Black Hills Corporation research snapshot
BKH AI stock analysis reads Black Hills Corporation as a diversified regulated electric and gas utility serving about 1.1 million electric and 1.1 million gas customers across eight states. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, BKH closed at $75.21 on July 10, 2026, after reaching a 52-week high of $78.69 during the year. The company benefits from regulated rate base growth, infrastructure investment demand, and a 3.84% dividend yield with a 19.59x TTM P/E. The analysis is constructive for a small regulated utility with rate-case execution risk, above-average debt leverage, and negative free cash flow from heavy capital spending. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$75.21
Market cap
$5.73 billion verified (Yahoo Finance: $5.726B)
AI score
69 / 100
Rating
Regulated utility with constructive trends, capex and rate risk
Trend status
Bullish near 52-week high at $78.69, all Barchart moving averages positive, constructive technical setup but extended near the top of the range
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Black Hills sells essential electricity and natural gas through regulated utilities across eight states, with rate-base growth driven by infrastructure replacement, grid hardening, and data-center demand. Revenue is recurring and regulated but depends on state-level rate case outcomes. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from franchise service territories, regulated cost-of-service returns, and difficult-to-replicate transmission and distribution infrastructure. The moat is narrow compared to large-cap peers because BKH operates in smaller, more concentrated service territories with less diversification. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management focuses on capital investment, rate case recovery, dividend growth, and operational efficiency. Key execution areas include the Cheyenne 1.8 GW project, Wyoming and Colorado rate cases, and managing the balance between debt financing and equity dilution. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is approximately $2.29 billion with net income of $288.3 million. Revenue is supported by regulated rate base growth, while capital expenditures drive negative free cash flow. The dividend has been maintained with a long history of consecutive payouts. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $75.21, BKH trades at 19.59x TTM EPS, 1.45x book value, and offers a 3.74% dividend yield. The three-year scenario model produced bearish near $65, base near $82, and bullish near $101, compared to the current price of $75.21. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart shows a 96% Buy overall with all short, medium, and long-term moving averages positive. The stock is near its 52-week high of $78.69 with support around $73.80 and resistance near $76.20 to $78.59 as of the July 2026 technical data check. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include above-average debt leverage (115.59% debt/equity), negative free cash flow from heavy capex, rate case disallowance or delay, weather-normalized demand, equity dilution from project financing, and the concentrated service territory exposure. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, SEC-filed financials, and audited calculations. Medium for future price ranges and technical timing because utility valuations depend on rate decisions, interest rates, and investor sector rotation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. BKH has a visible demand story from regulated infrastructure investment, but the current price near the 52-week high, negative FCF, and above-average debt leave less room for rate case or financing disappointment. | Medium-low |
BKH AI stock forecast
The BKH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $75.21 close, the TTM EPS of $3.84, and estimated long-term EPS growth consistent with regulated utility compounding. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $65, a base area near $82, and a bullish area near $101.
$95 to $105
More likely if BKH compounds EPS near 6%, obtains constructive rate case outcomes in Wyoming and Colorado, executes the Cheyenne 1.8 GW project on time and budget, manages financing without significant dilution, and the market values BKH around 22x forward earnings.
$78 to $86
More likely if EPS grows near 4%, rate outcomes are adequate but not generous, the dividend remains covered, capital spending proceeds on plan, and the market values BKH around 19x forward earnings.
$60 to $70
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, regulators limit recovery on major projects, costs overrun on the Cheyenne project, equity dilution accelerates from capital needs, or weather-normalized demand disappoints.
BKH AI technical analysis
BKH AI technical analysis is bullish but near the upper end of the range as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. BKH closed at $75.21 on July 10, 2026, near the $78.69 52-week high. Barchart technical indicators show a 96% Buy signal with all moving averages in positive alignment, but the stock is approaching resistance that may test momentum.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $75.21 | BKH closed at $75.21 on July 10, 2026, with a previous close of $73.28 and a day range of $73.37 to $75.77. |
| Near support | $73.80 | Barchart listed first support (S1) near $73.80 based on pivot point calculations after the July 10 close. |
| Secondary support | $72.38 | Barchart listed second support (S2) near $72.38, representing a deeper pullback level. |
| Structural support | $71.40 | Barchart listed third support (S3) near $71.40. A close below this level would weaken the current constructive setup. |
| Near resistance | $76.20 | Barchart listed first resistance (R1) near $76.20, representing the nearest obstacle for continued upside. |
| Secondary resistance | $77.18 to $78.59 | Barchart listed second and third resistance at $77.18 (R2) and $78.59 (R3), converging near the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high | $78.69 | BKH reported a 52-week high of $78.69. Breaking above this level on volume would be a significant technical event. |
| 52-week low | $55.79 | The 52-week low of $55.79 represents the lower bound of the trading range over the past year. |
| Momentum | 96% Buy on Barchart | Barchart composite indicator shows 96% Buy with all short-term (20-day), medium-term (50-day), and long-term (100/200-day) moving averages providing buy signals. |
| Volume | 795,960 vs ~1M average | Yahoo Finance reported volume of 795,960 against an average volume of about 1 million shares, suggesting slightly below-average participation. |
| Volatility | Beta of 0.70 | The 0.70 beta is typical for a regulated utility, indicating lower volatility than the broader market. However, rate case news or financing announcements can create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $71.40 | A decisive close below the $71.40 structural support would weaken the near-term bullish framework and shift attention toward the lower end of the trading range. |
BKH AI trading strategy
The BKH AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated gas and electric utility near a 52-week high. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, rate case calendars, Treasury yield trends, position sizing, and a predefined invalidation level.
Watch for BKH to hold above the $73.80 support level and break above the $78.69 52-week high on above-average volume. Confirmation should include constructive rate case updates from Wyoming and Colorado, stable or falling Treasury yields, and no adverse financing news.
A failed breakout followed by a close below $73.80, or a rejection at the $78.69 high with declining volume, should reduce confidence in the near-term trend setup.
If BKH pulls back toward the $71 to $73 zone without a guidance cut or rate case setback, evaluate dividend yield relative to sector, rate case pipeline, capital spending plan, and utility sector valuations before assuming durability of support.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. Utility stocks can reprice quickly when rate decisions, financing requirements, or interest rate expectations change.
Track rate case filings and decisions in Wyoming, Colorado, and other service territories. Monitor the Cheyenne 1.8 GW project timeline and budget, debt issuance plans, equity dilution risk, operating cash flow relative to capital spending, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence if negative free cash flow persists without a clear path to cash flow improvement, if debt-to-equity rises further, or if rate case outcomes consistently fall below filed requests.
Investment research summary
Black Hills Corporation is paid to deliver regulated electricity and natural gas to about 2.2 million combined customer connections across eight states. Customers pay because energy access is essential, and BKH has franchise rights to serve defined service territories.
BKH has a regulatory and infrastructure moat based on franchise service territories, integrated transmission and distribution assets, and state-regulated cost-of-service returns. The moat is narrower than large-cap peers because of smaller, less diversified service areas and above-average leverage.
The thesis fails if regulators disallow recovery on major capital projects, the Cheyenne project experiences cost overruns or delays, rising interest rates pressure the balance sheet, equity dilution from project financing exceeds expectations, or weather and economic factors reduce demand.
Management should be judged by rate case filing strategy and outcomes, capital allocation between debt and equity financing, the Cheyenne project execution, dividend sustainability, operating cash flow generation, and the ability to grow rate base without diluting shareholders.
BKH operates within long-duration trends including regulated infrastructure replacement, grid hardening and reliability investment, electrification, and data-center power demand. These trends support rate base growth but require regulatory approval and affordable financing to translate into per-share value.
At 19.59x TTM EPS and near a 52-week high, BKH requires steady execution on rate cases, project delivery, and financing. The margin of safety improves if the price retreats toward the $71 support zone while the fundamental outlook for rate base growth and dividend coverage remains intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKH price | $75.21 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance BKH summary page | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.73 billion verified as $75.21 x 76.13 million shares, versus $5.726B reported by Yahoo Finance | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $10.36 billion | Yahoo Finance BKH key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.29 billion | Yahoo Finance BKH financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $288.3 million, cross-validated at < 1% variance | Yahoo Finance BKH financials | July 12, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.84 | Yahoo Finance BKH statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 19.59x, verified by financial_rigor.py as 75.21 / 3.84 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Price/book | 1.45x, verified by financial_rigor.py as 75.21 / 51.87 | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.81 annual dividend, 3.74% yield verified by financial_rigor.py | Yahoo Finance BKH summary | July 12, 2026 |
| Total cash and debt | $23.6 million cash, 115.59% debt/equity ratio | Yahoo Finance BKH statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | -$487.22 million (levered) | Yahoo Finance BKH statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Profit margin and ROE | 12.61% profit margin, 7.40% ROE verified by financial_rigor.py | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Barchart 96% Buy, support at $73.80/$72.38/$71.40, resistance at $76.20/$77.18/$78.59 | Barchart BKH opinion page | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bearish ~$65 (2% growth, 16x PE), Base ~$82 (4% growth, 19x PE), Bullish ~$101 (6% growth, 22x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | $85.20 average, $87 high (BofA target raised from $78 to $87 on July 10, 2026) | Yahoo Finance BKH analysis page | July 12, 2026 |
This BKH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, regulation, interest rates, project execution, weather, energy demand, or market sentiment changes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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