Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. research snapshot
AADX AI stock analysis reads Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. The stock closed at $19.46 on August 3, 2026, up 0.76 or 4.06% from the $18.70 July 31 close, within a session range near $18.32 to $19.69, carrying a market capitalization near $3.32 billion verified as $19.46 times about 170.74 million shares outstanding. Applied Aerospace designs and manufactures mission-critical subsystems for space and defense platforms, serving three end markets: Space and Launch Systems, Defense Aviation and Airborne Systems, and C5ISR and Precision Strike Systems. FY2025 revenue grew 24.8% to $498.8 million with a GAAP net loss of $17.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $117.9 million at a 23.6% margin; pro forma FY2025 revenue including the CBI acquisition was $604.3 million. Q1 2026 revenue rose 21.0% to $134.4 million with Adjusted EBITDA of $26.5 million at a 19.8% margin. The balance sheet carried about $1,017.8 million in total indebtedness as of March 31, 2026, a Debt to Equity ratio near 4.45, and interest coverage near 0.80. Seven analysts rate the stock Strong Buy with an average price target of $25.14, and the first public earnings report is scheduled for August 12, 2026. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$19.46 at the August 3, 2026 close, up 0.76 or 4.06% from the $18.70 July 31 close, within a session range of $18.32 to $19.69 after opening at $18.62
Market cap
$3.32 billion
AI score
52 / 100
Rating
High-growth defense supplier with a strong backlog and a Strong Buy analyst consensus, constrained by heavy leverage, negative earnings, deeply negative free cash flow, and a short public trading history
Trend status
Recovering after a volatile two-month post-IPO period that ranged from $16.57 to $24.24; AADX now trades near $19.4, above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages, with 14-day RSI near 52
Data cutoff (updated monthly)
August 4, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Applied Aerospace builds mission-critical subsystems for space and defense platforms. Revenue grew 24.8% in FY2025 and 21.0% in Q1 2026 with high sole-source content and a $1.06 billion backlog, but GAAP earnings are negative and the business carries substantial debt from its private equity backed formation. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from sole and single source positions on about 87% of revenue, specialized manufacturing facilities that are costly to qualify, customer relationships averaging 39 years, and IP enabled process expertise, all reinforced by high barriers to adding new suppliers for defense and space programs. | Medium-high |
| Management | The leadership team combines aerospace manufacturing and defense experience, but the company is controlled by Greenbriar, which owns about 81% of shares after the offering, and it has no public operating track record yet. Capital allocation around debt reduction vs further M&A is a key item to watch. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $399.8 million in FY2024 to $498.8 million in FY2025, with pro forma revenue of $604.3 million after CBI. Net loss improved from $34.8 million to $17.0 million. Q1 2026 revenue was $134.4 million, up 21.0% year over year. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.6% in FY2025 but declined to 19.8% in Q1 2026. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $19.46, AADX trades at about 6.3x price to sales (TTM), 8.2x EV to sales, and 43.8x EV to EBITDA, elevated relative to mature defense primes. The stock has no positive GAAP EPS, so P/E is not applicable; forward P/E near 66.8 and the FY2026 EPS consensus of $0.11 imply the market expects a return to profitability. | Low-medium |
| Technical trend | AADX traded at $19.46 on August 3, 2026 after a volatile two-month post-IPO period that ranged from $16.57 to $24.24. The stock sits above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $18.37 and $18.82, with 14-day RSI near 52, a signal that the recovery is intact but not yet overbought. | Low |
| Risk level | Key risks are substantial debt of about $1.02 billion (Debt to Equity near 4.45, interest coverage near 0.80), negative GAAP earnings, deeply negative free cash flow, Greenbriar control of about 81%, a limited float of 43.89 million shares, concentration in defense spending cycles, and no public earnings history before the August 12, 2026 report. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Low-medium confidence. The S-1 financials, backlog, analyst targets, and market data are reliable, but the company has zero reported quarters of public earnings and limited trading history, so earnings quality, organic growth trajectory, and post-IPO trading patterns are difficult to assess. | Low-medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. AADX operates in a growing defense market with strong relationships and a Strong Buy analyst consensus, but heavy leverage, negative earnings, negative free cash flow, and sponsor control create a wide range of potential outcomes. | Low |
AADX AI stock forecast
The AADX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $19.46 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires defense budget growth, backlog and pipeline conversion, margin expansion toward pro forma levels, and debt reduction. The base case assumes steady defense demand tracking the FY2026 consensus revenue of about $676 million. The bearish case assumes defense spending pressures, contract losses at recompetition, a disappointing August 12 report, negative free cash flow, or sponsor selling after lockup.
$26 to $30
More likely if U.S. and allied defense budgets accelerate, AADX converts its $3.8 billion weighted pipeline and $1.06 billion backlog at a high rate, Adjusted EBITDA margins expand toward the 23% pro forma level, debt is reduced from IPO proceeds and free cash flow, and the August 12, 2026 earnings report beats expectations.
$21 to $25
More likely if defense demand stays stable, sole-source contracts continue, revenue tracks toward the FY2026 consensus of $676 million and the FY2027 consensus of $789 million, Adjusted EBITDA margins stay near 20% to 23%, and the stock moves toward the $25.14 analyst average price target.
$14 to $18
More likely if defense budget growth slows, AADX loses one or more sole-source contracts at recompetition, the August 12, 2026 report disappoints, deeply negative free cash flow forces additional borrowing, interest costs compress margins, or Greenbriar sells a large block of shares after the lockup.
AADX AI technical analysis
AADX AI technical analysis is neutral to slightly constructive as of the August 4, 2026 data cutoff. After a volatile post-IPO period, the stock fell from a July 1 high near $24.24 to a July 20 low near $16.57, then recovered to close at $19.46 on August 3. Price sits above its 5-day and 20-day moving averages near $18.37 and $18.82, 14-day RSI is near 52, and 14-day ADX near 15 signals a weak trend. Historic volatility near 92% and 14-day ATR near $1.66 make this a high volatility stock with a thin public history, so levels should be treated as preliminary. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $19.46 | August 3, 2026 close, up 0.76 or 4.06% from the $18.70 July 31 close, within a session range of $18.32 to $19.69 after opening at $18.62. |
| 5-day moving average | $18.37 | Barchart reported the 5-day moving average near $18.37 on August 3, 2026. The current price sits above it, which supports the short-term recovery. |
| 20-day moving average | $18.82 | Barchart reported the 20-day moving average near $18.82. Price above this level keeps the medium-term bias positive for a stock with limited history. |
| Near support | $18.30 to $18.70 | The early August consolidation zone around the 5-day moving average. A hold here keeps the recovery intact after the July low. |
| Secondary support | $17.00 to $17.30 | The late July pullback zone before the August rebound. A break below this area would retest the 52-week low. |
| 52-week low support | $16.57 | The July 20, 2026 low. A sustained close below this level would make a new post-IPO low and invalidate the recovery. |
| Near resistance | $20.00 | The June 3, 2026 IPO price. A reclaim of this level would signal buyers defending the offering valuation. |
| Secondary resistance | $21.00 to $22.00 | The June and early July trading zone below the high. A close above this band would open the path toward the 52-week high. |
| 52-week high resistance | $24.24 | The July 1, 2026 peak. A breakout above this level with volume would signal renewed momentum and align with the higher analyst price targets. |
| Momentum | 14-day RSI near 52 (Barchart) and 52.35 (StockAnalysis), neutral | RSI in the neutral zone after the recovery from the July low. Not yet overbought, so there is room for further upside if catalysts land. |
| Volume | 20-day average volume near 938,000 (StockAnalysis) to 958,000 (Barchart) shares | Volume spiked near 4.0 million shares at the June 3 debut and has since settled lower. Recent rebounds on rising volume support the recovery. |
| Volatility | 14-day ATR near $1.66 (about 8.5% of price), historic volatility near 92% | Position sizing should account for very wide daily swings typical of a recently IPOed stock with a limited float. |
| Invalidation | Close below $17.00, then $16.57 | A sustained close below $17.00 would weaken the recovery. A close below $16.57 would make a new post-IPO low and invalidate the current bullish structure. |
AADX AI trading strategy
The AADX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines defense-industry catalysts, technical confirmation from limited price history, position sizing appropriate for a high volatility, thin float IPO stock, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for AADX to close above $20.00, the June 3 IPO price, on above-average volume, or to establish a higher low above $18.30 after the $16.57 July low, before treating the recovery as confirmed.
Reduce exposure if the stock closes back below $18.30 or breaks $17.00 with volume, given the thin float, high volatility, and the overhang from the 81% Greenbriar position.
Monitor the first public earnings report on August 12, 2026, plus defense contract awards, backlog updates, and debt reduction announcements. The first few reported quarters will be critical for establishing credibility after the IPO.
Reduce exposure if the company misses revenue or EBITDA expectations, reports unexpected margin compression, or announces additional debt-funded acquisitions that increase leverage.
If AADX pulls back toward $17.00 to $18.00 without negative company-specific news, assess whether the decline reflects broader defense sector weakness or lockup and float concerns before considering a re-entry.
Do not average down solely because the stock trades below the $20.00 IPO price. The limited trading history means support levels are untested. Define maximum position size before entry.
Investment research summary
Applied Aerospace designs, engineers, and manufactures mission-critical subsystems and assemblies for space and defense platforms, covering propellant tanks, engine nozzles, fairings, solar arrays, wings, landing gear, fuel tanks, radar antennas, missile bodies, and electronic enclosures. Customers pay because these components are hard to source elsewhere and roughly 87% of revenue comes from sole or single source positions, mostly with government agencies and blue-chip prime contractors.
The moat is built on sole and single source positions covering about 87% of FY2025 revenue and 86% of pro forma revenue, specialized manufacturing facilities that are costly and time consuming to replicate, customer relationships averaging 39 years, and IP enabled process expertise in composite, metallic, and polymer manufacturing. The moat is reinforced by the high barriers to qualifying new suppliers for defense and space programs.
The thesis can fail if defense spending cycles turn down, key sole-source contracts are lost at recompetition, the roughly $1.02 billion debt burden restricts investment or forces additional borrowing as free cash flow stays negative, the August 12, 2026 first earnings report disappoints, the private equity sponsor (Greenbriar, about 81% owner) prioritizes a dividend or secondary sale over reinvestment, or CBI acquisition integration fails to deliver expected synergies. The limited float creates additional risk if sponsor shares enter the market after lockup.
CEO James William "Trip" Ferguson III leads a team that combines aerospace manufacturing experience with defense technology scaling, including COO Kevin Bidlack, CFO Jeff McRae, and Chief Growth Officer Christopher Rogers. The company is controlled by Greenbriar Equity Group at about 81% ownership after the offering, creating a controlled-company structure under NYSE rules. Key-person risk exists around executives with deep customer relationships, and capital allocation around debt reduction, M&A, and organic investment will be critical to monitor.
The space and defense industry is in a multi-year modernization cycle driven by U.S. and allied defense budget increases, next-generation platforms, space-based sensing, and demand for scaled, qualified supply chain partners. The industry trend is structurally favorable for established mid-tier defense suppliers with production capacity, though results remain tied to government budget cycles and contract timing.
At the $19.46 cutoff price, AADX trades at about 6.3x price to sales (TTM), 8.2x EV to sales, and 43.8x EV to EBITDA, elevated relative to mature defense primes typically near 1.5x to 3x sales. The forward P/E near 66.8 and the FY2026 EPS consensus of $0.11 imply expectations of a return to profitability, while the FY2026 revenue consensus of $676 million implies 35.6% growth. There is limited margin of safety given the debt load, negative earnings, deeply negative free cash flow, and lack of public track record.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AADX price | $19.46 close on August 3, 2026, up 4.06%, within a session range of $18.32 to $19.69 | StockAnalysis.com real-time quote and price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.32 billion, verified as $19.46 x about 170.74 million shares | StockAnalysis.com statistics and financial_rigor.py market cap verification | August 4, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.30 billion | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Shares outstanding / float | 170.74 million shares outstanding; 43.89 million float | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $498.8 million (24.8% YoY growth) | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss / Adjusted EBITDA | $17.0 million GAAP net loss; $117.9 million Adjusted EBITDA (23.6% margin) | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Pro forma FY2025 (incl CBI) | $604.3 million revenue; $49.2 million pro forma net loss; $141.9 million pro forma Adjusted EBITDA (23.5%) | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue / Adjusted EBITDA | $134.4 million revenue (21.0% YoY); $26.5 million Adjusted EBITDA (19.8% margin) | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Total indebtedness | About $1,017.8 million as of March 31, 2026 | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $15.92 million as of March 31, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com balance sheet | August 4, 2026 |
| Contract backlog | $1,060.1 million as of March 31, 2026 | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Weighted pipeline | About $3.8 billion as of March 31, 2026 | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Sole/single-source revenue | About 87% of FY2025 revenue and 86% of pro forma revenue | SEC S-1 prospectus | August 4, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | 6.28x P/S, 66.79x forward P/E, 14.02x P/B, 8.24x EV/Sales, 43.78x EV/EBITDA, 73.10x EV/EBIT | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Balance sheet risk ratios | Debt/Equity 4.45, Debt/EBITDA 10.59, interest coverage 0.80, current ratio 2.09, Altman Z-Score 0.52 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| TTM cash flow | Operating cash flow -$94.06 million; free cash flow -$113.72 million | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Analyst consensus | Strong Buy from 7 analysts, average price target $25.14 (+29.32%), range $23 to $30, updated July 1, 2026 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| FY2026 and FY2027 consensus | FY2026 revenue $676.15 million (+35.56%) and EPS $0.11; FY2027 revenue $788.60 million (+16.63%) and EPS $0.42 | StockAnalysis.com forecast | August 4, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $16.57 to $24.24 (about two months of trading since the June 3, 2026 IPO) | StockAnalysis.com quote and price history | August 4, 2026 |
| Technical indicators | 5-day MA $18.37, 20-day MA $18.82, 14-day RSI 52.87, 14-day ADX 14.76, 14-day ATR $1.66 (about 8.5%), historic volatility near 92% | Barchart technical analysis | August 4, 2026 |
| Short interest | 1.57 million shares, 0.92% of shares outstanding, 3.58% of float, days to cover 1.36 | StockAnalysis.com statistics | August 4, 2026 |
| Next earnings date | August 12, 2026 (Q2 2026, before market open) | StockAnalysis.com quote and Business Wire conference call announcement | August 4, 2026 |
This AADX AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of August 4, 2026 and can be wrong. The company has about two months of public trading history and no reported public quarterly earnings as of this data cutoff; the first report is scheduled for August 12, 2026. Key financial data is sourced from the IPO prospectus, which contains forward-looking statements and pro forma adjustments that may differ from actual results. The heavy debt load, negative GAAP earnings, and deeply negative free cash flow mean traditional valuation metrics may not be directly comparable to profitable public companies.
Design trading strategies visually with 10+ indicators. Set entry/exit conditions and risk management, then generate Pine Script code with no coding required.
Filter and discover stocks based on market cap, dividend yield, P/E ratio, sector, and more. Screen thousands of stocks with real-time data.
Smart AI-driven stock selection with fundamental screening, analyst estimates, and key metrics. Filter by P/E, market cap, dividends, and more.
