Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. research snapshot
AMG AI stock analysis currently reads Affiliated Managers Group as a high-quality investment management platform that partners with independent firms, is gaining exposure to private markets and liquid alternatives, and is producing strong cash earnings and share repurchases. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, AMG closed at $366.41 on July 10, 2026 with an implied market capitalization of about $9.68 billion. The operating trend is constructive, but the stock is near recent highs and the balance sheet carries meaningful debt, so the AMG AI stock forecast is scenario-based rather than a promise. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$366.41 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$9.68 billion
AI score
76 / 100
Rating
High-quality alternatives-led asset manager with strong earnings momentum and a limited margin of safety
Trend status
Strong uptrend above the 50-day and 200-day averages, with RSI near overbought
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | AMG invests in and partners with independent investment firms, then supports their growth while retaining their ownership culture. Affiliates earn asset-based and performance-based fees from institutional, retail, wealth, and private-market clients. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from AMG’s capital formation, distribution, partnership expertise, affiliate network, and ability to preserve entrepreneurial cultures. It is a relationship and execution moat, not a hard technology monopoly, so it must be renewed through affiliate and client outcomes. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Jay C. Horgen has led AMG since 2019 after serving as CFO from 2011 to 2019. Management committed more than $1 billion to five growth investments in 2025 and repurchased about $186 million of stock in Q1 2026. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $2.074 billion and net income attributable to controlling interest was $716.6 million. Q1 2026 consolidated revenue rose 10% to $544.9 million, while Economic EPS increased 58% year over year to $8.23. | High |
| Valuation | At $366.41, the verified math gives 14.84x TTM EPS, 3.14x book value, 9.17x free cash flow, and a 10.91% FCF yield. The low dividend yield means most shareholder return depends on earnings growth, buybacks, and valuation support. | High |
| Technical trend | AMG closed above the $324.57 50-day average and $290.34 200-day average, with RSI at 68.97 and a 52-week price change of 79.76%. Momentum is strong, but the RSI and proximity to the July 10 high of $369.94 make the setup extended. | Medium-high |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high. The main risks are market-driven AUM changes, affiliate or product underperformance, lower fee rates, volatile performance fees, expensive new partnerships, debt service, regulatory requirements, and partner or key-person departures. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | The research has high confidence for reported facts and exact math, but medium confidence for the forecast because the next earnings release and future alternative-strategy flows can change the earnings path. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. AMG is a good business with a credible long-term strategy, but the current price needs continued alternatives momentum and disciplined capital allocation to create a clear margin of safety. | Medium |
AMG AI stock forecast
The AMG AI stock forecast uses a three-year EPS and valuation sensitivity around the $366.41 close. Using TTM EPS of $24.69, the audited model produced about $675.90 in the bullish case, $435.40 in the base case, and $190.50 in the bearish case before dividends. These are scenario outputs, not price promises. The bullish case needs sustained alternative-strategy inflows, strong fee growth, and a premium multiple. The bearish case becomes more likely if markets fall, performance fees reverse, affiliate earnings weaken, or debt and capital deployment reduce flexibility.
$610 to $700
More likely if private markets and liquid alternatives keep attracting capital, Q2 and later Economic EPS remain strong, new partnerships add earnings without excessive dilution, share repurchases continue at sensible prices, and investors support an 18x multiple on 15% annual EPS growth. The verified model point was $675.90.
$410 to $460
More likely if alternative inflows remain positive but normalize, performance fees contribute without another step change, AMG compounds EPS near 8%, and the market applies about 14x earnings. The verified model point was $435.40, which leaves room for upside but depends on execution.
$175 to $210
More likely if market levels and AUM decline, clients withdraw from higher-fee strategies, performance fees fall, affiliate earnings or investment returns weaken, debt costs stay high, or the market compresses AMG toward a 9x multiple on a 5% annual EPS decline. The verified model point was $190.50.
AMG AI technical analysis
AMG AI technical analysis starts from the July 10, 2026 close of $366.41. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average of $324.57, a 200-day moving average of $290.34, RSI of 68.97, 20-day average volume of 297,181 shares, beta of 1.12, and a 52-week price change of 79.76%. The trend is positive, but momentum is close to the common overbought zone and price is near the July 10 intraday high of $369.94. Recheck these levels after the July 30, 2026 earnings release.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $366.41 | Latest verified close used for this static page, reported for July 10, 2026. |
| Near support | $359 to $365 | The July 9 close near $364.96 and the recent breakout area create the first short-term support band. |
| Secondary support | $324 to $326 | The 50-day moving average near $324.57 is the first intermediate trend test if the recent advance retraces. |
| Major support | $288 to $292 | The 200-day moving average near $290.34 is the long-term trend reference and a deeper invalidation area. |
| Resistance | $370 to $380 | The July 10 high of $369.94 is the immediate breakout reference. A sustained move above it would open a round-number resistance test near $380. |
| 50-day moving average | $324.57 | Price was above this average at the cutoff, supporting a constructive intermediate trend. |
| 200-day moving average | $290.34 | Price was well above this average, so a close below it would represent a significant trend change. |
| Momentum | RSI 68.97 | Momentum is strong and close to the common 70 overbought threshold, which raises pullback risk without proving a reversal. |
| Volume | 20-day average about 297,181 shares | A breakout above $370 should be judged against this participation baseline rather than price alone. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.12 and 52-week change +79.76% | AMG has moved more than the broad market over the measured beta period and has had a large one-year price advance. |
| Invalidation | Close below $324.57, then $290.34 | A close below the 50-day average weakens the short-term setup. A close below the 200-day average challenges the long-term bullish thesis. |
AMG AI trading strategy
The AMG AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework, not personalized advice. It should be paired with live quotes, moving averages, Q2 2026 earnings, AUM and net-flow data, performance-fee commentary, debt levels, affiliate investments, position sizing, and clear invalidation rules.
Watch whether AMG can hold the $359 to $365 zone and clear $369.94 with volume near or above the 20-day average. Confirmation is stronger if Q2 results show continued alternative-strategy inflows, positive Economic EPS momentum, and no deterioration in capital flexibility.
A failed breakout followed by a close below the $324.57 50-day average weakens the trend setup. Do not treat a new high as confirmation if it arrives with weak volume or negative flow and earnings news.
If AMG pulls back toward the $324 to $326 50-day average without a new fundamental problem, compare the price move with AUM, aggregate fees, Economic EPS, and market levels. A deeper pullback toward the $290 200-day average would demand a fresh thesis review.
Do not assume a moving average is support when clients are leaving higher-fee strategies, performance fees are reversing, or debt and new-investment needs are increasing.
Track AUM by private markets, liquid alternatives, equities, and multi-asset and fixed income; net client cash flows; asset-based and performance-based fees; Economic EPS; Adjusted EBITDA; cash; debt; share repurchases; affiliate equity purchases; and new partnerships.
Reduce confidence if alternative inflows slow sharply, equity outflows spread, performance fees normalize below expectations, an affiliate loses key talent, goodwill is impaired, or valuation remains high while EPS growth decelerates.
Investment research summary
AMG is paid to be a strategic partner and capital allocator for independent investment managers. Its Affiliates earn fees for managing client capital, while AMG supplies capital formation, distribution, operating resources, and strategic support without forcing every firm into one centralized culture.
The moat is AMG’s reputation and network among partner-owned managers, its ability to fund growth, its distribution capabilities, and a model that lets talented investment teams keep meaningful ownership. Switching costs are softer than in software, so investment performance and partner trust remain decisive.
The thesis fails if AUM falls, clients move away from alternative products, performance fees reverse, affiliate investment results weaken, fee pressure spreads, key partners leave, acquisitions are overpaid, or debt and goodwill become constraints. A high stock price can magnify the damage from a modest earnings miss.
Jay C. Horgen has led AMG since 2019 after serving as CFO and overseeing new investments. The company committed more than $1 billion to five growth investments in 2025 and repurchased about $700 million of common stock in 2025. The continuing test is whether capital is deployed at attractive returns across the cycle.
The long-term trend favors private markets, liquid alternatives, customized wealth solutions, and differentiated investment products. AMG is positioned in those areas, but the industry remains competitive and exposed to fee compression, regulation, market performance, liquidity cycles, and changing client allocations.
At $366.41, AMG traded at 14.84x TTM EPS and 9.17x TTM free cash flow, while the balance sheet carried about $2.54 billion of net debt at March 31, 2026. The verified three-scenario model produced $675.90, $435.40, and $190.50. Margin of safety is not obvious unless the alternatives growth path and buyback discipline persist.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMG price | $366.41 close on July 10, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical prices and AMG historical lookup | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.68 billion, verified as $366.41 x 26.41 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 26.41 million current shares; the 2025 annual report listed 26.684 million on February 12, 2026 | StockAnalysis statistics and AMG 2025 Annual Report | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $2.0744 billion, up 1.64% from 2024 | AMG FY2025 8-K, Macrotrends, and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $716.6 million attributable to controlling interest; GAAP net income before non-controlling interests was $904.0 million | AMG FY2025 release and Macrotrends | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | Revenue $544.9 million, net income controlling interest $110.4 million, Adjusted EBITDA $317.3 million, and Economic EPS $8.23 | AMG Q1 2026 earnings release and SEC 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| AUM and client flows | AUM $882.0 billion and Q1 2026 net client cash flows $22.5 billion, with liquid alternatives and private markets leading inflows | AMG Q1 2026 earnings release and SEC 10-Q | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash $376.1 million and debt $2.9186 billion at March 31, 2026, or about $2.54 billion of net debt before other balance-sheet items | SEC Q1 2026 10-Q and StockAnalysis balance sheet | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue moved from $2.412 billion in 2021 to $2.074 billion in 2025, while FCF moved from $1.251 billion to $967.1 million, with 2025 FCF growth of 4.13% | StockAnalysis income statement and cash flow statement | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation math | 14.84x PE, 3.14x PB, 9.17x P/FCF, 10.91% FCF yield, and 0.01% dividend yield | Local financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day MA $324.57, 200-day MA $290.34, RSI 68.97, beta 1.12, and 20-day average volume about 297,181 shares | StockAnalysis statistics and historical prices | July 12, 2026 |
| Management and capital allocation | Jay C. Horgen has been CEO since 2019; AMG repurchased about $700 million of common stock in 2025 and about $186 million in Q1 2026 | AMG leadership page, FY2025 release, and Q1 2026 release | July 12, 2026 |
| Three-scenario model | Bullish $675.90, base $435.40, and bearish $190.50 using TTM EPS $24.69, three years, and 15%, 8%, and -5% growth with 18x, 14x, and 9x PE assumptions | Local financial_rigor.py three-scenario model | July 12, 2026 |
This AMG AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong if markets, client flows, performance fees, affiliate results, debt, regulation, or investor sentiment change.
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