Archer-Daniels-Midland Company research snapshot
ADM AI stock analysis reads Archer-Daniels-Midland as a recovering agricultural processor and merchandiser with a real U.S. biofuels policy tailwind, a raised 2026 guidance range, and improving Nutrition momentum, offset by commodity margin swings, a price that sits above the analyst consensus target, and a history of governance and accounting scrutiny. At the August 2, 2026 data cutoff, ADM closed near $79.27 on July 31, 2026, with a verified market capitalization of about $38.20 billion. Q2 2026 results are scheduled for August 4, 2026, after this page data cutoff. This page is informational research and not investment advice.
Current price
$79.27
Market cap
$38.20 billion
AI score
63 / 100
Rating
Cyclical recovery with a biofuel policy tailwind, fairly valued on forward earnings
Trend status
Long-term uptrend above the 200-day moving average with a short-term pullback below the 20-day and 50-day averages
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | ADM connects farmers, grain flows, oilseed crushing, sweeteners, starches, ethanol, flavors, and animal nutrition customers through a global asset network. It is a hard-to-replace food and feed infrastructure company. | High |
| Moat | The moat is mostly scale, logistics depth, origination relationships, processing assets, and risk management. It is real but tied to asset efficiency and commodity flows rather than to pricing power. | Medium-high |
| Management | Juan Luciano remains chair, president, and CEO, and Jeff Rowe was named executive vice president and chief operating officer on July 20, 2026. Management raised 2026 guidance after Q1, but 2024 to 2025 accounting and restructuring history keeps governance scrutiny elevated. | Medium |
| Financial trend | FY2025 revenue fell to $80.269 billion and net earnings to about $1.08 billion. Q1 2026 improved to $20.49 billion revenue and $298 million net earnings, with 2026 adjusted EPS guidance raised to $4.15 to $4.70. | High |
| Valuation | At $79.27, trailing P/E is about 35.5x because 2025 GAAP earnings were depressed, while forward P/E is about 14.5x to 16.5x depending on the consensus estimate used, and P/FCF is near 8x. | Medium |
| Technical trend | ADM closed below its 20-day and 50-day moving averages but above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 41.7. That is a long-term uptrend with a short-term pullback. | Medium |
| Risk level | Key risks are commodity margin compression, biofuel rule changes, trade and tariff disruptions, Nutrition execution, governance or control questions, and returns on capital that still trail the cost of capital. | Medium-high |
| AI confidence | High for descriptive facts and cross-checked math. Lower for future returns because ADM earnings can change quickly with crop flows, crush margins, energy policy, and Q2 results due August 4, 2026. | High data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Medium certainty. ADM is a durable global food and feed infrastructure business, but the stock already prices a solid 2026 recovery and needs guidance delivery to justify the current level. | Medium |
ADM AI stock forecast
The ADM AI stock forecast is scenario-based around the $79.27 quote and the raised 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.15 to $4.70. The audited three-year framework produced a bearish area near $38, a base area near $63, and a bullish area near $94 before dividends using EPS growth of 0%, 6%, and 12% with exit multiples of 8x, 11x, and 14x on a $4.80 starting EPS. Actual ranges below also reflect the $60 to $95 analyst target spread.
$90 to $100
More likely if 2026 adjusted EPS lands near or above the $4.70 top of guidance, crush and ethanol margins stay constructive through Q2, Nutrition keeps recovering, U.S. biofuel obligations hold, and the stock reclaims the $85 to $88.46 zone on volume.
$62 to $75
More likely if ADM earns near the guidance midpoint around $4.40, investors hold a moderate 11x to 12x multiple on normalized earnings, and the stock keeps trading near or slightly below the $75.30 average analyst target.
$38 to $55
More likely if crush margins roll over, biofuel policy benefit fades, trade disruptions hit export flows, Nutrition recovery stalls, working capital absorbs cash, or Q2 2026 results disappoint on August 4.
ADM AI technical analysis
ADM AI technical analysis starts from the $79.27 July 31, 2026 close used at the August 2, 2026 data cutoff. Barchart showed ADM below its 20-day moving average near $82.47 and its 50-day near $80.19, but above its 100-day near $76.56 and its 200-day near $69.58, with 14-day RSI near 41.7 and 14-day ADX near 23.9. Because this static page does not fetch request-time chart data, moving averages and volume should be confirmed in a live chart before use.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $79.27 | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart showed ADM at $79.27 at the July 31, 2026 close, used for this August 2 static page. |
| Near support | $76.50 to $77 | The 100-day moving average was near $76.56, the first support zone under the current price. |
| Next support | $69.50 to $70 | The 200-day moving average was near $69.58, a major long-term trend support that has underpinned the 2025 to 2026 recovery. |
| Near resistance | $80 to $82.50 | The 50-day moving average near $80.19 and the 20-day near $82.47 form the immediate overhead band. |
| Next resistance | $85 to $88.46 | The upper boundary is the recent 52-week high zone near $88.46, with overhead near $85. A reclaim of this band would restore the medium-term uptrend. |
| 50-day moving average | About $80.19 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 50-day average near $80.19, just above the July 31 close. |
| 200-day moving average | About $69.58 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com both reported the 200-day average near $69.58, well below the current price and still rising on the long-term recovery. |
| Momentum | Neutral with a short-term bearish tilt | 14-day RSI near 41.7 is neutral, while 14-day ADX near 23.9 with the negative directional index above the positive index points to a short-term pullback rather than a breakdown. |
| Volume | About 3.4 to 3.5 million average shares | 20-day average volume was near 3.4 to 3.5 million shares. Reclaiming resistance needs volume confirmation because ADM is a lower-beta, earnings-cycle stock. |
| Volatility | Moderate to elevated | 14-day ATR was near $2.16, about 2.7% of price, and 14-day historic volatility near 27%, so position sizing should allow for normal commodity-stock swings around the August 4 report. |
| Invalidation | Close below $76.50 | A decisive close below the 100-day moving average would weaken the short-term setup; a close below the 200-day near $69.58 would put the long-term recovery trend at risk. |
ADM AI trading strategy
The ADM AI trading strategy is a rules-based research framework. It is not personalized advice and should be paired with position sizing, live technical checks, fresh filings, and awareness of commodity, biofuel, and Q2 earnings news.
Wait for ADM to reclaim the 50-day moving average near $80.19 and the 20-day near $82.47 on volume, then look for a move toward the $85 to $88.46 zone with stable crush, ethanol, and Nutrition results.
A close below $76.50, a failed reclaim of the moving averages, or a poor Q2 report on August 4, 2026 should invalidate the setup.
If ADM pulls back toward the $76.50 to $77 support or the $69.50 to $70 zone without a business thesis break, compare the price reaction with Q2 results, segment operating profit, 2026 guidance, and trade policy news.
Do not average down without a predefined maximum loss, because depressed commodity margins can last longer than a single quarter and Q2 is a binary near-term event.
Track Ag Services and Oilseeds margins, U.S. biofuel obligations and ethanol policy, Carbohydrate Solutions profit, Nutrition recovery, cost savings, free cash flow, dividends, buyback pace, and returns on invested capital.
Reduce confidence if price strength is driven mainly by multiple expansion while GAAP earnings, ROIC, or cash flow quality remain weak, or if guidance is not repeated at Q2.
Investment research summary
ADM is paid to source, move, process, hedge, and transform agricultural commodities into food, feed, fuel, industrial, and nutrition inputs that customers need at scale, with about 77% of TTM revenue from Ag Services and Oilseeds.
ADM has scale economics, logistics depth, origination relationships, risk systems, processing know-how, and customer contracts. The moat is real but tied to asset efficiency and global trade flows more than to brand pricing power.
The thesis can fail if commodity spreads compress, biofuel rules shift, trade flows break, Nutrition under-delivers, governance issues return, or capital stays trapped in low-return assets. The reverse test is why two major banks still target $60 to $74.
Juan Luciano has led ADM since 2015 and remains chair, president, and CEO. Jeff Rowe joined as EVP and chief operating officer in July 2026. The key test is converting biofuel tailwinds and cost savings into higher returns while putting the 2024 to 2025 issues firmly behind the company.
ADM sits in food security, feed protein, renewable fuels, and ingredient supply chains. These are durable needs, but earnings are cyclical. The U.S. 2026 and 2027 biofuel obligations finalized in March 2026 provide a clearer regulatory framework for crush and ethanol.
At $79.27, the market prices in roughly the consensus 2026 adjusted EPS of $4.40 to $4.80. Margin of safety improves if guidance is delivered, cash flow stays strong, and the stock pulls back toward support without a structural thesis break.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| ADM price | $79.27 at the July 31, 2026 close | StockAnalysis.com and Barchart quote snapshots | August 1, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $38.20 billion, verified as $79.27 x 481.96 million shares, cross-checked against StockAnalysis.com and Macrotrends | financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding | 481.96 million shares, down about 0.21% year over year | StockAnalysis.com share statistics | August 1, 2026 |
| FY 2025 revenue and net earnings | $80.269 billion revenue and $1.078 billion net earnings attributable to ADM; EPS $2.23 | ADM FY2025 results and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| FY 2025 cash flow and capex | $5.452 billion operating cash flow, $1.248 billion capex, $4.204 billion free cash flow | ADM FY2025 results and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $20.490 billion, up from $20.175 billion in Q1 2025 | ADM Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 earnings and adjusted EPS | $298 million net earnings attributable to ADM; $0.62 reported EPS and $0.71 adjusted EPS | ADM Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| 2026 adjusted EPS guidance | $4.15 to $4.70, raised from $3.60 to $4.25 after Q1 2026, on U.S. biofuel policy clarity | ADM Q1 2026 results and WSJ coverage | August 2, 2026 |
| Segment operating profit, Q1 2026 | Total segment operating profit $764 million: Ag Services and Oilseeds $273 million, Carbohydrate Solutions $356 million, Nutrition $135 million | ADM Q1 2026 results | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM revenue by segment | Ag Services and Oilseeds $61.895 billion, Carbohydrate Solutions $10.726 billion, Nutrition $7.500 billion | StockAnalysis.com segment breakdown | August 2, 2026 |
| Balance sheet | $624 million cash and equivalents plus short-term marketable securities, $10.66 billion total debt, about $10.03 billion net debt as of the latest snapshot | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet and statistics | August 2, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | $5.944 billion operating cash flow, $1.151 billion capex, $4.793 billion free cash flow, $9.94 free cash flow per share | StockAnalysis.com cash flow statement | August 2, 2026 |
| Valuation check | 35.5x trailing EPS, 14.5x forward PE, 1.68x book value, 7.97x free cash flow, 2.62% dividend yield | financial_rigor.py valuation verification | August 2, 2026 |
| Dividend | Annualized $2.08 per share with 53 years of dividend growth; quarterly cash dividend of 52.0 cents declared in May 2026 | ADM dividend declaration and StockAnalysis.com | August 2, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Hold with an average target of $75.30 across 11 analysts, ranging from $60 to $95; UBS targets $95 while Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan target $60 and $74 | StockAnalysis.com forecast and ratings | August 1, 2026 |
| Technical snapshot | 50-day moving average near $80.19, 200-day near $69.58, 14-day RSI near 41.7, 14-day ADX near 23.9, 14-day ATR near $2.16 | Barchart and StockAnalysis.com technical snapshots | July 31, 2026 |
| Leadership | Juan R. Luciano is chair of the board, president, and chief executive officer; Jeff Rowe was named executive vice president and chief operating officer on July 20, 2026 | ADM leadership profile and press release | August 2, 2026 |
This ADM AI stock analysis page is an informational research tool only. It is not investment advice, financial advice, a rating, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Forecast scenarios are based on available data at the stated cutoff date and can be wrong if earnings, policy, commodity prices, trade flows, market liquidity, or company disclosures change. ADM reports second quarter 2026 results on August 4, 2026, after this page data cutoff, and those results are not reflected in the numbers above.
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