Assurant, Inc. research snapshot
AIZ AI stock analysis reads Assurant, Inc. as a focused specialty insurer and protection-services platform with record Q1 2026 Global Lifestyle earnings, lower catastrophe comparisons in Global Housing, high cash generation, active buybacks, and a raised 2026 outlook. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, AIZ closed near $279.19 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization near $13.83 billion and a consensus analyst price target near $293. The setup is constructive, but the stock is near a 52-week high and still depends on catastrophe losses, client retention, mobile-device cycles, lender-placed housing results, and disciplined capital allocation, with Q2 2026 earnings scheduled for August 4, 2026. This page uses public data and scenarios, not a guaranteed forecast, and is not investment advice.
Current price
$279.19
Market cap
$13.83 billion
AI score
73 / 100
Rating
Quality specialty insurer with execution and catastrophe risk
Trend status
Bullish uptrend above key moving averages, momentum cooling after a strong run
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Assurant helps partners protect connected devices, autos, homes, renters, and commercial equipment, earning value from embedded distribution, service operations, underwriting, and investment income. | Medium-high |
| Moat | The moat comes from partner integrations, claims and servicing scale, program data, regulatory licenses, product know-how, and long client relationships, but large partners can pressure economics. | Medium |
| Management | CEO Keith Demmings has emphasized Global Lifestyle growth, capital flexibility, buybacks, and new client expansion, and raised the 2026 outlook after record Q1 2026 results. Execution should be judged by client retention, underwriting discipline, and capital returns. | Medium-high |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue was about $12.81 billion and GAAP net income was $872.7 million, while Q1 2026 revenue rose 11.3% to about $3.42 billion and GAAP net income rose 87% to $274.1 million. | High |
| Valuation | At $279.19, AIZ traded near 14.31x trailing EPS, 13.23x forward EPS, 2.36x book value, 9.53x free cash flow, and a 1.26% dividend yield. | High |
| Technical trend | AIZ was above its 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 59.04 and 14-day ADX near 33.5. That supports trend strength, but momentum has cooled from an overbought reading and the stock is just below its 52-week high. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks include catastrophe losses, reserve error, mobile device cycles, partner concentration, regulation, reinsurance availability, investment marks, and pressure from large clients, plus a stock price near record levels. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and audited calculations. Lower for exact price outcomes because insurance earnings and valuation multiples can reset after loss events, Q2 results, or client changes. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. The business quality and cash flow are visible, but the stock already prices in a cleaner outlook after a strong move and a consensus price target near $293. | Medium |
AIZ AI stock forecast
The AIZ AI stock forecast uses scenario math around the $279.19 quote, the 2026 adjusted EPS estimate near $21.07, 49.55 million shares, and a range of specialty-insurance earnings multiples. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $232, a base area near $336, and a bullish area near $421 before dividends, using EPS growth of 0%, 7%, and 10% and exit multiples of 11x, 13x, and 15x. These are scenario ranges, not promises.
$405 to $430
More likely if Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA keeps compounding near the 10% underlying-growth framing, Housing catastrophe losses stay contained, Q2 2026 delivers a clean beat, client launches scale profitably, buybacks reduce share count, and the market values earnings near 15x.
$325 to $345
More likely if adjusted EPS compounds near 7% annually, Global Lifestyle remains the growth engine, Housing normalizes without severe reserve issues, and investors keep valuing AIZ near 13x forward earnings.
$225 to $240
More likely if catastrophe losses rise, a large partner relationship weakens, mobile trade-in economics slow, regulatory costs increase, Q2 earnings disappoint, or the earnings multiple compresses toward 11x.
AIZ AI technical analysis
AIZ AI technical analysis is bullish but extended as of the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $279.19 on July 31, 2026, above its 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 59.04, 14-day ADX near 33.5 confirming trend strength, and a 52-week high of $284.64 still overhead.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $279.19 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both listed AIZ at $279.19 after the July 31, 2026 close, and the market cap math was verified with the financial_rigor.py tool. |
| Near support | $274 to $278 | The 20-day moving average was near $277.82 on Barchart, so the low-to-mid $270s form the first pullback support zone after the June and July advance. |
| Intermediate support | $266.20 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both listed the 50-day moving average near $266.20, a key reference for trend health. |
| Long-term support | $237.24 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart both listed the 200-day moving average near $237.24, a deeper trend reference if the advance fails. |
| Near resistance | $284.64 | The 52-week high of $284.64 is the immediate overhead target after the stock backed off from the highs in late July. |
| Momentum | RSI 59.04, ADX 33.53 | 14-day RSI near 59.04 has cooled from an overbought reading near 76 in early July, while 14-day ADX near 33.5 still confirms a trending move. |
| Volume | About 325K to 350K average | StockAnalysis.com listed 20-day average volume near 325,155 and Barchart near 349,835, so breakout quality should be checked against recent participation. |
| Volatility | 5-year beta 0.55, 14-day historical volatility near 15% | Beta near 0.55 is low, but insurer-specific loss events and the August 4, 2026 earnings report can still cause sharp single-stock moves. |
| Invalidation | Close below $266.20, then $237.24 | A close below the 50-day moving average near $266.20 would weaken the short-term setup. A break below the 200-day average near $237.24 would force a broader trend reassessment. |
AIZ AI trading strategy
The AIZ AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework for a specialty insurer trading near a 52-week high after record Q1 2026 results and before an August 4, 2026 earnings report. It is not personal advice and should be paired with live quotes, fresh filings, position sizing, and risk controls.
Watch whether AIZ can hold the $274 to $278 area and clear the $284.64 52-week high without negative earnings, catastrophe, or client-retention news around Q2 2026 results.
A close below $266.20 or a failed attempt at the high after the August 4 earnings report should invalidate the short-term momentum setup.
If RSI keeps cooling and AIZ pulls toward the 50-day moving average without a fundamental warning, compare the pullback with Q2 results, adjusted EBITDA excluding catastrophes, cash flow, and buyback pace.
Do not average down without a maximum loss rule because specialty insurers can gap after catastrophe losses, reserve revisions, partner contract news, or a weak earnings print.
Track Global Lifestyle adjusted EBITDA, Global Housing catastrophe losses, net earned premiums, fees and other income, holding-company liquidity, share repurchases, debt, free cash flow, and client pipeline conversion.
Reduce confidence if growth depends mainly on one-time gains, favorable reserve development, or multiple expansion rather than recurring partner programs and underwriting profit.
Investment research summary
Assurant lets large partners embed protection, insurance, repair, replacement, and servicing programs into devices, vehicles, housing, renters, and commercial equipment. Customers pay because loss handling and replacement risk are easier to outsource than manage alone.
The moat is strongest in partner integrations, program administration, data, claims operations, regulatory licenses, scale, and service logistics. It narrows if partners internalize protection economics or competitors underprice programs.
The thesis fails if catastrophe losses or reserves are mispriced, a major partner leaves, mobile trade-in values decline, reinsurance costs rise, regulation limits pricing, or management buys back stock aggressively near a 52-week high.
Management raised the 2026 outlook after record Q1 2026 results and has prioritized Global Lifestyle growth, Housing profitability, holding-company liquidity, dividends, and repurchases. The key test is whether capital allocation stays disciplined while the stock trades near record levels.
Assurant sits at the intersection of device protection, auto service contracts, lender-placed insurance, renters, and embedded protection. These categories benefit from connected-device dependence and risk outsourcing, but they are exposed to regulation, inflation, and partner bargaining power.
At about 14.31x trailing EPS, 13.23x forward EPS, and 2.36x book value, AIZ is not priced as a distressed insurer. Margin of safety depends on durable Lifestyle growth, normalized catastrophe losses, free cash flow, and whether the current multiple already reflects the improved outlook and a consensus target near $293.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AIZ price | $279.19 close on July 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart quote snapshots | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $13.83 billion, verified as $279.19 x 49.55 million shares | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 49.55 million from StockAnalysis.com, down 1.59% year over year | StockAnalysis.com statistics share statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $12.81 billion, up 7.89% from $11.88 billion | StockAnalysis.com income statement and Assurant 2025 Form 10-K | August 2, 2026 |
| FY2025 GAAP net income | $872.7 million | StockAnalysis.com income statement and Assurant FY2025 results release | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 results | GAAP net income $274.1 million, up 87%; adjusted EBITDA $441.5 million, up 56%; diluted GAAP EPS $5.41, up 91% | Assurant Q1 2026 earnings release, May 5, 2026 | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 segment adjusted EBITDA | Global Lifestyle $236.7 million, up 20%; Global Housing $236.7 million, up 111%; ex-catastrophe Global Housing $261.1 million, down 3% | Assurant Q1 2026 earnings release segment results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue and premiums | Net earned premiums, fees and other income from Global Lifestyle and Global Housing totaled $3.28 billion, up 11%; total Q1 2026 revenue rose 11.3% to about $3.42 billion | Assurant Q1 2026 earnings release and Q1 2026 Form 10-Q | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM financial profile | Revenue $13.16 billion, up 9.02%; net income about $1.00 billion; diluted EPS $19.55; free cash flow $1.45 billion | StockAnalysis.com income statement and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| Cash, short-term investments, and debt | About $1.92 billion cash and short-term investments and $2.21 billion total debt at March 31, 2026, a net debt position of about $0.62 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics and balance sheet | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment revenue mix, TTM | Connected Living $5.63 billion, Global Automotive $4.20 billion, Homeowners $2.25 billion, Renters and Other $0.59 billion | StockAnalysis.com financials segment breakdown | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation metrics | 14.31x trailing PE, 13.23x forward PE, 1.05x PS, 2.36x PB, 9.53x P/FCF, 1.26% dividend yield, 18.02% ROE | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy with an average price target of $293 across 7 analysts, low $274, median $295, and high $310 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and analyst ratings | August 1, 2026 |
| Recent analyst target updates | Piper Sandler $290, KBW $270 to $310, Morgan Stanley $285 to $300, Truist $310, BMO $248 to $274 | StockAnalysis.com forecast latest forecasts | August 1, 2026 |
| 2026 and 2027 consensus estimates | FY2026 revenue estimate $13.86 billion with adjusted EPS $21.07, FY2027 revenue $14.79 billion with adjusted EPS $22.50 | StockAnalysis.com forecast financial forecast | August 1, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.51 million shares short, 3.05% of shares outstanding, 3.85 days to cover | StockAnalysis.com statistics short selling | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day SMA near $266.20, 200-day SMA near $237.24, RSI near 59.04, 14-day ADX near 33.5, 52-week high $284.64 | StockAnalysis.com statistics and Barchart technical snapshots | August 1, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | Q2 2026 results scheduled for August 4, 2026, after market close | StockAnalysis.com overview important dates | August 1, 2026 |
This AIZ AI stock analysis is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available public data, filings, technical snapshots, and valuation assumptions as of the stated cutoff date, and they can be wrong. Market data can change quickly after earnings, loss events, or macro moves.
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