Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. research snapshot
AMG AI stock analysis currently reads Affiliated Managers Group as a high-quality investment management platform that partners with independent firms, is increasingly weighted toward private markets and liquid alternatives, and is delivering record client flows and strong cash earnings. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, AMG closed at $366.73 on July 31, 2026 with an implied market capitalization of about $9.69 billion. Q2 2026 results, reported July 30, 2026, showed Economic EPS up 54% year over year, record AUM of $942 billion, and record quarterly alternative inflows near $29 billion. The trend is constructive, but the stock sits near its 52-week high and the balance sheet still carries meaningful debt, so the AMG AI stock forecast remains scenario-based rather than a promise. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$366.73 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$9.69 billion
AI score
79 / 100
Rating
High-quality alternatives-led asset manager with record flows, strong earnings growth, and a limited margin of safety near highs
Trend status
Uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with RSI back to a neutral zone after a July pullback
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AMG partners with independent investment firms and supports their growth while preserving their ownership culture. Affiliates earn asset-based and performance-based fees from institutional, retail, wealth, and private-market clients, with record AUM of $942.4 billion at June 30, 2026. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from AMG capital formation, distribution, partnership expertise, and its affiliate network. It is a relationship and execution moat rather than a hard technology monopoly, so it must be renewed through affiliate and client outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Management | President and CEO Jay C. Horgen has led AMG since 2019. The company repurchased about $375 million of stock in the first half of 2026 and continued to add partnerships, including BBH Credit Partners and HighBrook Investors. | High |
| Financial trend | Q2 2026 revenue rose to $640.7 million, controlling-interest net income was $185.9 million, Economic EPS jumped 54% to $8.29, and Adjusted EBITDA rose 44% to $316.0 million. TTM EPS was about $28.9. | High |
| Valuation | At $366.73, verified math gives 12.69x TTM EPS, 3.19x book value, 9.18x free cash flow, a 10.90% FCF yield, and a 9.20x forward PE. The low dividend yield means most shareholder return depends on earnings growth, buybacks, and valuation support. | High |
| Technical trend | AMG closed above the $343.78 50-day average and the $299.63 200-day average, with RSI at 56.62 after a July pullback and a 52-week price change of 74.19%. Momentum remains constructive, but the July 15 high of $382.75 is a nearby ceiling. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. The main risks are market-driven AUM changes, reversal of alternative inflows, long-only outflows, lower fee rates, volatile performance fees, expensive partnerships, $3.0 billion of debt, $2.5 billion of goodwill, regulation, and partner or key-person departures. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The research has high confidence for reported facts and exact math, but medium confidence for the forecast because future flows, market levels, and performance fees can change the earnings path. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AMG has real momentum and a credible strategy, but the current price near the 52-week high needs continued alternatives growth and disciplined capital allocation to create a clear margin of safety. | Medium |
AMG AI stock forecast
The AMG AI stock forecast uses a three-year EPS and valuation sensitivity around the $366.73 close. Using TTM EPS of $28.91, the verified model produced about $791 in the bullish case, $510 in the base case, and $223 in the bearish case before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price promises. The bullish case needs sustained alternative inflows, strong fee growth, and a premium multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if markets fall, alternative flows reverse, long-only outflows widen, performance fees decline, or debt and capital deployment reduce flexibility.
$750 to $830
More likely if private markets and liquid alternatives keep attracting capital, record flow momentum continues, new partnerships add earnings without excessive dilution, repurchases continue at sensible prices, and investors support an 18x multiple on 15% annual EPS growth. The verified model point was about $791.
$480 to $540
More likely if alternative inflows remain positive but normalize, performance fees contribute without another step change, AMG compounds EPS near 8%, and the market applies about 14x earnings. The verified model point was about $510, which requires continued execution to be reached.
$200 to $245
More likely if market levels and AUM decline, clients withdraw from higher-fee strategies, long-only outflows widen, performance fees fall, affiliate results weaken, debt costs stay high, or the market compresses AMG toward a 9x multiple on a 5% annual EPS decline. The verified model point was about $223.
AMG AI technical analysis
AMG AI technical analysis starts from the July 31, 2026 close of $366.73. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $343.78, a 200-day moving average of $299.63, RSI of 56.62, beta of 1.12, and 20-day average volume of about 258,614 shares, with a 52-week price change of 74.19%. The trend is positive, price is above both averages, and momentum reset to neutral after the July 21 drop of nearly 7%. The July 15 high of $382.75 is the main overhead test. Recheck these levels after the Q2 2026 10-Q and the next earnings release.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $366.73 | Latest verified close used for this static page, reported for July 31, 2026. |
| Near support | $358 to $366 | The late-July trading range, with closes near $358 to $370, creates the first short-term support band. |
| Secondary support | $343 to $346 | The 50-day moving average near $343.78 is the first intermediate trend test if the recent consolidation breaks. |
| Major support | $296 to $304 | The 200-day moving average near $299.63 is the long-term trend reference and a deeper invalidation area. |
| Resistance | $375 to $383 | The July 31 high of $375.41 is the immediate breakout reference, with the 52-week high of $382.75 from July 15 as the next ceiling. |
| 50-day moving average | $343.78 | Price was above this average at the cutoff, supporting a constructive intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $299.63 | Price was well above this average, so a close below it would represent a significant trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI 56.62 | Momentum reset from an overbought reading near 69 in early July to a neutral zone, which reduces immediate pullback risk without confirming a new breakout. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 258,614 shares | The July 21 decline printed about 910,000 shares, well above the average. A breakout above $383 should be judged against this participation baseline rather than price alone. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.12 and 52-week change +74.19% | AMG has moved more than the broad market over the measured beta period and has had a large one-year advance with sharp single-day swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $343.78, then $299.63 | A close below the 50-day average weakens the short-term setup. A close below the 200-day average challenges the long-term bullish thesis. |
AMG AI trading strategy
The AMG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live quotes, moving averages, the Q2 2026 10-Q filing, AUM and net-flow data, performance-fee commentary, debt levels, affiliate investments, position sizing, and clear invalidation rules.
Watch whether AMG can hold the $358 to $366 zone and clear the $375 to $383 resistance with volume near or above the 20-day average. Confirmation is stronger if the Q2 2026 10-Q and future releases confirm continued alternative inflows, positive Economic EPS momentum, and no deterioration in capital flexibility.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the $343.78 50-day average weakens the trend setup. Do not treat a new high as confirmation if it arrives with weak volume or negative flow and earnings news.
If AMG pulls back toward the $343 to $346 50-day average without a new fundamental problem, compare the price move with AUM, aggregate fees, Economic EPS, and market levels. A deeper pullback toward the $299 200-day average would demand a fresh thesis review.
Do not assume a moving average is support when clients are leaving higher-fee strategies, long-only outflows are widening, performance fees are reversing, or debt and new-investment needs are increasing.
Track AUM by private markets, liquid alternatives, equities, and multi-asset and fixed income; net client cash flows; asset-based and performance-based fees; Economic EPS; Adjusted EBITDA; cash; debt; share repurchases; affiliate equity purchases; and new partnerships.
Reduce confidence if alternative inflows slow sharply, long-only outflows widen, performance fees normalize below expectations, an affiliate loses key talent, goodwill is impaired, or valuation stays high while EPS growth decelerates.
Investment research summary
AMG is paid to be a strategic partner and capital allocator for independent investment managers. Its Affiliates earn fees for managing client capital, while AMG supplies capital formation, distribution, operating resources, and strategic support without forcing every firm into one centralized culture. AUM reached a record $942.4 billion at June 30, 2026.
The moat is AMG reputation and network among partner-owned managers, its ability to fund growth, its distribution capabilities, and a model that lets talented investment teams keep meaningful ownership. Switching costs are softer than in software, so investment performance, record alternative flows, and partner trust remain decisive.
The thesis fails if AUM falls, alternative inflows reverse, long-only outflows widen, performance fees decline, affiliate investment results weaken, fee pressure spreads, key partners leave, acquisitions are overpaid, or debt and goodwill become constraints. The stock traded near $382 in mid-July, and a high price can magnify the damage from a modest earnings miss.
Jay C. Horgen has been President and CEO since 2019. The company repurchased about $375 million of stock in the first half of 2026 and added partnerships with BBH Credit Partners and HighBrook Investors. The continuing test is whether capital is deployed at attractive returns across the cycle.
The long-term trend favors private markets, liquid alternatives, customized wealth solutions, and differentiated investment products. AMG is positioned in those areas, but the industry remains competitive and exposed to fee compression, regulation, market performance, liquidity cycles, and changing client allocations.
At $366.73, AMG traded at 12.69x TTM EPS, 3.19x book value, and 9.18x TTM free cash flow, with a 9.20x forward PE. Net debt was about $2.59 billion at June 30, 2026. The verified three-scenario model produced about $791, $510, and $223. Margin of safety is not obvious at a price near the 52-week high unless alternatives growth and buyback discipline persist.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMG price | $366.73 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical prices and AMG historical lookup | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.69 billion, verified as $366.73 x 26.41 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 26.41 million current shares, down about 10.6% year over year as buybacks reduced the count | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 results | Revenue $640.7 million, net income controlling interest $185.9 million, diluted EPS $6.95, Economic EPS $8.29, and Adjusted EBITDA $316.0 million | AMG Q2 2026 earnings release, GlobeNewswire, July 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| First-half 2026 results | Net income controlling interest $296.3 million, diluted EPS $10.76, Economic EPS $16.52, and Adjusted EBITDA $633.3 million | AMG Q2 2026 earnings release, GlobeNewswire, July 30, 2026 | August 3, 2026 |
| AUM and client flows | Record AUM of $942.4 billion at June 30, 2026, up about 22% year over year, with Q2 net client cash flows of $12.9 billion including record alternative inflows of about $29 billion | AMG Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | Cash and cash equivalents $411.0 million and total debt $3,004.0 million at June 30, 2026, or about $2.59 billion of net debt; total equity $3,933.7 million | AMG Q2 2026 earnings release balance sheet and StockAnalysis | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM financials | Revenue about $2.27 billion, EPS about $28.9, operating cash flow $1.06 billion, and free cash flow $1.06 billion | StockAnalysis financials and statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue moved from $2.412 billion in 2021 to $2.074 billion in 2025, with TTM revenue near $2.27 billion; free cash flow moved from $1.251 billion in 2021 to $967.1 million in 2025, with TTM FCF near $1.06 billion | StockAnalysis income statement and cash flow statement | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 12.69x PE, 3.19x PB, 9.18x P/FCF, 10.90% FCF yield, 0.01% dividend yield, and 9.20x forward PE | financial_rigor.py valuation verification and StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $343.78, 200-day MA $299.63, RSI 56.62, beta 1.12, and 20-day average volume about 258,614 shares | StockAnalysis statistics and historical prices | August 3, 2026 |
| Management and capital allocation | Jay C. Horgen has been President and CEO since 2019; AMG repurchased about $375 million of stock in the first half of 2026, including $189 million in Q2, and added partnerships with BBH Credit Partners and HighBrook Investors | AMG Q2 2026 earnings release and leadership materials | August 3, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bullish about $791, base about $510, and bearish about $223 using TTM EPS $28.91, three years, and 15%, 8%, and -5% growth with 18x, 14x, and 9x PE assumptions | financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | August 3, 2026 |
This AMG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if markets, client flows, performance fees, affiliate results, debt, regulation, or investor sentiment change.
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