Aris Mining Corporation research snapshot
ARIS AI stock analysis as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff reads Aris Mining Corporation as a low-cost gold producer in Colombia and Guyana that is reinvesting record cash flow into a growth pipeline. The stock closed at $14.39 on August 3, 2026, up 7.71% from the $13.36 July 31 close, after opening at $13.34 and trading in a session range of $13.29 to $14.41, with an after-hours quote of $14.52, carrying a market capitalization near $2.97 billion computed from $14.39 times 206.40 million shares, while StockAnalysis.com reported $2.76 billion at the prior close. The Q2 2026 report, released July 29, 2026, showed gold production of 73,710 ounces and 148,049 ounces for the first half, gold revenue of $321 million on 72,124 ounces sold at an average realized price of $4,450 per ounce, adjusted EBITDA of $179 million, net earnings of $94 million or $0.46 per share, and a cash balance of $425.6 million with net debt cut to $44 million, while first-half operating free cash flow after sustaining capital and taxes of $170.1 million funded most of the $166.3 million invested in growth projects. Management reaffirmed 2026 production guidance of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces, with Segovia owner-mining AISC of $1,623 per ounce running below the $1,700 to $1,800 guidance and CMP AISC margin of 43% above the 35% to 40% range, and first gold at Marmato targeted for Q4 2026 on a path toward roughly 500,000 ounces of annual production. The caution case is that ARIS is a single-commodity gold producer with jurisdiction exposure in Colombia, a pending Colombian government transition, a 19.71% year-over-year increase in shares outstanding that reflects equity-linked financing, a well-known seasoned issuer shelf prospectus filed on July 30, 2026, and earnings that swing with the gold price, which fell 8% in average realized terms from Q1 to Q2 2026. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$14.39 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.03 or 7.71% from the $13.36 July 31 close, after opening at $13.34 and trading in a session range of $13.29 to $14.41 on the real-time quote, with the daily history table confirming the same $14.39 close on volume near 1.31 million shares and an after-hours quote of $14.52, up 0.13 or 0.91%
Market cap
$2.97 billion computed as $14.39 times 206.40 million shares outstanding at the August 3, 2026 market close, while StockAnalysis.com reported $2.76 billion at the prior close of $13.36, and the shares outstanding figure reflects a 19.71% increase year over year
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
Low-cost gold growth story with strong cash flow and significant metal price leverage
Trend status
Corrective below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $15.48 and $16.42 after a sharp pullback from the $23.29 high, with a 7.71% rebound on August 3 and 14-day RSI near 47.40
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Aris Mining operates the Segovia and Marmato underground gold mines in Colombia, with the Toroparu and Soto Norte projects in development, and produced 148,049 ounces in the first half of 2026. The business generated $702.7 million of first-half revenue and $370.8 million of income from mining operations at an average realized gold price of $4,659 per ounce. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from low-cost gold reserves, operating permits, processing infrastructure in the Segovia belt, and an established relationship with local contract mining partners. However, gold is a commodity without pricing power, reserves are finite, and the company is one of several mid-tier South American gold producers. | Low-medium |
| Management | Chair and CEO Neil Woodyer, President Douglas Bowlby, and CFO Cameron Paterson have delivered production growth, record cash flow, and a reduction in net debt from $85.8 million to $44 million since year-end 2025, while advancing Marmato, Toroparu, and Soto Norte. The team has execution credibility but carries key-person risk and a history of equity-linked financing. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 produced 73,710 ounces, gold revenue of $321 million, adjusted EBITDA of $179 million, and net earnings of $94 million, while the first half produced 148,049 ounces, $702.7 million of revenue, and $191.9 million of net income. Cash of $425.6 million and net debt of $44 million at June 30, 2026 support the growth program. | High |
| Valuation | At $14.39, ARIS trades at roughly 10.5x trailing earnings, 5.35x forward earnings on the StockAnalysis.com statistics page or about 6.6x using the $2.18 FY2026 consensus estimate, 2.17x sales, 1.56x book value, and 4.02x EV/EBITDA, with an earnings yield near 10.33% and a free cash flow yield near 5.00%. | High |
| Technical trend | ARIS pulled back from its 52-week high of $23.29 to a $13.36 close on July 31 before rebounding 7.71% to $14.39 on August 3. The stock sits below the 50-day moving average near $15.48 and the 200-day near $16.42, with 14-day RSI near 47.40 and high beta of 1.95. | Medium |
| Risk level | Main risks are gold price decline after an 8% drop in average realized price from Q1 to Q2 2026, Colombia jurisdiction and the pending government transition, operational concentration in Segovia, the 19.71% year-over-year increase in shares outstanding, the WKSI shelf prospectus filed July 30, 2026, single-commodity exposure, COP appreciation pressure on local costs, and the need to fund the remaining Marmato capital and future development. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Descriptive confidence is high because the Q2 2026 numbers matched across StockAnalysis.com, SEC EDGAR, the Q2 2026 Form 6-K, and the earnings call. Return confidence is lower because gold prices, Colombian politics, cost inflation, and future equity issuance can reprice the stock rapidly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | ARIS may appeal to gold-bullish investors who want a low-cost producer with growing production and a forward multiple near 5x to 7x. It does not suit investors with low commodity tolerance or those who want to avoid single-jurisdiction exposure in an emerging market. | Medium-low |
ARIS AI stock forecast
The ARIS AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price claim. Using the $14.39 August 3, 2026 close and the FY2026 consensus EPS of $2.18, a three-year framework produced about $11 in a bear case, $21 in a base case, and $40 in a bullish case. Because gold prices, production ramp-ups, and the pace of equity issuance drive outcomes, these ranges are scenario stress tests, not price promises.
$34 to $44 before any future dividends
More likely if gold prices stay near or above $4,000 per ounce, Segovia production ramps toward its roughly 300,000-ounce run rate, Marmato delivers first gold in Q4 2026 and ramps through 2027, Toroparu advances toward the early 2027 construction decision, costs remain controlled, and the market re-rates ARIS toward the analyst average target of $37 with a forward multiple near 10x.
$18 to $25 before any future dividends
More likely if gold prices stabilize near current levels, 2026 production lands in the reaffirmed 300,000 to 350,000 ounce guidance, Segovia AISC stays near the $1,623 first-half level, Marmato commissioning stays on schedule, and investors value ARIS at a forward P/E around 7x on the $2.18 FY2026 consensus EPS.
$8 to $12 before any future dividends
More likely if gold prices fall sharply, cost inflation pressures margins, the Colombian political transition disrupts operations or permitting, the company issues equity under the WKSI shelf prospectus and dilutes holders, or the market assigns a 4x multiple to depressed earnings after a gold price downturn.
ARIS AI technical analysis
ARIS AI technical analysis shows a stock in a corrective phase as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. From the 52-week high of $23.29, ARIS corrected to a $13.36 close on July 31 before rebounding 7.71% to $14.39 on August 3, with a session range of $13.29 to $14.41 and an after-hours quote of $14.52. The stock trades below the 50-day moving average near $15.48 and the 200-day near $16.42 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, but above the computed 20-day average near $14.36 and the computed 5-day average near $14.07. The 14-day RSI near 47.40 is neutral, and the August 3 rebound came on volume near 1.31 million shares against a 20-day average near 1.31 million, so follow-through volume is still unproven.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $14.39 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.03 or 7.71% from the $13.36 July 31 close after opening at $13.34 and trading in a session range of $13.29 to $14.41; the daily history table confirms the $14.39 close on volume near 1.31 million shares and the after-hours quote was $14.52, up 0.13 or 0.91%. |
| Immediate support | $13.00 to $13.40 | The $13.29 August 3 low and the $13.36 July 31 close form the first demand zone, with the psychological $13.00 level just below. |
| Deeper support | $11.00 to $12.00 | This zone represents levels not visited since early in the 2026 uptrend and would be a major trend review area if reached. |
| Near resistance | $14.90 to $15.50 | The late-July consolidation around $14.50 to $15.00 and the 50-day moving average near $15.48 on StockAnalysis.com statistics form the first resistance band. |
| Upper resistance | $16.40 to $23.29 | The 200-day moving average near $16.42 sits in this band, with the 52-week high of $23.29 as the upper boundary set earlier in 2026. |
| Moving averages | Price below 50-day and 200-day averages | StockAnalysis.com statistics reported the 50-day moving average near $15.48 and the 200-day near $16.42 on August 3, 2026, above the current price, confirming the intermediate downtrend; the computed 20-day average near $14.36 and 5-day average near $14.07 sit below price. |
| Momentum | RSI near 47.40 | The 14-day RSI was near 47.40 on StockAnalysis.com statistics on August 3, 2026, neutral after the rebound from the July 31 low. |
| Volume | Average volume near 1.31 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics listed 20-day average volume near 1,308,601 shares on August 3, 2026, and the August 3 rebound traded about 1.31 million shares, so the bounce needs volume follow-through to be meaningful. |
| Volatility | High, with beta of 1.95 | ARIS is nearly twice as volatile as the broader market, driven primarily by gold price swings and news about Colombia, so position sizing should account for large daily moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $13.29, then below $13.00 | A close below the $13.29 August 3 low would signal the rebound failed; a decisive close below $13.00 would open the path toward the $11 to $12 zone and challenge the longer-term uptrend. |
ARIS AI trading strategy
The ARIS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price levels with gold prices, production metrics, AISC, cash flow, balance sheet strength, Colombian political developments, and the WKSI shelf prospectus that allows future equity issuance.
Wait for ARIS to reclaim and hold above the $14.90 to $15.50 resistance zone on rising volume, ideally with gold prices firm and the 50-day moving average near $15.48 turning into support. A close above the 200-day moving average near $16.42 would signal a stronger trend change.
Avoid adding positions while price is below the 50-day moving average near $15.48. A daily close below the $13.29 August 3 low or the $13.00 zone should stop any trend-following position.
If ARIS pulls back toward the $13.00 to $13.40 support area with declining volume and no fundamental deterioration, consider a mean-reversion entry with a tight stop. This works best when gold prices are stable or rising and Colombian news is quiet.
The mean-reversion trade is risky in a commodity stock with beta of 1.95. Position size should reflect that a gold price gap down, a Colombian political shock, or an equity issuance under the WKSI shelf could break support quickly.
Track gold prices, quarterly production reports, AISC trends, Segovia and Marmato operational updates, Marmato first gold timing, Toroparu pre-feasibility study progress and the construction decision, Soto Norte permitting, Colombian government transition news, cash balance, net debt, and any equity issuance under the July 30, 2026 WKSI shelf prospectus.
Position sizing should reflect that ARIS is a single-commodity gold producer with jurisdiction risk and a rising share count, not a predictable compounder. Never risk more than appropriate for a commodity-equity position.
Investment research summary
Aris Mining gets paid because it extracts gold from the ground at a cost well below the market price, generating substantial cash flow that now funds expansion projects at Marmato, Toroparu, and Soto Norte while gold prices are elevated.
The moat is based on low-cost mineral reserves, operating permits, processing infrastructure, and contract mining partnerships in the Segovia belt. It is real but limited because gold is a commodity with no pricing power and reserves are depletable.
The thesis fails if gold prices decline sharply, the Colombian political transition disrupts operations or permitting, cost inflation pressures the low AISC, the Marmato or Toroparu projects require dilutive financing, the market refuses to re-rate a single-jurisdiction gold producer, or the WKSI shelf prospectus leads to share issuance that offsets per-share gains.
Neil Woodyer, Douglas Bowlby, and Cameron Paterson have delivered record production, cash flow, and a reduction in net debt to $44 million while advancing multiple growth projects. The key tests are delivering Marmato first gold in Q4 2026, funding the remaining $76 million net Marmato requirement, and advancing Toroparu and Soto Norte without excessive dilution.
Gold mining benefits from elevated gold prices driven by geopolitical uncertainty, central bank buying, and inflation hedging, with Aris Mining realizing an average price near $4,659 per ounce in the first half of 2026. The offset is that cost inflation, COP appreciation, depleting reserves, and increasing regulatory complexity challenge the industry.
At roughly 5.4x to 6.6x forward earnings and 4.02x EV/EBITDA, ARIS screens as inexpensive if gold prices hold, with an analyst average target of $37. Margin of safety is limited if gold declines, Colombian risk is repriced, or future equity issuance expands the share count.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARIS quote reference | $14.39 at the August 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT market close, up 1.03 or 7.71% from the $13.36 July 31 close, after opening at $13.34 and trading in a session range of $13.29 to $14.41, with an after-hours quote of $14.52 up 0.13 or 0.91% | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $2.97 billion computed as $14.39 x 206.40 million shares, while StockAnalysis.com reported $2.76 billion at the prior close of $13.36 | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis.com | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 206.40 million shares outstanding, up 19.71% year over year and 0.14% quarter over quarter | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 gold production and sales | 73,710 ounces produced and 72,124 ounces sold in Q2 2026 at an average realized price of $4,450 per ounce, after 74,339 ounces produced and 74,843 ounces sold in Q1 2026 | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A | August 4, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 gold production and sales | 148,049 ounces produced and 146,967 ounces sold in H1 2026 at an average realized price of $4,659 per ounce, up 31% in production from the 113,415 ounces in H1 2025 | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 and H1 2026 revenue | Q2 2026 total revenue of $330.2 million with gold revenue of $321 million, and H1 2026 total revenue of $702.7 million with gold revenue of $684.7 million | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K interim financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| Q2 and H1 2026 profitability | Q2 2026 income from mining operations of $167.1 million, adjusted EBITDA of $179 million, net earnings of $94.2 million, and basic EPS of $0.46; H1 2026 income from mining operations of $370.8 million, adjusted EBITDA of $390.7 million, net earnings of $191.9 million, and basic EPS of $0.93, with trailing 12-month adjusted EBITDA near $690 million | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents of $425.6 million, total assets of $2,827.3 million, total liabilities of $1,061.8 million, and total equity of $1,765.4 million at June 30, 2026, with cash up from $391.9 million at December 31, 2025 | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K interim financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| Debt and liquidity | Net debt of $44.0 million at June 30, 2026, down from $85.8 million at December 31, 2025, calculated as senior notes and gold-linked notes principal less cash, with a working capital surplus of $267.7 million and net cash provided by operating activities of $244.9 million in H1 2026 | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A and interim financial statements | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash flow and capital allocation | H1 2026 operating free cash flow after sustaining capital and taxes of $170.1 million, growth and expansion capital of $166.3 million, sustaining capital of $28.5 million, and a $40.0 million precious metals stream installment received after the Marmato 50% construction milestone | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A | August 4, 2026 |
| Segovia operating results | Segovia produced 64,424 ounces in Q2 2026 and 130,991 ounces in H1 2026, with Q2 owner-mining AISC of $1,767 per ounce, H1 owner-mining AISC of $1,623 per ounce below the $1,700 to $1,800 guidance, and CMP AISC margin of 46% in Q2 and 43% in H1 above the 35% to 40% guidance | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A | August 4, 2026 |
| Marmato operating results and expansion | Marmato produced 9,286 ounces in Q2 2026 and 17,058 ounces in H1 2026, with the new CIP plant on schedule for first gold in Q4 2026, about $118 million of estimated remaining capital to first gold, and a net funding requirement of about $76 million after the final $42 million Wheaton installment expected in Q3 2026 | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A and earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| 2026 production guidance | 2026 production guidance of 300,000 to 350,000 ounces reaffirmed, with H1 production of 148,049 ounces near 50% of the midpoint and a path toward approximately 500,000 ounces of annual production from Segovia and Marmato in the near term | Aris Mining Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| Toroparu project | Pre-feasibility study on schedule for completion in H2 2026 supporting a construction decision targeted for early 2027, with a preliminary economic assessment effective October 21, 2025 outlining after-tax NPV at 5% of $1.8 billion, IRR of 25.2%, and a 3.0-year payback at a $3,000 per ounce gold price | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A | August 4, 2026 |
| Soto Norte project | Environmental studies and the environmental license application preparation nearing completion, with a PFS completed in September 2025 outlining after-tax NPV at 5% of $2.7 billion, IRR of 35%, and a 2.3-year payback at $2,600 per ounce, rising to $3.3 billion NPV and 40% IRR at $3,000 per ounce | Aris Mining Q2 2026 Form 6-K MD&A | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 results | FY2025 revenue of $927.66 million, up 81.68% from $510.60 million, and FY2025 net earnings of $78.35 million, up 218.71%, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and the FY2025 filings | StockAnalysis.com financials and SEC EDGAR | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue near $1.27 billion, TTM net income near $284.73 million, TTM operating cash flow near $489.41 million, TTM capital expenditures near $351.69 million, and TTM free cash flow near $137.72 million as of June 30, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | PE ratio 10.50x, forward PE 5.35x on the statistics page or about 6.6x using the $2.18 FY2026 consensus estimate, PS ratio 2.17x, PB ratio 1.56x, P/FCF 20.01x, EV/EBITDA 4.02x, EV/FCF 20.60x, earnings yield 10.33%, and free cash flow yield 5.00% | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Profitability and efficiency metrics | Gross margin 59.51%, operating margin 44.55%, profit margin 22.43%, ROE 19.09%, ROA 14.08%, ROIC 19.37%, current ratio 1.91, and debt-to-equity 0.29 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy rating with an average price target of $37.00 across 6 analysts, implying upside of about 157% from the $14.39 close, with recent updates including BMO Capital Markets Buy at $14 to $29 on July 31, 2026, ATB Cormark Buy at $22 to $29 on May 8, 2026, and Canaccord Genuity Buy at $25 to $30 on March 12, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate near $1.63 billion with EPS near $2.18, and FY2027 revenue near $2.14 billion with EPS near $3.30 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 2.99 million shares short, 1.45% of shares outstanding and 1.48% of float, 2.10 days to cover, down from 3.89 million the prior month | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 4, 2026 |
| WKSI base shelf prospectus | Aris Mining filed a well-known seasoned issuer (WKSI) base shelf prospectus on July 30, 2026, which enables future securities offerings and is a dilution-risk flag for shareholders | Business Wire via StockAnalysis.com news and SEC EDGAR F-10EF filing | August 4, 2026 |
| Colombia government transition | A Colombian presidential transition was in progress around the Q2 2026 report, with management noting meetings with the incoming minister of environment and the ANLA president and saying the relationship with the incoming government remains to be seen | Aris Mining Q2 2026 earnings call | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week range and performance | 52-week range $6.65 to $23.29, up 102.68% over the trailing 52 weeks, with beta of 1.95 | StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $15.48 and 200-day moving average near $16.42 on StockAnalysis.com statistics, computed 20-day average near $14.36 and 5-day average near $14.07 from the daily price history, 14-day RSI near 47.40, and 20-day average volume near 1.31 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and daily price history | August 4, 2026 |
This ARIS AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell Aris Mining Corporation, and not a promise of future returns. Forecasts are scenario-based estimates from available public data, quotes, and filings as of the stated cutoff date and can be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, gold price moves, Colombian political developments, or equity issuances.
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