Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. research snapshot
ALSN AI stock analysis currently reads Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. as a high-margin industrial drivetrain business with a defensible installed base, strong service economics, and a larger global footprint after acquiring Dana’s Off-Highway Drive & Motion Systems business. The stock closed at $113.78 on July 9, 2026, implying about $9.44 billion of equity value using 82.94 million shares. FY2025 revenue was $3.01 billion and GAAP net income was $623 million, while Q1 2026 revenue reached $1.406 billion after the acquisition and net income was $112 million. The company reaffirmed 2026 revenue guidance of $5.575 billion to $5.925 billion and adjusted free cash flow guidance of $655 million to $805 million. The main debate is whether Allison can integrate the acquired business, reduce net leverage toward 2.0x, and protect its transmission moat as heavy-duty vehicles electrify. This page is informational research and is not investment advice.
Current price
$113.78 close on July 9, 2026
Market cap
$9.44 billion using 82.94 million shares; price times shares verified with 0.00% variance
AI score
68 / 100
Rating
High-margin transmission franchise with installed-base economics, offset by acquisition leverage and electrification uncertainty
Trend status
Price is below the 50-day moving average near $118.91 but above the 200-day average near $106.66, so the long-term trend is constructive while near-term momentum is soft
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Allison sells fully automatic transmissions, propulsion systems, service parts, and off-highway drive and motion solutions for commercial, defense, construction, mining, energy, and agricultural applications. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from engineering know-how, product validation, an installed base, distributor coverage, service parts, and customer switching friction. It is strongest in heavy-duty applications where reliability matters and weakest where electric drivetrains can bypass a conventional transmission. | High |
| Management | CEO David Graziosi has deep Allison finance and operating experience. The key management test is whether the Dana acquisition earns its cost, captures the targeted synergies, and still allows disciplined deleveraging and shareholder returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Standalone FY2025 revenue fell 6.7% to $3.010 billion and net income fell 14.8% to $623 million, but adjusted free cash flow remained $661 million. Q1 2026 included $673 million of new Off-Highway revenue and $362 million of consolidated adjusted EBITDA. | High |
| Valuation | At $113.78, the stock is about 17.7x TTM EPS of $6.43 and 14.6x FY2025 free cash flow per share of $7.78. The multiple is reasonable only if the acquired business becomes accretive and leverage falls without a core earnings reset. | Medium |
| Technical trend | Price sits below the 50-day moving average near $118.91 and above the 200-day moving average near $106.66. RSI near 41.67 signals weak momentum rather than a confirmed reversal. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because total debt reached $4.292 billion after the acquisition, Q1 interest expense increased, and electrification, truck cycles, off-highway demand, and integration can all affect cash conversion. | High |
| AI confidence | The data confidence is high for reported figures and current technical snapshots, but lower for long-range normalized earnings and the timing of synergy realization. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Investment certainty is medium because the core franchise is proven, yet the acquisition creates a new balance-sheet and execution phase at the same time that powertrain technology is changing. | Medium |
ALSN AI stock forecast
The ALSN AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model around the $113.78 cutoff price. Using TTM EPS of $6.43, the financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $162.60, a base value near $101.30, and a bearish value near $45.10. These are conditional scenario outputs, not promises or analyst targets.
$150 to $175
More likely if the Off-Highway business reaches the guided revenue range, integration costs fade, synergies improve margins, the core transmission business stabilizes, and net leverage moves toward 2.0x while the market keeps a high-teens earnings multiple.
$90 to $125
More likely if Allison delivers the lower half of 2026 guidance, maintains strong core margins, absorbs acquisition costs gradually, and reduces debt without meaningful dilution or a major loss of transmission demand.
$40 to $60
More likely if heavy-duty and off-highway demand weaken, integration costs persist, debt service limits buybacks, the 200-day trend fails, or customers accelerate a shift toward electric powertrains that bypass Allison’s conventional transmission content.
ALSN AI technical analysis
ALSN AI technical analysis uses public market data available at the July 12, 2026 cutoff. The latest public close was $113.78 on July 9, 2026. StockAnalysis reported a 50-day moving average near $118.91, a 200-day moving average near $106.66, RSI near 41.67, and beta near 0.95. Technical levels describe market structure and do not predict the next price move.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $113.78 | Latest public close used for this page, dated July 9, 2026. |
| Near support | $109 to $112 | The July 8 low near $109.71 and the recent $110 to $112 trading area form the first support band. |
| Trend support | $104 to $107 | The 200-day moving average was near $106.66 at the cutoff. A sustained break below this zone would weaken the long-term trend. |
| Near resistance | $118 to $121 | The 50-day moving average near $118.91 and the July 2 high near $120.75 create the first overhead resistance zone. |
| Higher resistance | $137.62 | The 52-week high reported by Yahoo Finance is the next major reference if price reclaims the moving-average zone. |
| 50-day moving average | About $118.91 | Price below this average indicates short-term trend pressure as of the July 9, 2026 data snapshot. |
| 200-day moving average | About $106.66 | Price above this average keeps the longer-term trend constructive, subject to confirmation from earnings and cash flow. |
| Momentum | RSI near 41.67 | The RSI snapshot shows weak momentum but is not, by itself, a buy or sell signal. |
| Volume | About 736k shares on July 9, 2026 | Daily volume came from the StockAnalysis historical price table. Volume confirmation requires comparison with live average volume. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $76.01 to $137.62; beta near 0.95 | The wide annual range makes position sizing and predefined risk limits important for any trading framework. |
| Invalidation | A sustained close below $104 | A decisive break below the 200-day support zone would invalidate the constructive long-term technical setup. |
ALSN AI trading strategy
The ALSN AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Pair price signals with order trends, truck and construction demand, Off-Highway integration milestones, adjusted free cash flow, net debt, and customer powertrain choices.
Consider a trend-following framework only after price reclaims the 50-day average, holds above it, and confirms the move with stronger volume plus stable core transmission sales or improving guidance.
A close back below the 50-day average reduces confidence. A sustained close below the $104 to $107 200-day zone invalidates the longer-term trend setup.
If price tests the 200-day zone while cash generation, integration milestones, and net leverage remain on plan, compare the setup with normalized EPS and free cash flow rather than a single quarter affected by purchase accounting.
Do not average down automatically if debt, interest expense, core volumes, or electric powertrain adoption show structural deterioration.
Track consolidated and core segment revenue, adjusted EBITDA margin, acquisition-related costs, adjusted free cash flow, total debt, net leverage, repurchases, dividend growth, and the mix of electric, hybrid, and conventional products.
Reduce confidence when the stock rises on multiple expansion while debt stays elevated, core sales fall, or the acquired business misses its guided revenue and synergy path.
Investment research summary
Allison sells propulsion hardware and related service support that helps commercial, defense, and industrial vehicles move reliably. Customers pay for uptime, durability, fuel efficiency, validated engineering, and a support network across more than 150 countries.
The moat is built from decades of engineering, field validation, an installed base, service parts, distributor relationships, and switching friction in mission-critical vehicles. Brand and scale reinforce the moat, while electric drivetrains can narrow it in selected applications.
The thesis fails if the Dana acquisition destroys cash returns, core transmission demand rolls over, electric powertrains replace Allison content faster than new products scale, debt stays high, or off-highway markets remain weak. The market may also be right to discount a company with strong margins but a changing technology base.
David Graziosi has served as CEO since 2018 and previously held Allison CFO and operating roles. Capital allocation has combined debt management, dividends, and buybacks. The current proof point is whether management can integrate a $2.7 billion acquisition while protecting returns on capital.
The long-term industrial trend favors efficient, reliable mobility for freight, construction, mining, agriculture, energy, and defense. This is a durable industrial need, but the technology path can shift from conventional transmissions toward hybrid and electric systems, creating both product opportunity and substitution risk.
At $113.78, the stock trades near 17.7x TTM EPS and about 14.6x FY2025 free cash flow per share. That is not a deep-value price after the share recovery from late 2025. Margin of safety depends on synergy capture, debt reduction, resilient core margins, and a credible response to electrification.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $113.78 close on July 9, 2026 | StockAnalysis historical prices | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 82.94 million shares; 82.83 million in the 2025 10-K | StockAnalysis statistics and Allison 2025 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.44 billion computed from $113.78 x 82.94 million shares | Financial rigor market-cap verification | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $3.010 billion revenue and $623 million GAAP net income | Allison 2025 Form 10-K | July 12, 2026 |
| Five-year financial trend | Revenue grew from $2.402 billion in FY2021 to $3.010 billion in FY2025; FY2025 gross margin was 48.60% | StockAnalysis income statement and Macrotrends revenue series | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 adjusted free cash flow | $661 million, after $175 million of additions to long-lived assets | Allison 2025 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment revenue | $733 million Allison Transmission and $673 million Allison Off-Highway | Allison Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 liquidity and debt | $311 million cash, $4.292 billion total debt, and $3.981 billion net debt | Allison Q1 2026 results filed with the SEC | July 12, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | $5.575 billion to $5.925 billion revenue and $655 million to $805 million adjusted free cash flow | Allison Q1 2026 guidance update | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day average $118.91, 200-day average $106.66, RSI 41.67, beta 0.95 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Dana Off-Highway acquisition | Completed January 1, 2026 for approximately $2.7 billion | Allison acquisition announcement | July 12, 2026 |
| Chief executive background | David S. Graziosi has served as Chair and CEO since 2021 and CEO since June 2018 | Allison leadership page | July 12, 2026 |
This ALSN page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecast ranges are conditional scenarios based on available data and assumptions. Data can be delayed, incomplete, or wrong, and investors should verify filings and consider their own objectives and risk tolerance.
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