Saia, Inc. research snapshot
SAIA AI stock analysis currently reads Saia, Inc. as a high-quality U.S. less-than-truckload carrier that keeps growing through terminal density, pricing discipline, and network expansion. At the August 3, 2026 data cutoff, the latest public close used here was $347.63 on July 31, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $9.25 billion. Saia reported record Q2 2026 results on July 30, 2026: revenue rose 17.1% to $956.5 million and diluted EPS came in at $3.51, beating the $3.39 consensus, with operating ratio improving to 86.9%. Even so, the stock fell about 11% on the report day because revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel fell 2.2%, several analysts trimmed 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates, and the market doubted the durability of the beat. The SAIA AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a single price target. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$347.63
Market cap
$9.25 billion verified market cap
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Quality LTL network compounder at a more reasonable valuation after a record Q2 2026, with improving margins but continued yield and freight-cycle risks
Trend status
Price broke below the 200-day and 50-day moving averages in a post-earnings selloff on July 30, 2026 and now sits near deeply oversold RSI, while fundamentals show record Q2 revenue, tonnage, and an operating ratio of 86.9%
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Saia sells LTL freight and related logistics services across a growing U.S. terminal network. Q2 2026 delivered record revenue, record tonnage, a second-quarter record in shipments, and an operating ratio of 86.9%. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from terminal density, linehaul optimization, service reliability, a record-low claims ratio of 0.3%, customer relationships, and local operating knowledge rather than a brand franchise or network-effect software platform. | Medium-High |
| Management | CEO Fritz Holzgrefe and CFO Matt Batteh delivered record Q2 2026 results with disciplined pricing and mix optimization, cut total debt to $100.1 million from $309.1 million a year earlier, and guided 2026 net capex to about $350 million to $400 million. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 0.8% to $3.234 billion while net income fell about 30% to $255 million. H1 2026 revenue rose 9.8% to $1.763 billion and diluted EPS rose to $5.37 from $4.53, led by the record second quarter. | High |
| Valuation | At $347.63, SAIA screens near 33.6x TTM EPS, 27.3x forward EPS, 3.4x book, about 2.7x sales, and a 2.8% free-cash-flow yield. This is cheaper than mid-2026 levels but still a premium multiple for a cyclical carrier. | High |
| Technical trend | Price sits below both the 200-day moving average near $376 and the 50-day moving average near $439 after the July 30, 2026 earnings break, with RSI near 21.5, a deeply oversold reading that often precedes a short-term bounce. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel is falling, the freight cycle drives earnings, fuel surcharge revenue inflates the top line, and a premium earnings multiple leaves room for estimate cuts or multiple contraction. | High |
| AI confidence | High for reported financials and quote math. Lower for freight-cycle timing, the durability of yield, and any single technical outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium-High certainty because leverage is low and Q2 2026 operating performance was strong, but certainty is reduced by negative ex-fuel yield and an unsettled analyst estimate path. | Medium-High |
SAIA AI stock forecast
The SAIA AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $347.63 cutoff price. The financial-rigor model anchored on forward FY2026 EPS of $11.46 produced a bullish value near $555, a base value near $366, and a bearish value near $172 using EPS growth and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$520 to $570
More likely if industrial demand improves, tonnage and shipment growth continues, revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel stabilizes or turns positive, operating ratio falls toward the mid-80s, EPS compounds near low-20s percent, and the market keeps a premium LTL multiple near 28x.
$330 to $370
More likely if volumes grow at high-single-digit rates, ex-fuel yield stays soft, operating ratio holds near 86% to 88%, EPS reaches the analyst FY2026 estimate near $11.50 and the FY2027 estimate near $14.55, and the multiple stays near 22x to 24x.
$160 to $200
More likely if the freight cycle stalls again, ex-fuel yield keeps falling, fuel surcharge revenue fades, wage and fuel costs outrun pricing, the 2026 low near $315.75 fails, or the earnings multiple contracts toward 15x.
SAIA AI technical analysis
SAIA AI technical analysis uses public quote and technical snapshots available during the August 3, 2026 research pass. Price closed at $347.63 on July 31, 2026, far below the 52-week high near $494.71 and below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages after a high-volume earnings break, with RSI near 21.5.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $347.63 | Latest public close used for this page, dated July 31, 2026 from StockAnalysis and Macrotrends price history. |
| Near support | $341.59 to $342.18 | The July 30 and July 31, 2026 lows around $341.59 to $342.18 form the first support band after the earnings break. |
| Major support | $315.75 | The 2026 low near $315.75 is the major support reference below the current price. |
| Near resistance | $376.22 | The 200-day moving average near $376.22 is the first resistance band and the line price must reclaim to repair the medium-term trend. |
| Higher resistance | $439.11 | The 50-day moving average near $439.11 is the higher resistance reference if a recovery develops. |
| 52-week high | $494.71 | The 52-week high near $494.71, reached in June 2026, is the upper reference if freight sentiment strengthens again. |
| 50-day moving average | About $439 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day moving average near $439.11, well above price, creating a bearish medium-term signal until reclaimed. |
| 200-day moving average | About $376 | Price closed below the 200-day moving average near $376.22 in the July 30, 2026 selloff, weakening the long-term technical setup. |
| Momentum | RSI near 21.5 | StockAnalysis showed RSI(14) near 21.49 during the research window, a deeply oversold reading that often precedes a technical bounce. |
| Volume | About 1.42 million shares on July 30, 2026 | The earnings-day volume of 1.42 million shares was roughly three times the recent 20-day average near 485,000, confirming the breakdown. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $249.32 to $494.71 | A wide annual range and beta near 2.14 imply stops and position size should allow for large freight-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $315.75 | A decisive break below the 2026 low near $315.75 would confirm a deeper cyclical correction. |
SAIA AI trading strategy
The SAIA AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live LTL shipment and tonnage data, revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel, operating ratio, fuel cost trends, terminal openings, capex guidance, moving averages, and predefined invalidation levels.
Use a trend-following framework only if SAIA reclaims the 200-day moving average near $376 and then the 50-day average near $439, with volume confirmation plus improving shipments, tonnage, or ex-fuel yield data.
A close back below the 200-day moving average reduces confidence. A close below the 2026 low near $315.75 invalidates the longer-term trend setup.
If SAIA trades near the $341 to $342 support band or the $315.75 major support while balance-sheet leverage stays low and tonnage growth continues, compare the entry price with normalized earnings rather than peak-cycle estimates.
Do not average down if operating ratio, ex-fuel yield, tonnage, or free cash flow after capex show structural weakness rather than normal cycle noise.
Track shipments and tonnage per workday, revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel, operating ratio, net capex, cash, debt, terminal utilization, and competitor pricing behavior from ODFL, XPO, and other LTL peers, plus analyst estimate revisions.
Reduce confidence when price strength depends mainly on multiple expansion while ex-fuel yield and free cash flow are still under pressure.
Investment research summary
Saia moves smaller freight shipments through a growing U.S. LTL terminal network that reached 218 terminals with national service. Customers pay for reliable pickup and delivery, transit speed, damage control, and coverage without managing a patchwork of local carriers.
The moat is operational density. Trucks are easy to buy, but matching terminal locations, linehaul schedules, dock labor, customer service, and local market knowledge takes years and heavy capital, and a record-low claims ratio of 0.3% signals service reliability.
The thesis fails if industrial freight stays weak, revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel keeps falling, fuel surcharge revenue fades, new terminals dilute density, wages and fuel outrun yield, free cash flow stays thin, or investors stop paying a premium for growth that forward estimates already question.
CEO Fritz Holzgrefe and CFO Matt Batteh led Saia to record Q2 2026 results through pricing and mix optimization, cut total debt to $100.1 million, and normalized capex to about $350 million to $400 million for 2026. The test is whether the improved operating ratio holds as the network matures.
LTL freight benefits from complex supply chains, regional distribution needs, and shippers that value service reliability. Several analysts called transport earnings among the strongest in years with capacity attrition and constructive demand, while the offset is cyclicality because shipments track industrial production and inventory restocking.
At $347.63, SAIA trades near 33.6x TTM EPS and 27.3x forward EPS, below mid-2026 valuation levels but still not a deep-value cyclical. Margin of safety depends on durable volume recovery, ex-fuel yield stabilization, operating-ratio improvement, and lower capex intensity.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $347.63 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis and Macrotrends price history | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $9.25 billion, verified as $347.63 x 26.61 million shares | StockAnalysis share count and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 26.61 million shares | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and EPS | $956.5 million revenue and $3.51 diluted EPS, beating consensus of $3.39 | Saia Q2 2026 earnings release and TheFly | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating ratio | 86.9%, compared with 87.8% in Q2 2025 | Saia Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 operating metrics | LTL shipments per workday +4.4%, LTL tonnage per workday +8.4%, revenue per hundredweight ex-fuel -2.2% | Saia Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 cash and debt | $84.0 million cash and $100.1 million total debt, versus $309.1 million debt a year earlier | Saia Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 revenue and EPS | $1.763 billion revenue and $5.37 diluted EPS, versus $4.53 a year earlier | Saia Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $3.234 billion revenue and $255 million net income | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis annual series | August 3, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $255 million TTM FCF, after capex of about $351 million | StockAnalysis statistics | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 33.6x PE, 27.3x forward PE, 3.4x PB, 2.7x PS, 2.8% FCF yield | financial_rigor.py using public quote and statistics inputs | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Buy with an average price target of $444.62 and a range of $285 to $510 across 21 analysts | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Price $347.63, 50-day MA near $439.11, 200-day MA near $376.22, RSI near 21.49, 52-week range $249.32 to $494.71 | StockAnalysis statistics and history | August 3, 2026 |
| Business model | U.S. less-than-truckload carrier with 218 terminals, national service, and related logistics services | Saia Q2 2026 earnings release and company profile | August 3, 2026 |
This SAIA AI stock analysis is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of August 3, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, freight demand, ex-fuel yield, fuel costs, interest rates, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or company-specific risks change.
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