Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. research snapshot
AADX AI stock analysis currently reads Applied Aerospace & Defense Inc. as a recently public (June 3, 2026) vertically integrated manufacturer of mission-critical subsystems for space and defense platforms. At the July 12, 2026 data cutoff, AADX last closed near $20.59 with a market capitalization of about $3.52 billion. The company serves three end markets - Space and Launch Systems, Defense Aviation and Airborne Systems, and C5ISR and Precision Strike Systems - with approximately 87% of revenue from sole- or single-source contracts. FY2025 revenue grew 24.8% to $498.8 million, though the company reported a net loss of $17.0 million and Adjusted EBITDA of $117.9 million. Pro forma FY2025 revenue including the CBI acquisition was $604.3 million. The balance sheet carries approximately $1.02 billion in total indebtedness, resulting in a Debt/Equity ratio near 445%. This page uses scenarios, technical levels, and source-backed facts. It is informational research, not investment advice.
Current price
$20.59
Market cap
$3.52 billion
AI score
42 / 100
Rating
Newly public aerospace and defense manufacturer with strong backlog and sole-source positions, but high leverage, negative earnings, and limited trading history constrain near-term conviction
Trend status
Trading modestly above the $20.00 IPO price after a post-IPO pullback from the June 2026 high near $24.24
Data cutoff (updated weekly)
July 12, 2026
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
| Dimension | Conclusion | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Business quality | Applied Aerospace builds mission-critical subsystems for space and defense platforms. Revenue is growing (24.8% YoY in FY2025) with high sole-source content, but GAAP net income is negative and the business carries substantial debt from its private-equity-backed formation. | Medium |
| Moat | The moat comes from decades of trusted relationships with blue-chip primes (Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, NASA), sole/single-source positions on 87% of revenue, specialized manufacturing facilities that are hard to replicate, and deep material science and IP-enabled process expertise. | Medium-high |
| Management | The leadership team combines aerospace and defense expertise with public company experience, but key executives are tied to the private-equity sponsor (Greenbriar) that controls approximately 81% of shares post-IPO. The CEO and board face capital allocation decisions around debt reduction vs. further M&A. | Low-medium |
| Financial trend | Revenue grew from $399.8 million (FY2024) to $498.8 million (FY2025), with pro forma revenue of $604.3 million after the CBI acquisition. Net loss improved from $34.8 million to $17.0 million over the same period. Q1 2026 revenue was $134.4 million, up 21.0% YoY. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 23.6% in FY2025 but declined to 19.8% in Q1 2026. | Medium |
| Valuation | At $20.59, AADX trades at approximately 6.10x P/S (TTM), 7.69x EV/Revenue (TTM), and 143.6x EV/EBITDA (TTM). These multiples are elevated relative to mature defense primes but may be justified by the growth rate and sole-source contract quality. The company does not have positive GAAP EPS, so P/E is not applicable. Forward P/E of 114.94x implies the market expects a return to profitability. | Low-medium |
| Technical trend | AADX debuted at $20.00 on June 3, 2026, rallied to a 52-week high of $24.24, and has since pulled back toward the $20.50 area. The stock is trading near its IPO price with limited price history to establish meaningful trend patterns. | Low |
| Risk level | Key risks are substantial debt ($1.02 billion, 445% Debt/Equity), negative GAAP earnings, private-equity sponsor control (81% ownership), limited public float, concentration in defense spending cycles, acquisition integration risk, and limited public company track record for financial reporting. | Medium |
| AI confidence | Low-medium confidence. The S-1 financials and backlog data are reliable, but the company has zero quarters of public operating history, making earnings quality, organic growth trajectory, and post-IPO trading patterns difficult to assess. | Low-medium data confidence |
| Investment certainty | Low certainty. AADX operates in a structurally growing defense market with strong customer relationships, but the high leverage, negative earnings, sponsor control, and lack of public track record create a wide range of potential outcomes. | Low |
AADX AI stock forecast
The AADX AI stock forecast uses scenario ranges around the $20.59 cutoff price. It does not claim that AI can predict a specific future price. The bullish case requires defense budget growth, sole-source contract retention, debt reduction, and margin expansion toward management targets. The base case assumes steady defense demand with gradual margin improvement but elevated interest expense. The bearish case assumes defense spending pressures, contract recompetition losses, or debt servicing constraints.
$28 to $35
More likely if U.S. defense spending accelerates, AADX converts its $3.8 billion weighted pipeline at a high rate, Adjusted EBITDA margins expand toward the 25%+ range, debt is reduced from IPO proceeds and free cash flow, and the stock receives multiple expansion as earnings turn positive.
$18 to $24
More likely if defense demand remains stable, sole-source contracts continue, revenue grows at 10% to 15% annually, Adjusted EBITDA margins stay near 20% to 23%, and the stock trades in a range reflecting the high debt load and limited public float.
$12 to $17
More likely if defense budget growth slows, AADX loses one or more sole-source contracts at recompetition, the high debt load restricts operational flexibility, interest expense compresses margins, or the private-equity sponsor sells a large block of shares into the market.
AADX AI technical analysis
AADX AI technical analysis starts from the $20.59 close used for this July 12 static page. The stock has less than two months of trading history, so technical levels are based on the post-IPO price range and should be treated as preliminary. Because this page does not fetch request-time market data, traders should confirm levels on a live chart before acting.
| Level | Value | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $20.59 | Latest verified close used for this page as of the July 12, 2026 data cutoff. |
| Near support | $19.50 to $20.00 | The IPO price zone. A hold above $20.00 may be viewed as maintaining the IPO valuation floor. |
| Secondary support | $17.00 to $18.00 | The 52-week low zone. A sustained break below this level would indicate a breakdown below the post-IPO trading range. |
| Near resistance | $22.00 to $22.50 | Near-term resistance after the pullback from the 52-week high. This area represents a prior consolidation zone. |
| 52-week high resistance | $24.00 to $24.24 | The IPO-driven peak. A breakout above this level with volume would suggest renewed momentum and potential analyst upgrades. |
| Momentum | RSI near 40 to 45, neutral to slightly oversold | RSI in the neutral-to-low range after the decline from the 52-week high, suggesting the stock is not yet oversold. |
| Volume | About 362,000 shares (recent), average near 2.5 million | Volume has declined from the elevated IPO-day levels. Sustained low volume near support may signal a lack of selling pressure. |
| Volatility | ATR 14 near $1.50 to $2.00 | Position sizing should account for above-average daily swings typical of a recently IPOed stock with limited float. |
| Invalidation | Close below $19.00, then $17.00 | A sustained close below $19.00 would break the first post-IPO support zone. A break below $17.00 would challenge the entire post-IPO price structure. |
AADX AI trading strategy
The AADX AI trading strategy is a rules-based framework, not personalized advice. It combines defense-industry catalysts, technical confirmation from limited price history, position sizing appropriate for a thinly traded IPO stock, and clear invalidation levels.
Look for AADX to hold above $20.00 on above-average volume and positive defense budget or contract award news before treating the IPO floor as confirmed support.
If AADX closes below $19.50 on above-average volume, the IPO floor thesis is weakened, and position reduction should be considered given the limited float and potential sponsor selling.
Monitor quarterly earnings releases (first expected in Q3 2026), defense contract awards, backlog updates, and debt reduction announcements. The first few earnings reports as a public company will be critical for establishing credibility.
Reduce exposure if the company misses revenue guidance, reports unexpected margin compression, or announces additional debt-funded acquisitions that increase leverage.
If AADX pulls back toward $17.00 to $18.00 without negative company-specific news, assess whether the decline reflects broader defense sector weakness or IPO lockup expiration concerns before considering a re-entry.
Do not average down solely because the stock trades below the IPO price. The limited trading history means support levels are untested. Define maximum position size before entry.
Investment research summary
Applied Aerospace designs, engineers, and manufactures mission-critical subsystems and assemblies for space and defense platforms. Customers including Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, RTX, NASA, and the U.S. Department of Defense rely on Applied for components used in launch vehicles, satellites, fixed-wing aircraft, rotorcraft, missile systems, and C5ISR platforms.
The moat is built on decades of sole- and single-source contract positions (87% of revenue), specialized manufacturing infrastructure that is costly and time-consuming to replicate, deep customer relationships averaging 39 years, and IP-enabled process expertise in materials science and precision manufacturing. The moat is reinforced by the high barriers to qualifying new suppliers for defense and space programs.
The thesis can fail if defense spending cycles turn down, key sole-source contracts are lost at recompetition, the $1.02 billion debt burden restricts the ability to invest in growth or weather a downturn, the private-equity sponsor (Greenbriar, 81% owner) prioritizes a dividend or secondary sale over reinvestment, or post-IPO acquisition integration fails to deliver expected synergies. The limited public float also creates the risk that any sponsor selling could pressure the stock.
The leadership team combines aerospace manufacturing expertise with experience scaling defense technology platforms. However, the company is controlled by Greenbriar Equity Group (81% ownership post-IPO), creating a controlled-company structure under NYSE rules. Key-person risk exists around the CEO and several senior executives with deep customer relationships. Capital allocation decisions around debt reduction, M&A, and organic investment will be critical to monitor.
The space and defense industry is experiencing a multi-year modernization cycle driven by U.S. and allied defense budget increases, the shift toward next-generation platforms (NGAD, CCA, Golden Dome missile defense, space-based sensing), and growing demand for reliable supply chain partners with scaled manufacturing capacity. The industry trend is structurally favorable for established mid-tier defense suppliers, though cyclical risks remain tied to government budget cycles.
At the $20.59 cutoff price, AADX trades at about 6.10x P/S and 7.69x EV/Revenue on trailing data, which is elevated relative to mature defense primes (typically 1.5x to 3x P/S) but may be reasonable for a high-growth defense supplier. The forward P/E of 114.94x implies expectations of significant earnings recovery. The EV/EBITDA of 143.6x reflects the current GAAP net loss and high interest expense. There is limited margin of safety given the debt load, negative earnings, and lack of public track record.
Source-backed data
Every metric below includes a source and last verification date.
| Metric | Value | Source | Last verified |
|---|---|---|---|
| AADX price | $20.59 close on July 10, 2026 | Yahoo Finance via API | July 12, 2026 |
| Market capitalization | $3.52 billion, verified as $20.59 x ~171 million shares | Market cap verification via financial_rigor.py | July 12, 2026 |
| Enterprise value | $4.96 billion | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 revenue | $498.8 million (24.8% YoY growth) | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Pro forma FY2025 revenue (incl CBI) | $604.3 million | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 net loss | $17.0 million GAAP net loss | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA | $117.9 million (23.6% margin) | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Q1 2026 revenue | $134.4 million (21.0% YoY growth) | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Total indebtedness | $1,017.8 million as of March 31, 2026 | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Cash and equivalents | $15.92 million | Yahoo Finance balance sheet data | July 12, 2026 |
| Contract backlog | $1,060.1 million as of March 31, 2026 | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Weighted pipeline | ~$3.8 billion as of March 31, 2026 | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
| Valuation multiples | 6.10x P/S (TTM), 7.69x EV/Revenue, 143.6x EV/EBITDA, 114.94x forward P/E, 16.84x Price/Book | Yahoo Finance statistics | July 12, 2026 |
| 52-week price range | $17.08 to $24.24 (only ~6 weeks of trading) | Yahoo Finance via API | July 12, 2026 |
| Sole/single-source revenue | Approximately 87% of FY2025 revenue | S-1 prospectus | July 12, 2026 |
This AADX AI stock analysis is an informational tool for research and education only. It is not investment advice, a recommendation, or a guarantee of future performance. Forecast ranges are scenarios based on available data as of July 12, 2026 and can be wrong. The company has less than two months of public trading history, and key financial data is sourced from the IPO prospectus, which contains forward-looking statements and pro forma adjustments that may differ from actual results. The high debt load and negative GAAP earnings mean that traditional valuation metrics may not be directly comparable to profitable public companies.
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