Amrize AG research snapshot
AMRZ AI stock analysis currently views Amrize as a North American building-solutions business with attractive local cement and aggregates positions, a broad distribution network, and exposure to infrastructure, commercial, residential, repair, and refurbishment markets. The Q1 2026 result was mixed: revenue increased 4.7% to $2.178 billion and Building Materials revenue rose 12.9%, but Building Envelope demand and margins weakened, producing a $118 million net loss in a seasonally small quarter. At the July 9, 2026 close of $50.28, AMRZ was below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. This AMRZ AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a precise price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$50.28 close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$27.48B reported market cap, with $27.83B from the July 9 price times 553.52M shares
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
North American building-materials spin-off with strong Building Materials momentum, softer roofing results, leverage, and a cautious technical setup
Trend status
Below the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 42 and the recent $49 to $50 area acting as the first support reference
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 11, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Amrize supplies cement, aggregates, ready-mix and other building materials, plus roofing and building-envelope systems, to North American infrastructure, commercial, residential, repair, and refurbishment customers. | Medium-high |
| Moat | Local plants, reserves, logistics density, customer relationships, distribution coverage, brands, and project specifications can create regional advantages, but they do not remove construction cyclicality. | Medium |
| Management | Chairman and CEO Jan Jenisch leads the standalone company and has prioritized growth projects, acquisitions, dividends, and a $1 billion repurchase authorization. Standalone capital allocation still needs a longer public record. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $11.815B and net income was $1.182B. Q1 2026 revenue grew 4.7% to $2.178B, while the seasonal quarter recorded a $118M net loss and $192M adjusted EBITDA. | High |
| Valuation | At $50.28, verified trailing valuation was about 24.1x EPS, 2.1x book value, and 21.1x free cash flow per share. That is not a distressed valuation and depends on earnings recovery. | High |
| Technical trend | The July 9 reference price was below the 50-day average of $52.82 and 200-day average of $53.86. RSI near 41.58 indicates weak momentum but not an extreme oversold reading. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include construction demand, residential roofing softness, weather, input and freight costs, pricing execution, debt, acquisition integration, permitting, environmental obligations, and multiple compression. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | Reported facts have good source support, while short standalone history and daily market movement reduce confidence in return forecasts. | Medium-high data confidence |
| Investment certainty | The upside case requires Building Materials strength and margin recovery to outweigh Building Envelope softness. The available evidence supports watchlist research rather than a certainty claim. | Medium-low |
AMRZ AI stock forecast
The AMRZ AI stock forecast starts with the $50.28 July 9 close and a $2.84 guidance-derived 2026 EPS proxy. The proxy applies the midpoint of management adjusted EBITDA guidance, an approximate depreciation and amortization run rate, management interest guidance, and the midpoint tax-rate range. The audited three-year scenario model returned about $45.20, $71.60, and $101.00 before dividends. Those outputs are valuation anchors, not forecasts or promises.
$95 to $105
More likely if cement and aggregates volume stays strong, pricing offsets input costs, Building Envelope demand improves after price actions, adjusted EBITDA reaches or exceeds the $3.25B to $3.34B guidance range, buybacks reduce shares, and investors accept a mid-20s earnings multiple.
$68 to $75
More likely if revenue follows the guided 4% to 6% growth range, margins recover gradually, roofing stabilizes, leverage remains controlled, and earnings compound near a high-single-digit rate with a roughly 20x multiple.
$42 to $48
More likely if residential or commercial demand weakens, roofing price-cost remains unfavorable, weather or input costs disrupt margins, integration spending rises, rates pressure construction, or the equity rerates toward a mid-teens multiple.
AMRZ AI technical analysis
AMRZ AI technical analysis is cautious as of the July 11, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis showed a $50.28 July 9 close, 50-day and 200-day moving averages of $52.82 and $53.86, RSI of 41.58, and 20-day average volume of 2.90 million shares. The company has only a short independent trading history, so these levels are reference zones rather than mature long-term support and resistance.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $50.28 | July 9, 2026 closing reference used for valuation and market-cap calculations. |
| Immediate support | $49 to $50 | The July 9 intraday range was $49.44 to $50.43, making this the first nearby price reference. |
| Secondary support | $44 to $45 | This area is near the reported 52-week low of $44.12 and the three-year bearish scenario anchor. |
| Near resistance | $52.82 | The 50-day moving average is the first trend-reclaim test. |
| Major resistance | $53.86 to $54 | The 200-day moving average creates the next resistance zone after a 50-day reclaim. |
| Moving averages | 50-day $52.82, 200-day $53.86 | Price below both averages signals a weak to neutral trend until those levels are reclaimed. |
| Momentum | RSI 41.58 | Momentum is weak but not deeply oversold, so a reversal needs confirmation. |
| Volume | 20-day average 2.90M shares | A move through moving-average resistance is stronger when volume exceeds this reference. |
| Volatility | Short standalone trading history | No mature five-year beta is available, so use position sizing and event risk rather than a precise beta assumption. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $44 | A break below the reported 52-week low weakens the mean-reversion case and calls for a fresh review of earnings assumptions. |
AMRZ AI trading strategy
This AMRZ AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It connects price action with cement and aggregates volumes, roofing demand, price-cost, adjusted EBITDA guidance, free cash flow, net debt, and capital-allocation updates.
Monitor for a close above $52.82 and then $53.86 with volume above the 20-day average, alongside evidence that Building Envelope price-cost is improving and 2026 EBITDA guidance remains intact.
A failed reclaim or a close below $49 should reduce confidence. Reassess if earnings or guidance show that roofing weakness is spreading beyond the expected seasonal pattern.
If AMRZ tests $44 to $50 while guidance, net leverage, and cement and aggregates demand remain intact, compare the price with the verified 24.1x trailing EPS and 21.1x free-cash-flow references before assuming value.
Do not average down solely on price. A deterioration in project starts, margin, debt, or capital allocation can make a lower quote less attractive rather than safer.
Track revenue by segment, cement and aggregates volume and pricing, roofing volume, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, net debt, capex, PB Materials integration, repurchases, and the August 2026 earnings update.
Size exposure for the company’s short independent history, construction and weather sensitivity, and the possibility that consensus estimates change faster than reported historical figures.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Amrize for materials and building-envelope systems that help construct, repair, and protect infrastructure, commercial properties, and homes across North America.
The moat is mostly local and operational: permitted plants and reserves, freight economics, distribution coverage, brands, customer relationships, and the ability to serve projects from foundation to rooftop.
The thesis fails if a construction slowdown persists, roofing demand and price-cost do not recover, costs outrun prices, acquisitions disappoint, debt rises, weather disrupts operations, or a new standalone cost structure erodes returns.
Jan Jenisch combines the chairman and CEO roles. The key test is whether growth capex, acquisitions, dividend payments, and repurchases increase per-share value while net leverage remains disciplined.
Infrastructure, data-center, industrial, repair, and refurbishment activity can support long-run demand, but residential demand, funding timing, rates, and local project cycles determine shorter-term results.
The July 9 price implied roughly 24.1x trailing earnings and 21.1x trailing free cash flow. The margin of safety is limited unless management converts guided growth and margin improvement into durable per-share earnings.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 9 closing price and market data | $50.28 close, 553.52M shares, $27.48B reported market cap | StockAnalysis AMRZ statistics | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net loss | $2.178B revenue, $118M net loss | Amrize Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | Building Materials $1.500B, Building Envelope $678M | Amrize Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 11, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $11.815B revenue, $1.182B net income | Amrize FY2025 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash, gross debt, and net debt | $1.099B cash, $6.046B gross debt, $4.947B net debt | Amrize Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| 2026 management guidance | $12.29B to $12.52B revenue and $3.25B to $3.34B adjusted EBITDA | Amrize Q1 2026 earnings release | July 11, 2026 |
| Revenue cross-check | Q1 2026 $2.178B and FY2025 $11.815B | Macrotrends AMRZ revenue history | July 11, 2026 |
This AMRZ page is an informational research tool, not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell. Forecasts are scenarios built from available data and assumptions, can be wrong, and should be checked against current company filings and market conditions.
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