MPC technical analysis

MPC Technical Analysis

Analysis date

August 4, 2026

Market

NYSE (USD)

Daily cutoff

August 3, 2026

Reliability

Passed

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Data verification

MPC Data Verification

Checking the latest completed daily bar for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated.

Symbol
MPC
Market
NYSE
Currency
USD (US Dollar)
Latest completed bar
August 3, 2026

Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Date and closing-price consistency checks passed for the latest completed daily bar.

Validation seriesLatest CloseDateDifferenceStatus
Calculation series307.03August 3, 2026-Verified
Verification series307.03August 3, 20260.00%Verified

Bottom line

MPC Technical Analysis Summary

MPC pulled back to close at 307.03 on August 3, 2026 after touching a 52-week high of 326.92, giving back part of a strong multi-month advance. The daily trend is still bullish with price above SMA20 (303.45), SMA50 (275.02), and SMA200 (221.33), but the MACD histogram has turned negative at -1.36 and RSI has cooled to 59.17 from overbought, signaling a pause in the rally. The weekly chart confirms the longer-term uptrend with price at 316.47 above SMA20 (256.95), SMA50 (214.60), and SMA200 (160.06), though the weekly RSI at 74.50 is overbought. Key support sits at 303.45 (SMA20) and then 261.57 (20-day low). Key resistance is at 326.92 (20-day high and 52-week high). A close back above 326.92 would resume the uptrend, while a break below the SMA20 would signal a deeper pullback.

Multi-timeframe dashboard

Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard

Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.

Daily (August 3, 2026)

Trend
Bullish. Price at 307.03 is above SMA20 (303.45), SMA50 (275.02), and SMA200 (221.33), with the moving averages in bullish alignment. Price has pulled back from the 52-week high of 326.92 but remains in an established uptrend.
Momentum
Neutral to slightly bearish in the short term. RSI14 at 59.17 has cooled from overbought to neutral. MACD at 11.73 has moved below the signal line at 13.09 with a negative histogram of -1.36, indicating fading upside momentum after the sharp rally.
Volatility
Moderate. ATR14 at 9.10 (2.96% of price) reflects normal daily ranges. Bollinger Bands run from 275.45 to 331.46, and the close at 307.03 sits just above the middle band, consistent with a pullback within a strong uptrend.
Volume
Slightly above average. Latest volume of 2,102,500 is about 103% of the 20-day average (2,049,565), suggesting modest selling pressure on the pullback day.

Assessment

The daily chart is in a confirmed uptrend but is digesting a sharp move. After reaching a 52-week high of 326.92, price has pulled back toward the SMA20 at 303.45. The negative MACD histogram and neutral RSI point to a short-term pause rather than a trend reversal while price holds above the SMA20. Holding 303.45 keeps the near-term uptrend intact, with 261.57 (20-day low) as the next support. A decisive move back above 326.92 would signal resumption of the rally.

Weekly (July 27, 2026 week)

Trend
Bullish. Price at 316.47 is above SMA20 (256.95), SMA50 (214.60), and SMA200 (160.06), with all moving averages sloping upward and aligned bullishly, confirming a strong long-term uptrend.
Momentum
Bullish but overbought. RSI14 at 74.50 is above 70, indicating overbought conditions after the extended advance. MACD at 26.35 remains above the signal line at 20.95 with a positive histogram of 5.40, keeping momentum in favor of the uptrend.
Volatility
Moderate. ATR14 at 18.79 (5.94% of price) reflects normal weekly ranges for a large-cap refiner.
Volume
Below average. Weekly volume of 9,459,700 is about 83% of the 20-week average (11,450,825), indicating reduced participation during the recent advance.

Assessment

The weekly chart remains firmly bullish with all SMAs aligned and a 52-week position of 93.92%. Note that the weekly series ends with the week of July 27, so its close of 316.47 predates the August 3 pullback on the daily chart. RSI at 74.50 is overbought, suggesting the advance is extended and a consolidation phase is plausible. The positive MACD structure keeps the longer-term trend in favor of buyers, but a confirmed daily breakout above 326.92 would be needed to extend the weekly advance.

Key indicators

MPC Key Technical Indicators

RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.

IndicatorDailyWeekly
RSI (14)59.1774.50
MACD (12, 26, 9)11.73 / 13.09 / -1.3626.35 / 20.95 / 5.40
ATR (14)9.10 (2.96%)18.79 (5.94%)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)275.45 - 331.46200.22 - 313.68
SMA (20)303.45256.95
SMA (50)275.02214.60
SMA (200)221.33160.06

Price structure

MPC Price Structure and Returns

Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.

MetricDailyWeekly
Current Price307.03316.47
1-Period Return-2.98%+2.34%
5-Period Return-1.70%+24.57%
20-Period Return+14.14%+40.45%
60-Period Return+25.40%+101.51%
252-Period Return+83.94%+455.05%
52-Week Low154.97154.97
52-Week High326.92326.92
52-Week Position88.43%93.92%

Key levels

MPC Support and Resistance Levels

Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.

LevelDailyWeekly
20-Period High326.92326.92
20-Period Low261.57209.84
60-Period High326.92326.92
60-Period Low233.25154.97

Scenarios

MPC Technical Scenarios

Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.

Bullish

Trigger

Price reclaims and closes back above the 20-day and 52-week high at 326.92 on above-average volume.

Invalidation

Price closes below the 20-day low at 261.57.

What to watch

MACD histogram turning positive again on the daily chart; RSI recovering above 60 without stalling; volume expanding on up days.

Range-Bound

Trigger

Price oscillates between 261.57 (20-day low) and 326.92 (20-day high and 52-week high) while consolidating the recent advance.

Invalidation

A decisive break of either boundary on expanding volume.

What to watch

Daily MACD flattening near the signal line; RSI holding in the 40 to 65 zone; volume contracting during the consolidation.

Bearish

Trigger

Price breaks below SMA20 at 303.45 and then the 20-day low at 261.57.

Invalidation

Price reclaims the SMA20 at 303.45 and holds above it.

What to watch

MACD histogram extending further negative on the daily chart; weekly RSI rolling over below 70; volume expanding on down days.

Methodology

Methodology and Limitations

This technical analysis is calculated locally from adjusted OHLCV history. The daily series ends August 3, 2026, and the weekly series ends July 27, 2026 week. The latest completed daily bar is independently checked for date and closing-price consistency. Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Indicators include Wilder RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), SMA20/50/200, Wilder ATR(14), Bollinger Bands(20,2), relative volume, multi-period returns, and price-range levels. Support and resistance are descriptive zones, not guaranteed reversal points. Historical patterns do not predict future prices, and this page is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Market data is checked for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated. Data cutoffs: daily August 3, 2026, weekly July 27, 2026 week. Generated August 4, 2026.