Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
ARWR AI stock analysis currently reads Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as a newly commercial RNAi company whose first FDA-approved medicine, REDEMPLO (plozasiran) for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, marks a platform transition while most economic value still depends on partner milestones, cardiometabolic label expansion, and pipeline execution. At the July 11, 2026 data cutoff, ARWR closed near $76.40 with a verified market capitalization of about $10.76 billion. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached $829.4 million on collaboration milestones, but trailing earnings remain negative and product sales are only beginning. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$76.40
Market cap
$10.76 billion
AI score
57 / 100
Rating
Newly commercial RNAi platform with high pipeline, milestone, and valuation risk
Trend status
Long-term uptrend still intact after a sharp pullback toward near support
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Arrowhead develops siRNA medicines that silence disease-causing genes. Customers and partners pay for clinical progress, regulatory approvals, and future product or royalty economics tied to the TRiM delivery platform. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on RNAi chemistry, TRiM delivery IP, clinical evidence, patents, specialist relationships, and partnership scale. It must still be proven through commercial execution and additional approvals. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Christopher Anzalone has advanced the company from platform story to first FDA approval, large partner deals, and a stronger cash position, while still balancing aggressive R&D spend and dilution risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $829.4 million from $3.6 million, net loss attributable narrowed to $1.6 million, and total cash resources reached $781.5 million at September 30, 2025. TTM earnings later turned more negative as milestone timing shifted. | High |
| Valuation | At $76.40, financial_rigor.py calculated about -35.5x TTM PE on EPS of -$2.15, so earnings multiples are not decision-useful. The market price mainly capitalizes REDEMPLO optionality, partner cash, and pipeline probability. | Medium |
| Technical trend | After a roughly 9% single-day drop into the July 11 cutoff, price sat near ChartMill support around $76.09, below recent resistance near $79 to $88, with longer-term support still referenced near the low $70s and around $61 to $70. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Key risks include REDEMPLO commercial uptake, severe hypertriglyceridemia trial outcomes, competitor RNAi and antisense drugs, lumpy milestone revenue, cash burn, royalty and credit liabilities, and share dilution. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive filings and calculations. Lower for price outcomes because biotech stocks reprice around clinical, regulatory, commercial, and financing news. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. First approval and partner funding improve durability, but the path from milestone-heavy revenue to scaled product economics is still unproven. | Low-medium |
ARWR AI stock forecast
The ARWR AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a point target. The mandatory three-scenario EPS model produces non-economic outputs when run on negative TTM EPS of about -$2.15, so it is not used as a valuation target. The ranges below frame commercial and pipeline outcomes around the $76.40 close and the still-early REDEMPLO launch.
$110 to $145
More likely if REDEMPLO FCS launch metrics improve, SHASTA and MUIR severe hypertriglyceridemia data support label expansion, partner milestones continue, and investors re-rate Arrowhead toward a multi-product RNAi commercial platform.
$55 to $85
More likely if REDEMPLO grows slowly in a small FCS population, milestone revenue remains lumpy, R&D spend stays elevated, and the market keeps a high discount rate for clinical and dilution risk.
$25 to $45
More likely if commercial uptake disappoints, late-stage cardiometabolic data underwhelm, partner programs stall, cash burn forces dilutive financing, or biotech risk appetite compresses multiples from elevated 2026 levels.
ARWR AI technical analysis
ARWR AI technical analysis is cautious after a sharp pullback as of the July 11, 2026 cutoff. Public closes near $76.40 sat against ChartMill support near $76.09 and resistance near $79.14, while the 52-week range from about $14.30 to $87.83 and longer moving-average references still frame a volatile post-breakout structure.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $76.40 | Public close snapshot used for July 11, 2026 research and market cap math after the roughly 9% decline. |
| Near support | $76.00 to $76.10 | ChartMill listed immediate support near $76.09 after the July pullback. |
| Secondary support | $70 to $71 | The recent one-month low area near about $70.72 is the next swing support if $76 fails. |
| Deeper support | $61 to $70 | Earlier accumulated-volume and longer moving-average references clustered from the low $60s into the low $70s before the late-stage run-up. |
| Moving averages | Mixed after the drop | Earlier June and early-July snapshots showed rising intermediate averages, but the sharp July decline put price back near or below short-term averages and requires live-chart confirmation. |
| Resistance | $79 to $84 | ChartMill listed near resistance around $79.14, with prior short-term averages and pivot areas near the low to mid $80s. |
| Higher resistance | $87 to $88 | The 52-week high near $87.83 is the key upside invalidation of the pullback structure. |
| Momentum | Weakened after event-style drop | A nearly 9% down day with heavy volume leaves momentum damaged until price reclaims the low $80s with follow-through. |
| Volume | Event-sensitive biotech volume | Compare volume with REDEMPLO commercial updates, SHASTA or MUIR data, partner milestones, financing news, and sector risk-off moves. |
| Volatility | High | ARWR remains a high-beta biotech with large swings around clinical, regulatory, and partnership headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $70, then $61 | A decisive close below $70 would weaken the post-pullback support structure. A break below the low $60s would force a deeper thesis review. |
ARWR AI trading strategy
The ARWR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a newly commercial RNAi biotech with lumpy collaboration revenue, first-product launch risk, and binary clinical events. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and catalyst calendars.
Watch for ARWR to stabilize above $76, reclaim the $79 to $84 resistance band, and then challenge the $87 to $88 high with improving volume and no negative commercial or clinical surprise.
A close below $76 would put the immediate support thesis under pressure. A close below $70 should invalidate the short-term rebound framework.
If ARWR pulls back into the $70 to $76 zone without a new product, safety, trial, or financing problem, compare the move with REDEMPLO launch signals, cash runway, and upcoming SHASTA or partner catalysts.
Do not treat every biotech pullback as mean reversion. Support can fail quickly when clinical data, payer access, or dilution risk changes.
Track REDEMPLO prescriptions and revenue contribution, Sarepta, Novartis, Amgen, Takeda, and Sanofi milestones, SHASTA and MUIR progress, R&D spend, cash and securities, royalty liabilities, credit facility balances, and share count.
Reduce confidence if valuation depends mainly on future label expansion and platform storytelling rather than measurable product revenue and controlled cash burn.
Investment research summary
Arrowhead turns RNAi science and TRiM delivery into gene-silencing medicines. Customers and partners pay when the company can silence validated targets safely enough to win approvals, milestones, royalties, or product sales.
The moat is strongest where delivery chemistry, target validation, patents, clinical evidence, and partnership economics reinforce each other. It narrows if competitors match efficacy, safety, convenience, or commercial access in triglycerides and other cardiometabolic indications.
The thesis fails if REDEMPLO remains a niche FCS product with weak economics, SHASTA expansion fails, partner programs stall, cash burn forces heavy dilution, or the market decides the pipeline probability does not justify a multi-billion-dollar capitalization.
Management has executed large collaborations, advanced multiple late-stage candidates, secured first FDA approval, and strengthened the balance sheet. The next test is commercial discipline and capital allocation across a still-broad pipeline.
RNAi sits inside a longer shift toward genetic medicines for cardiometabolic and rare diseases. The opportunity is large, but success depends on durable outcomes, safety, manufacturing, payer access, and competition from antisense, small molecules, and other gene-based approaches.
ARWR is priced more for pipeline and platform optionality than for current product earnings. Margin of safety is limited if clinical or commercial milestones disappoint, and improves only if REDEMPLO scales or broader hypertriglyceridemia data expand the addressable market.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARWR price | $76.40 | Public market close snapshots around July 10 to July 11, 2026 | July 11, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $10.76 billion, verified as $76.40 x 140.86 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification, Google Finance, and Motley Fool share count | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $829.448 million | Arrowhead FY2025 year-end release and Macrotrends cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss attributable to Arrowhead | $1.631 million, or $0.01 per diluted share | Arrowhead FY2025 year-end release and Yahoo Finance cross-check | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 total cash resources | $781.524 million cash, restricted cash, and available-for-sale securities at September 30, 2025 | Arrowhead FY2025 year-end financial position summary | July 11, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $622.01 million revenue and -$300.91 million net income | Yahoo Finance financials TTM snapshot | July 11, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue and cash snapshot | $73.7 million quarterly revenue, $132.7 million net loss, $188.5 million cash and restricted cash, and about $1.60 billion available-for-sale securities as of March 31, 2026 | Arrowhead Form 10-Q summary for quarter ended March 31, 2026 | July 11, 2026 |
| REDEMPLO regulatory status | FDA-approved siRNA for adults with FCS; also approved or progressing in Canada, China, Australia, and Europe review pathways | Arrowhead REDEMPLO approval and regulatory updates | July 11, 2026 |
| Technical support and resistance | Support near $76.09, resistance near $79.14, 52-week range about $14.30 to $87.83 | ChartMill technical snapshot and public 52-week range quotes | July 11, 2026 |
This ARWR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 11, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, clinical data, regulation, competition, interest rates, financing terms, or market sentiment change.
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