Peabody Energy Corporation research snapshot
BTU AI stock analysis currently reads Peabody Energy as a coal producer with quality metallurgical and thermal coal assets, negative TTM earnings, a wider Q2 2026 loss, and material operational and legal headwinds. The August 4, 2026 setup carries elevated risk because the stock depends on coal prices, Centurion mine ramp-up success, liquidity management, litigation outcomes, and global steel and energy demand. The BTU AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed price prediction.
Current price
$21.79
Market cap
$2.65 billion verified market cap
AI score
40 / 100
Rating
Coal producer with valuable metallurgical and thermal assets, a deeper Q2 2026 loss, Centurion mine ramp still in progress, securities class action litigation, and heavy commodity-price sensitivity
Trend status
Bearish, well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Peabody sells metallurgical coal to steelmakers and thermal coal to power utilities. Q2 2026 revenue rose to $1,003.2 million but the company reported a -$90.6 million net loss as Centurion commissioning costs and weak U.S. thermal volumes weighed on results. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from high-quality Australian met coal reserves, Powder River Basin thermal coal scale, and long-lived mining assets. Commodity pricing and lack of brand loyalty create a narrow moat. | Low to medium |
| Management | Management is navigating Centurion mine commissioning, cost pressure, a securities class action, and a convertible note refinancing. Liquidity improved, surety collateral dropped by about $350 million, and the revolving credit facility rose to $400 million. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $4.01 billion, TTM net income is negative at about -$182.7 million, and Q2 2026 showed a -$90.6 million loss. Levered free cash flow is negative. The balance sheet holds $526.3 million cash with total liquidity of $959.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $21.79, financial_rigor.py verifies negative TTM P/E due to -$1.50 EPS, 0.80x book value, 0.66x sales, and a 1.38% dividend yield. Forward P/E is about 24.69x per Yahoo Finance and 11.66x per StockAnalysis, reflecting a wide earnings-recovery spread. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | The stock is well below both moving averages after falling from the 52-week high of $41.14, with Barchart technical opinion at Strong Sell. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because lower coal prices, Centurion mine delays, securities litigation, global steel demand weakness, energy transition pressure, and regulatory changes can all affect equity value. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is medium because key facts are source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower given the operational, legal, and commodity uncertainties. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The investment case needs stronger proof that Centurion mine issues are resolved, earnings recover, and cash flow turns positive before the stock offers a reliable margin of safety. | Low to medium |
BTU AI stock forecast
The BTU AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the equity is sensitive to coal prices, Centurion mine performance, global steel demand, legal outcomes, and market multiples. Using the $21.79 price reference, a forward EPS estimate near $0.88 implied by the Yahoo Finance forward P/E of 24.69x, and the audited three-year scenario model, the mechanical outputs are about $31 in a bullish case, $13 in a base case, and $5 in a bearish case before dividends.
$28 to $35 before dividends
More likely if met and thermal coal prices stabilize or rise, Centurion mine ramps to targeted production rates, legal liabilities are contained, earnings recover to support a mid-teens multiple, and global steel demand holds up.
$13 to $18 before dividends
More likely if coal prices normalize, Centurion mine improvements are gradual, litigation creates some liability but does not threaten solvency, and the market values BTU near a low double-digit earnings multiple.
$5 to $9 before dividends
More likely if coal prices fall sharply, Centurion issues persist, litigation results in material damages, cash burn continues, or energy transition policies reduce long-term coal demand visibility.
BTU AI technical analysis
BTU AI technical analysis is bearish as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed a Strong Sell technical opinion with the stock closing at $21.79 on August 3, 2026, down from a 52-week high of $41.14 and holding above the 52-week low of $15.62. Key resistance Fibonacci levels lie at $25.37 (38.2%), $28.38 (50%), and $31.39 (61.8%).
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $21.79 | Barchart and StockAnalysis listed the August 3, 2026 close near $21.79, with the stock well off the 52-week high. |
| Immediate support | $21.32 to $20.85 | Barchart turning points place first support near $21.32 and second support near $20.85. |
| Deeper support | $20.06 to $15.62 | The 1-month low is near $20.06 from July 29, 2026 and the 52-week low is $15.62. A break below recent lows would open a test of this area. |
| Near resistance | $22.10 to $22.88 | Barchart turning points place first resistance near $22.10 and third resistance near $22.88. |
| Upper resistance | $25.37 to $31.39 | The 38.2% Fibonacci level near $25.37 and the 61.8% level near $31.39 form the upper resistance zone, near the $31.00 consensus analyst target. |
| Moving averages | Trend is below key averages | The stock is below its 5-day ($21.71), 20-day ($22.84), 50-day ($24.64), 100-day ($27.15), and 200-day ($29.34) moving averages, indicating a sustained downtrend. |
| Momentum | Strong sell with weak short-term outlook | Barchart technical opinion rates BTU as Strong Sell with a weakening short-term outlook and a 14-day RSI near 41. |
| Volume | Average volume near 3.28 million shares | Volume has been active during the decline, with the August 3, 2026 session near 2.1 million shares, suggesting continued distribution. |
| Volatility | Options implied volatility near 57% | The elevated IV suggests the options market expects above-average price moves around upcoming earnings and legal developments. |
| Invalidation | Close below $20.06, then below $15.62 | A sustained break below the 1-month low of $20.06 would signal further downside. A break below $15.62 would invalidate the entire 52-week range. |
BTU AI trading strategy
The BTU AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with coal prices, Centurion mine progress, earnings, liquidity, litigation, and energy market monitoring.
Watch for BTU to reclaim the $22.10 to $22.88 resistance zone with improving coal prices, positive Centurion mine updates, and evidence that earnings are turning positive.
A failure to reclaim that zone followed by a close below $21.32 should reduce trend confidence, especially if litigation news or production guidance worsen.
If BTU retests the $20.06 to $20.85 area without permanent impairment to reserves, liquidity, or asset quality, compare the lower price with normalized met coal margins and asset value.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if coal demand appears structurally impaired or if Centurion mine issues signal deeper operational problems.
Track met and thermal coal benchmark prices, Centurion mine production and cost updates, quarterly earnings, cash position, debt, litigation developments, and global steel demand indicators.
Position sizing should reflect that BTU is a leveraged cyclical equity with operational and legal uncertainties, not a guaranteed AI price prediction or a stable income stock.
Investment research summary
Customers and markets pay Peabody because steelmakers need metallurgical coal for blast furnaces and utilities need thermal coal for power generation. BTU converts mining assets, reserves, and operational know-how into cash flow across Australia and the United States.
The moat comes from quality met coal reserves in Australia, Powder River Basin thermal coal scale, and long-lived mining infrastructure. The moat is narrow because coal is a commodity priced in global markets with limited pricing power.
The thesis fails if coal prices decline, Centurion mine fails to ramp up, litigation produces material damages, cash reserves dwindle, global steel demand weakens, or energy transition policies accelerate coal phase-out faster than expected.
Management is focused on completing Centurion mine commissioning, controlling costs, preserving liquidity, and defending against securities litigation. The key test is whether they can restore operational reliability and profitability while the ramp completes.
Coal benefits from ongoing global steel and electricity demand, but faces structural headwinds from decarbonization policies, renewable energy growth, and investor preference for lower-carbon assets. Met coal has a longer runway than thermal coal, and DOE rare earth and critical mineral funding adds a long-dated optionality.
At $21.79, BTU is priced below book value (0.80x) with negative TTM earnings. The forward P/E implies a recovery that has not yet materialized. Margin of safety only appears if Centurion ramps up and earnings turn positive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTU price reference | $21.79 close on August 3, 2026 | Barchart BTU overview and StockAnalysis BTU | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.65 billion reported and $2.65 billion calculated from $21.79 x 121.8 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Barchart BTU fundamentals | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 121.8 million shares outstanding | Barchart BTU fundamentals | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $4.01 billion TTM per StockAnalysis, cross-checked against Yahoo Finance TTM revenue near $4.01 billion | StockAnalysis BTU and Yahoo Finance BTU | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$182.7 million net income attributable to common per StockAnalysis and Yahoo Finance | StockAnalysis BTU and Yahoo Finance BTU | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | $1,003.2 million revenue and -$90.6 million net loss attributable to common, or -$0.74 per diluted share | Peabody Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and liquidity | $526.3 million cash and $959.1 million total liquidity at June 30, 2026 | Peabody Q2 2026 press release | August 4, 2026 |
| Debt and balance sheet | Net cash position near $101 million with total debt near $425 million and 12.88% debt/equity ratio | StockAnalysis BTU balance sheet and Yahoo Finance BTU | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Negative TTM P/E, 0.80x book value, 0.66x sales, 1.38% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py using Barchart and StockAnalysis inputs | August 4, 2026 |
| Forward valuation | Forward P/E 24.69x per Yahoo Finance and 11.66x per StockAnalysis, EV/EBITDA 10.18x | Yahoo Finance BTU and StockAnalysis BTU | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 52-week range $15.62 to $41.14, Fibonacci 38.2% at $25.37, 50% at $28.38, 61.8% at $31.39 | Barchart BTU overview and Barchart turning points | August 4, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.30 annual dividend ($0.075 quarterly), 1.38% forward yield, ex-date August 12, 2026 | Peabody press release and Barchart BTU fundamentals | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Moderate Buy with 8 analysts per Barchart and Buy with 6 analysts per StockAnalysis, average 1-year target $31.00 | Barchart BTU and StockAnalysis BTU | August 4, 2026 |
This BTU AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 4, 2026 and may be wrong if coal prices, company fundamentals, market multiples, litigation results, or macro conditions change.
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