Saia, Inc. research snapshot
SAIA AI stock analysis currently reads Saia, Inc. as a high-quality U.S. less-than-truckload carrier that has grown through terminal density, pricing discipline, and network expansion, while remaining more cyclical and lower-margin than industry leader Old Dominion. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, the latest public close used here was $421.29 on July 9, 2026, with verified market capitalization near $11.21 billion. FY2025 revenue was roughly flat at $3.234 billion, but net income fell to about $255 million as operating margins compressed. Q1 2026 revenue rose 2.4% to $806.2 million while diluted EPS was flat at $1.86. The SAIA AI stock forecast therefore uses scenarios rather than a single price target. This page is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$421.29
Market cap
$11.21 billion verified market cap
AI score
62 / 100
Rating
Quality LTL network compounder with premium valuation and near-term margin pressure
Trend status
Long-term trend stays constructive above the 200-day average, while price sits below the 50-day average after a pullback from the 52-week high zone
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Saia sells LTL freight and related logistics services across a growing U.S. terminal network, with revenue driven by shipments, weight, length of haul, and yield. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from terminal density, linehaul optimization, service reliability, customer relationships, and local operating knowledge rather than a brand franchise or network-effect software platform. | Medium-High |
| Management | CEO Fritz Holzgrefe, a former CFO, has emphasized terminal expansion, pricing integrity, and capital discipline, but the current test is converting network growth into better operating ratio after 2025 margin compression. | High |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue rose 0.8% to $3.234 billion while net income fell about 30% to $255 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 2.4% and EPS was flat at $1.86 as operating ratio worsened to 91.7%. | High |
| Valuation | At $421.29, SAIA screens near 44.2x TTM EPS, 4.3x book, about 3.4x sales, and a low free-cash-flow yield after years of heavy network investment. | High |
| Technical trend | Price is above the rising 200-day average near the mid-$360s and below the 50-day average near the high $440s, with RSI recently in the mid-30s after a pullback from the $495 area. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because a premium PE leaves limited room for weaker tonnage, lower contractual renewals, fuel spikes, terminal underutilization, or multiple contraction. | High |
| AI confidence | High for historical financials and quote math. Lower for freight-cycle timing, the payoff from recent terminal openings, and any single technical outcome. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty because the network strategy is clear, but the stock already prices a recovery in volumes and margins rather than a deep margin of safety. | Medium |
SAIA AI stock forecast
The SAIA AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario framework around the $421.29 cutoff price. The financial-rigor model produced a bullish value near $536, a base value near $374, and a bearish value near $191 using TTM EPS, growth, and terminal PE assumptions. These are scenario outputs, not promises.
$520 to $550
More likely if industrial demand improves, shipments and tons accelerate, contractual renewals stay firm, operating ratio recovers toward the high 80s, EPS compounds near low double digits, and the market keeps assigning a premium LTL multiple.
$350 to $390
More likely if revenue grows mid-single to high-single digits, new terminals mature gradually, margins stabilize without a full peak-cycle recovery, and investors pay a mid-30s earnings multiple.
$180 to $210
More likely if freight volumes stall, yield fails to cover wage and fuel inflation, expansion costs keep free cash flow weak, the 200-day moving average fails, or valuation contracts toward a lower transportation-cycle multiple.
SAIA AI technical analysis
SAIA AI technical analysis uses public quote and technical snapshots available during the July 12, 2026 research pass. Price closed at $421.29 on July 9, 2026, well below the 52-week high near $494.71, above the 200-day average, and below the 50-day average, with RSI recently near oversold-to-neutral territory.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $421.29 | Latest public close used for this page, dated July 9, 2026 from company historical price lookup and multi-source quotes. |
| Near support | $400 to $415 | The July 8, 2026 low near $401.53 and recent pullback lows form the first support band. |
| Major support | $360 to $370 | TipRanks and Chartmill listed the 200-day simple moving average near the mid-$360s, making it a major trend reference. |
| Near resistance | $440 to $450 | The 50-day moving-average zone near the high $440s is the first resistance band after the pullback. |
| Higher resistance | $494.71 | The 52-week high near $494.71 is the upper resistance reference if freight sentiment strengthens. |
| 50-day moving average | About $448 | TipRanks listed the 50-day moving average near $448.21, with Chartmill near $449.54, creating a short-term sell signal while price stays below it. |
| 200-day moving average | About $366 | Price above the 200-day simple moving average keeps the long-term trend constructive. |
| Momentum | RSI near 34 | Investing.com showed RSI(14) near 34.16 during the research window, which is weak but not yet a confirmed reversal signal by itself. |
| Volume | About 261k shares on July 9, 2026 | Company historical lookup showed July 9 volume of 261,334 shares versus multi-source average volume near 350k to 420k. |
| Volatility | 52-week range $249.32 to $494.71 | Wide annual range and beta near 2 imply stops and position size should allow for large freight-stock swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $360 | A decisive break below the 200-day moving-average zone would weaken the long-term technical setup. |
SAIA AI trading strategy
The SAIA AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. Traders should pair the setup with live LTL shipment data, revenue per hundredweight, operating ratio, fuel cost trends, terminal openings, capex guidance, moving averages, and predefined invalidation levels.
Use a trend-following framework only if SAIA reclaims the 50-day moving average, holds above the 200-day average, and confirms strength with volume plus improving shipments or yield data.
A close back below the 50-day average reduces confidence. A close below the 200-day average invalidates the longer-term trend setup.
If SAIA pulls back toward the 200-day average while balance-sheet leverage stays low and contractual renewals remain solid, compare the entry price with normalized EPS rather than peak-cycle earnings.
Do not average down if operating ratio, free cash flow after capex, or tonnage trends show structural weakness rather than normal cycle noise.
Track shipments per workday, tonnage, revenue per hundredweight excluding fuel, operating ratio, net capex, cash, debt, terminal utilization, and competitor pricing behavior from ODFL, XPO, and other LTL peers.
Reduce confidence when price strength depends mainly on multiple expansion while earnings and free cash flow are still under pressure.
Investment research summary
Saia moves smaller freight shipments through a growing U.S. LTL terminal network. Customers pay for reliable pickup and delivery, transit speed, damage control, and coverage without managing a patchwork of local carriers.
The moat is operational density. Trucks are easy to buy, but matching terminal locations, linehaul schedules, dock labor, customer service, and local market knowledge takes years and heavy capital.
The thesis fails if industrial freight stays weak, new terminals dilute density, pricing discipline slips, fuel and wages outrun yield, free cash flow stays thin, or investors stop paying a premium for growth that is not yet visible in earnings.
CEO Fritz Holzgrefe has led network expansion and capital discipline after rising from CFO to COO to CEO. The current proof point is whether recent terminal investment improves density and operating ratio without overextending the balance sheet.
LTL freight benefits from complex supply chains, regional distribution needs, and shippers that value service reliability. The offset is cyclicality because shipments track industrial production, inventory restocking, and broader U.S. economic activity.
At $421.29, SAIA is priced as a quality growth carrier recovering from a 2025 earnings drop, not as a deep-value cyclical. Margin of safety depends on volume recovery, operating-ratio improvement, lower capex intensity, and a durable earnings multiple.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current price | $421.29 close on July 9, 2026 | Saia historical price lookup and multi-source quotes | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $11.21 billion, verified as $421.29 x 26.60 million shares | Yahoo Finance shares outstanding and financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 26.60 million shares | Yahoo Finance key statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $3.234 billion | Macrotrends and StockAnalysis annual series | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net income | $255 million, or $9.52 diluted EPS | Company full-year results coverage and StockAnalysis | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 operating margin | 10.9%, down about 4.1 percentage points year over year | StockTitan financial overview | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and EPS | $806.2 million revenue and $1.86 diluted EPS | Saia Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 cash and debt | $39.2 million cash and $112.8 million total debt | Saia Q1 2026 earnings release | July 12, 2026 |
| TTM free cash flow | About $194.7 million TTM FCF, after heavy multi-year capex | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 44.2x PE, 4.3x PB, 1.7% FCF yield, 0% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py using public quote and statistics inputs | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | Price $421.29, 50-day MA near $448, 200-day MA near $366, 52-week range $249.32 to $494.71 | TipRanks, Chartmill, Macrotrends, and company price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Business model | U.S. less-than-truckload carrier with national terminal expansion and related logistics services | Saia company profile and investor materials | July 12, 2026 |
This SAIA AI stock analysis is an informational tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future returns. Forecast scenarios are based on available public data as of July 12, 2026 and may be wrong if financial results, freight demand, interest rates, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or company-specific risks change.
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