Booking Holdings Inc. research snapshot
BKNG AI stock analysis currently reads Booking Holdings as a high-quality online travel platform with strong free cash flow, global scale, direct traffic, and disciplined buybacks, and the technical setup has improved because the stock reclaimed both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. As of the July 31, 2026 close near $192.90, the business remains constructive on long-term quality, while risk comes from the Middle East conflict, foreign exchange, marketing efficiency, travel demand, and the market multiple assigned to an asset-light travel leader. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, and are the next major catalyst.
Current price
$192.90
Market cap
$149.47 billion
AI score
78 / 100
Rating
High-quality online travel compounder with an improved technical setup
Trend status
Constructive short-term trend, price above both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Booking Holdings converts global travel intent into high-margin agency, merchant, advertising, restaurant, and travel-service revenue across Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand habit, global hotel supply, direct traffic, paid-marketing data, partner relationships, payments, scale, and the Connected Trip roadmap. | High |
| Management | CEO Glenn Fogel has led the company since 2017, while capital allocation has focused on buybacks, dividends, travel product breadth, AI tools, and global reach, including $3.6 billion of repurchases in Q1 2026. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $26.917 billion, FY2025 net income was $5.404 billion, and Q1 2026 revenue grew 16% year over year to $5.532 billion with room nights up 6%. | High |
| Valuation | At about 25.3x TTM EPS, 16.5x TTM free cash flow per share, and 5.4x sales, BKNG is not cheap on sales but screens better on cash flow and forward earnings. | High |
| Technical trend | BKNG trades above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after reclaiming the 200-day line, with RSI near 60 and price still below the 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are the Middle East conflict, travel-cycle weakness, FX, regulation, Google and platform traffic dependence, marketing ROI pressure, and leverage. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The descriptive analysis is strongly supported by filings and market data. Forward price outcomes are less certain because they depend on growth, margins, buybacks, and valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Business certainty is stronger than entry-price certainty. A higher-confidence setup would require either a wider margin of safety or clearer proof that 2026 guidance can beat current expectations. | Medium |
BKNG AI stock forecast
The BKNG AI stock forecast should be read as scenario math, not a fixed price prediction. Using a July 31, 2026 close near $192.90, TTM diluted EPS near $7.62, and a three-year framework, the tested range spans a bearish area near $129, a base area near $213, and a bullish area near $301 before any future dilution or buyback effects. The range depends on room-night growth, merchant mix, marketing efficiency, adjusted EBITDA margin, capital returns, and the earnings multiple investors assign to a global online travel platform.
$285 to $315
More likely if the Middle East impact fades in the second half of 2026, room nights and gross bookings reaccelerate, revenue compounds near high single digits, adjusted EPS grows in the mid teens, direct traffic remains strong, and buybacks continue below intrinsic value.
$205 to $220
More likely if revenue grows around high single digits as guided, adjusted EBITDA grows slightly faster than revenue, marketing expense stays efficient, and the market holds BKNG near a 20x to 21x forward earnings multiple.
$125 to $135
More likely if the Middle East disruption persists, travel demand weakens, FX turns unfavorable, regulation or tax costs rise, Google traffic economics worsen, debt concerns increase, or the stock multiple compresses toward a mature travel-cyclical range.
BKNG AI technical analysis
BKNG AI technical analysis turned more constructive as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $192.90 on July 31, 2026, above both the 50-day moving average near $174.92 and the 200-day moving average near $185.44. That position marks a meaningful improvement from earlier in the year and points to a confirmed short-term recovery attempt rather than a failed one.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $192.90 | StockAnalysis reported the July 31, 2026 close at $192.90 after the 25-for-1 split. |
| Near support | $185 to $186 | The 200-day moving average near $185.44 is the first major support zone after the reclaim. |
| Deeper support | $174 to $175 | The 50-day moving average near $174.92 is the main pullback reference from current data. |
| Stress support | $150.14 | The 52-week low is a stress-level reference, not a forecast or target. |
| Near resistance | $195 to $200 | The $195 to $200 zone is the first overhead supply area between the current price and the 52-week high. |
| Upper resistance | $231.80 | The 52-week high marks the prior peak zone that would require stronger momentum and fundamentals to retest. |
| 50-day SMA | $174.92 | StockAnalysis daily moving-average reading as of the August 1, 2026 update. |
| 200-day SMA | $185.44 | StockAnalysis daily moving-average reading as of the August 1, 2026 update. |
| Momentum | RSI 60.04 | RSI is neutral-positive rather than overbought, leaving room for follow-through without an extended condition. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 5.57 million | Breakouts toward the $195 to $200 zone should be judged against volume and the August 4 earnings release. |
| Invalidation | Close below $185 | A sustained break back below the 200-day moving average would shift the setup from recovery to range-bound behavior. |
BKNG AI trading strategy
The BKNG AI trading strategy below is a rules framework for research and risk control, not personal financial advice. It combines technical confirmation with operating data from bookings, revenue, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, and management guidance, with Q2 2026 results due August 4, 2026.
Watch for BKNG to hold above the $185 to $186 area around the 200-day moving average, preferably with volume above the 20-day average and no deterioration in Q2 2026 guidance released August 4.
Define the invalidation level before entry. A failed reclaim of the 200-day moving average or a close back under $185 can be used as a rules-based exit trigger.
If BKNG pulls back toward the $174 to $175 50-day moving-average area without a thesis break, compare the price action against room-night growth, gross bookings, FX impact, marketing ROI, and guidance.
Do not average down just because BKNG is a high-quality company. A close below $174 changes the setup from pullback to trend damage.
Track the Q2 2026 report on August 4, FY2026 guidance, room nights, gross bookings, merchant mix, direct-channel mix, free cash flow, debt, dividends, and repurchase pace.
Refresh scenario ranges after earnings. A durable travel platform can still deliver weak stock returns if travel demand slows or the market pays a lower multiple.
Investment research summary
Booking Holdings sells distribution and transaction infrastructure for travel. Travelers pay for selection, convenience, trust, payments, and support, while hotels, homes, airlines, restaurants, and activity providers pay because Booking brings demand at global scale.
The moat comes from Booking.com brand habit, global supply density, reviews, payments, direct traffic, paid-marketing data, partner integrations, and scale economies. It is strong, but it depends on keeping traffic acquisition and partner economics attractive.
The thesis fails if the Middle East conflict persists and weakens demand, travel demand turns down, Google or other traffic channels capture more economics, regulation raises costs, merchant payment risk increases, debt limits flexibility, or buybacks happen at poor prices.
Glenn Fogel has led Booking Holdings since 2017 and Booking.com since 2019. Management has emphasized Connected Trip, AI-enabled personalization, alternative accommodations, U.S. growth, buybacks, and a dividend, with $3.6 billion of repurchases in Q1 2026 and low insider ownership limiting economic alignment.
Online travel remains a long-term digital shift, supported by cross-border tourism, mobile booking, alternative accommodations, flights, activities, and AI-assisted planning. The industry is still cyclical and exposed to geopolitical disruption, air capacity, fuel prices, regulation, and consumer budgets.
At about 25.3x TTM EPS, 18.0x forward EPS, and 16.5x TTM free cash flow per share, BKNG screens reasonably on cash flow and forward earnings. Margin of safety depends on sustained high-single-digit revenue growth, adjusted EPS growth, and disciplined buybacks.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKNG price | $192.90 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis BKNG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $149.47 billion reported, $149.47 billion calculated from $192.90 x 774.88 million shares | StockAnalysis and financial_rigor.py | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 774.88 million shares outstanding, down 4.01% year over year | StockAnalysis BKNG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Stock split | 25-for-1 stock split effected on April 2, 2026 | Booking Holdings Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $26.917 billion | Booking Holdings 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $5.404 billion | Booking Holdings 2025 Form 10-K, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and EPS | $27.687 billion TTM revenue, $7.62 TTM diluted EPS | StockAnalysis BKNG financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Free cash flow | $9.033 billion TTM free cash flow, $11.66 per share, 6.04% FCF yield | StockAnalysis BKNG cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $16.024 billion cash and equivalents, $3.015 billion short-term debt, $15.398 billion long-term debt at March 31, 2026 | Booking Holdings Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $5.532 billion revenue, $1.083 billion net income | Booking Holdings Q1 2026 earnings release, cross-checked with StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating metrics | 338 million room nights up 6%, $53.8 billion gross bookings up 15%, 16% revenue growth | Booking Holdings Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2026 outlook | FY2026 revenue growth guided to high single digits, adjusted EBITDA growth slightly faster than revenue, and adjusted EPS growth guided to low to mid teens | Booking Holdings Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Capital returns | $3.6 billion repurchased in Q1 2026, $18.2 billion remaining authorization, $0.42 quarterly dividend | Booking Holdings Q1 2026 earnings release | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE 25.32 TTM, forward PE 18.04, P/FCF 16.55, PS 5.40, EV/EBITDA 15.81 | StockAnalysis BKNG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical trend | 50-day SMA $174.92, 200-day SMA $185.44, RSI 60.04, 20-day average volume 5.57 million | StockAnalysis BKNG statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| 52-week range | $150.14 to $231.80 | StockAnalysis BKNG overview | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy with a $224.42 average price target across 38 analysts | StockAnalysis BKNG forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Management and insider ownership | Glenn Fogel is CEO and President; StockAnalysis reports insider ownership near 0.20% | Booking Holdings leadership page and StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
This page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold BKNG. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available data and may be wrong. Always verify current filings, prices, and your own risk constraints before making decisions.
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