Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. research snapshot
ARWR AI stock analysis currently reads Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. as a newly commercial RNAi company whose first FDA-approved medicine, REDEMPLO (plozasiran) for familial chylomicronemia syndrome, is now joined by positive Phase 3 SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 data in severe hypertriglyceridemia. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, ARWR closed at $84.65 on July 31, 2026 with a verified market capitalization of about $11.92 billion. Arrowhead reported fiscal 2025 revenue of $829.4 million on partner milestones, and the latest quarter ended March 31, 2026 brought $73.7 million of revenue with a $132.7 million net loss as milestone timing shifted. The July 22, 2026 topline success, which showed median triglyceride reductions of 79% and 81% in SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 plus statistically significant pancreatitis reductions, drove the stock to a 52-week high near $95.49 and pushed several analysts to raise price targets into the $115 to $126 range. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$84.65
Market cap
$11.92 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Newly commercial RNAi platform that de-risked its severe hypertriglyceridemia expansion with positive SHASTA-3/4 data, but whose valuation already prices substantial pipeline and commercial success
Trend status
Long-term uptrend intact after a roughly 19% post-data rally to a $95.49 high on July 22, 2026, now consolidating near $85 above rising 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Arrowhead develops siRNA medicines that silence disease-causing genes. Customers and partners pay for clinical progress, regulatory approvals, and future product or royalty economics tied to the TRiM delivery platform, with REDEMPLO now launched and sHTG expansion de-risked by positive Phase 3 data. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat rests on RNAi chemistry, TRiM delivery IP, patents, clinical evidence including the SHASTA-3/4 pancreatitis signal, specialist relationships, and partnership scale. It must still be proven through commercial execution, sHTG approval, and durability against antisense and APOC3 competitors. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Christopher Anzalone has advanced the company from a platform story to first FDA approval, EU marketing authorization, a $930 million financing that funded the balance sheet, a Madrigal license for the MASH program, and positive SHASTA-3/4 data, while still balancing heavy R&D spend and dilution risk. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose to $829.4 million from $3.6 million with a narrowed $1.6 million net loss. TTM results reverted to about $622 million of revenue and a $300.9 million loss as milestones shifted, and Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue was $73.7 million with a $132.7 million net loss, leaving the earnings path dependent on milestone and future product timing. | High |
| Valuation | At $84.65, financial_rigor.py calculated about -39.0x TTM PE on EPS of -$2.17, so earnings multiples are not decision-useful. The market price mainly capitalizes REDEMPLO uptake, positive sHTG expansion prospects, partner cash, and pipeline probability rather than current earnings. | Medium |
| Technical trend | After the July 22, 2026 SHASTA rally to a $95.49 high, price consolidated near $85 through July 31, holding above the 50-day moving average near $78.78 and the 200-day moving average near $65.19, with RSI near 56. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high. Key risks include REDEMPLO and future sHTG commercial uptake, sNDA timing, MUIR-3 and YOSEMITE trial outcomes, competitor RNAi and antisense drugs, lumpy milestone revenue, cash burn, royalty and credit liabilities, the Ionis declaratory judgment dispute, and share dilution. | High |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive filings, clinical topline results, and calculations. Lower for price outcomes because biotech stocks reprice around clinical, regulatory, commercial, financing, and litigation news. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low to medium certainty. First approval, EU authorization, and positive sHTG data improve durability, but the path from milestone-heavy revenue to scaled product economics is still unproven and the valuation already reflects a large amount of success. | Low-medium |
ARWR AI stock forecast
The ARWR AI stock forecast is scenario-based, not a point target. The mandatory three-scenario EPS model produces non-economic outputs when run on negative TTM EPS of about -$2.17, so it is not used as a valuation target. The ranges below frame commercial and pipeline outcomes around the $84.65 close, the analyst consensus near $106 with targets from $95 to $126, and the still-early REDEMPLO launch.
$120 to $155
More likely if REDEMPLO script growth accelerates beyond the roughly 30 weekly new prescriptions reported in early May 2026, the planned U.S. sNDA for sHTG is filed before the end of 2026 and approved on a favorable timeline, MUIR-3 and YOSEMITE remain positive, and analysts re-rate Arrowhead toward the high end of the $115 to $126 target band.
$90 to $120
More likely if REDEMPLO grows steadily in a small FCS population, the sHTG filing proceeds on schedule, milestone revenue remains lumpy, R&D spend stays elevated, dilution continues, and the market keeps a multiple near the consensus target of about $106.
$50 to $85
More likely if REDEMPLO or future sHTG uptake disappoints, payer access or reimbursement slows the launch, the sNDA is delayed or the sHTG commercial case weakens, MUIR-3 underwhelms, cash burn forces further dilutive financing, the Ionis dispute escalates, or biotech risk appetite compresses the elevated 2026 multiple.
ARWR AI technical analysis
ARWR AI technical analysis is constructive after the positive SHASTA-3/4 data as of the August 3, 2026 cutoff. Public closes near $84.65 sit above the 50-day moving average near $78.78 and the 200-day moving average near $65.19, with ChartMill listing support near $73.65 and resistance near $88.70, while the 52-week range from about $15.01 to $95.49 frames a high-volatility post-breakout structure.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $84.65 | Public close on July 31, 2026 used for August 3, 2026 research and market cap math after a consolidating week below the post-data high. |
| Near support | $78.78 | The 50-day moving average near $78.78 is the first support zone for the post-SHASTA consolidation. |
| Secondary support | $73.65 | ChartMill listed support near $73.65 below the 50-day average as the next meaningful technical floor. |
| Deeper support | $65.19 | The 200-day moving average near $65.19, with the one-month low near $69.88 in between, marks the deeper trend-defining support zone. |
| Moving averages | Bullish alignment | Price is above both the 50-day average near $78.78 and the 200-day average near $65.19, consistent with a sustained uptrend. |
| Resistance | $88.70 | ChartMill listed resistance near $88.70, matching the July 22, 2026 closing high after the SHASTA data release. |
| Higher resistance | $95.49 | The 52-week high near $95.49 set intraday on July 22, 2026 is the key upside hurdle and the top of the current consolidation. |
| Momentum | Cooled but positive | RSI near 56 has settled from overbought after the July 22 spike, leaving momentum neutral-to-positive while price holds above rising averages. |
| Volume | Event-sensitive biotech volume | Volume spiked to roughly 7 million shares on July 22, 2026 and has since normalized; compare it with REDEMPLO updates, MUIR-3 or YOSEMITE data, sNDA news, financing, and litigation headlines. |
| Volatility | High | ARWR remains a high-beta biotech with a beta near 1.27 and large swings around clinical, regulatory, commercial, and financing headlines. |
| Invalidation | Close below $78.78, then $73.65 | A decisive close below the 50-day moving average near $78.78 would weaken the consolidation setup. A break below $73.65, and then the 200-day average near $65.19, would force a deeper thesis review. |
ARWR AI trading strategy
The ARWR AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a newly commercial RNAi biotech with a de-risked sHTG pipeline, lumpy collaboration revenue, first-product launch risk, and binary clinical and regulatory events. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, filings, position sizing, and catalyst calendars.
Watch for ARWR to hold above the 50-day moving average near $78.78, reclaim and clear resistance near $88.70, and then challenge the $95.49 high with improving volume and no negative commercial, regulatory, or clinical surprise.
A close below $78.78 would put the immediate trend setup under pressure. A close below $73.65 should invalidate the short-term trend framework and force a recheck of the catalyst calendar.
If ARWR pulls back toward the $74 to $79 zone without a new product, safety, trial, financing, or litigation problem, compare the move with REDEMPLO script data, sNDA timing, MUIR-3 and YOSEMITE news, and upcoming ESC presentation signals.
Do not treat every biotech pullback as mean reversion. Support can fail quickly when clinical data, payer access, reimbursement, or dilution risk changes.
Track REDEMPLO prescriptions, patient shipments, and revenue contribution, Sarepta and Novartis milestones, the planned U.S. sNDA for sHTG, MUIR-3 and YOSEMITE progress, R&D spend, cash and securities, convertible notes, the credit facility, royalty liabilities, the Ionis dispute, and share count.
Reduce confidence if valuation depends mainly on future label expansion and platform storytelling rather than measurable product revenue, controlled cash burn, and de-risked clinical readouts.
Investment research summary
Arrowhead turns RNAi science and TRiM delivery into gene-silencing medicines. Customers and partners pay when the company can silence validated targets safely enough to win approvals, milestones, royalties, or product sales, with REDEMPLO now the first shipped product and sHTG expansion de-risked by positive Phase 3 data.
The moat is strongest where delivery chemistry, target validation, patents, clinical evidence including the SHASTA-3/4 pancreatitis reduction, and partnership economics reinforce each other. It narrows if competitors match efficacy, safety, convenience, dosing, or commercial access in triglycerides and other cardiometabolic indications.
The thesis fails if REDEMPLO remains a niche FCS product with weak economics, the sHTG sNDA is delayed or the commercial case disappoints, MUIR-3 underwhelms, YOSEMITE stalls, partner programs weaken, cash burn forces heavy dilution, the Ionis dispute escalates, or the market decides the pipeline probability does not justify an $11.9 billion capitalization.
Management has executed large collaborations, advanced multiple late-stage candidates, secured the first FDA approval plus EU and other regional authorizations, raised $930 million, licensed the MASH program to Madrigal, and delivered positive SHASTA-3/4 data. The next test is commercial discipline and capital allocation across a still-broad pipeline.
RNAi sits inside a longer shift toward genetic medicines for cardiometabolic and rare diseases. The opportunity is large, but success depends on durable outcomes, safety, manufacturing, payer access, and competition from antisense, small molecules, and other gene-based approaches.
ARWR is priced more for pipeline and platform optionality than for current product earnings. Margin of safety is limited because the market already prices substantial sHTG and commercial success, and improves only if REDEMPLO scales, the sHTG filing lands on schedule, or later-stage data keep reducing binary risk.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARWR price | $84.65 | Public market close snapshot on July 31, 2026, after hours near $85.45 | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.92 billion, verified as $84.65 x 140.86 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification and StockAnalysis share count | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $829.448 million | Arrowhead FY2025 year-end release and StockAnalysis cross-check | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue and loss | $73.737 million quarterly revenue, $132.732 million net loss attributable to Arrowhead, and diluted EPS of -$0.93 for the quarter ended March 31, 2026 | Arrowhead fiscal 2026 second quarter results release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 fiscal 2026 total cash resources | $1,784.091 million of cash, restricted cash, and available-for-sale securities at March 31, 2026, including about $681.9 million of convertible notes and a $199.6 million credit facility balance | Arrowhead fiscal 2026 second quarter financial position summary | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and net income | About $622.01 million revenue and -$300.91 million net income | StockAnalysis TTM statistics snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 topline results | Phase 3 studies of plozasiran met the primary endpoint with median triglyceride reductions of 79% and 81% at month 12, statistically significant acute pancreatitis reductions, and no new safety signals; a U.S. sNDA for sHTG is planned before the end of 2026 | Arrowhead SHASTA-3 and SHASTA-4 topline release, July 22, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| REDEMPLO regulatory status | Approved for FCS in the United States, the European Union, China, Australia, and Canada; YOSEMITE Phase 3 enrollment for zodasiran completed July 27, 2026 | Arrowhead newsroom regulatory updates | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 12 analysts with an average price target of $106.09 and a range of $95 to $126, including July 2026 raises to $123 at B. Riley, $126 at Piper Sandler, $120 at Morgan Stanley, and $115 at H.C. Wainwright | StockAnalysis analyst forecast snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical support and resistance | 50-day moving average near $78.78, 200-day moving average near $65.19, RSI near 56, support near $73.65, resistance near $88.70, and a 52-week range of about $15.01 to $95.49 | StockAnalysis statistics and ChartMill technical snapshot | August 3, 2026 |
This ARWR AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, clinical data, regulation, competition, interest rates, financing terms, litigation, or market sentiment change.
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