Black Hills Corporation research snapshot
BKH AI stock analysis reads Black Hills Corporation as a diversified regulated electric and gas utility serving about 1.1 million electric and about 1.14 million gas customers across eight states. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, BKH closed at $71.21 on July 31, 2026, down from the $78.69 52-week high reached earlier in the year. The company combines a 55-year dividend growth record, a pending all-stock merger with NorthWestern Energy, and a proposed 1.8 gigawatt data center project in Cheyenne, Wyoming, with a 3.95% dividend yield and an 18.74x TTM P/E. The analysis is constructive but cautious: the shares have cooled technically, free cash flow is negative from heavy capital spending, debt-to-equity is about 115%, and per-share value depends on merger approval, rate case outcomes, and data center execution. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$71.21
Market cap
$5.42 billion verified (StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance: $5.42B)
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Attractive regulated utility, but momentum has cooled and execution risk is central
Trend status
Mixed. BKH pulled back to $71.21 from the $78.69 52-week high, trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above the 200-day. Barchart opinion fell to 8% Buy from 96% in early July with weakening direction
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Black Hills sells essential electricity and natural gas through regulated utilities across eight states, with rate-base growth driven by infrastructure replacement, grid hardening, and data-center load. Revenue is recurring and regulated but depends on state-level rate case outcomes. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from franchise service territories, regulated cost-of-service returns, and difficult-to-replicate transmission and distribution infrastructure. The moat is narrow compared to large-cap peers because BKH operates in smaller, more concentrated service territories with less diversification. | Medium-high |
| Management | Management is executing the all-stock merger with NorthWestern Energy, the Cheyenne 1.8 GW data center project, and Colorado and Wyoming rate reviews, while balancing debt financing against equity dilution. The automatic mixed securities shelf filing increases flexibility but also signals future capital needs. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is approximately $2.29 billion with net income of $288.3 million and TTM EPS of $3.80. FY2025 revenue grew 8.57% to $2.31 billion and net income grew 6.77% to $291.6 million. Capital expenditures of about $934 million drive negative free cash flow of roughly -$312 million, and the dividend has grown for 55 consecutive years. | Medium-high |
| Valuation | At $71.21, BKH trades at 18.74x TTM EPS, about 1.37x book value, and offers a 3.95% dividend yield. Forward P/E is about 15.5x to 16.9x against the FY26 consensus EPS of about $4.35. The three-year scenario model produced bearish near $61, base near $80, and bullish near $96, compared to the current price of $71.21. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Barchart shows an 8% Buy overall with weakening direction, a sharp drop from the 96% Buy in early July. The stock trades below the 20-day ($74.14) and 50-day ($73.54) moving averages but above the 200-day ($70.94), with RSI at 37.2 and a negative MACD as of the July 31, 2026 technical data check. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks include pending merger integration with NorthWestern Energy, negative free cash flow from heavy capex, above-average debt leverage (about 115% debt/equity and a 5.65 debt/EBITDA ratio), rate case disallowance or delay, equity dilution from project financing, the concentrated service territory exposure, and short interest near 12.4% of shares outstanding. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts, SEC-filed financials, and audited calculations. Medium for future price ranges and technical timing because utility valuations depend on rate decisions, merger outcomes, interest rates, and investor sector rotation. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. BKH has a visible demand story and a strategic merger, but the recent pullback, negative FCF, and above-average leverage leave room for merger, rate case, or financing disappointment. | Medium-low |
BKH AI stock forecast
The BKH AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $71.21 close, TTM EPS of $3.80, FY26 consensus EPS of about $4.35, and estimated long-term EPS growth consistent with regulated utility compounding. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $61, a base area near $80, and a bullish area near $96.
$92 to $99
More likely if BKH compounds EPS near 6% to 6.5%, the NorthWestern Energy merger closes on schedule and generates cost savings, the Cheyenne data center project moves toward a signed agreement with the hyperscaler customer, rate case outcomes are constructive, financing avoids significant dilution, and the market values BKH around 21x forward earnings.
$78 to $83
More likely if EPS grows near 4% to 4.5%, merger and rate case outcomes are adequate but not generous, the dividend remains covered, capital spending proceeds on plan, and the market values BKH around 18x to 18.5x forward earnings.
$58 to $63
More likely if rates rise, utility multiples compress, regulators limit recovery on major projects, the merger creates integration friction or delays, costs overrun on the Cheyenne project, equity dilution accelerates from capital needs, or weather-normalized demand disappoints.
BKH AI technical analysis
BKH AI technical analysis is mixed as of the July 31, 2026 data cutoff. BKH closed at $71.21 on July 31, 2026, below the $78.69 52-week high and below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages. Barchart technical indicators show only an 8% Buy signal with weakening direction, and RSI near 37 with a negative MACD suggest near-term momentum is soft, although price still holds above the 200-day moving average.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $71.21 | BKH closed at $71.21 on July 31, 2026, with a previous close of $72.23 and a day range of $70.93 to $72.22. |
| Near support | $70.68 | Barchart listed first support (S1) near $70.68 based on pivot point calculations after the July 31 close. |
| Secondary support | $70.16 | Barchart listed second support (S2) near $70.16, which also sits close to the 200-day moving average around $70.94. |
| Structural support | $69.39 | Barchart listed third support (S3) near $69.39. A close below this level would weaken the current setup and point to the lower part of the trading range. |
| Near resistance | $71.98 | Barchart listed first resistance (R1) near $71.98, the nearest obstacle to a rebound. |
| Secondary resistance | $72.75 to $73.27 | Barchart listed second and third resistance at $72.75 (R2) and $73.27 (R3), below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages of $74.14 and $73.54. |
| 52-week high | $78.69 | BKH reported a 52-week high of $78.69. Regaining this level on volume would restore the constructive longer-term picture. |
| 52-week low | $56.31 | The 52-week low of $56.31 represents the lower bound of the trading range over the past year. |
| Moving averages | SMA20 $74.14, SMA50 $73.54, SMA200 $70.94 | Price is below the 20-day and 50-day averages but above the 200-day, giving a mixed trend classification from the Yahoo Finance chart data. |
| Momentum | RSI 37.2, MACD negative | RSI(14) near 37.2 and a negative MACD histogram indicate soft near-term momentum after the pullback from the 52-week high. |
| Volume | 964,000 vs ~719,000 average | Yahoo Finance chart data reported volume of about 964,000 against a 20-day average of about 719,000, roughly 1.34x the average. |
| Volatility | Beta of 0.70 | The 0.70 beta is typical for a regulated utility, indicating lower volatility than the broader market. However, merger, rate case, and financing news can create sharp moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $69.39 | A decisive close below the $69.39 structural support would weaken the current framework and shift attention toward the lower end of the trading range near the 200-day average. |
BKH AI trading strategy
The BKH AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for monitoring a regulated gas and electric utility that has cooled after a strong run. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with live price data, merger and rate case calendars, Treasury yield trends, position sizing, and a predefined invalidation level.
Watch for BKH to reclaim and hold above the $73.27 resistance and the 20-day and 50-day moving averages near $73.50 to $74.20 on rising volume. Confirmation should include constructive merger and rate case updates from Colorado and Wyoming, stable or falling Treasury yields, and no adverse financing news.
A failed recovery followed by a close below $70.68, or a rejection at the moving averages with declining volume, should reduce confidence in the near-term trend setup.
If BKH pulls back toward the $69.39 to $70.68 zone without a guidance cut, merger setback, or rate case disappointment, evaluate dividend yield relative to sector, the merger timeline, the rate case pipeline, capital spending plan, and utility sector valuations before assuming durability of support.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule. Utility stocks can reprice quickly when merger, rate decision, financing, or interest rate expectations change.
Track merger progress with NorthWestern Energy, rate case filings and decisions in Colorado and Wyoming and other service territories, the Cheyenne 1.8 GW data center project timeline and any signed agreement, debt issuance and equity dilution plans, operating cash flow relative to capital spending, and dividend coverage.
Reduce confidence if negative free cash flow persists without a clear path to improvement, if debt-to-equity rises further, if short interest keeps climbing, or if rate case outcomes consistently fall below filed requests.
Investment research summary
Black Hills Corporation is paid to deliver regulated electricity and natural gas to about 2.2 million combined customer connections across eight states. Customers pay because energy access is essential, and BKH has franchise rights to serve defined service territories.
BKH has a regulatory and infrastructure moat based on franchise service territories, integrated transmission and distribution assets, and state-regulated cost-of-service returns. The moat is narrower than large-cap peers because of smaller, less diversified service areas and above-average leverage.
The thesis fails if the NorthWestern Energy merger stalls or creates integration friction, regulators disallow recovery on major capital projects, the Cheyenne data center project fails to convert into a signed agreement, rising interest rates pressure the balance sheet, equity dilution from capital needs exceeds expectations, or weather and economic factors reduce demand.
Management should be judged by merger execution and cost synergies, rate case filing strategy and outcomes, the Cheyenne project progress, capital allocation between debt and equity financing, dividend sustainability across its 55-year growth record, operating cash flow generation, and the ability to grow rate base without diluting shareholders.
BKH operates within long-duration trends including regulated infrastructure replacement, grid hardening and reliability investment, electrification, and data-center power demand. The Cheyenne area is seeing hyperscaler interest, including a Microsoft land purchase, but these trends require regulatory approval and affordable financing to translate into per-share value.
At 18.74x TTM EPS and about 15.5x to 16.9x forward earnings, BKH is priced for steady execution on the merger, rate cases, and project delivery. The margin of safety improves if the price holds the $69 to $71 support zone while the fundamental outlook for rate base growth and dividend coverage remains intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BKH price | $71.21 close on July 31, 2026 | Yahoo Finance chart data and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $5.42 billion verified as $71.21 x 76.13 million shares, versus $5.42B reported by StockAnalysis.com | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $10.05 billion | StockAnalysis.com BKH statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $2.29 billion | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com BKH financials | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM net income | $288.3 million | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com BKH financials | August 3, 2026 |
| EPS (TTM) | $3.80 (Yahoo Finance) / $3.88 (StockAnalysis.com); verified near $3.80 by 288.3M / 76.13M shares | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com BKH statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| PE ratio (TTM) | 18.74x at $71.21 with $3.80 EPS, verified by financial_rigor.py; Yahoo shows 18.99x to 19.01x | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Forward PE | About 15.5x (StockAnalysis.com) to 16.9x (Yahoo Finance), consistent with FY26 consensus EPS near $4.35 | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance BKH statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Price/book | About 1.37x, verified by financial_rigor.py as 71.21 / 51.83 book value per share | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 3, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | $2.81 annual dividend, 3.95% yield verified by financial_rigor.py; quarterly dividend of $0.703 with ex-date August 17, 2026 | Yahoo Finance and StockAnalysis.com BKH dividend data | August 3, 2026 |
| Total cash and debt | $23.6 million cash, about $4.65 billion total debt, debt/equity about 1.16x or 115.59%, debt/EBITDA about 5.65x | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance BKH statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Free cash flow (TTM) | -$312.5 million (operating cash flow of $621.8M minus capex of $934.3M); Yahoo Finance levered FCF is -$487.22M | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance BKH cash flow | August 3, 2026 |
| Profit margin and ROE | 12.61% profit margin, 7.66% ROE, 3.17% ROA, 3.96% ROIC | StockAnalysis.com and Yahoo Finance BKH statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 results and FY2026 guidance | FY2025 revenue $2.31B (+8.57%) and net income $291.6M (+6.77%); FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance reaffirmed at $4.25 to $4.45 | StockAnalysis.com financials and Black Hills earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical levels | Barchart 8% Buy, weakening direction; support at $70.68/$70.16/$69.39, resistance at $71.98/$72.75/$73.27 | Barchart BKH opinion page | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario valuation | Bearish ~$61 (2% growth, 15x PE), Base ~$80 (4.5% growth, 18.5x PE), Bullish ~$96 (6.5% growth, 21x PE) | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst price target | $85.00 average, range $80 to $87, Strong Buy consensus from 5 analysts; BMO Capital at $85, BofA at $87 | StockAnalysis.com BKH forecast and Yahoo Finance analysis | August 3, 2026 |
This BKH AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if earnings, merger approval, regulation, interest rates, project execution, weather, energy demand, or market sentiment changes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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