Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. research snapshot
ARLP AI stock analysis currently reads Alliance Resource Partners, L.P. as a diversified energy MLP that mines and markets bituminous coal, owns oil and gas mineral interests, and operates a mining technology business through Matrix Design Group. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, ARLP closed at $24.37 on July 10, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $3.14 billion and a trailing dividend yield of about 9.85%. TTM revenue was approximately $2.17 billion and TTM net income was approximately $243 million, but Q1 2026 net income was only $9.09 million due to a weak quarter that bears watching. The ARLP AI stock forecast is scenario-based because thermal coal demand faces structural pressure from natural gas, renewables, and environmental regulation, while the companys diversification into oil and gas royalties and mining technology provides some offset. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$24.37 NASDAQ close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$3.14 billion verified market capitalization
AI score
58 / 100
Rating
Diversified coal MLP with oil and gas royalties, mining technology exposure, and a high dividend yield offset by structural thermal coal headwinds
Trend status
Near the middle of the 52-week range with a beta around 0.20 showing low correlation to broad equity moves
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ARLP mines and sells bituminous coal to electric utilities and industrial users, earns royalty income from oil and gas mineral interests, and provides mining technology products. The coal business generates cash but faces long-term demand pressure, while royalty and technology segments offer diversification. | High |
| Moat | The moat is based on low-cost underground coal reserves in the Illinois Basin and Appalachia, long-term customer relationships, and the Matrix mining technology business. It is a cost and resource-position advantage rather than a brand or network-effect moat. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Joe Craft has led the company since its founding in 1971 and is the largest individual shareholder, providing strong alignment with unitholders. Management has allocated capital across coal operations, oil and gas royalty acquisitions, technology investments, and consistent distributions. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue of $2.17 billion is supported by coal sales, royalty income, and technology services. TTM net income is about $243 million, but Q1 2026 net income dropped to $9.09 million on lower coal prices and higher costs. The balance sheet shows $28.87 million cash and moderate debt with a debt-to-equity ratio of 28.49%. | High |
| Valuation | At $24.37, verified math gives about 12.83x TTM EPS of $1.90, 1.78x book value using $13.69 per share, 13.39x TTM free cash flow per share of $1.82, and a 9.85% dividend yield. The valuation appears inexpensive but reflects structural coal demand concerns and Q1 earnings weakness. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | ARLP is near $24.37 with a 52-week range of $22.20 to $29.45. Beta of 0.20 indicates low volatility relative to the broad market. The stock has traded in a range without a clear trend breakout direction. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated for a coal-heavy MLP because thermal coal demand faces long-term pressure from natural gas, renewables, and environmental regulation. Additional risks include customer concentration, dividend sustainability, coal price volatility, and energy transition policy. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial history, valuation math, balance sheet data, dividend record, and technical references. Medium for forward coal demand trends, royalty income growth, technology segment scaling, and terminal valuation multiples. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. ARLP offers a high current yield and diversified energy exposure, but the investment case depends on whether management can sustain the distribution and grow non-coal income faster than coal earnings decline. | Medium-low |
ARLP AI stock forecast
The ARLP AI stock forecast uses a three-year sensitivity model rather than a precise price promise. Using the $24.37 reference price, $1.90 TTM diluted EPS, 15% bull growth, 5% base growth, negative 10% bear growth, and terminal P/E multiples of 15x, 11x, and 7x produces model values of about $43.3, $24.2, and $9.7. The ranges below are wider than the model outputs because coal markets, royalty income, technology growth, distribution policy, and investor sentiment can shift quickly.
$35 to $50
More likely if thermal coal demand stabilizes or global energy demand lifts coal prices, oil and gas royalty income grows through acquisitions, Matrix technology revenue scales, distributions are maintained or increased, and the market re-rates the stock to a mid-teens multiple. The verified model value was about $43.3.
$20 to $30
More likely if coal operations generate stable cash flow but face gradual volume decline, royalty income provides modest growth, technology business grows steadily, distributions are maintained at the current rate, and the stock trades near its current single-digit to low-teens P/E range. The verified model value was about $24.2.
$8 to $15
More likely if thermal coal demand contracts faster than expected due to natural gas competition, renewables penetration, or carbon regulation, royalty income declines, technology growth stalls, the distribution is cut, and the stock re-rates to a single-digit P/E reflecting earnings and distribution risk. The verified model value was about $9.7.
ARLP AI technical analysis
ARLP AI technical analysis starts from the $24.37 close on July 10, 2026. Yahoo Finance and Google Finance report a 52-week range of $22.20 to $29.45, beta of 0.20, average volume of about 289,000 to 355,000 shares, and a trailing P/E of about 12.83. The stock has moved within a moderate range without a clear directional breakout. Technical levels should be checked against quarterly earnings, coal price trends, distribution announcements, and royalty acquisition news.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $24.37 | NASDAQ closing price on July 10, 2026, used as the reference for this page. |
| Near support | $22 to $23 | This zone aligns with the 52-week low area around $22.20. A close below this level would test multi-year support. |
| Secondary support | $19 to $21 | A deeper support zone if coal market conditions, distribution concerns, or energy sector weakness push ARLP below the 52-week range. |
| Near resistance | $26 to $28 | The stock needs to clear this zone to establish upward momentum toward the upper end of the 52-week range. |
| 52-week high | $29.45 | A breakout above this level with volume would signal a new upward phase, but coal fundamentals would need to support the move. |
| Momentum | Low beta of 0.20 | The stock has low correlation to broad market moves, so direction tends to be driven by company-specific and coal industry factors. |
| Volume | Average about 289,000 to 355,000 shares | Volume is moderate for a mid-cap MLP. Material breakouts or breakdowns should be confirmed by above-average volume. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.20; 52-week change about flat to down 9% | Low beta suggests the stock does not amplify market moves, but coal price shocks or distribution changes can still cause significant single-day moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $22 with weaker coal demand or distribution cut | A support break combined with lower coal prices, a distribution reduction, or rising debt would reduce confidence in the base case. |
ARLP AI trading strategy
The ARLP AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework for a coal MLP with diversified energy exposure, not personalized advice. It should be monitored with live price, coal market trends, quarterly production and sales volumes, royalty acquisition updates, distribution announcements, balance sheet data, and the next earnings release expected around July 27, 2026.
For investors focused on the 9.85% dividend yield, monitor distributable cash flow coverage, coal sales volumes and realizations, royalty income, and management commentary on distribution policy. The distribution has been consistent, but Q1 2026 net income of $9.09 million was well below recent quarterly averages.
Reduce position confidence if distributable cash flow does not cover the distribution, if coal prices decline materially, or if management signals a distribution reduction or suspension.
If ARLP approaches the $22 to $23 support area without a new fundamental warning, compare the price with TTM EPS of $1.90, TTM FCF per share of $1.82, book value per share of $13.69, and the 9.85% dividend yield before treating the decline as a buying opportunity.
Do not treat a low P/E or high dividend yield as a floor. Both can persist or deepen if coal demand, earnings, or distribution sustainability deteriorate further.
Track quarterly coal production and sales volumes, average realizations per ton, oil and gas royalty income, Matrix technology revenue, operating costs, distributable cash flow, debt levels, and capital allocation between mine development, royalty acquisitions, technology investment, and distributions.
Lower the thesis score if coal volumes decline faster than royalty and technology income can offset, if debt rises without a clear return on invested capital, or if the distribution coverage ratio drops below 1.0x on a sustained basis.
Investment research summary
Alliance Resource Partners is paid to mine and sell thermal coal to utilities and industrial users, earn royalties from oil and gas mineral interests, and provide mining technology products. Customers pay for reliable coal supply, and the business generates cash that supports a high distribution yield. Duan Yongping style question: if the business had to be described in one sentence, it is a coal cash-flow machine with growing diversification into royalties and technology.
The moat comes from low-cost Illinois Basin and Appalachian coal reserves, long-term customer relationships in the utility and industrial sectors, and the Matrix mining technology business. The 2025 annual report highlighted seven underground mining complexes and a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River. Buffett style question: will the coal reserves and customer relationships still generate excess returns in ten years as the energy mix shifts toward natural gas and renewables?
The thesis can fail through accelerating thermal coal decline as utilities switch to natural gas and renewables, tighter environmental regulations, rising mine maintenance costs, a distribution cut that destroys the total return case, customer concentration risk, or failed royalty acquisitions that consume capital without generating adequate returns. The most dangerous mistake is treating the high yield as a bond proxy without monitoring distributable cash flow coverage.
CEO Joe Craft has been with the company since founding in 1971 and is the largest individual shareholder, creating strong alignment with unitholders. Management has allocated capital across coal operations, oil and gas royalty acquisitions (including the recent $206 million deal), mining technology through Matrix Design Group, and consistent quarterly distributions. Management question: if Joe Craft retired, would the capital allocation discipline and cost management remain as effective?
The long-term trend for thermal coal is unfavorable as U.S. electricity generation shifts toward natural gas, renewables, and nuclear. However, coal demand in emerging markets and for industrial uses like steel production provides some support. ARLPs diversification into oil and gas royalties and mining technology is a strategic response to structural coal headwinds. Li Lu style question: in twenty years, will Alliance Resource Partners have successfully transitioned away from thermal coal dependence, or will it be a declining cash-flow stream with a shrinking asset base?
At $24.37, ARLP trades near 12.83x TTM EPS, 1.78x book value, 13.39x TTM free cash flow per share, and offers a 9.85% dividend yield. The valuation appears low, but the margin of safety depends on whether the company can sustain earnings and distributions amid coal market headwinds. The verified three-year model spans about $9.7 in a bear case, $24.2 in a base case, and $43.3 in a bull case. Buffett and Duan style question: would the business remain attractive if the market closed for five years and thermal coal demand continued its structural decline?
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARLP price and market capitalization | $24.37 closing price on July 10, 2026 and about $3.14 billion market capitalization | Yahoo Finance ARLP summary page and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 128.66 million shares, cross-checked between Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Market-cap verification | $24.37 x 128.66 million shares = about $3.14 billion, with 0.01% variance versus reported market cap | financial_rigor.py market-cap check | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM revenue and revenue structure | Approximately $2.17 billion TTM revenue from coal sales, oil and gas royalties, and mining technology services | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance financials | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM net income and EPS | TTM net income approximately $243 million; TTM diluted EPS of $1.90 | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 operating results | $516.02 million revenue, $9.09 million net income, $0.38 diluted EPS, and EBITDA of $146.70 million | Google Finance quarterly financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Balance sheet highlights | $28.87 million total cash, total debt/equity of 28.49%, and levered free cash flow of $234.17 million (TTM) | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dividend and yield | Quarterly distribution of $0.60 per unit, annualized $2.40, yielding approximately 9.85% | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM valuation inputs | TTM diluted EPS $1.90, book value per share $13.69, free cash flow per share $1.82, and dividend of $2.40 | Yahoo Finance and financial_rigor.py calculation | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation verification | About 12.83x PE, 1.78x PB, 13.39x P/FCF, 7.47% FCF yield, and 9.85% dividend yield using the verified inputs | financial_rigor.py valuation check | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical inputs | 52-week range $22.20 to $29.45, beta 0.20, average volume 289,000 to 355,000 shares, trailing P/E 12.83 | Yahoo Finance and Google Finance | July 12, 2026 |
| Industry and competitive context | Thermal coal peer group includes Peabody (BTU), Natural Resource Partners (NRP), Core Natural Resources (CNR), and Hallador Energy (HNRG) | Yahoo Finance industry comparison | July 12, 2026 |
This ARLP AI stock analysis page is an informational tool only and is not investment advice, tax advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if coal demand, natural gas prices, environmental regulation, royalty acquisition results, distribution policy, management decisions, or market conditions change.
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