APi Group Corporation research snapshot
APG AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads APi Group as a growing safety and specialty services platform that just delivered a record quarter and raised its full-year outlook again. The stock closed at $39.68 on July 31, 2026 with a market capitalization near $17.15 billion, re-verified during this full refresh as $39.68 times 432.16 million shares outstanding with 0.01% deviation across the StockAnalysis.com quote and statistics pages. Q2 2026 net revenues rose 13.3% to $2.25 billion with 10.1% organic growth, adjusted EBITDA grew 14.3% with margin of 13.8% up 10 basis points, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 12.8% to $0.44. Backlog reached a record above $5 billion for the first time, and management raised 2026 revenue guidance to $8.875 billion to $9.025 billion and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $1.205 billion to $1.245 billion. The counterweights are that GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders was negative at roughly $248 million on a trailing basis after acquisition-related amortization and preferred-share dividends, net debt was about $2.99 billion as of June 30, 2026, the stock trades below all four major moving averages, and the forward multiple around 21.6x to 22.9x assumes continued growth. This is informational analysis, not investment advice.
Current price
$39.68
Market cap
$17.15 billion
AI score
71 / 100
Rating
Record backlog and raised guidance with recurring-service momentum, offset by negative GAAP common earnings, net debt, and a valuation above current GAAP earnings
Trend status
Neutral to soft: price below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | APi sells essential fire and life safety, security, elevator, escalator, and specialty services that customers need to install, inspect, service, maintain, and monitor critical assets, with a stated long-term goal of more than 60% of revenue from inspection, service, and monitoring. | High |
| Moat | Scale, local service density, technical labor, safety and regulatory know-how, customer relationships, and recurring inspection and service touchpoints support retention. The moat is execution and trust rather than a consumer brand or exclusive technology. | Medium-high |
| Management | Russell Becker has been CEO since 2004. Management is executing an Inspection First strategy, closed Onyx in June and WTech in July 2026, completed three bolt-ons in Q2, started a $1 billion buyback program with a 1.6 million share repurchase, and raised guidance twice this year. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose 13.3% with 10.1% organic growth, adjusted EBITDA rose 14.3% with margin up 10 basis points, adjusted diluted EPS rose 12.8% to $0.44, and management raised 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA guidance. GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders remained negative because of amortization and preferred-share dividends. | High |
| Valuation | At $39.68, APG traded at about 2.03x sales, 4.69x book value, 25.37x trailing free cash flow, 21.33x EV/EBITDA, and 21.57x forward earnings on the statistics page, or about 22.87x forward earnings on the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The $39.68 price sat below the 20-day average of $40.34, the 50-day of $41.29, the 100-day of $42.54, and the 200-day of $41.20, with RSI near 44 and a weak ADX near 13, so the near-term trend is neutral to soft. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because net debt, acquisition integration, labor availability, fixed-price and project execution, data center capex cycles, foreign operations, negative GAAP common earnings, and multiple compression can all affect returns. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high after re-validating price, market cap, Q2 results, guidance, backlog, and balance sheet across StockAnalysis.com, the earnings release, the call, and the 10-Q. Return confidence is lower because adjusted metrics, acquisitions, data center demand, and the earnings multiple can change faster than reported revenue. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The business case is credible and momentum is real, but the market price requires continued organic growth, margin discipline, clean integration, improving conversion from adjusted profit to common-share GAAP earnings, and stable debt levels. | Medium |
APG AI stock forecast
The APG AI stock forecast uses scenarios rather than a single price promise. A mechanical three-year model starting from the FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of $1.73, using adjusted EPS growth of 6% to 15% and exit multiples of 16x to 24x, produced a bearish area near $33, a base area near $50, and a bullish area near $63. The analyst consensus average target is $52.20, so the base scenario roughly aligns with Street expectations while the bull and bear cases bracket execution and valuation risk.
$57 to $68
More likely if inspection, service, and monitoring revenue keeps compounding, data center and advanced manufacturing project demand stays strong, Onyx and WTech integrate cleanly, pricing and mix support margins, net leverage stays near 2x, and investors keep using forward adjusted multiples.
$45 to $54
More likely if organic growth continues in the mid to high single digits, adjusted EBITDA margin drifts toward the 14% area, the record backlog converts into revenue, cash conversion stays near or above 100% for the year, and the stock trades near the analyst average target of $52.
$29 to $37
More likely if project or acquisition integration weakens, labor and material costs outrun pricing, data center capex slows, GAAP common earnings stay deeply negative, leverage concerns increase, or the market rerates the shares toward the trailing free cash flow and adjusted EBITDA multiples of 2023.
APG AI technical analysis
APG AI technical analysis is neutral to soft as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $39.68 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average of $40.34, 50-day of $41.29, 100-day of $42.54, and 200-day of $41.20, with 14-day RSI near 44.28 and a 14-day ADX near 13.44 that points to a weak trend rather than a confirmed move. The 52-week range is $33.40 to $49.99.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $39.68 | StockAnalysis.com quote at the July 31, 2026 close; Barchart agrees on the close level. |
| Immediate support | $38.90 to $39.30 | This band sits near the July 31 daily low of $39.03 and the round $39 area, a first downside reference. |
| Major support | $37 to $38 | A loss of this zone would indicate a deeper reset below the recent consolidation range. |
| Lower support | $33.40 | This was the reported 52-week low and a key downside reference. |
| Near resistance | $40.34 to $40.50 | The 20-day moving average near $40.34 aligns with the round $40.50 area as the first upside test. |
| Next resistance | $41.20 to $41.50 | The 50-day average of $41.29 and the 200-day average of $41.20 cluster here, a key ceiling for the medium-term trend. |
| Upper resistance | $42.54 to $43.00 | The 100-day moving average near $42.54 is the next level, with the 52-week high of $49.99 well above. |
| Moving averages | 20-day $40.34; 50-day $41.29; 100-day $42.54; 200-day $41.20 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com agree on the 50-day and 200-day averages. Price is below all four, which is a soft setup. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.28; ADX 13.44 | RSI near 44 is neutral, and ADX near 13 shows a weak trend. +DI near 21.23 versus -DI near 21.12 means no clear directional pressure. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 2.85 million shares | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both place 20-day average volume near 2.8 million to 2.9 million shares, useful for judging breakout and breakdown quality. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.61; 14-day historical volatility about 20% | The reported beta indicates above-market sensitivity, and Barchart lists 14-day historical volatility near 20.36%. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $37, then $33.40 | A close below $37 would weaken the medium-term setup, and a break of $33.40 would require a fresh check of earnings, debt, and guidance assumptions. |
APG AI trading strategy
This APG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It connects price behavior with quarterly revenue, segment organic growth, adjusted EBITDA and the GAAP reconciliation, backlog, net debt, free cash flow, acquisitions, data center demand, labor availability, and guidance.
Watch for APG to reclaim and hold the $40.34 to $41.50 zone, which is the 20-day and then the 50-day plus 200-day moving average cluster, with volume and supported by healthy service revenue, record backlog conversion, and no deterioration in guidance.
A failed attempt at the moving average cluster followed by a sustained close below $39 should lower trend confidence. A close below $37 is a stronger invalidation signal.
If APG pulls back toward $37 to $39.30, compare the price with backlog, free cash flow, recurring service revenue growth, net debt, and the quality of the Onyx and WTech businesses before treating it as value.
Do not assume a lower price is attractive if leverage rises, integration costs expand, project margins weaken, data center demand slows, or adjusted earnings diverge further from common-share GAAP earnings.
Track Q3 2026 and full-year results, revenue by Safety Services and Specialty Services, organic growth, adjusted EBITDA and the GAAP reconciliation, backlog, adjusted free cash flow conversion, net debt, buyback pace, M&A deployment, and the 2027 outlook.
Position sizing should reflect APG higher-than-market beta near 1.61 and the possibility that growth or valuation assumptions change before reported revenue does.
Investment research summary
Customers pay APi to install, inspect, service, monitor, and repair fire and life safety, security, elevator, escalator, and specialty systems that matter for asset uptime, safety, and compliance, with a long-term goal of more than 60% of revenue from inspection, service, and monitoring.
APi benefits from technical labor, local operating density, customer relationships, safety and regulatory knowledge, and recurring inspection and service touchpoints. Its moat is execution and trust, not a monopoly or proprietary product.
The thesis fails if acquisitions such as Onyx and WTech are poorly integrated, net debt becomes restrictive, project and labor costs outrun pricing, data center capex slows, service growth fades, customers defer work, or the market stops valuing adjusted earnings at a premium.
Russell Becker has led APi since 2004. The key question is whether management can keep customer and project selection disciplined while deploying capital into bolt-on acquisitions, completing larger deals such as Onyx and WTech, and maintaining free cash flow conversion toward the 115% target.
Safety regulation, aging assets, critical infrastructure, data centers, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing, and recurring inspection requirements can support demand. Data centers are a notable driver and may be about 10% to 12% of 2026 revenue, but the industry still faces labor, materials, project timing, and capex-cycle exposure.
The current price reflects confidence in record backlog, raised guidance, and earnings growth. The stock trades at a premium to current GAAP common-share profitability, so margin of safety depends on sustained adjusted earnings growth converting into cash and common-share economics.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| APG price | $39.68 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $17.15 billion, computed as $39.68 x 432.16 million shares outstanding with 0.01% deviation from the reported figure | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 net revenues | $2.25 billion, up 13.3% versus $1.99 billion, with 10.1% organic growth | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings release and call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 adjusted profitability | Adjusted gross margin of 31.2%, adjusted EBITDA up 14.3% with a 13.8% margin up 10 basis points, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.44 up 12.8% | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 segment results | Safety Services revenue of $1.48 billion up 8.8% with 4.7% organic growth and a 17% segment margin; Specialty Services revenue of $773 million up 22.9% with 22% organic growth and an 11.9% segment margin up 60 basis points | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Record backlog | Backlog surpassed $5 billion for the first time in company history, up roughly 25% year over year, with larger and longer-duration projects | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 cash flow | Adjusted free cash flow of $228 million for the six months ended June 30, 2026, up $42 million versus prior year, with 68% conversion on adjusted net income and a target of about 115% for the year | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance raised | Full-year revenue of $8.875 billion to $9.025 billion (7% to 9% organic growth) and adjusted EBITDA of $1.205 billion to $1.245 billion (about 13.7% margin at the midpoint), both raised from the July 2, 2026 outlook | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue of $2.375 billion to $2.425 billion with about 8% to 10% organic growth, and adjusted EBITDA of $325 million to $335 million | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Net debt and leverage | Cash and cash equivalents of $851 million and total debt of $3.842 billion as of June 30, 2026, for net debt of about $2.99 billion and net leverage of 2.2x, below the 2.5x to 3x target | APi Group Q2 2026 Form 10-Q and earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| Capital allocation | Repurchased about 1.6 million shares for $66 million in Q2, the first repurchase under the $1 billion program; issued $500 million of 5.75% senior notes due 2034, expanded the revolving credit facility to $1 billion, and extended Term Loan B to 2033 at SOFR plus 175 | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| M&A activity | Closed Onyx-Fire in June 2026 and WTech Fire Group on July 1, 2026, completed three bolt-on acquisitions in Q2, and maintained a 2026 bolt-on M&A target of $250 million scaling toward $350 million | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call and press releases | July 30, 2026 |
| Data center exposure | Data centers may be about 10% to 12% of 2026 revenue, contributed to Q2 growth, and accounted for roughly 15% to 20% of the backlog increase | APi Group Q2 2026 earnings call | July 30, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and earnings | FY2025 revenue of $7.911 billion up 12.72%, operating income of $554 million, and GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders of about negative $288 million after acquisition-related amortization and preferred-share dividends | APi Group 2025 Form 10-K and StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM results | TTM revenue of $8.438 billion up 14.09%, operating cash flow of $782 million, free cash flow of $676 million, and GAAP net income attributable to common shareholders of about negative $248 million | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation snapshot | 2.03x sales, 4.69x book value, 25.37x trailing free cash flow, 21.33x EV/EBITDA, and 21.57x forward earnings on the statistics page | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Forward valuation and consensus | FY2026 adjusted EPS consensus of about $1.73, implying a forward PE near 22.87 to 22.94; consensus rating Strong Buy with an average price target of $52.20 and a range of $47 to $55 across 9 to 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast | July 31, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 6 Strong Buy, 3 Buy, 0 Hold, 0 Sell out of 9 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | July 31, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | RBC Capital $53, Citi $53 to $54, J.P. Morgan $50, Baird $49 to $47, UBS $56 to $52, Jefferies $52 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and TipRanks | July 31, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day moving average $40.34, 50-day $41.29, 100-day $42.54, 200-day $41.20, 14-day RSI 44.28, 14-day ADX 13.44, 14-day historical volatility about 20.36%, 52-week range $33.40 to $49.99 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 11.16 million shares short, 2.58% of shares outstanding, 3.53 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
This APG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only and is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast scenarios use available public data as of August 2, 2026 and may be wrong if earnings, acquisitions, integration, debt, cash flow, data center demand, valuation multiples, or market conditions change.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
