Amkor Technology, Inc. research snapshot
AMKR AI stock analysis as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff reads Amkor Technology as an advanced packaging and test leader with record Q2 2026 results, but a soft Q3 communications outlook triggered a sharp post-earnings selloff. The stock closed at $49.87 on July 31, 2026, down about 23% from before the July 27 report, with a market capitalization of $12.39 billion, verified as $49.87 times 248.45 million shares with 0.00% deviation. Q2 revenue was a record $1.9 billion, up 26% year over year, with EPS of $0.70, gross margin of 16.8%, and record computing and automotive and industrial revenue. Q3 revenue guidance of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion came in below the roughly $2.12 billion consensus because of the SiP move to Vietnam, memory supply constraints, and build pattern changes, while Q3 EPS guidance of $0.72 to $0.82 exceeded consensus. The multi-year NVIDIA partnership announced July 23, 2026 and the TSMC 10-year agreement signed in June 2026 strengthen the long-term advanced packaging and US capacity story. Heavy 2026 capex of $2.5 billion to $3 billion leaves trailing free cash flow negative near -$172 million, and the stock now trades below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages. The AMKR AI stock forecast uses scenarios, not a certain price prediction. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$49.87
Market cap
$12.39 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Advanced packaging momentum with heavy capex and near-term communications headwinds
Trend status
Below the 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages after a sharp post-earnings decline
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Amkor is the global outsourced semiconductor assembly and test leader, packaging and testing chips for computing, communications, automotive and industrial, and consumer end markets, with TTM revenue near $7.46 billion and record Q2 2026 revenue. | High |
| Moat | Customer qualification cycles, manufacturing scale across Arizona, Korea, Vietnam, Portugal, Taiwan, and Japan, advanced packaging platforms such as 2.5D and HDFO, and new long-term agreements with NVIDIA, TSMC, and AMD create real switching friction and planning visibility. | Medium-high |
| Management | Kevin Engel is executing a capacity and advanced-packaging buildout with record results: Q2 2026 revenue up 26% year over year, EPS up more than three times in the first half, utilization up from the 50s into the 70s, and a $1.15 billion 0% convertible issued in May 2026. The test is whether $2.5 billion to $3 billion of 2026 capex earns returns through the cycle. | Medium |
| Financial trend | Record H1 2026 revenue up 26% year over year, gross margin up 360 basis points, operating income more than doubled, and EPS more than tripled versus H1 2025. Q2 2026 gross margin reached 16.8% and operating margin 10.5%, with trailing free cash flow negative near -$172 million because capex of about $1.37 billion exceeded operating cash flow. | High |
| Valuation | At the $49.87 close, financial_rigor.py calculated 22.36x trailing EPS, 2.67x book value, and 1.66x sales, while StockAnalysis.com listed 22.39x trailing PE, 18.06x forward PE, and 9.48x EV/EBITDA. The market is pricing a strong earnings recovery but a compressed multiple after the Q3 guide. | Medium |
| Technical trend | The stock closed at $49.87 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day moving average near $62.42, 50-day near $71.16, 100-day near $65.43, and 200-day near $53.74, with 14-day RSI near 35.54 and 14-day ADX near 24.88 with a bearish -DI of 35.57 above +DI of 19.02. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is elevated because the Q3 communications guide missed consensus on the SiP move, memory constraints, and build pattern changes, trailing free cash flow is negative, 2026 capex is $2.5 billion to $3 billion, the stock has a 2.21 beta and 143% 14-day historical volatility, and customer concentration remains significant. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financial data, balance sheet math, and market-cap verification that matched across multiple sources with 0.00% deviation. Medium for forward returns because utilization, memory supply, AI ramps, and investor multiples can change quickly. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-low certainty. The long-term advanced packaging thesis is stronger after NVIDIA and TSMC, but near-term revenue guidance, negative free cash flow, and extreme volatility mean the outcome depends on execution and cycle timing. | Medium-low |
AMKR AI stock forecast
The AMKR AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $49.87 July 31, 2026 close. A mechanical financial_rigor.py three-year sensitivity model using the $2.57 FY2026 consensus EPS estimate produced about $88.80 in a bull case, $61.60 in a base case, and $30.80 in a bear case using 20%, 10%, and 0% EPS growth with 20x, 18x, and 12x exit P/E ratios. These outputs are scenarios, not price promises.
$80 to $105
More likely if computing revenue keeps growing near the guided 30% sequential pace in Q3, NVIDIA and TSMC partnerships convert into strong US loading, communications stabilizes after the SiP move, AI and HPC demand stays strong, and the market holds a mid-20s multiple on higher EPS.
$55 to $72
More likely if computing and automotive and industrial keep growing, the communications decline lasts through the first half of next year as management outlined, gross margin reaches the 18.5% to 19.5% Q3 guide, capex stays heavy, and the stock trades near an 18x to 20x forward multiple.
$30 to $45
More likely if the communications decline extends beyond current guidance, memory supply constraints and build pattern changes hurt volumes, AI ramps slip, capex overwhelms free cash flow, customer concentration bites, or the market applies a 12x area multiple to near-peak earnings.
AMKR AI technical analysis
AMKR AI technical analysis is short-term bearish as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $49.87 on July 31, 2026, below its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 35.54 and 14-day ADX near 24.88 with a bearish directional setup. Confirm live chart data before acting because this page has no request-time market-data calls.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $49.87 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote at the July 31, 2026 close; market cap math uses 248.45 million shares outstanding. |
| Near support | $46 to $48 | The post-earnings low area around $46.30 formed on July 28 to July 29, 2026. The stock closed the week at $49.87 after reclaiming that zone, so it is a planning level, not a guaranteed floor. |
| Next support | $43 to $45 | A measured downside extension below the post-earnings low, before the area that preceded the NVIDIA partnership rally. |
| Near resistance | $53.74 to $56 | The 200-day moving average near $53.74 is the first overhead level, with minor supply up to the $56 area. |
| Next resistance | $62 to $66 | The 20-day moving average near $62.42 and the 100-day near $65.43 form the next overhead cluster on a recovery. |
| 50-day moving average | $71.16 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 50-day moving average near $71.16 on July 31, 2026, well above price. |
| 200-day moving average | $53.74 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both reported the 200-day trend line near $53.74, just above the current price. |
| Momentum | Weak to neutral | 14-day RSI was near 35.54 and 9-day RSI near 33.74, approaching oversold but not extreme. 14-day ADX near 24.88 with -DI of 35.57 above +DI of 19.02 points to downside directional pressure. |
| Volume | About 6.1 to 6.3 million shares | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 6.11 million and Barchart near 6.28 million on July 31, 2026, useful for judging whether the $46 to $48 rebound has conviction. |
| Volatility | Extreme | Barchart reported 14-day historical volatility near 143% and 9-day near 170%, with a 2.21 five-year beta, so position sizing must account for very large daily swings. |
| Invalidation | Sustained close below $46 | A decisive close below the $46 to $46.30 support zone would signal another leg down toward $43 to $45 and require a fresh review. |
AMKR AI trading strategy
This AMKR AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It focuses on the relationship between the $46 support zone, the 200-day moving average near $53.74, the $62 to $66 overhead cluster, volume, extreme volatility, and quarterly execution.
The short-term trend is down while price stays below the 200-day moving average near $53.74. Watch for a reclaim of $53.74 and then the $62 to $66 cluster on rising volume before treating the downtrend as reversing.
Define invalidation before entry. A failed reclaim or a close back below the reclaimed zone calls for reduced exposure or a new review.
Treat $46 to $48 as a watch zone only when price stabilizes, RSI stops falling, and selling volume dries up. Do not assume the level must hold, especially right after a 23% post-earnings decline.
A sustained close below $46 invalidates this setup. Use position size that can tolerate AMKR’s extreme volatility and 2.21 beta.
Track Q3 revenue and gross margin against the $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion and 18.5% to 19.5% guidance, computing growth near 30% sequentially, the communications decline, utilization, 2026 capex, NVIDIA and TSMC program milestones, memory supply, and cash and debt.
Revisit the thesis if communications weakness extends, computing growth slows, gross margin slips, free cash flow turns more negative, or major customer programs shift volume.
Investment research summary
Amkor packages and tests semiconductors for chip companies. Customers pay for manufacturing scale, yield management, qualified processes, geographic flexibility, and advanced packaging and test capability that lets them move complex chips into AI, computing, automotive, communications, and consumer products without owning every assembly and test facility.
The moat rests on qualification cycles, manufacturing execution, customer process integration, global capacity, and advanced packaging platforms such as 2.5D, HDFO, and SiP. It deepened in 2026 with a 10-year TSMC agreement and a multi-year NVIDIA partnership, but it is not absolute because customers are concentrated and competitors such as ASE and JCET offer alternatives.
The thesis fails if the semiconductor cycle cools while new factories and equipment are still absorbing cash, if the communications decline from the SiP move extends through the first half of next year as management warned, if memory supply constraints persist, if advanced packaging ramps underperform, or if a major customer shifts volume or pricing power.
Kevin Engel and CFO Megan Faust delivered record Q2 revenue and more than doubled first-half operating income while guiding Q3 gross margin to 18.5% to 19.5%. Management issued $1.15 billion of 0% convertible debt in May 2026, kept 2026 capex at $2.5 billion to $3 billion, and emphasized Arizona Phase I, Korea, Vietnam, and Portugal expansion. Capital discipline and returns on the buildout are the central management questions.
Advanced packaging has moved onto the critical path of AI and high-performance computing performance. Deeper partnerships, earlier design engagement, longer planning horizons, and multi-year capacity agreements from NVIDIA, TSMC, and AMD reflect a structural shift. The same trend also requires large, well-timed capital investment and faces technology and demand risk.
The $49.87 reference price equated to about 22.36x trailing EPS and roughly 19.4x the $2.57 FY2026 consensus EPS in the tool calculation, with StockAnalysis.com listing 22.39x trailing, 18.06x forward, and 9.48x EV/EBITDA. The market appears to require continued earnings growth and margin expansion, leaving a thin margin for a weak second half.
Q2 2026 results, the June 30, 2026 balance sheet, FY2025 figures, and market-cap math were cross-validated between the Q2 2026 earnings release and call, the Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and StockAnalysis.com during the August 2, 2026 refresh, with market cap verified at $49.87 times 248.45 million shares at 0.00% deviation.
For a long-term owner, the key question is whether advanced packaging growth from NVIDIA, TSMC, AMD, and computing programs can create returns that exceed the cost and timing risk of the capacity buildout, and whether the guided communications decline is a transition or the start of a cycle downdraft. The answer should be updated with each earnings release.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR price | $49.87 at the July 31, 2026 close, down about 23% from before the July 27 earnings report | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and news feed | August 2, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $12.39 billion, computed as $49.87 x 248.45 million shares outstanding | StockAnalysis.com quote and share statistics, financial_rigor.py verified at 0.00% deviation | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Record revenue of $1.9 billion up 26% year over year and 13% sequentially, EPS of $0.70, gross margin of 16.8% up 250 basis points sequentially, gross profit of $319 million up 33%, operating income of $200 million at 10.5%, net income of $174 million, EBITDA of $400 million at 21%, and a 14% effective tax rate with a $14 million discrete tax benefit | Amkor Q2 2026 earnings release and earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 performance | Revenue up 26% year over year to a record first half, gross margin up 360 basis points, operating income more than doubled, EPS more than tripled versus H1 2025, main stream revenue up 21%, and average utilization improved from the 50s into the 70s with several platforms at full capacity | Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 end market detail | Computing revenue rose 20% sequentially to a record, automotive and industrial rose 17% to a record, consumer rose 15%, and communications rose 6% with double-digit iOS growth and Android down 20% on memory supply dynamics | Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 guidance | Revenue of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion versus a roughly $2.12 billion consensus, gross margin of 18.5% to 19.5%, operating expenses of about $140 million, net income of $180 million to $205 million, and EPS of $0.72 to $0.82 versus a roughly $0.65 consensus | Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call and TheFly consensus summary | July 27, 2026 |
| Q3 2026 communications outlook | Communications revenue expected to decline high single digits sequentially, a departure from seasonal patterns, driven by the SiP move to Vietnam, memory supply constraints, and build pattern changes, with the headwind expected to extend into Q4 and the first half of next year | Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| 2026 capital expenditure | Capex of $2.5 billion to $3 billion for 2026, with 65% to 70% for facilities including Arizona Phase I, 30% to 35% for HDFO, test, and other advanced packaging capacity, and the remainder for R&D and quality | Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call | July 27, 2026 |
| Balance sheet at June 30, 2026 | Cash and cash equivalents of $1.552 billion, short-term investments of $960 million, total liquidity of $3.6 billion, short-term debt of $150.8 million, long-term debt of $2.335 billion, total debt of about $2.5 billion, and debt-to-EBITDA of 1.8x, after issuing $1.15 billion of 0% convertible notes in early May 2026 | Amkor Q2 2026 Form 10-Q, SEC EDGAR XBRL, and earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| NVIDIA partnership | Multi-year strategic partnership announced July 23, 2026 to expand advanced packaging and test capacity in the US for next-generation AI infrastructure, reported by Reuters and Business Wire at about $1.5 billion, with the prepayment expected in 2027 and returned as services provided in the US over a five to ten year period | Reuters, Business Wire, and Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call | July 23, 2026 |
| TSMC partnership | 10-year advanced packaging and test agreement announced June 16, 2026 to expand US capacity and strengthen the semiconductor supply chain in Arizona, combining TSMC wafer fabrication with Amkor advanced packaging and test | Business Wire and Amkor Q2 2026 earnings call | June 16, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | FY2025 revenue of $6.708 billion up 6.18% and net income attributable to Amkor of $373.9 million, cross-checked across StockAnalysis.com and the 2025 Form 10-K | StockAnalysis.com financials and Amkor 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financials | TTM revenue of $7.46 billion up 17.9%, TTM net income of $555.45 million up 82.9%, and TTM EPS of $2.23, with advanced products at about $6.19 billion of TTM revenue and main stream products at about $1.27 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials | August 2, 2026 |
| Trailing free cash flow | Operating cash flow of $1.19 billion against capital expenditures of $1.37 billion over the trailing twelve months, giving free cash flow of about -$172 million, because the 2026 capex program is running well ahead of operating cash flow | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 22.39x trailing PE, 18.06x forward PE, 1.66x sales, 2.66x book value, 0.87 PEG, 9.48x EV/EBITDA, 12.51% ROE, and a 0.67% dividend yield | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $77.11 across 10 analysts, median $75, low $65 and high $92, implying about 54.6% upside from the $49.87 close | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst rating mix, July 2026 | 4 Strong Buy, 2 Buy, 4 Hold, and 0 Sell out of 10 analysts | StockAnalysis.com forecast recommendation trends | August 2, 2026 |
| Recent analyst actions | B. Riley lowered its target to $65 from $75 with a Hold, Goldman Sachs held at $65, Morgan Stanley raised to $70 from $69 with a Hold, Needham kept Buy at $90, and KeyBanc maintained a Hold, all on July 28, 2026, after UBS upgraded to Buy from Neutral with a $90 target on July 24, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and news feed | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate of $7.67 billion up 14.33% with EPS of $2.57 up 71.58%, and FY2027 revenue of $8.63 billion with EPS of $2.82, with 3-year revenue growth forecast of 12.33% and 3-year EPS growth of 30.51% | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| Short interest | 8.67 million shares short, 3.49% of shares outstanding, 7.98% of float, and 1.47 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 20-day SMA near $62.42, 50-day SMA near $71.16, 100-day SMA near $65.43, 200-day SMA near $53.74, 14-day RSI near 35.54, 14-day ADX near 24.88 with -DI of 35.57, and 14-day historical volatility near 143% | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | August 2, 2026 |
This AMKR AI stock analysis is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future return. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available filings, quote snapshots, and third-party data as of the stated cutoff date. They may be wrong, incomplete, or outdated after new earnings, partnership updates, market moves, or macro conditions. Verify current market data and consider independent professional advice before making an investment decision.
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