SMCI technical analysis
SMCI Technical Analysis
Analysis date
July 15, 2026
Market
NasdaqGS (USD)
Daily cutoff
July 14, 2026
Reliability
Passed
Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.
Data verification
SMCI Data Verification
Cross-validating the latest completed daily bar across independent sources.
- Symbol
- SMCI
- Market
- NasdaqGS
- Currency
- USD (US Dollar)
- Latest completed bar
- July 14, 2026
No adjustment factor (adjusted close equals raw close, factor 1.0). No stock splits or dividend adjustments affecting the analysis period.
| Source | Latest Close | Date | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance Chart API (primary) | 27.65 | July 14, 2026 | - | Verified |
| Google Finance (independent) | 27.65 | July 14, 2026 (previous close) | 0.00% | Verified |
Bottom line
SMCI Technical Analysis Summary
SMCI shows a bearish trend on both daily and weekly timeframes. The daily price at 27.65 trades below SMA20 (29.39), SMA50 (33.45), and SMA200 (34.38), with a bearish alignment of all SMAs. The weekly chart confirms the downtrend with price below all major averages. The daily RSI14 at 41.92 remains below the midline, reflecting bearish momentum, while the MACD histogram at -0.05 is near zero, suggesting the downside momentum may be stabilizing. Key resistance sits at 29.39 (SMA20) and 33.45 (SMA50), with support at 25.41 (20-day low). A break below 25.41 would signal further downside toward the 52-week low of 19.48.
Multi-timeframe dashboard
Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard
Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.
Daily (July 14, 2026)
- Trend
- Bearish. Price at 27.65 is below SMA20 (29.39), SMA50 (33.45), and SMA200 (34.38). All SMAs are in bearish descending order (SMA20 < SMA50 < SMA200), confirming a sustained downtrend on the daily timeframe.
- Momentum
- Bearish with early stabilization. RSI14 at 41.92 is below the 50 midline, in bearish territory but not oversold. MACD at -1.90 is below the signal line at -1.85, with the histogram at -0.05 approaching zero. The flattening histogram suggests selling pressure may be easing.
- Volatility
- Elevated. ATR14 at 2.31 (8.36% of price) indicates relatively wide daily ranges typical of a volatile stock. Bollinger Bands (24.73 to 34.06) are wide, with price near the lower band, reflecting persistent downside pressure.
- Volume
- Below average. Latest daily volume of 22,410,958 is 43.6% of the 20-period average (51,344,918), suggesting reduced participation after the sharp selloff from higher levels.
Assessment
Daily timeframe shows a clear bearish bias with price trading below all key SMAs in descending order. The near-zero MACD histogram signals that downside momentum may be flattening, but no reversal confirmation exists. Price remains below the lower Bollinger Band midpoint, reflecting sustained weakness. A move above the SMA20 at 29.39 would be the first sign of a potential trend change.
Weekly (July 6, 2026 week)
- Trend
- Bearish. Price at 28.31 is below SMA20 (30.36), SMA50 (35.93), and SMA200 (37.34). All weekly SMAs are in bearish alignment, confirming the intermediate-term downtrend remains intact.
- Momentum
- Bearish. RSI14 at 45.58 is below the 50 midline, indicating bearish momentum on the weekly timeframe. MACD at -0.85 is below the signal line at -0.82, with the histogram at -0.03 near zero, reflecting stabilizing but still negative momentum.
- Volatility
- Very high. ATR14 at 6.27 (22.15% of price) reflects extreme weekly ranges, characteristic of a high-beta stock with significant price swings. Bollinger Bands (18.47 to 42.24) are exceptionally wide, reflecting the massive volatility SMCI has experienced over the past year.
- Volume
- Below average. Weekly volume of 165,841,900 is 73.9% of the 20-week average (224,474,945).
Assessment
The weekly timeframe confirms a bearish trend with price below all key SMAs and bearish SMA alignment. The RSI at 45.58 remains in bearish territory. The MACD histogram near zero suggests the rate of decline may be slowing, but no bullish reversal signal has been generated. The massive weekly Bollinger Band width underscores the extreme volatility profile. The 52-week decline of approximately 56% from the high of 62.36 highlights the magnitude of the selloff.
Key indicators
SMCI Key Technical Indicators
RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Indicator | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 41.92 | 45.58 |
| MACD (12, 26, 9) | -1.90 / -1.85 / -0.05 | -0.85 / -0.82 / -0.03 |
| ATR (14) | 2.31 (8.36%) | 6.27 (22.15%) |
| Bollinger Bands (20, 2) | 24.73 - 34.06 | 18.47 - 42.24 |
| SMA (20) | 29.39 | 30.36 |
| SMA (50) | 33.45 | 35.93 |
| SMA (200) | 34.38 | 37.34 |
Price structure
SMCI Price Structure and Returns
Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.
| Metric | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| Current Price | 27.65 | 28.31 |
| 1-Period Return | -0.04% | +4.00% |
| 5-Period Return | +5.33% | -32.01% |
| 20-Period Return | -9.23% | -12.68% |
| 60-Period Return | -2.64% | -38.66% |
| 252-Period Return | -43.85% | +673.71% |
| 52-Week Low | 19.48 | 19.48 |
| 52-Week High | 62.36 | 62.36 |
| 52-Week Position | 19.05% | 20.59% |
Key levels
SMCI Support and Resistance Levels
Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.
| Level | Daily | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| 20-Period High | 36.80 | 51.40 |
| 20-Period Low | 25.41 | 19.48 |
| 60-Period High | 51.40 | 62.36 |
| 60-Period Low | 25.41 | 19.48 |
Scenarios
SMCI Technical Scenarios
Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.
Bullish
Trigger
Price breaks above SMA20 resistance at 29.39 with strong volume, followed by a move toward SMA50 at 33.45.
Invalidation
Price falls below the 20-day low of 25.41.
What to watch
Daily MACD histogram turning positive and RSI crossing above 50 would signal momentum shift.
Range-Bound
Trigger
Price consolidates between 25.41 support and 29.39 resistance, with declining volatility and volume.
Invalidation
A decisive break of either boundary with above-average volume.
What to watch
RSI staying between 30 and 50; MACD histogram hovering near zero.
Bearish
Trigger
Price breaks below 25.41 (20-day low) and approaches the 52-week low of 19.48.
Invalidation
Price reclaims SMA20 (29.39) and holds above it.
What to watch
Sustained closes below 25.41; weekly MACD histogram turning more negative.
Methodology
Methodology and Limitations
This technical analysis uses adjusted closing prices from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Google Finance (independent cross-validation). The daily analysis covers approximately 2 years (501 completed bars) ending July 14, 2026. The weekly analysis covers approximately 5 years (261 completed bars) ending the week of July 6, 2026. Prices are adjusted for dividends and stock splits using the adjusted close/raw close ratio. Volume data is from the primary source and may not match other data providers. Technical indicators include SMA, RSI, MACD, ATR, and Bollinger Bands using standard parameters. Key levels are identified from recent swing highs and lows. Technical analysis studies historical price patterns and does not constitute investment advice. It should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions.
Frequently Asked Questions
This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Data sourced from Yahoo Finance (primary) and Finviz (independent cross-validation). Data cutoffs: daily July 14, 2026, weekly July 6, 2026 week. Generated July 15, 2026.
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