Align Technology, Inc. research snapshot
ALGN AI stock analysis currently reads Align Technology as a profitable medical device and digital dentistry company whose record second quarter 2026 results showed stronger clear aligner volume and margin progress, offset by systems and services softness and new regulatory overhang. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ALGN traded near $169.16 with a verified market capitalization near $12.11 billion. Q2 2026 revenue was $1.056 billion, up 4.3%, with record clear aligner volumes of 692,000 cases and a 22.9% non-GAAP operating margin. The key debate is whether continued clear aligner adoption, international growth, margin gains, and a higher 2026 buyback can offset dental consumer cyclicality, lower-priced scanner mix, competition, the European Commission antitrust investigation, and the U.K. VAT ruling reversal. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain stock price prediction, and is for informational use only.
Current price
$169.16
Market cap
$12.11 billion
AI score
64 / 100
Rating
Profitable clear aligner growth leader with record Q2 volume, balanced by systems softness and regulatory overhang
Trend status
Short-term corrective below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while price still holds above the 200-day moving average near $166.71 with neutral momentum
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Align sells Invisalign clear aligners, iTero scanners, exocad software, and related services into orthodontic and restorative dentistry workflows where doctors pay for outcomes, digital efficiency, and patient conversion. | High |
| Moat | The moat comes from brand trust, doctor training, case data, manufacturing scale, software workflow integration, and scanner installed base, but it is exposed to lower-cost aligner competitors, in-office printing, and bundled dental platforms. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Joe Hogan and CFO John Morici delivered a record Q2 with higher clear aligner volume and non-GAAP margin. Elliott engagement is adding three independent directors and a strategic and operating model review, so the scorecard is now about proving durable growth and margin expansion while the board resets. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was $4.035 billion, up 0.9%, with net income down 2.6% to $410.4 million. Q2 2026 revenue rose 4.3% to $1.056 billion with record 692,000 clear aligner cases, while systems and services revenue fell 10.8% on lower-priced scanner mix. | High |
| Valuation | At $169.16, ALGN traded near 29.4x trailing EPS, 14.3x forward EPS, 2.93x sales, 2.86x book value, and 18.6x free cash flow based on StockAnalysis metrics and financial_rigor.py verification. | Medium-high |
| Technical trend | Daily technicals were mixed as of July 31, 2026, with ALGN below the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages near $176.40 and $173.75 but above the 200-day average near $166.71, with RSI near 44.7 after the post-earnings pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is medium-high because clear aligners are discretionary medical devices tied to consumer spending, dental office traffic, a European Commission antitrust investigation, a U.K. VAT ruling reversal, competition, foreign exchange, tariffs, and product execution. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for reported data and source-backed calculations, medium for forecast and trading setups. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The page frames watch points and scenario ranges, not a buy or sell instruction. | Medium |
ALGN AI stock forecast
The ALGN AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $169.16 quote, trailing GAAP EPS of $5.75, and forward non-GAAP EPS consensus near $11.28 for fiscal 2026. Align reaffirmed 2026 revenue growth guidance of 3% to 4%, a non-GAAP operating margin near 23%, and raised its 2026 share repurchase commitment to $400 million to $500 million. financial_rigor.py produced a three-year bullish value near $245, a base value near $159, and a bearish value near $75 before considering future buybacks, dilution, or multiple changes outside the stated assumptions.
$235 to $255
More likely if clear aligner volume holds mid-to-high single digits, international regions keep growing, North America stabilizes, systems and services mix headwind eases, non-GAAP operating margin approaches 24% or better, and investors assign a low-to-mid 20s earnings multiple.
$150 to $170
More likely if revenue grows in the low single digits, EPS compounds through margin gains and buybacks, clear aligner volume stays resilient, but systems mix drag, competition, and regulatory costs keep the stock near a high-teens to low-20s earnings multiple.
$70 to $80
More likely if dental consumer demand weakens, clear aligner volume slows, scanner mix pressure worsens, the EU antitrust investigation or U.K. VAT appeal raises costs, competition compresses ASP, or the market reprices ALGN closer to a low-teens earnings multiple.
ALGN AI technical analysis
ALGN AI technical analysis is mixed after the post-earnings pullback as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. At the July 31, 2026 close of $169.16, ALGN sits below the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages but above the 200-day average, with RSI near 44.7 and a 52-week range of $122.00 to $200.44. The stock pulled back from roughly $187 to $165 after Q2 results, and the 200-day average near $166.71 is the key level to watch.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $169.16 | July 31, 2026 closing price used for market cap and valuation checks at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $164.74 to $166.71 | The July 31 low was $164.74 and the 200-day simple moving average was near $166.71, making this the immediate demand zone. |
| Deeper support | $160 to $161.71 | Pivot S2 near $161.54 and early June lows near $160.33 to $161.71 mark the next support band if the 200-day average gives way. |
| Near resistance | $172.36 to $173.75 | Classic pivot R1 was near $172.36 and the 50-day simple moving average was $173.75, forming the first supply zone. |
| Intermediate resistance | $176.40 to $179.37 | The 20-day simple moving average near $176.40 and pivot R2 to R3 near $175.56 to $179.37 mark the recovery zone that would confirm a trend turn. |
| Upper resistance | $187 to $200.44 | July swing highs near $187 to $190.97 and the 52-week high of $200.44 are the next levels if the recovery extends. |
| Moving averages | MA20 $176.40, MA50 $173.75, MA200 $166.71 | Computed from daily closes through July 31, 2026; StockAnalysis listed the 50-day at $173.75 and 200-day at $166.71. Price below MA20 and MA50 but above MA200 keeps the long-term trend intact. |
| Momentum | RSI(14) 44.68 | StockAnalysis listed RSI near 44.7, a neutral reading after the pullback, so direction depends more on earnings, guidance, and volume than on RSI alone. |
| Volume | Watch volume versus the 20-day average | Average 20-day volume was near 956,838 shares, with heavier 1.5 million to 1.7 million share sessions on July 29 to July 31 around the earnings reaction. |
| Volatility | ATR(14) near $6.8 to $7.9; beta 1.67 | Computed ATR(14) was near $6.8 on a simple basis and near $7.9 with Wilder smoothing, and beta of 1.67 supports wider stops than a tight one-day pivot would imply. |
| Invalidation | Close below $166.71, then $160 | A decisive close below the 200-day simple moving average weakens the long-term trend framework; a close below $160 would lower confidence in recovery and mean-reversion setups. |
ALGN AI trading strategy
The ALGN AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a medical device stock tied to dental demand, international adoption, margin recovery, and regulatory headlines. It is not personal advice and should be paired with fresh chart data, filings, position sizing, and a defined invalidation level.
Watch for ALGN to hold above the 200-day moving average near $166.71, reclaim the 50-day near $173.75 and the 20-day near $176.40 on expanding volume, and confirm with Q3 2026 revenue, clear aligner volume, ASP, and non-GAAP margin commentary near 24%.
A close back below the 50-day average lowers near-term trend confidence. A close below the 200-day average should invalidate the recovery setup, and a close below $160 would signal deeper downside risk.
If ALGN pulls back toward the $164 to $167 moving average band without a negative guidance reset, compare the pullback with dental demand commentary, scanner mix, EU antitrust and U.K. VAT news, and buyback activity before assuming support is durable.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because ALGN can gap on earnings, consumer demand, litigation, regulatory rulings, or competitive pricing news.
Track clear aligner case volume, teen and growing patient cases, GP dentist adoption, DSO growth, iTero Lumina unit mix and lease and rental economics, exocad growth, non-GAAP operating margin, cash generation, the $400 million to $500 million buyback, and any change to 2026 guidance.
Reduce confidence if revenue growth depends mainly on buybacks or foreign exchange while patient traffic, ASP, gross margin, or scanner placement quality weaken, or if the EU antitrust or U.K. VAT situation escalates.
Investment research summary
Align sells digital orthodontic and restorative dentistry outcomes. Doctors and dental organizations pay because Invisalign, iTero, exocad, and related software can improve treatment planning, patient conversion, office workflow, and brand confidence.
The moat is built on Invisalign brand awareness, doctor training, clinical case history, proprietary treatment planning software, manufacturing scale, scanner workflows, and a large installed ecosystem. It narrows if lower-cost aligners, in-office printing, or bundled dental platforms reduce switching costs.
The thesis fails if dental demand weakens, North America retail stays soft, competitors compress ASP, scanner mix shift outruns volume gains, regulatory costs from the EU investigation or U.K. VAT ruling rise, or management uses buybacks to hide weak organic growth.
Joe Hogan, John Morici, and the leadership team delivered a record Q2 2026 with clear aligner volume growth and margin progress. With Elliott adding three directors and a strategic and operating model review underway, the scorecard is whether the company converts growth initiatives into durable volume, margin, and cash rather than a short earnings rebound.
Digital dentistry is a long-duration trend because orthodontics and restorative workflows are moving toward scanning, software planning, and integrated doctor-patient platforms. The trend is real, but adoption is still tied to consumer budgets, practice economics, and regulatory or clinical trust.
At roughly 29.4x trailing EPS and 14.3x forward EPS, ALGN embeds a meaningful recovery in non-GAAP earnings. Margin of safety improves if price holds the 200-day support band while volume growth, scanner adoption, cash conversion, and the new buyback remain intact.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALGN price and market capitalization | $169.16 price, $12.11 billion verified market cap | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 71.62 million shares outstanding, down 2.75% year over year | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 revenue and clear aligner volume | $1.056 billion revenue, up 4.3%; record 692,000 clear aligner cases, up 7.4%; clear aligner revenue up 8.2% | Align Q2 2026 financial results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q2 2026 non-GAAP EPS and operating margin | Non-GAAP EPS $2.64, up 6% year over year; non-GAAP operating margin 22.9%, up 1.6 points | Align Q2 2026 earnings call | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue and net income | Revenue $4.035 billion, up 0.9%; net income $410.35 million, down 2.6% | Align FY2025 financial results / StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash and net cash | $1.1026 billion cash at June 30, 2026; net cash $1.02 billion | Align Q2 2026 financial results / StockAnalysis | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation ratios | 29.39x trailing PE, 14.32x forward PE, 2.93x sales, 2.86x book value, 18.55x free cash flow, 1.50x PEG | StockAnalysis statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Consensus Buy from 16 analysts, average price target $209.29, range $170 to $240 | StockAnalysis analyst forecast | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 share repurchase commitment | $400 million to $500 million planned for 2026 | Align Q2 2026 earnings call / strategic initiatives release | August 2, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | RSI(14) 44.68; MA50 $173.75, MA200 $166.71; 52-week range $122.00 to $200.44 | StockAnalysis statistics and price history | August 2, 2026 |
This ALGN AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of future returns. Forecast ranges are scenario outputs based on available public data and can be wrong if fundamentals, valuation multiples, technical conditions, or market sentiment change.
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