Allegro MicroSystems, Inc. research snapshot
ALGM AI stock analysis currently reads Allegro MicroSystems as a specialized sensing and power semiconductor company with meaningful exposure to vehicle electrification, ADAS, data centers, robotics, and industrial automation. The latest verified close was $54.87 on July 10, 2026, with a market capitalization near $10.22 billion using about 186.31 million shares. Fiscal 2026 sales rose 22.8% to $890.1 million and free cash flow reached $124.9 million, but GAAP net income remained negative at $14.9 million. The central question is whether xEV and ADAS content, data center power demand, and margin recovery can justify a valuation above 11x sales while the company is still rebuilding GAAP earnings. This page uses scenario ranges, not a certain price prediction, and is for informational use only, not investment advice.
Current price
$54.87 close on July 10, 2026
Market cap
$10.22 billion using 186.31 million shares outstanding, with market-cap math verified within 0.03%
AI score
61 / 100
Rating
High-growth semiconductor recovery candidate with strong sensor and power IC positions, but high valuation and execution risk
Trend status
Short-term neutral after a sharp pullback, with price just above the 200-day average and below the 50-day average on one technical feed
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Allegro sells magnetic sensor ICs and application-specific power ICs that help customers sense position, speed, and current, control motors, and manage power in automotive and industrial systems. | High |
| Moat | The strongest defenses are application know-how, safety qualification, proprietary process and packaging technology, a broad portfolio, and design-in friction. Network effects are limited, and customers can still pressure price and qualify alternatives. | Medium-high |
| Management | CEO Mike Doogue is a long-time Allegro engineer and technology leader. The current management test is whether sales reorganization, R&D allocation, product launches, margin recovery, and debt reduction convert growth into durable per-share earnings. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | Revenue recovered from $725.0 million in FY2025 to $890.1 million in FY2026. GAAP gross margin improved to 46.3%, operating income turned positive at $18.5 million, and FCF rose to $124.9 million, but net income attributable to Allegro remained a $14.9 million loss. | High |
| Valuation | At $54.87, trailing PE is not meaningful because GAAP EPS is negative. StockAnalysis reported forward PE of 53.48x, price to sales of 11.49x, price to FCF of 81.85x, and EV to sales of 11.64x, so the price depends on a large earnings recovery. | High data confidence |
| Technical trend | The July 10 close sat just above the $54.46 200-day simple moving average and below the $56.83 50-day average on the Investing.com feed. The sharp fall from the $71.77 52-week high leaves the daily trend neutral until price reclaims the upper $50s with volume. | Medium |
| Risk level | Risk is high relative to a mature semiconductor compounder because auto and industrial demand are cyclical, GAAP earnings are negative, the stock trades at a premium recovery multiple, and Allegro depends on third-party wafer and assembly partners plus global supply chains. | High |
| AI confidence | Data confidence is high for reported figures and market-cap arithmetic. Forecast confidence is medium-low because the model uses a forward EPS estimate implied by market data rather than a company-reported GAAP earnings base. | High data, medium-low forecast |
| Investment certainty | ALGM is a conditional recovery and secular-growth case, not a high-certainty compounder at the current valuation. The thesis needs sustained sales growth, gross-margin expansion, and GAAP earnings conversion. | Low to medium |
ALGM AI stock forecast
The ALGM AI stock forecast uses a three-year scenario model rather than a single target. The model starts with a $1.026 forward EPS anchor implied by the $54.87 price and StockAnalysis forward PE of 53.48x. This is an inferred market expectation, not reported GAAP EPS. Using annual EPS growth of 25%, 15%, and negative 10% with terminal multiples of 45x, 35x, and 18x, financial_rigor.py produced approximately $90.2, $54.6, and $13.5. Rounded ranges below show the uncertainty around those outputs.
$80 to $105
More likely if Q1 FY2027 sales land near or above the $245 million to $255 million company outlook, xEV and ADAS continue to gain content, data center sales keep expanding from 10% of FY2026 revenue, non-GAAP gross margin moves toward the company target above 55%, and GAAP EPS catches up with the market recovery narrative.
$48 to $62
More likely if sales grow around the mid-teens over time, product mix and factory efficiency lift margins gradually, data center and robotics offset parts of the auto cycle, and the market keeps a high but lower 35x recovery multiple on forward earnings.
$10 to $20
More likely if auto inventory correction returns, China or industrial demand weakens, gold and manufacturing costs pressure gross margin, design wins convert slowly, GAAP losses persist, or investors rerate ALGM toward an 18x multiple on reduced forward earnings.
ALGM AI technical analysis
ALGM AI technical analysis uses the July 10, 2026 close and technical readings available around the July 12 cutoff. The stock closed at $54.87 after falling from the $71.77 52-week high. Investing.com showed a neutral daily summary, RSI(14) of 47.562, MACD of negative 0.68, a 50-day simple moving average near $56.83, and a 200-day simple moving average near $54.46. StockAnalysis reports different moving-average values from another calculation feed, so these levels are reference zones rather than precise signals.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $54.87 | July 10, 2026 close from StockAnalysis historical data and Macrotrends price history. |
| Immediate support | $54.03 to $54.46 | Investing.com classic pivot support extends down to $54.03, while its 200-day simple moving average was near $54.46 around the July 11 update. |
| Secondary support | $49.60 to $51.55 | The July 7 and July 8 lows were $50.47 and $49.61, with closes of $51.55 and $51.47. A break of this band would weaken the rebound structure. |
| Near resistance | $55.26 to $56.83 | The upper pivot reference near $55.26 and the Investing.com 50-day simple moving average near $56.83 form the first reclaim zone. |
| Major resistance | $63.20 to $71.77 | The July 1 close near $63.20, the July 1 high near $67.90, and the 52-week high near $71.77 are the larger supply zones from the failed rally. |
| Moving averages | 50-day about $56.83; 200-day about $54.46 | Investing.com values updated around July 11, 2026. StockAnalysis showed a different 50-day and 200-day feed, so confirm the calculation in a live chart before use. |
| Momentum | RSI 47.562; MACD negative 0.68; daily summary neutral | Momentum is neither deeply oversold nor bullishly confirmed. StochRSI near 17.454 was oversold, while the MACD signal remained negative. |
| Volume | About 2.29 million shares on July 10 versus 4.08 million 20-day average | The down session occurred on below-average volume according to StockAnalysis, so a higher-volume reclaim or breakdown would carry more information. |
| Volatility | Beta 1.90; ATR(14) about $1.39 | The beta and daily average true range point to materially higher price movement than the broad market. Technical levels should be treated as zones. |
| Invalidation | A close below $51.47, then $49.60 | A decisive close below the July 7 to July 8 support band would invalidate a near-term rebound setup and shift attention to the lower $40s and the fundamental earnings case. |
ALGM AI trading strategy
The ALGM AI trading strategy below is a rules-based research framework, not personal advice. It links price action with sales guidance, automotive and industrial demand, gross margin, data center mix, customer design wins, free cash flow, debt, and supply-chain indicators.
Watch for ALGM to reclaim the $55.26 to $56.83 zone on volume, then hold that area while management delivers the Q1 FY2027 sales and margin outlook. A later break above $63.20 would show that the July selloff has been repaired rather than merely paused.
A close back below $54.03 and especially below $51.47 reduces trend confidence. A guide-down, weaker bookings, or margin compression should override a price-only signal.
If price tests $54.03 to $54.46 or the $49.60 to $51.55 band while sales guidance, cash generation, and debt reduction remain intact, compare the market value with the base and bearish scenarios before treating weakness as a recovery opportunity.
Do not assume a lower price is cheap when the market is repricing negative earnings, semiconductor cycle risk, customer delays, or a lasting gross-margin problem.
Track quarterly sales, automotive versus industrial mix, xEV and ADAS growth, data center share, non-GAAP and GAAP gross margin, R&D efficiency, operating cash flow, free cash flow, total debt, inventory, customer concentration, and new product design wins.
Use the next earnings release on July 30, 2026 as a scheduled review point. A strong sales print without GAAP earnings conversion would not by itself prove that the valuation is supported.
Investment research summary
Customers pay Allegro for reliable sensing and power control inside complex electromechanical systems. Its chips help an automaker measure wheel speed and current, control motors, protect power systems, and add content to xEV and ADAS platforms. The economic model is design-in driven semiconductor revenue with repeat shipments, not a subscription business.
The moat is strongest in application-specific know-how, automotive qualification, proprietary magnetic and power technology, packaging, algorithms, and the cost of redesigning a validated component. Allegro reports more than 1,500 devices and about 1,900 patents. It serves more than 15,000 end customers, but roughly half of sales come from its top 20 customers, so diversification does not remove program risk.
The thesis fails if the semiconductor cycle turns down again, auto customers delay platforms, industrial demand stays weak, data center growth proves small or short-lived, competitors take share, or fixed manufacturing costs run ahead of sales. Third-party wafer and OSAT dependence, rare-earth and gold inputs, tariffs, China exposure, and debt service add failure paths.
Mike Doogue became CEO in February 2025 after joining Allegro in 1998 and leading technology and operations roles. Recent decisions include reorganizing sales around end markets, directing R&D toward xEV, ADAS, data center, and robotics, launching TMR and high-voltage products, and repaying $60 million of debt in FY2026. The key capital-allocation test is whether these investments produce durable GAAP earnings rather than only adjusted metrics.
Electrification, higher vehicle safety content, data center power density, robotics, and industrial automation are durable themes that fit Allegro products. The company says data center sales reached 10% of FY2026 revenue and 14% in Q4, while robotics revenue more than doubled from a small base. These are attractive demand vectors, but they remain exposed to auto production, customer budgets, technology routes, and competition.
The stock price implies a large recovery because trailing GAAP PE is unavailable while forward PE is 53.48x, price to sales is 11.49x, and price to FCF is about 81.9x. The audited base scenario is close to the current price, which means the margin of safety is limited. A safer setup would require either a lower price or clear evidence that gross margin and GAAP EPS are moving toward the long-term model.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ALGM quote | $54.87 close on July 10, 2026; day range $53.48 to $56.00 | StockAnalysis historical data and Macrotrends price history | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization verification | $10.22 billion from $54.87 x 186.31 million shares; financial_rigor.py deviation versus $10.22 billion reported market cap was 0.03% | Pineify financial_rigor.py and StockAnalysis market cap | July 12, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 186.31 million shares; June 10 proxy reported 186,309,064 shares and StockAnalysis showed 186.31 million | Allegro 2026 proxy statement and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 revenue | $890.096 million, up 22.8% from $725.006 million in FY2025; the 10-K and StockAnalysis differed by less than 0.01% | Allegro FY2026 annual report and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Revenue mix | Automotive $628.561 million, or about 70.6%; industrial and other $261.535 million, up 37.8% year over year | Allegro FY2026 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| Product mix | Magnetic sensors $538.538 million; power integrated circuits $351.558 million, up 40.4% year over year | Allegro FY2026 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2026 profitability | GAAP gross margin 46.3%, operating income $18.487 million, and net loss attributable to Allegro $14.897 million; non-GAAP gross margin was 49.4% | Allegro FY2026 annual report and FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and debt | Cash and equivalents $168.753 million; 10-K total debt $287.276 million; company reported net debt of about $116 million after FY2026 debt repayments. StockAnalysis reports $305.91 million under a different standardized debt definition, a source gap of about 6.5%, so the 10-K is used here. | Allegro FY2026 annual report and StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash flow | Operating cash flow $163.069 million, capital expenditure $38.176 million, and free cash flow $124.89 million in FY2026 | Allegro FY2026 annual report and StockAnalysis cash flow data | July 12, 2026 |
| R&D investment | R&D expense $205.804 million, or 23.1% of FY2026 sales, up 14.6% year over year | Allegro FY2026 annual report and StockAnalysis financials | July 12, 2026 |
| Customer concentration | More than 15,000 end customers; about half of sales from the top 20 customers; no end customer exceeded 10% of sales in FY2026 | Allegro FY2026 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
| Current valuation | Forward PE 53.48x, price to sales 11.49x, price to FCF 81.85x, EV to sales 11.64x, and PEG 1.29x | StockAnalysis statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 FY2027 outlook | Company outlook for $245 million to $255 million sales and 50% to 51% non-GAAP gross margin for the quarter ending June 26, 2026 | Allegro FY2026 results release | July 12, 2026 |
| Technical reference | RSI 47.562, MACD negative 0.68, 50-day SMA $56.83, 200-day SMA $54.46, and classic pivot $54.65 on the July 11 technical update | Investing.com ALGM technical analysis | July 12, 2026 |
| Business and technology footprint | More than 30 years of automotive experience, more than 1,500 devices, and about 1,900 patents; company describes itself as a leader in magnetic sensing | Allegro company profile and FY2026 annual report | July 12, 2026 |
This ALGM page is an informational research tool, not investment advice, a recommendation, or a promise of returns. Forecasts are scenario ranges based on available data and stated assumptions and may be wrong. Prices, technical levels, company guidance, and financial data can change after the July 12, 2026 cutoff. Verify current information and consider a qualified professional before making financial decisions.
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