and the company is now profitable, but paying above the consensus price target for a stock with less than a year of public history means the investor is relying on years of continued share gains and margin expansion. | Low |
BLLN AI stock forecast
The BLLN AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $138.60 July 31 close used for this August 3, 2026 page. It does not claim AI can predict a specific future price. The next catalyst is Q2 FY2026 results on August 5, 2026, which falls after this cutoff. The bullish case requires sustained high growth, profitable margin expansion, and reimbursement wins. The base case assumes growth toward the raised $450 to $465 million guidance with a lower forward sales multiple. The bearish case assumes deceleration, competitive pressure, and a re-rating toward single-digit forward sales.
$155 to $185
More likely if Q2 FY2026 results beat, revenue growth stays above 40%, gross margin holds above 70%, UNITY Confirm and Northstar reimbursement expand, and the market keeps a 15 to 20 times forward sales multiple on the raised guidance.
$110 to $140
More likely if revenue grows toward the $450 to $465 million guidance (about 30% growth), margins hold, competition from Natera and Guardant caps market share, and forward sales compresses to 12 to 15 times. This range is consistent with the average analyst target of $123.86.
$70 to $95
More likely if growth decelerates below 25%, reimbursement expansion stalls, pricing competition intensifies, or the stock re-rates toward single-digit forward sales. This range aligns with the low analyst target of $90.
BLLN AI technical analysis
BLLN AI technical analysis starts from the $138.60 July 31, 2026 close used for this August 3 static page. Barchart public technical data showed the stock above its 20-day ($128.38), 50-day ($112.26), and 100-day ($96.26) moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 66 and 14-day ADX of 33.54 indicating a trending market. The 200-day moving average is not yet available because BLLN has traded only since its November 2025 IPO. The stock is near the all-time high of $140.21 set on July 31, so confirmation on a live chart matters before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $138.60 | Latest verified close on July 31, 2026, used as the reference for this page as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near resistance | $140 to $145 | The all-time high of $140.21 was touched on July 31. $145 is the highest analyst target and a natural breakout zone above round-number resistance. |
| Near support | $128 to $134 | The 20-day moving average area around $128.38 and recent pullback lows. Barchart data shows this as the first support during dips. |
| Secondary support | $112 to $116 | The 50-day moving average area around $112.26. A sustained close below this level would weaken the intermediate-term uptrend. |
| 20-day moving average | About $128.38 | Barchart showed BLLN above its 20-day MA, with the stock up about 15% over that period, indicating positive short-term momentum. |
| 50-day moving average | About $112.26 | The stock gained about 68% over the 50-day period, confirming a strong intermediate uptrend with the MA sloping upward. |
| 100-day moving average | About $96.26 | Public technical data showed the stock up more than 90% over the 100-day period, with the longer trend firmly higher. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 66, ADX 33.54 | The 14-day RSI near 66 is bullish but not yet extreme. ADX of 33.54 with +DI near 19.97 and -DI near 7.91 indicates a strong uptrend, while the 14-day stochastic near 88% K signals short-term overbought risk. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 620,000 shares | The 20-day average volume was about 620,000 shares. Volume should confirm any breakout above the $140.21 all-time high. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $7.38 | The 14-day ATR of about $7.38 (about 5.3% of price) means position sizing should allow for normal daily movement. Fourteen-day historical volatility was about 46.5%. |
| Invalidation | Close below $128, then $112 | A close below the 20-day MA around $128 weakens the near-term setup. A break below the 50-day MA around $112 would challenge the intermediate uptrend. |
BLLN AI trading strategy
The BLLN AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines business evidence from raised guidance and GAAP profitability, technical confirmation from moving averages and momentum indicators, position sizing based on daily ATR, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for BLLN to hold above the 20-day MA around $128 and break the $140.21 all-time high with expanding volume. The ADX above 30 supports trend continuation if these conditions hold.
A daily close below the 20-day MA area reduces confidence. Position size should account for the roughly 5.3% daily ATR range.
If BLLN pulls back toward the $128 to $134 support zone, or deeper toward the $112 to $116 area, wait for price stabilization and declining volume before considering entry. Do not buy the dip on momentum alone given the near-overbought stochastic.
Monitor Q2 FY2026 results on August 5, reimbursement developments, and competitive announcements before adding exposure.
Track Q2 FY2026 revenue and EPS on August 5, UNITY Confirm adoption, Northstar Select and Northstar Response reimbursement progress, insider transactions, and share count changes given the more than 200% year-over-year increase.
Reduce exposure if revenue growth slows below 25% year over year or if a major competitor launches a directly comparable test at a lower price.
Investment research summary
BillionToOne uses its proprietary single-molecule counting platform to sell precision diagnostic tests in two large markets: prenatal screening (UNITY Complete and UNITY Confirm) and oncology liquid biopsy (Northstar Select and Northstar Response). Customers pay per test, and repeat volume depends on clinical utility, provider ordering, and insurance coverage.
The technology moat comes from molecular counting at single-molecule resolution and a growing body of clinical evidence. But Natera, Guardant Health, GRAIL, and GeneDx all have far larger resources, established provider relationships, and broader test menus.
The thesis can fail if growth decelerates below the raised guidance, reimbursement for new tests stalls, pricing competition intensifies, additional dilution erodes per-share value given the large year-over-year share count increase, or the market simply decides that roughly 18 times trailing sales and a price above the consensus target are too much to pay.
Founder-led management with deep scientific credentials. CEO Atay and CTO Tsao built the platform, the CFO brings public company experience, and recent oncology leadership hires including CMO Dmitrovsky strengthen the bench. Key-person risk around the founders remains.
Precision diagnostics sits at the intersection of genomics, AI, and personalized medicine. Both the non-invasive prenatal testing market and the oncology liquid biopsy market are growing at double-digit rates. The long-term trend is favorable, but competition from well-capitalized incumbents is intense.
At roughly 18 times trailing sales, 14 times forward sales, and 177 to 257 times trailing earnings, the stock price already embeds years of aggressive growth and margin expansion, and it now trades above the $123.86 average analyst target. The margin of safety is minimal by traditional value metrics even though the business is improving.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BLLN price | $138.60 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance quote snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $6.38 billion, verified as $138.60 x 46.00M shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and Yahoo Finance shares data | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 revenue | $108.39 million, up about 84% year over year | BillionToOne Q1 FY2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2026 EPS | $0.34 GAAP versus consensus of $0.04 | BillionToOne Q1 FY2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $305.11 million, up about 100% year over year | stockanalysis.com financial statements (Fiscal.ai) | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $354.54 million | Yahoo Finance financial data | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $24.9 million | Yahoo Finance and stockanalysis.com statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $537.5 million (MRQ) | Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue guidance | Raised to $450 million to $465 million | BillionToOne Q1 FY2026 earnings release (May 6, 2026) | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 46.00 million shares; float about 24.1 million | stockanalysis.com statistics and Yahoo Finance key statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $61.96 to $140.21 | Yahoo Finance statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Moving averages and momentum | 20-day MA $128.38, 50-day MA $112.26, 100-day MA $96.26, 14-day RSI near 66, 14-day ADX 33.54 | Barchart technical analysis snapshots | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy (8 analysts), average target $123.86, range $90 to $145 | stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global and TipRanks) | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | TTM PE about 257x (Yahoo EPS basis) to 177x (weighted-share basis), 17.98x TTM PS, 12.60x PB, about 241x P/FCF from financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and Yahoo Finance | August 3, 2026 |
This BLLN AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong. BillionToOne has less than a year of public trading history since its November 2025 IPO, which reduces the reliability of long-term projections. Q2 FY2026 results are scheduled for August 5, 2026, after this data cutoff.
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