Peabody Energy Corporation research snapshot
BTU AI stock analysis currently reads Peabody Energy as a coal producer with quality metallurgical and thermal coal assets, negative TTM earnings, declining revenue, and material operational and legal headwinds. The July 13, 2026 setup carries elevated risk because the stock depends on coal prices, Centurion mine ramp-up success, liquidity management, litigation outcomes, and global steel and energy demand. The BTU AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges, not a guaranteed price prediction.
Current price
$23.37
Market cap
$2.85 billion verified market cap
AI score
44 / 100
Rating
Coal producer with valuable metallurgical and thermal assets, negative TTM earnings, Centurion mine startup issues, class action litigation, and heavy commodity-price sensitivity
Trend status
Bearish, well below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 13, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Peabody sells metallurgical coal to steelmakers and thermal coal to power utilities. Demand depends on global steel production and electricity generation, and realized prices drive earnings. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from high-quality Australian met coal reserves, Powder River Basin thermal coal scale, and long-lived mining assets. Commodity pricing and lack of brand loyalty create a narrow moat. | Low to medium |
| Management | Management is navigating Centurion mine startup issues, declining revenue, and a securities class action. Key tests are operational execution, cost control, and liquidity management. | Medium |
| Financial trend | TTM revenue is about $3.9 billion, TTM net income is negative at about -$120 million, and Q1 2026 showed a loss. Free cash flow is negative. The balance sheet holds $492.5 million cash with low debt. | High |
| Valuation | At $23.37, financial_rigor.py verifies negative TTM P/E due to -$0.82 EPS, 0.81x book value, 8.59x free cash flow per share, and a 1.28% dividend yield. Forward P/E is about 24.69x. | High |
| Technical trend | The stock is well below both moving averages after falling from the 52-week high of $41.14, with Barchart technical opinion at Strong Sell. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because lower coal prices, Centurion mine delays, securities litigation, global steel demand weakness, energy transition pressure, and regulatory changes can all affect equity value. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is medium because key facts are source-backed and cross-checked. Return confidence is lower given the operational, legal, and commodity uncertainties. | Medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The investment case needs stronger proof that Centurion mine issues are resolved, earnings recover, and cash flow turns positive before the stock offers a reliable margin of safety. | Low to medium |
BTU AI stock forecast
The BTU AI stock forecast is scenario-based because the equity is sensitive to coal prices, Centurion mine performance, global steel demand, legal outcomes, and market multiples. Using the $23.37 price reference, forward EPS estimate of $0.95, and the audited three-year scenario model, the mechanical outputs are about $33 in a bullish case, $15 in a base case, and $7 in a bearish case before dividends.
$28 to $35 before dividends
More likely if met and thermal coal prices stabilize or rise, Centurion mine ramps up to full production, legal liabilities are contained, earnings recover to support a mid-teens multiple, and global steel demand holds up.
$13 to $18 before dividends
More likely if coal prices normalize, Centurion mine improvements are gradual, litigation creates some liability but does not threaten solvency, and the market values BTU near a low double-digit earnings multiple.
$5 to $9 before dividends
More likely if coal prices fall sharply, Centurion issues persist, litigation results in material damages, cash burn continues, or energy transition policies reduce long-term coal demand visibility.
BTU AI technical analysis
BTU AI technical analysis is bearish as of the July 13, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed a Strong Sell technical opinion with the stock trading at $23.37, down from a 52-week high of $41.14 and holding above the 52-week low of $13.60. Key resistance Fibonacci levels lie at $24.44 (38.2%), $27.62 (50%), and $30.81 (61.8%).
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $23.37 | Barchart listed the last close near $23.37 on July 10, 2026, with the stock well off the 52-week high. |
| Immediate support | $21.96 to $22.77 | This area brackets the recent 1-month low near $21.96 and the second support level near $22.77 per Barchart turning points. |
| Deeper support | $14.11 to $17.00 | The 52-week low is $14.11. A break below recent lows would open a test of this area. |
| Near resistance | $24.44 to $24.50 | The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 52-week range is near $24.44, marking the first resistance. |
| Upper resistance | $30.81 to $34.33 | The 61.8% Fibonacci level near $30.81 and the 1-year analyst target near $34.33 form the upper resistance zone. |
| Moving averages | Trend is below key averages | The stock is well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages after falling from the $41.14 high, indicating a sustained downtrend. |
| Momentum | Overbought/oversold mixed | Barchart technical opinion rates BTU as Strong Sell with extended short-term oversold conditions that could produce a counter-trend bounce. |
| Volume | Average volume near 3.4 million shares | Volume has been active during the decline, suggesting distribution, with news-driven spikes around litigation and Centurion announcements. |
| Volatility | Options implied volatility near 54% | The elevated IV suggests the options market expects above-average price moves around earnings on July 30, 2026 and legal developments. |
| Invalidation | Close below $21.96, then below $14.11 | A sustained break below the recent 1-month low of $21.96 would signal further downside. A break below $14.11 would invalidate the entire 52-week range. |
BTU AI trading strategy
The BTU AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects chart levels with coal prices, Centurion mine progress, earnings, liquidity, litigation, and energy market monitoring.
Watch for BTU to reclaim the $24.44 level (38.2% Fibonacci) with improving coal prices, positive Centurion mine updates, and evidence that earnings are turning positive.
A failure to reclaim $24.44 followed by a close below $21.96 should reduce trend confidence, especially if litigation news or production guidance worsen.
If BTU retests the $14 to $17 area without permanent impairment to reserves, liquidity, or asset quality, compare the lower price with normalized met coal margins and asset value.
Do not treat a pullback as attractive if coal demand appears structurally impaired or if Centurion mine issues signal deeper operational problems.
Track met and thermal coal benchmark prices, Centurion mine production and cost updates, quarterly earnings, cash position, debt, litigation developments, and global steel demand indicators.
Position sizing should reflect that BTU is a leveraged cyclical equity with operational and legal uncertainties, not a guaranteed AI price prediction or a stable income stock.
Investment research summary
Customers and markets pay Peabody because steelmakers need metallurgical coal for blast furnaces and utilities need thermal coal for power generation. BTU converts mining assets, reserves, and operational know-how into cash flow across Australia and the United States.
The moat comes from quality met coal reserves in Australia, Powder River Basin thermal coal scale, and long-lived mining infrastructure. The moat is narrow because coal is a commodity priced in global markets with limited pricing power.
The thesis fails if coal prices decline, Centurion mine fails to ramp up, litigation produces material damages, cash reserves dwindle, global steel demand weakens, or energy transition policies accelerate coal phase-out faster than expected.
Management is focused on resolving Centurion mine startup issues, managing costs, preserving liquidity, and defending against the securities class action. The key test is whether they can restore operational reliability and profitability.
Coal benefits from ongoing global steel and electricity demand, but faces structural headwinds from decarbonization policies, renewable energy growth, and investor preference for lower-carbon assets. Met coal has a longer runway than thermal coal.
At $23.37, BTU is priced below book value (0.81x) with negative TTM earnings. The forward P/E of 24.69x implies a recovery that has not yet materialized. Margin of safety only appears if Centurion ramps up and earnings turn positive.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTU price reference | $23.37 close near July 10, 2026 | Barchart BTU overview | July 13, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.85 billion reported and $2.85 billion calculated from $23.37 x 121.8 million shares | Pineify financial_rigor.py and Barchart BTU fundamentals | July 13, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 121.8 million shares outstanding | Barchart BTU fundamentals | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM revenue | $3.90 billion per Yahoo Finance TTM, cross-checked against Barchart annual revenue near $3.86 billion | Yahoo Finance BTU and Barchart BTU | July 13, 2026 |
| TTM net income | -$119.6 million net income attributable to common per Yahoo Finance | Yahoo Finance BTU key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | $973.3 million revenue and -$21.89 million net income in Q1 2026 | Yahoo Finance BTU earnings trends | July 13, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $492.5 million total cash and 12.14% debt/equity ratio | Yahoo Finance BTU key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | Negative TTM P/E, 0.81x book value, 8.59x free cash flow per share, 1.28% dividend yield from financial_rigor.py | Pineify financial_rigor.py using Barchart inputs | July 13, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios (Yahoo) | Forward P/E 24.69x, Price/Sales 0.72x, EV/EBITDA 8.57x | Yahoo Finance BTU key statistics | July 13, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 52-week range $13.60 to $41.14, Fibonacci 38.2% at $24.44, 50% at $27.62, 61.8% at $30.81 | Yahoo Finance BTU and Barchart turning points | July 13, 2026 |
| Dividend | $0.30 annual dividend ($0.075 quarterly), 1.28% forward yield | Barchart BTU fundamentals | July 13, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Moderate Buy with 8 analysts, 1-year price target $34.33 | Yahoo Finance BTU and Barchart analyst ratings | July 13, 2026 |
This BTU AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 13, 2026 and may be wrong if coal prices, company fundamentals, market multiples, litigation results, or macro conditions change.
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