Alkermes plc research snapshot
ALKS AI stock analysis as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff reads Alkermes plc as a profitable neuroscience company whose story now turns on sleep medicine. The stock closed at $48.99 on July 31, 2026, down from the July high near $55.67 after the Q2 2026 report, with a market capitalization near $8.22 billion re-verified as $48.99 times 167.76 million shares outstanding. Q2 2026 revenue was $496.0 million, about 8% above the consensus near $457 million and up 27% year over year, but GAAP net income was only $0.5 million because acquisition accounting, intangible amortization, and a $26.4 million contingent consideration charge reduced earnings. The company kept its full-year revenue guidance at $1.73 billion to $1.84 billion and Adjusted EBITDA at $370 million to $410 million, while widening the expected GAAP net loss to $95 million to $115 million. Blair Jackson became CEO on August 1, 2026, and the alixorexton long-term extension study continued to show durable wakefulness gains in narcolepsy. The central question is whether LUMRYZ and the orexin 2 receptor pipeline can replace declining royalties and justify a trailing price-to-earnings ratio above 100. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$48.99 close on July 31, 2026
Market cap
$8.22 billion, matching $48.99 x 167.76 million shares outstanding at a 0.02% variance
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
Conditional neuroscience compounder trading at a rich valuation, with growth depending on LUMRYZ execution, debt reduction, and orexin pipeline milestones
Trend status
Medium-term bullish above the 200-day average, but short-term momentum has cooled after the Q2 2026 report and price sits just above the 50-day average
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Alkermes develops, manufactures, and commercializes neuroscience medicines. The proprietary portfolio now includes VIVITROL, ARISTADA, LYBALVI, and LUMRYZ, while licensed products add manufacturing and royalty revenue. | High |
| Moat | The strongest defenses are long-acting formulation technology, regulatory and manufacturing know-how, patents, physician relationships, and design of medicines for difficult-to-treat conditions. Network effects are limited and generic competition remains a real threat. | Medium-high |
| Management | Blair Jackson assumed the CEO role on August 1, 2026, with Richard Pops continuing as Chairman. The management test is Avadel integration, debt repayment, clinical capital allocation, and a smooth leadership transition. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $1.476 billion and GAAP net income was $241.7 million. Q2 2026 revenue rose 27% to $496.0 million, but GAAP net income was only $0.5 million and the first half produced a $66.0 million GAAP loss after acquisition accounting. | High |
| Valuation | At $48.99, the stock traded near 126x trailing GAAP EPS, about 31x forward earnings, 4.54x book value, and 37x trailing free cash flow. The multiple prices in continued earnings recovery and pipeline progress after the Avadel transaction. | High data confidence |
| Technical trend | The July 31 close of $48.99 was above the 200-day average near $35.50 and just above the 50-day average near $47.73, with RSI near 44 after a pullback from the July high near $55.67. The trend is medium-term positive but short-term momentum has cooled. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because Alkermes carries about $1.5 billion of new acquisition debt, faces a future GAAP loss year, has a new CEO, and depends on clinical milestones, product concentration, and VIVITROL generic risk. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported historical figures, Q2 2026 results, disclosed transaction terms, and analyst targets. Forecast confidence is medium because 2026 GAAP earnings are distorted by acquisition accounting and the pipeline remains event-driven. | High data, medium forecast |
| Investment certainty | ALKS is a conditional commercial and pipeline compounder rather than a high-certainty defensive stock. The thesis needs LUMRYZ growth, debt reduction, stable psychiatry products, and credible alixorexton development. | Medium |
ALKS AI stock forecast
The ALKS AI stock forecast uses a transparent three-year scenario model starting from FY2025 diluted GAAP EPS of $1.43, the company reported figure, and the July 31, 2026 close of $48.99. The financial_rigor.py model used 15%, 5%, and negative 10% annual EPS growth with terminal multiples of 30x, 25x, and 15x, producing approximately $65, $41, and $16. The starting EPS is reported, but the path is uncertain because 2026 GAAP earnings are negative and the market is pricing the pipeline and LUMRYZ recovery rather than this year GAAP profit.
$55 to $75
More likely if 2026 revenue lands near the upper end of the $1.73 billion to $1.84 billion guidance, LUMRYZ gains patients without excessive selling costs, proprietary psychiatry products remain resilient, operating cash flow pays down debt, and alixorexton continues to produce strong clinical evidence.
$38 to $50
More likely if LUMRYZ adds meaningful revenue, VIVITROL and LYBALVI grow moderately, royalty revenue continues to decline, acquisition costs fade, debt is reduced over time, and the market values normalized earnings near the high 20s to low 30s PE range.
$12 to $25
More likely if LUMRYZ integration disappoints, VIVITROL generic competition arrives faster or erodes pricing, clinical trials fail, LYBALVI litigation or competition weakens sales, debt repayment limits R&D, or investors apply a lower multiple to reduced earnings.
ALKS AI technical analysis
ALKS AI technical analysis uses the July 31, 2026 closing price of $48.99 and the StockAnalysis.com statistics snapshot as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. The 50-day simple moving average was near $47.73, the 200-day near $35.50, and 14-day RSI near 44.22 after the Q2 2026 pullback. The medium-term trend is up, but the July 28 report knocked the stock off the highs, so levels should be treated as zones rather than exact predictions.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $48.99 | StockAnalysis.com closing snapshot for July 31, 2026, down 2.08% on the day after the Q2 2026 reaction. |
| Immediate support | $47.73 to $48.50 | The 50-day simple moving average was near $47.73 and the July 31 intraday low was near $48.52, forming the first support band. |
| Secondary support | $43 to $45 | Below the 50-day average, the next zone sits near the levels printed in early June 2026 before the orexin headlines, about 10% below the July 31 close. |
| 200-day support | $35.50 | StockAnalysis.com reported the 200-day simple moving average near $35.50. A sustained break below it would end the medium-term uptrend. |
| Near resistance | $50 to $52 | The round $50 level and the pre-earnings consolidation near $52 mark the first overhead supply from the late July trading range. |
| Major resistance | $55.67 | StockAnalysis.com listed the 52-week high near $55.67, set before the Q2 2026 report. A high-volume close above it would mark a new breakout. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $47.73; 200-day about $35.50 | StockAnalysis.com values as of the August 3, 2026 data cutoff. Other feeds may update at different times. |
| Momentum | RSI 44.22; MACD rolling over from highs | RSI near 44 shows momentum cooled from the overbought July zone after the earnings reaction, so a short-term reset rather than a confirmed downtrend. |
| Volume | About 1.80 million average shares over 20 days | StockAnalysis.com reported 20-day average volume near 1,799,642 shares, with the earnings session volume elevated above the average. |
| Volatility | Beta 0.29; 52-week range $25.17 to $55.67 | The low beta masks event-driven risk. The wide annual range reflects biotech and acquisition uncertainty, so position sizing should account for single-event swings. |
| Invalidation | Close below $47.73, then $43 | A decisive break below the 50-day average would weaken the near-term setup. A break below $43 would signal a deeper correction, and below the 200-day average near $35.50 a broader trend change. |
ALKS AI trading strategy
The ALKS AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action with LUMRYZ demand, proprietary product sales, debt repayment, operating cash flow, clinical milestones, patent events, and the new CEO transition.
Watch for ALKS to reclaim the $50 to $52 area on stronger volume, then challenge the $55.67 high while revenue guidance, LUMRYZ execution, and cash flow remain intact.
A close below $47.73 reduces trend confidence. A close below the 200-day average near $35.50 invalidates the medium-term technical trend and should trigger a review of earnings, debt, and pipeline assumptions.
If price tests the $47.73 to $48.50 band without a new fundamental problem, compare the drawdown with LUMRYZ prescription trends, proprietary net sales, debt reduction, and the base and bearish scenarios.
Do not treat a lower price as cheap if the market is repricing VIVITROL generic risk, clinical failure, Avadel integration problems, or a lasting debt burden.
Track total revenue, proprietary net sales, LUMRYZ revenue and patient growth, VIVITROL and LYBALVI trends, manufacturing and royalty revenue, gross to net adjustments, operating cash flow, term-loan balance, R&D spending, and alixorexton trial milestones.
The next scheduled review points are the alixorexton ADHD data and the phase 2 idiopathic hypersomnia readout expected around year-end. A revenue beat without improving cash generation or debt reduction would not by itself confirm the investment case.
Investment research summary
Customers and patients pay Alkermes for medicines that address difficult neurological and psychiatric conditions, often with long-acting or differentiated delivery. The company earns proprietary product sales from VIVITROL, ARISTADA, LYBALVI, and now LUMRYZ, plus royalties and manufacturing revenue from licensed products such as VUMERITY and long-acting INVEGA products.
The moat comes from formulation science, long-acting delivery systems, regulatory approvals, patents, manufacturing quality, and physician familiarity in specialist disease areas. It is not a network-effect moat. VIVITROL faces expected generic entry from 2027, while ARISTADA and LYBALVI have later stated patent expirations, so the moat must be renewed through innovation and execution.
The thesis fails if Avadel integration consumes more cash than expected, LUMRYZ cannot scale, new debt reduces flexibility, VIVITROL generic competition cuts pricing, royalty revenue falls faster, LYBALVI litigation or competition damages sales, or alixorexton fails in later studies. The widened 2026 GAAP net loss guidance to $95 million to $115 million shows that a growing revenue story can still produce a reported loss year.
Blair Jackson took over as CEO on August 1, 2026, and Richard Pops continues as Chairman. The Avadel deal added LUMRYZ and a sleep commercial organization, funded with cash and about $1.5 billion of term loans. Capital allocation is now judged by integration, debt repayment, clinical investment, and shareholder returns under a new leadership team.
Neuroscience remains a large unmet-need market across addiction, schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, narcolepsy, and idiopathic hypersomnia. Alkermes has a credible position in sleep medicine through LUMRYZ and alixorexton, but it competes with established oxybate products, generic medicines, new antipsychotics, and better-funded pharmaceutical companies.
At $48.99, the stock traded near 126x trailing GAAP EPS and about 31x forward earnings, with a three-year base scenario near $41 in the audited model. The price sits above that base case, which implies limited margin of safety unless LUMRYZ growth, debt reduction, or pipeline value exceeds current expectations.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALKS price | $48.99 closing price on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com quote page | August 3, 2026 |
| Market capitalization and shares | $8.22 billion reported; $8.22 billion from $48.99 x 167.76 million shares, 0.02% variance | StockAnalysis.com and financial_rigor.py | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and net income | $496.0 million revenue, $411.7 million proprietary net sales, and $0.5 million GAAP net income | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 product revenue mix | VIVITROL $124.5M, ARISTADA $96.7M, LYBALVI $94.0M, LUMRYZ $96.6M, manufacturing and royalty $84.3M | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 Adjusted EBITDA | $139.2 million Adjusted EBITDA on $49.0 million EBITDA and $0.5 million GAAP net income | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| H1 2026 financial results | $888.9 million revenue, $749.8 million proprietary net sales, and $66.0 million GAAP net loss | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | $1.476 billion revenue and $241.7 million GAAP net income | Alkermes FY2025 10-K and SEC EDGAR XBRL | August 3, 2026 |
| FY2025 cash flow | $520.8 million operating cash flow and about $480 million free cash flow | Alkermes FY2025 10-K and StockAnalysis.com | August 3, 2026 |
| 2026 guidance | Revenue $1.73B to $1.84B, Adjusted EBITDA $370M to $410M, GAAP net loss widened to $95M to $115M | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | $691.6 million cash, cash equivalents and investments; $1,476.6 million long-term debt plus $26.5 million current portion at June 30, 2026 | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release and Form 10-Q | August 3, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | PE 126.19, Forward PE 31.15, PS 4.93, PB 4.54, P/FCF 37.08, EV/EBITDA 51.06 | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Technical moving averages and momentum | 50-day SMA about $47.73, 200-day SMA about $35.50, RSI 44.22, 52-week range $25.17 to $55.67 | StockAnalysis.com statistics page | August 3, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus and targets | Consensus Buy with 18 analysts, average target near $56, range about $38 to $72 | StockAnalysis.com forecast page | August 3, 2026 |
| Alixorexton LTE data | Sustained improvement in wakefulness and patient-reported cognition and fatigue across narcolepsy type 1 and type 2 at week 24 of the long-term extension interim analysis | Alkermes investor news release | July 13, 2026 |
| CEO transition | Blair Jackson assumed CEO on August 1, 2026; Richard Pops continues as Chairman | Alkermes Q2 2026 earnings release | August 3, 2026 |
This ALKS AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 3, 2026 and can be wrong if financial results, clinical data, regulation, patent disputes, competition, interest rates, or market sentiment change.
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