Assurant, Inc. research snapshot
AIZ AI stock analysis currently reads Assurant, Inc. as a focused specialty insurer and protection-services platform with strong Global Lifestyle earnings, improved Global Housing catastrophe comparisons, high cash generation, and active buybacks. At the July 8, 2026 data cutoff, AIZ traded near $280.11 with a verified market capitalization near $13.88 billion. The setup is constructive, but the stock is near a 52-week high and still depends on catastrophe losses, client retention, mobile-device cycles, lender-placed housing results, and disciplined capital allocation. This page uses public data and scenarios, not a guaranteed forecast, and is not investment advice.
Current price
$280.11
Market cap
$13.88 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Quality specialty insurer with execution and catastrophe risk
Trend status
Bullish but overbought above major moving averages
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 8, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Assurant helps partners protect connected devices, autos, homes, renters, and commercial equipment, earning value from embedded distribution, service operations, underwriting, and investment income. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from partner integrations, claims and servicing scale, program data, regulatory licenses, product know-how, and long client relationships, but large partners can pressure economics. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Keith Demmings has emphasized Global Lifestyle growth, capital flexibility, buybacks, and expansion into new markets. Execution should be judged by client retention, underwriting discipline, and capital returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $12.81 billion and GAAP net income was $872.7 million in the company release, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 11.3% to $3.420 billion and net income rose 87% to $274.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $280.11, AIZ traded near 14.36x TTM EPS, 2.37x book value, 9.56x free cash flow, and a 1.26% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | AIZ was above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with RSI near 76.2. That supports trend strength but also flags overbought risk. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include catastrophe losses, reserve error, mobile device cycles, partner concentration, regulation, reinsurance availability, investment marks, and pressure from large clients. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because insurance earnings and valuation multiples can reset after loss events or client changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business quality and cash flow are visible, but the stock already prices in a cleaner outlook after a strong move. | Medium |
AIZ AI stock forecast
The AIZ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $280.11 quote, $19.51 TTM EPS, 49.55 million shares, and a range of specialty-insurance earnings multiples. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $228, a base area near $335, and a bullish area near $416 before dividends. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$405 to $425
More likely if Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA keeps compounding near management expectations, Housing catastrophe losses stay contained, client launches scale profitably, buybacks reduce share count, and the market values earnings near 16x.
$325 to $345
More likely if EPS compounds near 7% annually, Global Lifestyle remains the growth engine, Housing normalizes without severe reserve issues, and investors keep valuing AIZ near 14x earnings.
$220 to $235
More likely if catastrophe losses rise, a large partner relationship weakens, mobile trade-in economics slow, regulatory costs increase, or the earnings multiple compresses toward 11x.
AIZ AI technical analysis
AIZ AI technical analysis is bullish but stretched as of the July 8, 2026 data cutoff. StockAnalysis listed a July 7 close of $280.11, a 50-day moving average of $252.80, a 200-day moving average of $231.68, and RSI of 76.20, while Investing.com also showed buy signals on the 50-day and 200-day averages.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $280.11 | StockAnalysis listed AIZ at $280.11 after the July 7, 2026 close, with Robinhood showing the same price snapshot. |
| Near support | $274 to $280 | Recent closes around $274.14 and $279.48 define the first support band after the late-June and early-July breakout. |
| Intermediate support | $252.80 to $259.71 | StockAnalysis listed the 50-day average at $252.80, while Investing.com showed the 200-day average near $259.71 in its technical snapshot. |
| Long-term support | $231.68 | StockAnalysis listed the 200-day moving average at $231.68, a deeper trend reference if the breakout fails. |
| Near resistance | $280.86 to $284.12 | The 52-week high area and July 7 intraday high mark the first resistance zone for follow-through buyers. |
| Momentum | RSI 76.20 | RSI above 70 signals strong momentum but also raises the chance of a pullback or failed breakout. |
| Volume | 257.25K versus 395.46K average | Robinhood showed July 7 volume below average, so price strength did not come with unusually heavy participation. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.55 | StockAnalysis listed beta at 0.55, but insurer-specific loss events can still cause sharp single-stock moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $252.80, then $231.68 | A close below the 50-day average would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average would force a broader trend reassessment. |
AIZ AI trading strategy
The AIZ AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a specialty insurer trading near a high after strong Q1 results. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, fresh filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch whether AIZ can hold the $274 to $280 breakout area and clear the $280.86 to $284.12 resistance zone without negative earnings, catastrophe, or client-retention news.
A close below $252.80 or a failed breakout after Q2 earnings should invalidate the short-term momentum setup.
If RSI cools and AIZ pulls toward the 50-day average without a fundamental warning, compare the pullback with Q2 guidance, adjusted EBITDA excluding catastrophes, cash flow, and buyback pace.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because specialty insurers can gap after catastrophe losses, reserve revisions, or partner contract news.
Track Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA, Global Housing catastrophe losses, net earned premiums, fees and other income, holding-company liquidity, share repurchases, debt, free cash flow, and client pipeline conversion.
Reduce confidence if growth depends mainly on one-time gains, favorable reserve development, or multiple expansion rather than recurring partner programs and underwriting profit.
Investment research summary
Assurant lets large partners embed protection, insurance, repair, replacement, and servicing programs into devices, vehicles, housing, renters, and commercial equipment. Customers pay because loss handling and replacement risk are easier to outsource than manage alone.
The moat is strongest in partner integrations, program administration, data, claims operations, regulatory licenses, scale, and service logistics. It narrows if partners internalize protection economics or competitors underprice programs.
The thesis fails if catastrophe losses or reserves are mispriced, a major partner leaves, mobile trade-in values decline, reinsurance costs rise, regulation limits pricing, or management buys back stock aggressively at peak earnings.
Management has prioritized Global Lifestyle growth, Housing profitability, holding-company liquidity, dividends, and repurchases. The key test is whether capital allocation stays disciplined while the stock trades near a high.
Assurant sits at the intersection of device protection, auto service contracts, lender-placed insurance, renters, and embedded protection. These categories benefit from connected-device dependence and risk outsourcing, but they are exposed to regulation, inflation, and partner bargaining power.
At about 14.36x TTM EPS and 2.37x book value, AIZ is not priced as a distressed insurer. Margin of safety depends on durable Lifestyle growth, normalized catastrophe losses, free cash flow, and whether the current multiple already reflects the improved outlook.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIZ price | $280.11 close on July 7, 2026 | StockAnalysis quote snapshot | July 8, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.88 billion, verified as $280.11 x 49.55 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 49.55 million from StockAnalysis and 49,547,637 shares outstanding at May 1, 2026 in the Q1 2026 10-Q | StockAnalysis statistics and Assurant Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.81 billion total revenue, cross-validated against StockAnalysis and SEC data | StockAnalysis and Assurant 2025 Form 10-K | July 8, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $872.7 million in the company release, cross-checked against StockAnalysis rounded earnings of $865.0 million | Assurant FY2025 results release | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and net income | $3.420 billion revenue and $274.1 million net income | Assurant Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment growth | Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA rose 20% to $236.7 million; Global Housing adjusted EBITDA rose 111% to $236.7 million | Assurant Q1 2026 earnings release | July 8, 2026 |
| Cash, short-term investments, and debt | $1.592 billion cash, $329.8 million short-term investments, and $2.208 billion debt at March 31, 2026 | Assurant Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | July 8, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | 14.36x PE, 2.37x PB, 9.56x P/FCF, 1.26% dividend yield, and 18.02% ROE | StockAnalysis statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | July 8, 2026 |
| Technical trend inputs | RSI 76.20, 50-day moving average $252.80, 200-day moving average $231.68 | StockAnalysis statistics | July 8, 2026 |
This AIZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, filings, technical snapshots, and valuation assumptions, and they can be wrong.
