CME technical analysis

CME Technical Analysis

Analysis date

August 4, 2026

Market

NasdaqGS (USD)

Daily cutoff

August 3, 2026

Reliability

Passed

Informational use only. This page is not investment advice.

Data verification

CME Data Verification

Checking the latest completed daily bar for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated.

Symbol
CME
Market
NasdaqGS
Currency
USD (US Dollar)
Latest completed bar
August 3, 2026

Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Date and closing-price consistency checks passed for the latest completed daily bar.

Validation seriesLatest CloseDateDifferenceStatus
Calculation series266.17August 3, 2026-Verified
Verification series266.17August 3, 20260.00%Verified

Bottom line

CME Technical Analysis Summary

CME Group shows a recovering but still mixed technical picture at the August 3, 2026 cutoff. On the daily chart, price at 266.17 has reclaimed SMA20 (250.62) and SMA50 (252.00), the MACD histogram is positive at 3.13, and RSI14 at 64.70 leans bullish, but the close remains below SMA200 (273.86) and the recent advance has run on below-average volume. The weekly chart has bounced 21.17% over the past five weeks from the 218.31 low, yet price still sits under SMA20 (271.50) and SMA50 (271.18) with a negative MACD histogram at -2.12 and RSI14 near the 50.28 midline. Key resistance is 270.00 at the 20-day high, followed by SMA200 at 273.86 and the 60-day high at 306.42. Key support is 234.37 at the 20-day low, with the 218.31 60-day and 52-week low below. Bulls need a confirmed close above 270.00 to target the 200-day average; bears need a break below 234.37 to renew the downtrend toward 218.31.

Multi-timeframe dashboard

Multi-Timeframe Technical Dashboard

Comparing daily (2-year) and weekly (5-year) perspectives to identify aligned or conflicting signals.

Daily (August 3, 2026)

Trend
Mixed. Price at 266.17 is above SMA20 (250.62) and SMA50 (252.00) but below SMA200 (273.86). The recovery has pushed price back above the near-term averages, yet the close still sits under the 200-day average, so the structure is not yet a clean uptrend.
Momentum
Bullish. RSI14 at 64.70 is above neutral and approaching, but not yet in, overbought territory. MACD at 4.85 is above its signal at 1.72 with a positive histogram at 3.13, confirming upward momentum that has built over the recent rally.
Volatility
Moderate. ATR14 at 7.03 (2.64% of price). Bollinger Bands (230.99 to 270.24) place the close near the upper band after the strong advance.
Volume
Below average. Latest volume of 1,621,900 is 60.0% of the 20-period average (2,704,540), indicating reduced participation on the latest session and leaving the recovery without strong volume confirmation.

Assessment

The daily chart shows a strong recovery that has carried price above SMA20 and SMA50 with a positive MACD histogram and RSI near 65. The remaining hurdle is SMA200 at 273.86, which sits just above the 270.00 20-day high. Volume has been below average during the rally, so follow-through still needs confirmation. A close above 270.00 would open the path toward the 200-day average; a break below SMA20 at 250.62 would weaken the recovery.

Weekly (July 27, 2026 week)

Trend
Mixed. The completed weekly close at 267.79 is below SMA20 (271.50) and SMA50 (271.18) but well above SMA200 (214.52). The intermediate averages are still overhead, while the long-term uptrend remains intact.
Momentum
Neutral. RSI14 at 50.28 is right at the midline. MACD at -8.41 is below its signal at -6.29 with a negative histogram at -2.12, so weekly momentum remains negative even after the rebound.
Volatility
Elevated. ATR14 at 17.14 (6.40% of price) reflects the wide weekly ranges seen during the drawdown and the recovery.
Volume
Slightly below average. Weekly volume of 12,689,100 is 88.7% of the 20-week average (14,301,785).

Assessment

The weekly chart is recovering from the 218.31 low with a 5-week return of +21.17%, but price remains under SMA20 and SMA50 and the MACD histogram is still negative. The weekly picture only improves if the close moves back above the 271.50 area; until then this reads as a rebound within a corrective structure rather than a confirmed new uptrend.

Key indicators

CME Key Technical Indicators

RSI, MACD, moving averages, ATR, and Bollinger Bands across daily and weekly timeframes.

IndicatorDailyWeekly
RSI (14)64.7050.28
MACD (12, 26, 9)4.85 / 1.72 / 3.13-8.41 / -6.29 / -2.12
ATR (14)7.03 (2.64%)17.14 (6.40%)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)230.99 - 270.24223.71 - 319.30
SMA (20)250.62271.50
SMA (50)252.00271.18
SMA (200)273.86214.52

Price structure

CME Price Structure and Returns

Price performance across multiple lookback periods and 52-week position.

MetricDailyWeekly
Current Price266.17267.79
1-Period Return-0.60%+4.89%
5-Period Return+4.23%+21.17%
20-Period Return+13.38%-13.56%
60-Period Return-7.21%+1.91%
252-Period Return-0.63%+67.27%
52-Week Low218.31218.31
52-Week High319.82319.82
52-Week Position47.15%48.75%

Key levels

CME Support and Resistance Levels

Key price levels based on recent swing highs and lows across daily and weekly timeframes.

LevelDailyWeekly
20-Period High270.00315.12
20-Period Low234.37218.31
60-Period High306.42319.82
60-Period Low218.31218.31

Scenarios

CME Technical Scenarios

Conditions, invalidation triggers, and what to watch for each scenario.

Bullish

Trigger

Price closes above the 20-day high at 270.00 with above-average volume and then clears SMA200 at 273.86.

Invalidation

Price falls back below SMA20 at 250.62 and then under the 20-day low at 234.37.

What to watch

Volume expanding on up days; RSI holding above 60; the daily MACD histogram staying positive; a weekly close above 271.50.

Range-Bound

Trigger

Price consolidates between the 20-day low at 234.37 and the 270.00 to 273.86 resistance zone while rebuilding beneath the averages.

Invalidation

A decisive break of either boundary on rising volume.

What to watch

RSI staying between 45 and 70; volume fading; price respecting the 234.37 support and the SMA200 at 273.86 as resistance.

Bearish

Trigger

Price breaks below the 20-day low at 234.37 and moves toward the 60-day low at 218.31.

Invalidation

Price reclaims SMA20 at 250.62 and holds above it for consecutive sessions.

What to watch

The daily MACD histogram turning negative; rising downside volume; weekly RSI falling below 45.

Methodology

Methodology and Limitations

This technical analysis is calculated locally from adjusted OHLCV history. The daily series ends August 3, 2026, and the weekly series ends July 27, 2026 week. The latest completed daily bar is independently checked for date and closing-price consistency. Historical prices are adjusted for corporate actions when applicable. Indicators include Wilder RSI(14), MACD(12,26,9), SMA20/50/200, Wilder ATR(14), Bollinger Bands(20,2), relative volume, multi-period returns, and price-range levels. Support and resistance are descriptive zones, not guaranteed reversal points. Historical patterns do not predict future prices, and this page is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

This technical analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Past performance and historical patterns are not guarantees of future results. All investments carry risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Market data is checked for date and closing-price consistency before indicators are calculated. Data cutoffs: daily August 3, 2026, weekly July 27, 2026 week. Generated August 4, 2026.